持续首推【协创数据】：算力+存力+机器人大脑全面开花，坚定看2000亿+市值 #国产AI大模型井喷式发展，Agent推理时代弯道超车 2月以来，多家国产大模型厂商推出顶尖AI大模型版本，在agent推理性能和使用体验优化方面，进步显著： 2月14日，字节跳动视频生成模型Seedance2.0引发现象级传播，成为当前 AI 视频生成的SOTA标杆； 2月12日，智谱发布GLM-5 ，成为全球首个 7 持续首推【协创数据】：算力+存力+机器人大脑全面开花，坚定看2000亿+市值 #四十年一遇存储超级周期，2026业绩大年拭目以待 在AI需求爆发与供应瓶颈的共振下，存储芯片正全面进入"卖方市场"，极度短缺正显著提升供应商议价权，产业 链已开启长期合约谈判以锁定未来供应。 公司25Q3以来积极备货，并与闪迪签署晶圆保供协议，为国内头部云厂提供企业级SSD，百亿订单在手，2026业 绩释放有望大超预期。 OmniBot助力机器人"ChatGPT时刻" 2026春晚舞台上，人形机器人再次成为亮眼的中国智造名片，多家机器人轮番登场，机器人板块迎来最强催化。 公司前瞻布局机器人板块，早于2024年即推出基于NVIDIAPhy ...

Market Performance - On February 26, the Hang Seng Index closed down 384 points (1.4%) at 26,381 points, with the Hang Seng Tech Index falling 151 points (2.9%) to 5,109 points[1] - Total market turnover increased to HKD 259.3 billion from HKD 236.8 billion the previous day[1] - Net outflow of southbound funds was HKD 7.37 billion[1] Sector Highlights - The internet sector led declines, with Alibaba (9988 HK), Meituan (3690 HK), JD.com (9618 HK), and Tencent (700 HK) dropping 2%-4%[1] - The electrical equipment sector saw gains, with Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) rising 15.5%, and Harbin Electric (1133 HK) and Shanghai Electric (2727 HK) increasing by 3%-7%[1] - Hong Kong property stock Hysan Development (14 HK) fell 6.9% after reporting a 1.6% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 1.9% decrease in recurring profit[1] - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK) reported a 15% year-on-year increase in Q4 net profit, exceeding market expectations, with a full-year net profit growth of 36%[1] U.S. Market Overview - Concerns over excessive AI capital expenditure led to significant declines in tech stocks, with Nvidia (NVDA US) closing down 5.5% despite better-than-expected earnings and outlook[2] - The Dow Jones Index rose 17 points (0.03%) to 49,000, while the Nasdaq Index fell 273 points (1.2%) to 28,878, and the S&P 500 Index dropped 37 points to 6,908[2] Macro Dynamics - During the Spring Festival, major retail enterprises in China reported a 24% year-on-year increase in daily retail sales, indicating sustained consumer potential[3] - Gold and jewelry sales saw a significant increase, with daily retail sales rising 33.4% year-on-year during the same period[3] Industry Insights - The restaurant sector saw a low double-digit same-store sales growth for Guoquan (2517 HK) during the Spring Festival, with expected net profit growth of 84%-92% year-on-year[4] - Macau's gaming sector underperformed, with average daily revenue during the Spring Festival falling below market expectations, leading to declines in stocks like Sands China (1928 HK) and MGM (2282 HK) by 1.2%-1.7%[4] - The healthcare sector faced a 4.5% decline in the Hang Seng Healthcare Index, with concerns over price competition following Novo Nordisk's announcement to reduce wholesale prices of its products in the U.S.[4]

期指：节后开门红效应转弱，震荡走势 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 金 融 期 货 研 究 2026 年 2 月 27 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变动 | 持仓量 | 变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 4726.9 | ↓0.19 | | 5998.5 | | | | | | IF2603 | 4712.2 | ↓0.40 | -14.67 | 790.2 | 55890 | ↓13915 | 145477 | ↓13028 | | IF2604 | 4706.6 | ↓0.40 | -20.27 | 38.4 | 2720 | ↓67 | 3092 | ↑365 | | IF2606 | 4671.2 | ↓0.52 | -55.67 | 268.7 | 19159 | ↓6155 | 85856 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the synergy between policy support and seasonal demand, recommending investment in high-quality leading companies in the hotel and restaurant sectors [2][3] - The performance of leading restaurant and hotel stocks has been strong, driven by service consumption policy expectations and the Spring Festival consumption peak [11][12] Market Review - In January 2026, leading stocks in the A/H/U.S. markets for chain hotels and restaurants saw significant gains, with notable performers including Jiumaojiu, Guoquan, Alibaba-W, Junting Hotel, and Guming [11][12] - Jiumaojiu led the gains, with its core brand Taier showing a continued narrowing of same-store sales decline to -3% in Q4 2025, while Guoquan forecasted a robust growth in core operating profit for 2025, expected to be around 450-470 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.8-51.2% [2][11] Restaurant and Hotel Tracking - In December 2025, the overall restaurant revenue increased by 2.2% year-on-year, while revenue from above-limit restaurants decreased by 1.1% [14] - The CPI in December 2025 rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with service CPI increasing by 0.6%, indicating resilient growth [14] - For January 2026, the hotel industry saw a RevPAR increase of 30.7% year-on-year during the Spring Festival week, with occupancy rates (OCC) up by 8.1% and average daily rates (ADR) up by 13.5% [21] Restaurant Sector Insights - The tea beverage sector is expected to maintain single-digit year-on-year growth in January, supported by platform subsidies and product innovations [20] - The hot pot sector, particularly Haidilao, experienced a slight decline in same-store sales in January but is projected to see a recovery during the Spring Festival with an expected increase of over 5% [20] - Fast food chains like KFC and Pizza Hut are anticipated to maintain resilient growth, with expected single-digit increases in same-store sales [20] Hotel Sector Insights - The hotel sector's RevPAR showed resilient growth in January 2026, driven primarily by improvements in ADR, while occupancy rates remained stable [21][22] - Economic and mid-range hotels are performing similarly to the overall market, while high-end hotels are outperforming, although luxury hotels are showing weaker data [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform" rating, suggesting a focus on leading service consumption companies in 2026, with key recommendations including Haidilao, Huazhu Group-S, Guming, Guoquan, Yum China, Atour, and others [3][12]

| < W | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | NVDA.O | | | 184.900 | 量 3.60亿 股本 243亿 市盈 ™ 37.4 万得 | | | -10.660 --5.45% | 盘口 换 1.48% 市值14.5万亿 市净＂ 28.56 | | | ■ ▼ | 更多 向 五日 日K 周Ｋ 月Ｋ | | | 叠加 | 均价： 187.359 ೈ □ | | | 206.738 | 5.72% 卖1 184.930 | | | | 买1 184.880 | 50 | | | 16:00 184.920 100 | | | 195.560 | 0.000 16.00 184.920 | 27 | | | 16:00 184.920 | 20 | | | 16:00 184.920 | 20 | | | 16:00 184.920 | 25 | | 184 | 16:00 184.920 | 50 | 消息面上，英伟达近日公布了其2025财年第四季度财报，英伟达数据中心业务收入同比增长75%，达623亿美元，但约一半销售额来自超大规模客户，引 发需 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are Haotian International Investment (01341) at 72.06%, China Telecom (00728) at 71.36%, and Southern Hengsheng Technology (03033) at 70.17% [1] - The largest increases in holdings over the last five trading days were seen in the Yingfu Fund (02800) with an increase of 3.892 billion, Southern Hengsheng Technology (03033) with 3.036 billion, and Tencent Holdings (00700) with 2.099 billion [1] - The largest decreases in holdings over the last five trading days were recorded by Zijin Mining (02899) with a decrease of 706 million, China Pacific Insurance (02601) with 381 million, and Jiangxi Copper (00358) with 361 million [2] Group 1: Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - Haotian International Investment (01341) holds 7.997 billion shares, representing 72.06% [1] - China Telecom (00728) holds 9.905 billion shares, representing 71.36% [1] - Southern Hengsheng Technology (03033) holds 10.714 billion shares, representing 70.17% [1] Group 2: Recent Increases in Holdings - Yingfu Fund (02800) saw an increase of 3.892 billion, with a change of 14.644 million shares [1] - Southern Hengsheng Technology (03033) increased by 3.036 billion, with a change of 60.727 million shares [1] - Tencent Holdings (00700) increased by 2.099 billion, with a change of 4.100 million shares [1] Group 3: Recent Decreases in Holdings - Zijin Mining (02899) experienced a decrease of 706 million, with a change of 15.867 million shares [2] - China Pacific Insurance (02601) decreased by 381 million, with a change of 10.720 million shares [2] - Jiangxi Copper (00358) saw a decrease of 361 million, with a change of 8.007 million shares [2]

Group 1 - BYD Company Limited (81211), Anta Sports Products Limited (82020), and Great Wall Motor Company Limited (82333) have the highest short-selling ratios at 100.00% each [1][2] - Alibaba Group Holding Limited (09988), Ping An Insurance (Group) Company of China, Ltd. (02318), and Tencent Holdings Limited (00700) lead in short-selling amounts, with 1.503 billion, 1.32 billion, and 892 million respectively [1][2] - The highest deviation values are recorded for BYD Company Limited (43.16%), Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (80175) (40.22%), and Standard Chartered PLC (02888) (36.96%) [1][2] Group 2 - The top ten short-selling ratios include BYD Company Limited (100.00%), Anta Sports Products Limited (100.00%), and Great Wall Motor Company Limited (100.00%) [2] - The top ten short-selling amounts show Alibaba Group Holding Limited leading with 1.503 billion, followed by Ping An Insurance with 1.32 billion, and Tencent Holdings with 892 million [2] - The top ten deviation values highlight BYD Company Limited (43.16%), Geely Automobile Holdings Limited (40.22%), and Standard Chartered PLC (36.96%) [2][3]

Group 1: Currency and Investment Risks - After the Spring Festival, the Chinese yuan rapidly appreciated, leading to losses for investors who bought US dollar deposits due to exchange rate fluctuations. Interest earnings could not cover the losses from currency depreciation, and some investors even faced a reduction in principal [1][11] - The core risk of US dollar deposits lies in exchange rate volatility, with the interest rate advantage diminishing as the yuan appreciates and US dollar rates decline. Experts suggest that such products are more suitable for investors with genuine foreign currency needs or those diversifying assets, rather than for those seeking to exploit interest rate differentials [1][11] Group 2: Corporate Transactions and Strategic Moves - The Li Ka-shing family sold its core UK power network assets, UK Power Networks, for approximately HKD 110 billion. This decision was influenced by multiple strategic considerations, including avoiding regulatory tightening post-Brexit and rising sovereign risks in infrastructure [2][12] - The sale allowed the family to lock in over HKD 50 billion in book profits before significant capital expenditures related to the green transition in the power sector. The proceeds will be redirected towards global asset reallocation, focusing on Southeast Asian infrastructure and green technology, reflecting a philosophy of prioritizing cash flow safety [2][12] Group 3: Market Reactions and Performance - Nvidia's Q4 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with data center revenue growing 75% year-on-year to USD 62.3 billion. However, the stock price fell over 5% due to market concerns about revenue concentration among a few large customers, raising worries about demand concentration and potential cyclical trading [3][13] - The Nasdaq Composite Index fell nearly 1%, with significant declines in chip stocks. Nvidia's stock dropped over 3.7%, while Broadcom fell nearly 4.7%. Other major semiconductor companies, including TSMC and Micron Technology, also experienced declines ranging from 2.8% to 4.3%, indicating market apprehension towards the sector [3][14] Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market Impact - American Bitcoin, supported by the Trump family, reported a net loss of USD 59.45 million in Q4 due to a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin prices plummeting nearly 23% during the quarter. This decline adversely affected revenue and operational metrics [4][15] - Despite increasing Bitcoin holdings and favorable mining costs, the continuous drop in stock price may hinder future financing and expansion capabilities for the company [4][16] Group 5: Regulatory and Fiscal Developments - The People's Bank of China announced support for domestic banks to conduct cross-border RMB interbank financing in compliance with market demands, aiming to develop offshore markets and improve cross-border capital flow management. The notice outlines business definitions, participant scope, management requirements, and risk control principles [5][20] - As of February 25, the issuance of local government bonds has surpassed RMB 2 trillion this year, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 22%. The funds from new and refinancing bonds are expected to support major projects and alleviate risks associated with existing debts [5][21]

【财经日历】 国务院政策例行吹风会：2025年国务院部门办理全国人大代表建议和全国政协提案工作有关情况 ►►央行发布关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资业务有关事宜的通知（银发〔2026〕51号）。其 中提出，支持境内银行顺应市场需求，按照依法合规、风险可控的原则开展人民币跨境同业融资业务。 境内中资银行、外商独资银行、中外合资银行开展相关业务应由银行总行统一管理，并按照实质重于形 式的原则，将全部人民币跨境同业融资业务纳入管理范围，建立健全风险管理和内部控制机制。境内银 行向境外机构净融出人民币资金余额不得超过人民币跨境同业融资净融出余额上限。境内银行应建立内 部预警提示工作机制，当人民币跨境同业融资净融出余额达到上限的80%时，应对有关业务负责部门进 行预警提示。 ►►国家能源局新能源司司长李创军撰文表示，2026年加快修订《中华人民共和国可再生能源法》。配 合全国人大环资委修改完善可再生能源法修改草案文本，研究市场化新阶段下可再生能源可持续发展长 效机制，并以修法进一步凝聚共识，坚定不移推动可再生能源优先发展、大力发展。编制实施《可再生 能源发展"十五五"规划》。全力抓好规划编制和衔接，深入谋划"十五五 ...

Group 1: Automotive Industry - Stellantis, the global fourth-largest automotive manufacturer, reported a net loss of €22.3 billion (approximately ¥180.2 billion) for the year 2025, primarily due to €25.4 billion in extraordinary restructuring costs incurred in the second half of the year [1] - Despite the losses, Stellantis showed signs of recovery in the second half of 2025, with revenue growth and significantly improved cash flow compared to the first half [1] - The company's net revenue for 2025 was €153.5 billion, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, attributed to foreign exchange impacts and declining new car prices in the first half [1] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Industry - Changchun High-tech's subsidiary, JinSai Pharmaceutical, received approval for clinical trials of GenSci141 ointment, a drug aimed at treating male children's developmental disorders, marking a significant market opportunity as no similar products exist globally [3][4] - Following the announcement, Changchun High-tech's stock price surged over 12% within two days, reflecting strong market interest and potential for growth in the pharmaceutical sector [2] Group 3: Technology and Communication - WeChat launched a new feature allowing users to check how many chats a file has been used in, which does not duplicate storage space, addressing user concerns about storage management [6] - Meituan has applied for trademarks related to real estate, indicating a strategic move into property-related services [5] Group 4: Corporate Changes - Ctrip announced the resignation of its co-founder and president, Fan Min, along with board member Ji Qi, as part of a restructuring effort to enhance the board's professional diversity and strategic oversight capabilities [7][8] - ByteDance's valuation has risen to $550 billion, reflecting a 66% increase compared to last year's stock buyback valuation, indicating strong investor confidence in the company's growth potential [9]