Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [8] Core Insights - December sales of excavators accelerated, indicating a structural recovery opportunity in the domestic market, with a projected continued growth in the industry through 2026 [3][8] - The market's expectations for structural improvements in the industry are expected to rise, leading to a decrease in risk assessments and favorable investment opportunities for mid-cap blue-chip companies [3] - Key investment targets include: Hengli Hydraulic (601100, not rated), Liugong (000528, not rated), Zoomlion (000157, Buy), XCMG (000425, not rated), and Sany Heavy Industry (600031, not rated) [3] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales Performance - In 2025, a total of 235,300 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 17%, with domestic sales at 118,500 units (up 17.9%) and exports at 116,700 units (up 16.1%) [8] - December 2025 saw sales of 23,095 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales of 10,331 units (up 10.9%) and exports of 12,764 units (up 26.9%) [9] - The past three months have shown an increase in both domestic and export sales growth rates, reflecting an upward trend in industry prosperity and presenting short-term investment opportunities [8] Export Market Dynamics - The demand for large excavators is expected to continue, particularly for mining applications, as commodity prices rise, which may enhance the sustainability of excavator exports [8] - Major importing countries have shown a preference for larger excavators, with average tonnage exceeding 20 tons in countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia, indicating a trend towards mining applications [8] Domestic Market Trends - There are structural improvements in domestic demand, which are beneficial for internal sales growth, despite overall utilization rates being under pressure [8] - The average working hours and operating rates of excavators in December 2025 were lower than in December 2024, indicating that the recovery is not uniform across the sector [8] - The trend of replacing manual labor with small excavators is expected to continue, contributing to stable growth in demand for the industry [8]

Market Performance - The engineering machinery sector increased by 2.52% on January 9, with Shaoyang Hydraulic leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079) closed at 58.45, up 17.84% with a trading volume of 407,900 shares and a transaction value of 2.382 billion [1] - Hailun Zhe (300201) closed at 7.46, up 9.54% with a trading volume of 982,800 shares and a transaction value of 715 million [1] - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) closed at 22.28, up 3.97% with a trading volume of 1,104,200 shares and a transaction value of 2.444 billion [1] - XCMG Machinery (000425) closed at 11.80, up 3.69% with a trading volume of 947,300 shares and a transaction value of 1.116 billion [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector saw a net inflow of 127 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 56.445 million [2] - The sector had a net outflow of 183 million from speculative funds [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Key Stocks - Sany Heavy Industry (600031) had a net inflow of 88.856 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 49.819 million from speculative funds [3] - Hailun Zhe (300201) saw a net inflow of 41.161 million from institutional investors, with a small net outflow from retail investors [3] - XCMG Machinery (000425) had a net inflow of 37.036 million from institutional investors, but also faced outflows from both speculative and retail investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Bureau of Statistics released the PPI data for December 2025, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of growth, which positively impacted cyclical sectors like engineering machinery [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The engineering machinery ETF, FuGuo (516250), saw an intraday increase of 2.91% and closed with a gain of 2.33%. Since its listing on December 22, 2025, it has accumulated a total increase of 5.72% over 13 trading days [1] - Key constituent stocks such as HeZhuang Intelligent, Weichai Power, Hainan Huatie, Sany Heavy Industry, and XCMG all performed strongly, with gains exceeding 3% [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Research institutions predict a gradual recovery in PPI during the first half of 2026. Historically, when PPI transitions from negative to positive, cyclical sectors like non-ferrous metals, real estate, building materials, and machinery tend to benefit [1] - The engineering machinery ETF FuGuo (516250) closely tracks the CSI Engineering Machinery Theme Index, with 78% of its constituent stocks classified under mechanical equipment according to Shenwan's primary industry classification, focusing on complete engineering machinery and core component enterprises, making it a high-purity choice for investing in the machinery sector [1]

Group 1: Engineering Machinery Industry - In December 2025, sales of various excavators reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales of 10,331 units (up 10.9%) and exports of 12,764 units (up 26.9%) [4] - Sales of various loaders in December 2025 totaled 12,236 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 30%, with domestic sales of 5,291 units (up 17.6%) and exports of 6,945 units (up 41.5%) [4] - For the entire year of 2025, a total of 235,257 excavators were sold, marking a 17% increase year-on-year, while 116,739 units were exported (up 16.1%). Additionally, 128,067 loaders were sold, representing an 18.4% increase, with exports of 61,737 units (up 14.6%) [4] Group 2: Wind Power Industry - The wind turbine industry is expected to enter an upward profitability cycle starting in 2026, driven by significant domestic sales and improving profit margins [6] - The total delivery volume for wind turbines in 2026 is projected to exceed 160 GW, with domestic tenders accounting for approximately 150 GW and overseas orders nearing 40 GW [6] - Major manufacturers are expected to increase wind turbine prices by over 10%, leading to an anticipated profit margin improvement of more than 5% [6] Group 3: Lithium Battery Industry - In 2025, over 282 investment projects across the entire lithium battery industry chain were publicly announced, with a total investment exceeding 820 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of over 74% [7] - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a continuous improvement in supply-demand dynamics in 2026, with high-quality production capacity likely to experience a supply shortage [7] - The market for gallium arsenide in aerospace applications is projected to reach 425 million USD by 2024, indicating significant growth potential in this segment [7] Group 4: Poultry Industry - The H5N1 avian influenza outbreak in France has significantly impacted the domestic white feather chicken industry, leading to a supply shortage due to import restrictions [9] - The price of parent stock chicken has risen to 55-57 yuan per set in January 2026, driven by reduced supply from the upstream breeding segment [9] - The overall reduction in chicken supply is expected to drive up prices for live chickens and chicken products, benefiting integrated enterprises that can better manage cost fluctuations [9] Group 5: Pet Medical Services - Ruipai Pet has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to raise funds for store expansion, talent development, and digital transformation [10] - The company has achieved profitability in the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 15.54 million yuan, making it the only profitable large chain pet hospital in the country [11] - The pet medical sector is characterized by a low degree of chain integration, with Ruipai Pet and New Ruipeng emerging as the two leading players in the market [11]

Group 1 - In 2025, the primary market is evolving amidst significant changes, driven by disruptive technologies led by artificial intelligence and reshaped capital flows due to geopolitical factors [1][50] - Global venture capital activity remained stable with 22,500 investment events and a total disclosed investment of approximately $348.1 billion, marking a 44.8% increase compared to 2024 [50] - The IPO and M&A markets rebounded strongly, with 1,372 companies successfully listing and raising approximately $170.6 billion, the best performance since 2022 [2][50] Group 2 - In China, the narrative differs, with government policies aimed at improving the efficiency of fiscal funds and supporting strategic sectors like AI and aerospace [51] - The establishment of a national venture capital fund with a registered scale exceeding 120 billion yuan aims to support seed and early-stage projects [51] - The banking sector's financial asset investment companies (AIC) have made significant progress, with 99 new funds established and a total scale of 198 billion yuan [3][51] Group 3 - The fundraising environment has shifted from quantity expansion to quality improvement, with a slight decrease in the number of private equity and venture capital managers [5][53] - The total scale of private equity funds reached 11.18 trillion yuan, showing a modest increase of 2.3% year-on-year [53] - Notably, the fundraising situation for dollar funds has improved, with several funds successfully closing significant amounts [7][55] Group 4 - Artificial intelligence remains the dominant investment theme in 2025, with 788 AI companies receiving 1,015 investments totaling 65.6 billion yuan, a significant increase from 2024 [18][60] - The robotics sector, particularly embodied intelligence, saw substantial growth, with 530 investments totaling 34.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 116.3% increase in investment events [19][60] - The competition in the foundational model space has stabilized, with a noticeable decline in investment activity as resources concentrate among leading firms [20][60] Group 5 - The trend of early-stage investments continues, with A-round investments being the most frequent, comprising 34.5% of total investment events [25][26] - Seed and angel round investments have seen significant increases, with seed round investments growing by 59.5% in number and 179.4% in amount compared to 2024 [27][25] - Noteworthy large investment events include significant funding rounds for various companies across sectors, indicating a robust interest in early-stage ventures [26][27] Group 6 - The Yangtze River Delta region remains the most active investment area, accounting for nearly 50% of total investment events in China [31][30] - Jiangsu province alone had 1,256 investment events, representing 19.8% of the national total, with significant investments in advanced manufacturing and AI [33][30] - Beijing reported the highest disclosed investment amount at 95.9 billion yuan, highlighting its prominence in the investment landscape [36][30] Group 7 - The M&A market in China is characterized by a trend of private equity firms acquiring foreign brands, with notable transactions involving major global companies [38][39] - Investment institutions are increasingly engaging in mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, marking a shift towards deeper involvement in operational aspects [39][40] - The trend indicates a growing preference for controlling stakes in companies to enhance operational synergies and market positioning [40][39] Group 8 - The Hong Kong stock market has regained its position as a leading venue for IPOs, with 247 Chinese companies listed in 2025, a 26.7% increase year-on-year [44][43] - The total fundraising amount for Chinese companies in Hong Kong reached approximately 326.6 billion yuan, reflecting a significant recovery in the IPO market [44][43] - The A-share market also saw a notable increase in listings and fundraising, with 116 companies raising around 128.7 billion yuan [45][43]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the growth potential driven by AI and the reversal of the anti-involution cycle in the manufacturing sector [1] - Key companies highlighted include Yokogawa Electric, Zhejiang Rongtai, Shanghai Yanpu, Taotao Vehicle, Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, and others [2][3] - The core investment strategy focuses on sectors such as machinery, lithium battery equipment, and intelligent robotics, with a positive outlook for 2026 [4][6] Group 2 - The machinery sector is expected to see a strong start in 2026, with continued focus on technological growth in areas like embodied intelligence and commercial aerospace [4] - The report notes that the lithium battery equipment sector has crossed a turning point, with demand driven by energy storage and overseas power batteries, projecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% from 2024 to 2027 [6][10] - The report predicts significant profit growth for key companies, with expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being 0.13 billion, 0.84 billion, and 1.90 billion respectively, indicating a CAGR of approximately 290% [11][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Views - The report highlights that the demand for mining machinery is expected to remain strong due to high global copper prices, which have risen over 30% since the beginning of the year, reaching nearly $12,000 per ton [2][5] - The export of excavators is becoming a key growth driver, with December export growth accelerating by 8 percentage points month-on-month, particularly in large excavators, which saw a year-on-year growth of over 60% [2][4] - The domestic market for excavators is anticipated to gradually recover, supported by major infrastructure projects and a potential revival in the real estate sector [4][5] Summary by Sections Excavator Sales and Exports - In December 2025, excavator sales reached 23,000 units, with domestic sales of 10,000 units (up 11% year-on-year) and exports of 13,000 units (up 27% year-on-year) [1] - The export of second-hand machinery has also seen significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 69% and 80% in October and November, respectively, indicating effective clearance of existing equipment [3] Domestic Market Recovery - The report notes that the domestic sales of small and medium excavators improved in December, while large excavators continued to show resilience despite a slowdown in growth [4] - Key infrastructure projects, such as those along the Yarlung Tsangpo River, are expected to support the recovery of domestic demand for construction machinery [4][5] Recommendations for Key Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Liugong, and Hengli Hydraulic, all of which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand in both domestic and international markets [8][17]

——2025年港股IPO市场回顾暨2026年展望 | 证券分析师：彭文玉 | | A0230517080001 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 朱敏 | A0230524050004 | | | 任奕璇 | A0230525050002 | | 研究支持: | 陈榕杰 | A0230125080001 | | 联系人: | 陈榕杰 | A0230125080001 | | 2026.01.09 | | | 摘要 证券研究报告 风起潮未落 www.swsresearch.com 2 ◼ 2025年港股IPO融资规模领跑全球，新股上市表现强劲，破发率降至历史低位。供给端，港股上市制度持续优化，叠加外地公司赴港进程加 速，使港股成为企业融资及二次上市的重要选择；定价端，二级市场估值上行拓宽了新股上涨空间，一二级价差走阔为新股首日表现创造了 条件。在此背景下，2025年港股打新收益显著回暖，稳获一手（500-2000万港元）对应的表观收益率回升至0.57%～1.04%，明显高于 2021-2024年水平，基石投资者平均解禁收益率64%，约89%项目录得正收益。展望2026年，预期港股IPO投融资两 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong IPO market in 2025 demonstrated remarkable vitality, attracting 119 companies and raising a total of HKD 285.6 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 224%, making it the largest fundraising market globally [2][6]. Group 1: Listing Overview - A total of 119 companies successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2025, with 118 on the main board and 1 on the GEM board [3]. - The listing methods diversified, including 1 introduction listing, 2 SPAC reverse mergers, and 2 GEM transfers to the main board, indicating a more flexible approach to listing [3][6]. Group 2: Fundraising Scale - The total fundraising amount for the 114 effective listings (excluding special listings) reached HKD 285.87 billion, a significant increase of 226% compared to 2024, with a growth of over HKD 198 billion [6]. - 19 companies achieved dual listings (A+H), raising a total of HKD 141.9 billion, accounting for 50% of the total fundraising [9]. Group 3: Industry Distribution - The healthcare sector led with 20 listings (nearly 17% of total), reflecting strong capital demand from innovative pharmaceutical and medical service companies [11]. - The consumer retail sector had 14 listings, primarily from tea and food chain brands, driven by the recovery in consumer spending [11]. - The industrial materials and technology sectors each had 10 listings, focusing on high-end manufacturing and hard technology, respectively [11]. Group 4: Regional Distribution - The majority of listings were concentrated in the eastern coastal economic belt, particularly in the Yangtze River Delta, which accounted for over 30 listings [14]. - Other regions like Guangdong, Beijing, and Fujian had around 10 listings each, while listings from central and western regions were minimal [14]. Group 5: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and stable RMB exchange rates, enhancing its attractiveness to global capital [17]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests a shift from liquidity-driven growth to profit-driven growth, with sectors like AI, renewable energy, and biomedicine showing long-term potential [17].

Market Performance - The A-share market has shown slight fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,082.98, down 0.07%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,959.48, down 0.51% [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 16.76 and 51.97, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][14] - The trading volume in the two markets has remained above the median level for the past three years, with significant interest in sectors such as aerospace, shipbuilding, and internet services [8][9] Economic and Policy Insights - The Ministry of Commerce has emphasized the importance of compliance with Chinese laws for foreign investments and technology exports, particularly in the context of Meta's acquisition of Manus [4][5] - The government is committed to expanding high-level openness, with the Hainan Free Trade Port serving as a key initiative [5] - The macroeconomic strategy indicates a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations for credit growth and supportive measures for consumption [10][11] Industry Analysis - The aerospace and shipbuilding sectors have led the A-share market, while the financial and materials sectors have shown weaker performance [9][13] - The food and beverage sector has faced challenges, with a notable decline in traditional categories like liquor, while emerging categories such as snacks and health products have performed better [16][17] - The gaming industry is experiencing steady growth, with animation films significantly contributing to box office revenues [20][22] Investment Recommendations - Investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as soft drinks, health products, and baked goods, with specific stocks highlighted for potential growth [18] - The semiconductor industry continues to show robust growth, with global sales increasing significantly, indicating a strong market outlook [25] - The new materials sector is expected to benefit from ongoing demand and technological advancements, with a recommendation to focus on leading companies in this space [26][27] Sector-Specific Developments - The electric power sector has seen a mixed performance, with the overall index underperforming compared to the broader market, but specific segments like wind and solar power are gaining traction [30][31] - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases for silicon wafers and batteries, driven by supply-demand dynamics and cost pressures [33][35] - The livestock sector is stabilizing, with pig prices showing signs of recovery, while pet food exports continue to grow [37][38]