另一个支持小摩对中国宏桥乐观看法的因素是其展示了对股东回报的重视。事实上，宏桥集团的6%以 上的股息收益率为股价提供了坚实的支撑。 该行仍然看好铝业股票，并预计近期波动性较大，预计2026财年的收益增长为10-16%。该行认为，宏 桥的估值在当下被低估。中国宏桥作为中国铝业（601600）的重要生产商之一，预计将从这一趋势中受 益，维持健康的边际利润。此外，中国宏桥的低生产成本优势使其在全球同行中更具竞争力。 尽管中国宏桥(01378)达到近期高点后回调，但小摩认为这对投资者而已是一个买入良机，该行对2026 年铝行业的前景持建设性态度。小摩维持中国宏桥的"增持"评级，并将目标价从26.5港元上调至34港 元。 小摩对2026年铝行业的前景持建设性态度，这一前景受到全球需求的韧性、铜价上涨的幅度和健康的冶 炼利润率的支持。小摩的基本预测是，来自印尼的新供应将在2026年带来适度的过剩，但潜在的供应中 断风险和海外重启速度的放缓可能会使市场比其基本预测更紧张。 ...

2025 年 11 月 20 日 双融日报 市场情绪：37 分（较冷） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-11-19 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-11-18 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-11-17 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较冷） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 37 分，市场情绪处于"较冷"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：有色金属、电力设备、银行 1、有色金属主题：美元降息提振需求预期，AI 数据中心拉 动边际增量。铜：金融属性叠加矿端紧张、冶炼厂减产，传 统需求韧性+AI 拉动，价格中枢上移。铝：国内产能见顶、 海外增量有限，十五五开局紧平衡强化。相关标的：紫金矿 业（601899）、中国铝业（601600） 2、电力设备主题：在全球能源转型与数字化转型的交汇点， 人工智能正加速渗透电力行业。国际能源署（IEA）预测，到 2030 年，全球数据中心的耗电量将翻一番。作为世界电力大 国， ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a steady upward trend since the "924" policy, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing the 4000-point mark, reaching a ten-year high [5] - The A500 ETF managed by E Fund has outperformed major indices, with the CSI A500 index rising over 32% since its low in April [5] - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with potential new opportunities emerging [5] Group 2 - The "924" policy, which included wide credit measures for small and medium enterprises, has broken the negative spiral in market expectations, initiating the current rally [6] - Historical trends indicate that each cycle of wide credit and monetary policy is typically accompanied by sustained stock market growth, with the current fiscal policies increasing the likelihood of economic recovery [6] - The implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to shift the economy from a deflationary to an inflationary cycle, which is crucial for the A-share market's narrative in the latter half of the year [6] Group 3 - The market is currently in the "economic verification" phase, with previous high-performing sectors facing adjustments, and a potential shift towards undervalued assets with expected performance improvements [9] - The financing balance in the A-share market has increased significantly, from 1.8 trillion yuan to nearly 2.5 trillion yuan since June, indicating strong inflows of leveraged funds [7][9] - Despite the Shanghai Composite Index being at a ten-year high, overall valuation levels remain moderate, with the price-to-earnings ratios of major indices at their historical median [10] Group 4 - The A-share market is entering a new phase characterized by resource stocks, particularly copper and aluminum, as key drivers of the current market trend [17] - Copper prices have reached historical highs, leading to a significant rally in global copper mining stocks, with major Chinese companies like Zijin Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing substantial gains [18] - The aluminum sector is expected to experience a supply-demand imbalance starting in 2026, which could lead to rising aluminum prices and stable returns for aluminum companies [19] Group 5 - Oil and chemical sectors are also gaining attention, with leading companies in these industries beginning to recover in valuation despite ongoing challenges in the commodities market [19] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is positioned to benefit significantly due to its low production costs and focus on offshore exploration, making it one of the most profitable among the state-owned oil companies [20] - The overall dividend yield for major oil companies in China is competitive, with CNOOC, China Petroleum, and Sinopec offering attractive returns to investors [20]

Core Points - The Industrial Metal R Index (480043) closed at 3146.58 points, up 1.82%, with a trading volume of 41.581 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 1.85% [1] - Among the index constituents, 30 stocks rose, led by Zhongjin Gold with an 8.76% increase, while 20 stocks fell, with Haomei New Materials leading the decline at 3.49% [1] Summary by Category Index Performance - The Industrial Metal R Index reported a gain of 1.82% on the day, closing at 3146.58 points [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 41.581 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.85% [1] Constituents Performance - Top performing stocks included: - Zhongjin Gold: +8.76% - Xiyuan Mining: +2.96% - China Aluminum: +2.14% [1] - Notable declines included: - Haomei New Materials: -3.49% - Dongyangguang: -1.66% [1] Market Capitalization and Weighting - The top ten constituents by weight and their market capitalizations are as follows: - Rongyang Aluminum: 12.30% weight, market cap of 339.742 billion yuan - China Aluminum: 8.17% weight, market cap of 188.369 billion yuan - Yun Aluminum: 4.90% weight, market cap of 83.647 billion yuan [1] Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds from the index constituents totaled 461 million yuan, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 227 million yuan [1] - Specific stock capital flows included: - Zhongjin Gold: 17.2 million yuan net inflow from main funds - China Aluminum: 81.544 million yuan net inflow from main funds [2]

Core Insights - The A-share non-ferrous metal industry, comprising 141 listed companies, achieved a total revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 151.29 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 41.55% [2][3]. Revenue Performance - Jiangxi Copper, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum ranked highest in revenue, with figures of 396.04 billion yuan, 254.2 billion yuan, and 176.51 billion yuan respectively. Over 70% of the companies in the non-ferrous metal sector reported year-on-year revenue growth [5][7]. - Companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum and Yunnan Copper also exceeded 100 billion yuan in revenue during the same period [7]. Profitability - More than 90% of the listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector reported profits in the first three quarters of 2025. Zijin Mining led with a net profit of 37.86 billion yuan, achieving a year-on-year growth rate of 55.45% [7]. - Companies like Pengxin Resources and Tianqi Lithium successfully turned losses into profits during this period [8][10]. Gross Margin Analysis - The average gross margin for A-share non-ferrous metal companies was approximately 18.15%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points year-on-year. Companies such as Zhaojin Mining, Cangge Mining, and Xiaocheng Technology exhibited significant growth in gross margin [8][10]. - Notably, Xiaocheng Technology and Sichuan Gold had the highest sales gross margins at 65.07% and 64.11% respectively [11].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry index in China has shown strong performance, with significant increases in key stocks and overall positive trends in metal prices, particularly in gold and lithium [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 3.02%, with notable increases in stocks such as Zijin Mining (9.29%) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (7.47%) [1]. - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) also increased by 3.08%, reaching a latest price of 1.78 yuan [1]. - Gold futures saw a sharp rise, with the main contract increasing over 1% to approach 940 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: Market Insights - According to Zhongyou Securities, the aluminum market is nearing the end of its peak season, with supply-side factors supporting price stability. Long-term expectations suggest a potential rise in prices due to overseas power supply risks affecting electrolytic aluminum production [1]. - The supply shortage of tin remains a dominant theme, with expectations for tin prices to maintain high levels and limited pullbacks [1]. - The energy storage market continues to thrive, driving demand for lithium carbonate significantly [1]. Group 3: Index Composition - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index includes 50 securities that are prominent in terms of size and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 52.91% of the total index weight, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Aluminum [2].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Positive" for the steel industry, indicating an expectation of overall returns exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [4]. Core Insights - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which has the largest and highest-grade undeveloped iron ore reserves globally, officially commenced production on November 11, 2025. Chinese enterprises hold over 50% of the equity resources in the project [2][11]. - The initial combined production capacity of the Simandou project is expected to reach 120 million tons per year, with production ramping up from 2026 and expected to reach full capacity around 2030. This project is strategically significant for China to reduce its reliance on Australian and Brazilian iron ore imports [2][16]. - The Simandou project is anticipated to contribute 5% to global iron ore supply upon reaching full production, equivalent to 10% of China's iron ore imports in 2024 [16]. Summary by Sections Project Overview - The Simandou iron ore project is located in southeastern Guinea and features significant reserves of over 4.4 billion tons with an average iron content exceeding 65% [11][12]. - The project is divided into northern and southern blocks, with major Chinese companies like China Baowu and Chalco leading the northern block's development [12][15]. Market Impact - The project is expected to shift the global iron ore supply-demand balance from a tight equilibrium to a more relaxed state, leading to a gradual decline in iron ore prices. The average all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for Simandou is projected to be in the 75th percentile globally, which will pressure higher-cost marginal mines [3][22][23]. - The anticipated increase in supply from Simandou, along with expansions from other major mines, is expected to create downward pressure on iron ore prices, which have been fluctuating around $100 per dry ton [22][23]. Strategic Significance - The Simandou project exemplifies a successful model for Chinese enterprises to secure strategic resources abroad through collaborative efforts, enhancing China's bargaining power in the global iron ore market [24][25]. - The project is part of a broader strategy to diversify China's iron ore import sources and reduce dependency on the four major mining companies that dominate the market [16][20].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rally, with significant price increases in key stocks and ETFs, indicating a bullish market outlook [1][2]. - The non-ferrous metal industry index (399395) has risen by 1.90%, with notable stock performances including Tianqi Lithium (up 6.61%) and Ganfeng Lithium (up 6.01%) [1]. - The overall sentiment in the non-ferrous metal sector is positive, driven by expectations of a comprehensive bull market, particularly in industrial metals like copper and aluminum due to supply disruptions and recovering demand [2]. Group 2 - Industrial metals are expected to see price increases due to significant downward adjustments in global copper mine output and frequent supply disruptions in electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are projected to experience tighter supply conditions and price increases due to rising storage demand and export bans [2]. - Precious metals are anticipated to maintain a long-term bullish trend, with gold prices rising amid a backdrop of currency devaluation and low stock valuations compared to historical levels [2]. Group 3 - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) closely tracks the non-ferrous metal industry index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in the non-ferrous metal industry [3]. - As of October 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the non-ferrous metal industry index account for 52.91% of the index, highlighting the concentration of market performance among these key players [3].

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts has led to a rise in gold-related products, with significant inflows into the non-ferrous metal ETF fund and notable increases in individual stocks within the sector [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund (516650) increased by 1.61%, with Tianqi Lithium rising by 6.91% and other stocks like Ganfeng Lithium, Yongxing Materials, and Huayou Cobalt also seeing gains [2] - The gold ETF Huaxia (518850) rose by 1.06%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) increased by 1.77% [2] - Over the past three days, the non-ferrous metal ETF fund has seen a net inflow of 234 million yuan, bringing its latest scale to 1.972 billion yuan as of November 18 [2] Group 2: Fund Performance Metrics - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund has experienced an 83.42% increase in net value over the past two years, ranking 42 out of 2406 index stock funds, placing it in the top 1.75% [2] - The fund's highest single-month return since inception was 27.00%, with the longest streak of consecutive monthly gains being six months and a maximum cumulative increase of 69.57% [2] - The average monthly return during rising months is 9.63%, and the fund has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 6.20% over the past six months, ranking 1 out of 2 comparable funds [2] Group 3: Index Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF fund closely tracks the CSI segmented non-ferrous metal industry theme index, with the top ten weighted stocks as of October 31, 2025, including Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 53.58% of the index [3]

费率方面，自由现金流ETF管理费率为0.15%，托管费率为0.05%。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。自由现金流ETF连续3天获杠杆资金净买入，最高单日获得6658.95万元净买入，最新融资余额达1.71亿元。 截至11月18日，自由现金流ETF近6月净值上涨21.02%。从收益能力看，截至2025年11月18日，自由现金流ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为7%，最长连涨 月数为6个月，最长连涨涨幅为22.69%，涨跌月数比为7/1，上涨月份平均收益率为3.2%，月盈利百分比为87.5%，月盈利概率为82.93%，历史持有6个月盈 利概率为100%。截至2025年11月18日，自由现金流ETF近6个月超越基准年化收益为9.39%。 截至2025年11月19日 9:41，国证自由现金流指数上涨0.19%，成分股海陆重工涨停，春风动力、东方铁塔、江河集团、海信视像等跟涨。自由现金流 ETF(159201)多空胶着，最新报价1.19元。流动性方面，截至11月18日，自由现金流ETF近1周日均成交5.46亿元。 从资金净流入方面来看，自由现金流ETF近8天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得2.53亿元净流入，合计"吸金" ...