本期业绩预增的主要原因：(一)报告期主要矿产品产量同比增加，其中矿产金约90吨(2024年度：73 吨)、矿产铜(含卡莫阿权益产量)约109万吨(2024年度：107万吨)、矿产银约437吨(2024年度：436吨)、 当量碳酸锂(含藏格矿业（000408）5-12月产量)约2.5万吨(2024年度：261吨)。(二)报告期，矿产金、矿 产铜、矿产银销售价格同比上升。 此外，公司提出2026年度主要矿产品产量计划如下：矿产金105吨、矿产铜120万吨、当量碳酸锂12万 吨、矿产银520吨。 紫金矿业（601899）(02899)发布公告，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约人民币510— 520亿元，与上年同期人民币320.51亿元相比，将增加约人民币189—199亿元，同比增加约59%—62%。 预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约人民币475—485亿元，与上年同 期人民币316.93亿元相比，将增加约人民币158—168亿元，同比增加约50%—53%。 ...

Group 1 - The energy metals sector increased by 1.84% on December 30, with Shengtu Mining leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, unchanged, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% to 13604.07 [1] - Key stocks in the energy metals sector showed varied performance, with Jidian Mining up by 4.72% and Ganfeng Lithium down by 1.79% [2] Group 2 - The main capital flow in the energy metals sector showed a net outflow of 153 million yuan from institutional investors and 158 million yuan from speculative funds, while retail investors had a net inflow of 311 million yuan [2][3] - Specific stock capital flows indicated that Huayou Cobalt had a net inflow of 490 million yuan from main funds, while Shengtu Mining experienced a net outflow of 961.26 million yuan [3] - The overall trading volume and turnover for key stocks in the sector varied, with Yongxing Materials achieving a turnover of 266.68 million yuan and Tianqi Lithium at 3.159 billion yuan [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Huayou Cobalt (603799), Zijin Mining (601899), and China Aluminum (601600) [5][6]. Core Insights - The steel industry is expected to see improved profitability due to the implementation of stable growth policies and an anticipated increase in demand from shipbuilding and construction sectors. The focus on "equipment upgrades" and "low-carbon transformation" is expected to drive industry development [3][5]. - In the copper sector, global copper supply is projected to tighten further due to incidents at major mines, providing support for copper prices. Demand is expected to increase as major economies enter a rate-cutting cycle, enhancing the industry's outlook [3][5]. - The aluminum sector is facing a supply surplus, with stable supply conditions and weak demand expected to keep prices under pressure in the short term. However, the industry is anticipated to benefit from improved profitability as the "anti-involution" policy takes effect [5][6]. - Gold prices are influenced by geopolitical risks and changes in U.S. economic data, with long-term trends favoring gold due to central bank purchases and the weakening of the U.S. dollar [5][6]. - The rare earth sector is expected to see a revaluation of related companies due to China's export control upgrades, with significant demand growth anticipated from robotics and new energy sectors [5][6]. - The cobalt market is expected to remain tight due to constrained supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with demand driven by electric vehicles and consumer electronics [5][6]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The steel industry is experiencing a seasonal decline in demand, with limited improvement expected. Steel inventory pressures may accumulate further as demand weakens [2][3][16]. - As of December 26, 2025, the total steel inventory was 12.58 million tons, a decrease of 2.73% from the previous week but an increase of 12.07% year-on-year [24][25]. - The average price of steel on December 26 was 3,439.15 CNY per ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.28% from the previous week [31][32]. Copper Industry - The copper market is facing a seasonal demand slowdown, with high prices suppressing downstream demand. Supply is expected to contract as the year ends, leading to weaker price drivers in the short term [4][34]. - On December 26, the price of copper was 98,000 CNY per ton, an increase of 5.79% from the previous week [38]. Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is characterized by stable supply and weak demand, with prices expected to remain under pressure. The average price of aluminum on December 26 was 22,000 CNY per ton, a 0.92% increase from the previous week [42]. Gold Industry - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are key factors influencing gold prices, which are expected to experience increased volatility in the short term. On December 26, gold prices were 4,562.00 USD per ounce, up 4.42% from the previous week [47]. Rare Earth and Cobalt Industries - The rare earth sector is poised for growth due to strategic importance and demand from emerging technologies. The cobalt market is expected to remain tight, driven by electric vehicle demand [5][6].

Group 1 - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.54%, with the chemical sub-index up by 2.37% [1] - Individual stocks such as Hengli Petrochemical surged over 6%, and Juhua Co. rose more than 3%, with Wanhu Chemical and Salt Lake Potash also seeing gains [1] - The chemical ETF by Jiashi (159129) increased by 2.56%, with a trading volume of 20.62 million yuan and a turnover rate of 2.86% [1] Group 2 - China Galaxy Securities forecasts a negative growth in capital expenditure for the chemical industry starting in 2024, with supply expected to contract due to the "anti-involution" trend and accelerated exit of outdated overseas capacity [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding domestic demand, which, combined with the onset of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle, is expected to open up demand for chemical products [1] - The chemical industry has been in a down cycle for approximately 3.5 years, but with continued decline in capital expenditure and faster exit of outdated capacity, the industry is expected to enter a low growth phase [1] - The industry is anticipated to reach a cyclical turning point by 2026, transitioning from valuation recovery to earnings growth, referred to as the "Davis Double-Click" [1] Group 3 - The Jiashi Chemical ETF tracks the CSI Sub-Segmented Chemical Industry Theme Index, which selects 50 large-scale, liquid chemical listed companies from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhu Chemical, Salt Lake Potash, Tianci Materials, Cangge Mining, Juhua Co., Hualu Hengsheng, Duofu Du, Hengli Petrochemical, Baofeng Energy, and Yuntianhua, collectively accounting for over 45.41% of the index [2]

Core Viewpoint - Cangge Mining's stock price has seen significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of 215.21%, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On December 30, Cangge Mining's stock rose by 2.05%, reaching 84.26 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 9.02 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 0.69%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 132.31 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has increased by 5.63% over the last five trading days, 33.60% over the last 20 days, and 50.76% over the last 60 days [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Cangge Mining reported a revenue of 2.40 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.75 billion CNY, which is a 47.26% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company's main business revenue composition includes 83.34% from potassium chloride, 15.90% from lithium carbonate, and 0.75% from other sources [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Cangge Mining had 36,800 shareholders, an increase of 25.24% from the previous period, with an average of 42,667 circulating shares per shareholder, a decrease of 20.15% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 9.63 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 5.99 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the sixth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 27.70 million shares, a decrease of 3.45 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Co., Ltd. was the eighth-largest circulating shareholder, holding 15.91 million shares, down by 2.21 million shares from the previous period [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical sector is expected to reverse next year after four years of bottoming out, driven by anticipated demand recovery following the Federal Reserve's preemptive interest rate cuts [1] - The most significant impact of the anti-involution trend is on PTA and long silk, with a positive outlook for PTA due to major refining companies leading the charge, despite some opposition [1] - Future capacity additions in the PX chain are limited, with recent price increases attributed to maintenance by some companies and production cuts in Indian refineries, ultimately depending on next year's demand recovery [1] Group 2 - Currently, there is a liquidity bull market, with the market seeking outlets for investment, and the chemical sector is one of the areas being positioned for potential opportunities at the bottom [1] - As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 2.09%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Xin Feng Ming (603225) up 8.56% and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up 8.52% [1] - The Chemical ETF (159870) increased by 2.22%, with the latest price reported at 0.83 yuan [1] Group 3 - The Chemical ETF closely tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index, which consists of seven sub-indices reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in related sectors [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index accounted for 45.41% of the index, including companies like Wanhua Chemical (600309) and Yanhua Co. (000792) [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - The industrial bond market has seen a total issuance of 7,440 bonds, amounting to 8.60 trillion yuan, covering 29 primary industries, with 16 industries exceeding 100 billion yuan in issuance for the year, notably including public utilities, non-bank financials, and transportation [1] - The A-share market has continued to experience a volatile upward trend, with significant increases in weekly financing and a net inflow of 36.34 billion yuan into stock ETFs, indicating a positive funding environment [2] Group 2: Real Estate Sector - As of December 28, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 774,000 units, reflecting a decrease of 16.5%, with notable declines in Beijing (21%), Shanghai (5%), and Shenzhen (38%) [3] - The secondary housing market in 10 cities recorded 756,000 transactions, a slight decrease of 0.7%, with Beijing showing a minor decline of 1% and Shanghai experiencing a 6% increase [3] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The oral semaglutide for weight loss received FDA approval, with significant clinical data from related companies indicating a shift from research validation to commercial confirmation, suggesting investment opportunities in leading firms like Goliath Pharmaceuticals and Hengrui Medicine [4] Group 4: Metals and Materials Sector - Lithium prices have reached approximately 112,000 yuan per ton, with recommendations to focus on companies with cost advantages and resource expansion potential, such as Salt Lake Co. and Tianqi Lithium [5] - Cobalt prices have increased across multiple varieties, with a recommendation to monitor Huayou Cobalt [5] - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides are at a 19-month high, indicating potential investment opportunities in companies like Northern Rare Earth and Shenghe Resources [5]

Group 1: Polyester Industry Chain Price Trends - The prices of polyester industry chain products have increased as of December 25, with PX at 7318, PTA at 5040, polyester filament at 6450, polyester bottle chips at 5990, and BOPET at 7475 yuan/ton, reflecting increases of +7.88%, +8.39%, +2.79%, +5.27%, and +1.15% respectively compared to the previous week [1] Group 2: Production Capacity Insights - PX production is currently at 89% capacity, with no new capacity expected before Q4 2024. PTA has a 74% operating rate with significant pressure from 2025, and no new capacity is anticipated for 2026. Polyester filament is stable with a 90% operating rate and an annual expansion of 3-4% [1] Group 3: Demand and Consumption Forecast - From January to November this year, the apparent demand for polyester filament has only increased by 3.5%. Following a proactive inventory accumulation cycle in 2024, a destocking cycle is expected to begin in early 2025. By 2026, a return to an inventory accumulation cycle is anticipated, with consumption growth expected to return to the 5-10% range [1] Group 4: Profitability Analysis - Recent profitability trends show PX recovering from zero to 700 yuan/ton, PTA moving from cash flow losses to break-even, and polyester entering a state of slight losses. By 2026, PX profits are expected to expand further, while PTA is likely to maintain break-even, and polyester is projected to recover to a profit range of 100-200 yuan [1] Group 5: Lithium Battery Materials Sector - The lithium battery materials sector has seen a decline due to rumors of a 15% production cut by CATL in Q1 and speculation about 6F prices dropping below 110,000 yuan. However, ongoing negotiations indicate that pricing discussions are progressing as planned, and CATL's suppliers have stated that a 15% reduction is not feasible without losing market share [2] Group 6: Chemical ETF Performance - As of December 30, 2025, the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Theme Index (000813) rose by 0.37%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Hengyi Petrochemical (000703) up by 5.21% and Hengli Petrochemical (600346) up by 2.95% [2]

Industry Overview - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 7th this week (2025/12/22-2025/12/26) with a fluctuation of 4.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.35 percentage points and the ChiNext Index by 0.34 percentage points [1] - The chemical industry is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with a focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [1] Synthetic Biology - The arrival of a pivotal moment in synthetic biology is anticipated, driven by the adjustment of energy structures, which may disrupt fossil-based materials and favor low-energy products [1] - Traditional chemical companies are expected to compete based on energy consumption and carbon tax costs, with successful firms leveraging green energy alternatives and integrated advantages to reduce costs [1] - The demand for bio-based materials is projected to surge, leading to potential profitability and valuation increases for leading companies in the synthetic biology sector, such as Kasei Bio and Huaheng Bio [1] Refrigerants - The implementation of quota policies is expected to usher in a high-growth cycle for third-generation refrigerants, with supply entering a "quota + continuous reduction" phase starting in 2024 [2] - The demand for refrigerants is anticipated to grow steadily due to the development of heat pumps, cold chain markets, and the expansion of the air conditioning market in Southeast Asia [2] - Companies with a high quota share, such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., are expected to benefit significantly from this trend [2] Electronic Specialty Gases - Electronic specialty gases are critical to the electronics industry and represent a core component of domestic industrial chain localization [2] - The domestic market faces a contradiction between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [2] - Key players like Jinhong Gas, Huate Gas, and China Shipbuilding Gas are positioned to capitalize on the growing demand driven by integrated circuits, panels, and photovoltaics [2] Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals - The trend towards light raw materials in the global olefin industry is becoming increasingly significant, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter low-carbon alkanes like ethane and propane [3] - Light hydrocarbon chemicals are characterized by low carbon emissions, low energy consumption, and low water usage, aligning with global carbon neutrality goals [3] - Companies in the light hydrocarbon sector, such as Satellite Chemical, are expected to see a revaluation of their value as this trend continues [3] COC Polymers - The industrialization process of COC/COP (cyclic olefin copolymer) is accelerating in China, driven by domestic companies achieving breakthroughs and the shift of downstream industries to domestic sources [4] - COC/COP materials are increasingly used in various applications, including mobile camera lenses and medical packaging, with a focus on high-end applications [4] - Companies like Acolyte are recommended for their potential in the COC polymer production segment [4] Potash Fertilizers - Potash fertilizer prices are expected to rebound as the industry enters a destocking cycle, with supply constraints due to Canpotex withdrawing new quotes and Nutrien announcing production cuts [5] - The demand for potash fertilizers is likely to increase as farmers respond to rising grain prices, leading to a potential reversal in potash prices [5] - Leading companies in the potash sector, such as Yara International, Salt Lake Potash, and Zangge Mining, are recommended for investment [5] MDI Market - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with demand steadily improving due to the expansion of polyurethane applications [6] - The global MDI production capacity is concentrated among five major chemical giants, which control approximately 90.85% of the market [6] - Companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to benefit from the favorable supply dynamics and demand recovery in the MDI sector [6] Chemical Price Tracking - The top five price increases this week included NYMEX natural gas (9.59%), PTA (8.95%), and butadiene (6.83%) [6] - The top five price decreases included pure MDI (-4.23%) and acrylic fiber (-3.45%) [6] - A total of 170 chemical companies reported production capacity impacts this week, with 6 new repairs and 10 restarts [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Chemical Industry Investment Strategy for 2026 Industry Overview - The chemical industry is undergoing significant changes on the supply side, with European capacity being reduced due to cost pressures and domestic fixed asset investment growth slowing down, which may lead to improved profits in certain sub-industries [1][2] - The China Chemical Price Index (CCPI) and the gross profit margin of the Yangtze Chemical Sector are at historically low levels, indicating a cyclical fluctuation in the industry, with a potential upward cycle on the horizon [1][4] Core Insights and Arguments - The investment strategy for the chemical industry in 2026 can be summarized as "supply optimization, rising momentum," following three years of downturn from 2023 to 2025 [2] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a global GDP growth rate of approximately 3.09% for 2026, with China's growth at 4.2%, suggesting resilient external demand [5] - Emerging fields such as new energy, energy storage, and AI infrastructure are positively impacting the demand for chemical products, with significant growth in new energy vehicle production and global energy storage installations [6] Performance of Domestic and Overseas Companies - Domestic chemical leaders experienced a year-on-year decline in performance in the first half of 2025, but overseas companies faced a faster decline, with Europe shutting down 11 million tons of capacity across 21 major production bases [7] - China's market share in the chemical sector increased from less than 10% in 2020 to 43% in 2023 due to the closure of European capacities [7] Policy Impacts - The domestic anti-involution policy is positively influencing the governance of disorderly competition and promoting the exit of outdated capacities, which is expected to enhance industry profitability [8] - Energy consumption dual control and environmental policies are likely to become key drivers for supply optimization, aiming to reduce excess capacity through stricter project approvals and enhanced regulation [9] Sub-Industry Focus - Notable sub-industries include the silicon-based industry chain, polyester industry chain, spandex, soda ash, chlor-alkali, high-demand refrigerants, chromium salts, and phosphate rock industry chain, as well as new materials related to tires and new energy [3][10] - The organic silicon industry is expected to recover from a low point due to limited new supply and collaborative production cuts among companies [11] - The polyester industry chain is nearing the end of its expansion cycle, with downstream demand remaining strong, and leading companies are negotiating to improve profitability [12] Challenges and Opportunities - The soda ash market faces challenges due to its significant exposure to the real estate sector, but long-term demand from photovoltaic glass is expected to rise [15] - The chlor-alkali industry shows stable demand for caustic soda, while PVC demand is fluctuating, with no new PVC capacity expected in 2026 [16] Noteworthy Companies and Investment Opportunities - High-quality companies in the chemical sector include Wanhua (MDI leader), Hualu (coal chemical leader), Longbai (titanium concentrate and titanium dioxide leader), and Huafeng (spandex) [19] - New material companies such as Guocera Songjing (related to solid-state batteries) and Dongcai Shengquan (high-frequency resin) are also highlighted for their growth potential [20][21]