◎刘禹希 记者 严晓菲 一边是港股市场持续调整，另一边是南向资金逆势"扫货"。近日，在港股市场主要股指承压之际，南向 资金连续三个交易日净买入超百亿港元，累计净买入逾500亿港元。业内人士分析认为，南向资金逆势 扫货，主要缘于对港股低估值修复机会的看好，以及对市场中长期走势的积极预期。 南向资金单日净买入超200亿港元的情形并不多见。自2025年2月以来，类似情形仅出现过12次，且往往 对市场形成支撑。例如2025年4月市场回调期间，南向资金3次单日净流入超200亿港元，其中4月9日高 达355.86亿港元，助力恒指企稳回升。 付原认为：短期来看，南向资金的持续流入有助于快速提振市场情绪，缓解离岸市场的流动性压力，被 外部冲击错杀的优质标的有望迎来超跌反弹；中长期则有望增强内地资金在港股的定价能力，缓冲海外 波动对市场的冲击。 多家机构对港股后市持积极看法。华泰证券策略首席何康在研报中表示，近期的市场调整主要源于技术 面与情绪面压力，中期来看中国资产的流动性及基本面向好趋势并未改变，待技术性指标企稳后市场有 望重拾上行趋势。 光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生在近期研报中表示，港股市场在盈利修复、流动性改善、估值低 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [24] Core Insights - Google's strong performance continues to validate the AI business model, with a robust CapEx guidance indicating ongoing commitment to AI investments [4][5][6] - In Q4 2025, Alphabet reported revenue of $113.828 billion (+18% Y/Y) and net profit of $34.455 billion (+30% Y/Y), with annual revenue surpassing $400 billion for the first time [6][7] - Google's cloud business showed significant growth, achieving $17.7 billion in revenue (+48% Y/Y) in Q4, with a substantial increase in operating profit margin to 30% [6][7][8] - The projected capital expenditure for 2026 is between $175 billion and $185 billion, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 91% to 102% [4][8] Summary by Sections Industry News and Commentary - Google's excellent performance continues to validate the AI business model, with strong CapEx guidance reflecting confidence in future investments [5][6] - The launch of Kuaishou's Keling AI 3.0 series models marks a significant advancement in AI's role in the core production of film and creative content [10] Company Announcements - Notable announcements include strategic investments by companies like Wanjing Technology and Tongdahai, focusing on AI applications in various sectors [13] Weekly Market Review - The computer industry index fell by 3.27% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which declined by 1.33% [14][17] - As of the last trading day, the overall P/E ratio for the computer industry was 55.6 times, with 116 stocks rising, 2 unchanged, and 240 declining [17] Investment Recommendations - The report strongly recommends focusing on AI-related investment opportunities, highlighting companies in AI computing power and algorithms, such as Haiguang Information and Hengsheng Electronics [20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [4] Core Viewpoints - The multi-modal video generation sector is experiencing accelerated iteration of domestic models, significantly narrowing the technological gap with overseas counterparts. The most notable change is the introduction of intelligent storyboarding, which lowers the entry barrier for users. The unified multi-modal architecture supports more efficient and flexible expression of creative intent, leading to substantial progress in both B-end and C-end expansions in 2026. Model vendors are focusing on the AI penetration in the content sector while continuing to enhance their technologies [1][7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The video generation sector is entering a phase of precise control, with recent iterations of models such as Vidu Q3, Kuaishou 3.0, and Seedance 2.0 supporting multi-modal inputs, which enhances controllability and improves the success rate of generated content. The duration for single generation has increased to around 15 seconds, further lowering the creative threshold for both B-end and C-end users [7] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Emphasis should be placed on vertical multi-modal AI application opportunities, with expectations that technological breakthroughs and cost optimizations will accelerate industry trends, driving user growth, payment penetration, and commercialization. Companies with multi-modal AI applications expanding overseas are particularly noteworthy, as they may experience faster growth rates. Recommended targets include Kuaishou-W (01024, Buy) and Meitu Inc. (01357, Buy) [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index within the next six months [54]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that during the Spring Festival, the media industry is experiencing increased exposure, particularly in film, gaming, and AI developments. Eight films are scheduled for release during the Spring Festival, with a diverse range of genres, and the cumulative interest in these films is higher than in previous years [9][52]. - The gaming sector is expected to see revenue growth due to various operational activities during the Spring Festival, particularly for social games [5]. - In the AI sector, multiple leading models are anticipated to release updated versions, and major internet companies are leveraging high user engagement during the Spring Festival to accelerate AI commercialization [6][9]. Summary by Sections Film Industry - Eight films are set for release during the Spring Festival, including titles like "The Silent Awakening" and "Racing Life 3." The cumulative interest for these films has reached 1.29 million, surpassing the previous years' figures [4][9]. - The top three films in terms of cumulative interest are "The Silent Awakening" (780,000), "Racing Life 3" (590,000), and "The Bounty Hunter: Winds Rise in the Desert" (520,000) [52]. Gaming Industry - The game "The Ring" is expected to launch on May 15, with high anticipation reflected in its ranking on the TapTap pre-registration list [5]. - Several social games are launching Spring Festival events, which are expected to enhance daily active users (DAU) and revenue [5]. AI Industry - The report notes a significant iteration period for domestic large models, with several expected releases around the Spring Festival, including Alibaba's Qwen 3.5 and Doubao 2.0 [6]. - Major internet companies are implementing promotional activities, such as cash red envelopes, to boost user engagement and accelerate AI commercialization [6][9]. Key Companies to Watch - In the film sector, companies like Bona Film Group are recommended for attention [9]. - In gaming, companies such as Kingnet, Giant Network, and G-bits are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9].

[Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 8 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Summary [Table_Title] ] 春节前后，港股如何反应？ ——港股市场策略展望 报告摘要： （4）港股天量 IPO 对市场影响不大，影响主要在于 IPO 过后 6 个月 的解禁高峰。典型的例如 11 年年中、15 年下半年、19 年 3 月、21 年 二季度、22 年年中，解禁潮都与港股下跌出现在相似时间段。26 年 3 月主要是有色金属（紫金黄金国际、南山铝业国际）+茶饮（蜜雪冰城） 的解禁潮，中大型规模公司的解禁规模 872 亿港元，高于去年年末的 解禁小高峰。由于港股通账户并不能够参与打新，享受稀缺性公司的 上市红利，却需要承受限售股解禁带来的风险，这可能确实是南向资 金对于 2026 年港股的主要担忧之一。 | [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 | | | SFC CE No. BVH021 | | | 010-59136616 | | | liuchenming@gf.com.cn ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential of the AI industry and high-growth segments like gaming, suggesting that recent market corrections present better entry opportunities [10][13][17]. E-commerce Sector - The e-commerce sector remains constrained by market sentiment and macroeconomic weakness, with low growth and profit expectations for Q4 [10][13]. - Alibaba's Qianwen App launched a 3 billion yuan subsidy campaign, achieving over 10 million orders in 9 hours, indicating a competitive AI agent market [10][13]. - Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai for approximately 50 billion yuan reflects a strategic move to strengthen its position in instant retail [10][14]. Social Entertainment Media - Bilibili and Tencent show strong advertising momentum, with Tencent's gaming fundamentals improving, particularly with the anticipated success of "Delta Action" [10][13][15]. - Bilibili's self-developed game "Shining! Luming" is set to release new products gradually in 2026, enhancing its product pipeline [10][15]. Internet Healthcare - JD Health and Alibaba Health leverage their leading platform advantages to deepen collaborations with upstream pharmaceutical manufacturers, resulting in strong revenue and profit growth [10][15]. Short Video Sector - Kuaishou's main business remains stable, with its AI technology leading in commercialization, optimizing user engagement and conversion data [10][15]. Trendy Play + IP Sector - Pop Mart announced the establishment of its European headquarters in London, planning to open 27 new stores in Europe, which will create over 150 jobs [10][15]. Long Video Sector - Multiple platforms are releasing quality series, with a focus on investment opportunities in iQIYI and Mango Excellent Media, which are currently at low valuations [10][15]. Music Streaming - Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music reported stable performance, although concerns about competition have led to valuation adjustments [10][16]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector is expected to maintain its performance driven by fundamentals, with continued recommendations for leading companies like Tencent and NetEase [10][17]. - New game reserves from companies like Perfect World and 37 Interactive Entertainment are anticipated to boost performance through product launches [10][17]. Advertising Sector - The adjustment of Shuhua will not affect the operational trends of Focus Media, with increased advertising investments expected from internet advertisers in 2026 [10][18]. AI Sector - AI is driving accelerated growth in overseas CSP cloud revenues and orders, with a new round of AI model and product iterations emerging [10][19]. - Recommendations include focusing on major cloud players like Google and Amazon, as well as domestic giants like Alibaba and Tencent [10][19].

Macro and Financial - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $339.91 billion by the end of January 2026, up $4.12 billion or 1.23% from December 2025. Gold reserves also rose for 15 months, totaling 74.19 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces [2] - The State Council is planning to promote effective investment policies, focusing on major projects in infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [2] - The People's Bank of China and eight other departments reiterated the ban on virtual currency activities, classifying them as illegal financial activities [2] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced strict regulations on the issuance of asset-backed securities tokens overseas based on domestic assets [5] - By the end of 2025, China's domestic ETF market reached approximately $860 billion, surpassing Japan to become the largest ETF market in Asia, with a net inflow of over 1.16 trillion yuan [6] - The CSRC and other departments are addressing illegal "agent rights protection" activities on social media platforms, particularly in short videos and live streaming [7] Business and Industry - The Ministry of Commerce is developing a "1+N" policy system to foster new growth points in service consumption, with specific support policies for various sectors [13] - The National Medical Insurance Administration has implemented direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals nationwide [14] - Hainan is launching a "zero tariff" policy for daily consumer goods, with the first five duty-free stores set to open on February 11 [15] - Kuaishou has been fined 119 million yuan for hosting inappropriate content and has committed to rectifying the issues [16] - Elon Musk emphasized the importance of energy production and capacity over traditional currency in future economic models [17] - China's commercial space sector is expected to enter a phase of frequent launches, following the successful test of a reusable spacecraft [18] - Nvidia's CEO expressed optimism about AI development, indicating a significant demand for AI infrastructure and chip products in the coming years [18]

Macro and Financial - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $339.91 billion by the end of January 2026, up by $41.2 billion or 1.23% from December 2025. Gold reserves also rose for 15 months, totaling 7.419 million ounces, with a month-on-month increase of 40,000 ounces [2] - The State Council is exploring policies to promote effective investment, focusing on major projects in infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [3] - The People's Bank of China and eight other departments reiterated the ban on virtual currency activities, classifying them as illegal financial activities within the country [4] - A new document was released to cultivate data circulation service institutions, aiming to enhance the marketization and value of data elements [5] Capital Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced strict regulations on the issuance of asset-backed securities tokens based on domestic assets overseas [10] - The domestic ETF market has become the largest in Asia, with a market size of approximately $860 billion by the end of 2025, surpassing Japan. The net inflow of funds into ETFs exceeded 1.16 trillion yuan, with bond ETFs attracting 552.7 billion yuan [11] - A joint effort by five departments targets illegal "agent rights protection" activities on social media platforms, particularly in short videos and live streaming [12] - Gold and silver prices have shown significant volatility, deviating from stability, with major mining companies experiencing drastic stock price changes [13][14] - The European Commission has initiated an investigation into Chinese company Goldwind Technology under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation, raising concerns about trade barriers [15][16] Business and Industry - The Ministry of Commerce is developing a "1+N" policy system to foster new growth points in service consumption, with specific support policies for various sectors [20] - Nationwide implementation of direct payment of maternity allowances to individuals has been achieved, with efforts to include more workers in the maternity insurance coverage [21] - Hainan province is launching a "zero tariff" policy for daily consumer goods, with the first five duty-free stores set to open [22] - Kuaishou has been fined 119 million yuan for issues related to inappropriate content on its platform and has committed to rectifying the situation [23] - Elon Musk emphasized the importance of energy production and capacity over traditional currency in future economic frameworks [24] - China's commercial space sector is expected to enter a phase of high-frequency launches by 2026, following successful tests of reusable spacecraft technology [24] - Nvidia's CEO expressed optimism about AI development, indicating that demand for AI infrastructure will remain strong in the coming years [25]

Core Insights - The competition in the video model space is intensifying, with ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 emerging as significant players, each with distinct focuses on video creation and production capabilities [3][6][9] - The advancements in video models are expected to bridge the gap between real and virtual content, with the potential to revolutionize video production processes by 2026 [6][9] - The Chinese AI companies are leveraging their strengths in short video and live streaming ecosystems, which are globally leading, to drive the development of video models [9][10] Group 1 - ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 is noted for its innovative approach to video generation, enhancing the ecosystem for short video creators [3][10] - Kuaishou's Kling 3.0 is recognized for its focus on professional filmmaking and industrial capabilities, targeting directors and studios [3][4] - The competition between these two models is not just about technology but also about market positioning and user engagement [4][9] Group 2 - The release of new video models by major players like Elon Musk's Grok and Google's Genie 3 indicates a broader trend towards video-centric AI solutions [6][9] - The evolution of AI in coding and multi-modal applications is seen as a key factor in making AI more accessible to the general public [4][7] - The Chinese market's unique characteristics and the existing demand for video content provide a fertile ground for AI advancements, contrasting with the U.S. market's focus on AI coding [9][10] Group 3 - ByteDance is actively fostering internal competition to identify the next major product, with multiple teams vying for leadership in AI-driven applications [13][14] - The company's dynamic culture and strong desire for innovation are highlighted as key factors in its ongoing success [13][14] - Upcoming announcements in the AI space are anticipated, suggesting a continued wave of significant developments in the industry [14]

Group 1 - The CEO of Zhaomi Technology, Yu Hao, announced that the company will distribute a total bonus of approximately 1 billion yuan, with the highest individual bonuses reaching up to 20 months' salary, reflecting a commitment to talent investment [2][4]. - Zhaomi's daily R&D expenditure is around 40 million yuan, which is equivalent to the cost of a recent concert that drew criticism for its high spending [3][4]. - The company allocates 18% of its net profit as bonuses, indicating a strong financial performance compared to industry peers [4]. Group 2 - Alibaba's Qianwen app launched a promotional campaign offering 3 billion yuan in free drinks, which quickly gained popularity, leading to over 5 million orders within 5 hours [5][6]. - The campaign caused significant traffic issues on the app, leading to temporary outages, and also positively impacted the stock prices of several tea beverage companies [5][6]. - The promotional strategy involved collaboration across various Alibaba platforms, aiming to enhance user engagement during the Spring Festival [6]. Group 3 - JD Logistics revealed the retirement life of its first courier, Jin Yicai, who receives a pension of over 4,000 yuan monthly and has savings exceeding 1 million yuan [7][8]. - This highlights the financial security and benefits provided to long-term employees within the logistics sector [8]. Group 4 - Meituan announced the acquisition of Dingdong Maicai for approximately 4.98 billion yuan, emphasizing its strategic focus on the grocery retail sector [14][15]. - Dingdong Maicai operates over 1,000 front warehouses in China, with a monthly user base exceeding 7 million, indicating its significant market presence [14]. Group 5 - Oracle is reportedly considering layoffs of 20,000 to 30,000 employees due to financial pressures related to AI data center expansions [19]. - The company is also contemplating selling its healthcare software division, Cerner, which it acquired for 28.3 billion dollars in 2022 [19]. Group 6 - Ant Group's CEO Zhao Wenbiao announced the establishment of a new "Large Model Technology Innovation Department" to focus on developing foundational models for B2B applications [20]. - This move aims to enhance Ant Group's capabilities in the AI sector and support its commercial initiatives [20]. Group 7 - The domain name AI.com was sold for a record 70 million dollars, highlighting the increasing value of AI-related assets in the market [11]. - The buyer, Kris Marszalek, plans to use the domain to launch a decentralized AI agent network [11]. Group 8 - Kuaishou was fined 1.191 billion yuan for failing to address cybersecurity risks and for not promptly handling illegal content on its platform [12][13]. - The company accepted the penalty and committed to improving its risk management and security measures [13].