Core Viewpoint - TSMC is expected to achieve record high revenue in USD this quarter, driven by the launch of NVIDIA's GB300 AI chip and the new iPhone 17 series, with projections indicating revenue will remain above $30 billion, growing by 3% to 7% quarter-over-quarter [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC will hold an earnings call on Thursday (17th) to announce last quarter and half-year financial results, as well as outlook for the current quarter [1] - Analysts predict that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may reduce the surprise factor in TSMC's profit figures for the last quarter, with gross margin and operating margin expected to approach lower limits [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The GB300 chip is set to enter mass production, becoming a key driver for TSMC's high-performance computing (HPC) business, with NVIDIA's next-generation AI chip platform, Rubin, expected to launch in 2026, further tightening capacity utilization for TSMC's 3nm family [1] - The GB300 chip enhances AI inference capabilities, supporting applications in generative AI, agent AI, and physical AI [1] Group 3: Supply Chain Insights - The GB300 chip's performance improvements are anticipated to be a major highlight in the AI industry for the second half of the year, with TSMC being the primary manufacturer [2] - Foxconn is expected to secure the largest share of orders for AI server assembly, with other companies like Quanta, Wistron, and Inventec also ramping up shipments [1][2] Group 4: Product Launches - The upcoming launch of Apple's iPhone 17 series is expected to boost TSMC's advanced process orders, with supply chain estimates indicating a single-digit percentage increase in the flagship model's inventory compared to last year [2] - The new iPhone's AI features are projected to increase silicon content, making it a significant outlet for TSMC's 3nm family, with Apple also set to be the first customer for TSMC's upcoming 2nm capacity [2]

Group 1: Tariffs and Trade - The U.S. President Trump announced a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting next month, an increase from the previously set 25% [1] - Trump suggested raising tariffs on other countries to 15% or 20%, up from the current 10% [1] - Market participants are facing uncertainty as the August 1 tariff implementation date approaches, with ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and other countries [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market reacted more calmly to the new tariff announcements compared to the sharp declines seen after the "liberation day" in April [2] - Major U.S. stock indices experienced slight declines, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down, while the Dow Jones broke its longest three-week winning streak since January [2] - Nvidia became the first company to reach a market capitalization of $4 trillion, with its stock hitting a historical high [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming U.S. CPI data and retail sales figures are expected to influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rate cuts [4][10] - The June CPI is anticipated to rise from 2.4% to 2.7% year-on-year, which could impact the Fed's rate cut considerations [11] - The June PPI and retail sales data will also be released, providing further insights into inflation and consumer spending [12] Group 4: Company Earnings - The second-quarter earnings season is set to begin, with major companies like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and TSMC reporting [17] - Netflix's upcoming earnings report is particularly significant, as its stock recently reached an all-time high, necessitating impressive results to maintain its upward trend [17] - The financial sector is expected to provide positive signals, while tech giants, especially Nvidia, may drive further market gains [17]

Group 1 - Macquarie has consolidated its preferred stocks from Japan and other Asian regions into a single focus list, currently comprising 31 high-conviction, actionable investment targets [1][2] - The key drivers unique to each stock are critical for the selection of focus stocks, with the top three performers over the past month being Advantest, SK Hynix, and Hyundai Rotem [1] - The latest addition to the focus list is d'Alba from South Korea, which is expected to have a compound annual growth rate of 42% for its core product portfolio by 2028 [1][2] Group 2 - Macquarie's focus list reflects investment opportunities across 11 Asian countries and regions, showcasing a basket of high-conviction investment ideas derived from approximately 800 stocks covered by the firm [2] - The firm has removed several companies from the focus list, including Daifuku, Denso, Freee, MGM China, and others, due to changes in analyst coverage and relative conviction levels [2] - Macquarie believes that stocks on the focus list will generate significant absolute returns within a 6-12 month timeframe [2] Group 3 - The focus list includes notable stocks such as Xiaomi Corp, SK Hynix Inc, and d'Alba Global Co Ltd, among others, with a majority positioned as long [3][4]

Macro Insights - The macro policy for the second half of the year may involve non-traditional measures, with a focus on price stability and the marginal improvement of asset prices, particularly in equity products [2][32] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive companies to reduce capital expenditures and clear excess capacity, leading to improved economic supply-demand relationships and enhanced corporate profitability [3][44] Strategy Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is identified as a key driver for a bullish market, with high-quality stocks likely to play a crucial role in pushing indices higher [3][44] - AI is recognized as a core driver of the current technological revolution, creating investment opportunities across multiple industries in the A-share market [3][44] - Key sectors to watch in July include solid-state batteries, domestic computing power, non-bank financials, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, all showing signs of marginal improvement [3][44] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3510.18, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.09% [5][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10696.10, with a weekly increase of 1.78% [8] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a slight recovery, while the construction PMI significantly improved to 52.8% due to accelerated infrastructure projects [12][13] - Consumer spending showed mixed results, with significant growth in automobile and home appliance sales driven by government subsidies, while other sectors like clothing and cosmetics remained weak [13][14] Industry Trends - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with declining sales and investment, leading to a negative outlook for related sectors [13][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to address price competition and improve product quality, particularly in the durable consumer goods sector [30][44]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock performance in 2024 has been poor, with its market value remaining around $280 billion despite significant fluctuations throughout the year, primarily due to disappointing order volumes and external market pressures [1][4]. Group 1: ASML's Financial Performance - ASML's market value dropped from a peak of $432.4 billion on July 10 to a low of $259.1 billion by November 15, representing a 40% decline [1]. - In Q3 2024, ASML reported new orders of only €2.6 billion, significantly below analyst expectations of €5.4 billion [1]. - The company sold only 44 EUV lithography machines in 2024, a decrease of 9 units or 17% from the previous year, largely due to reduced demand from major clients like Intel and Samsung [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competitors - TSMC, ASML's largest customer, experienced a remarkable stock performance in 2024, with its market value increasing from $520 billion to $1.1 trillion, nearly doubling [2]. - TSMC's revenue and net profit grew by 39% and 54% year-on-year, respectively, driven by strong demand for AI chips [2]. - Nikon has re-entered the high-end lithography market, launching a new ArF immersion lithography machine, aiming to capture market share in China following ASML's exit [5][6]. Group 3: Political and Regulatory Factors - ASML's sales to China, which constituted 49% of its revenue in Q1 2024, have been severely impacted by U.S. export restrictions, dropping to 27% by Q4 2024 and projected to fall to around 20% in 2025 [4]. - The Dutch government has expressed dissatisfaction with U.S. pressures limiting ASML's exports to China, indicating a desire for more autonomy in export policy decisions [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - ASML's confidence in market performance for 2025 is low, leading the CFO to announce that the company will stop quarterly reporting of new order amounts [8]. - The rise of China's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities is anticipated, with significant advancements in domestic lithography technology being reported [9].

Earnings Reports - Major companies such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), Citigroup (C.N), Goldman Sachs (GS.N), Netflix (NFLX.O), and TSMC (TSM.N) are scheduled to release their Q2 earnings next week [1]. Economic Data - Key economic data to be released next week includes China's Q2 GDP year-on-year, June trade balance, and June industrial output year-on-year [1]. - In the U.S., June CPI, PPI, and initial jobless claims for the week ending July 12 will be published [1]. Federal Reserve Activities - The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions, and several Fed officials are scheduled to speak next week [1].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,028, up 0.57% for the day and 19.78% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.83% to 8,668, with a year-to-date increase of 18.91%[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.29% to 5,217, with a year-to-date increase of 16.75%[3] Capital Flows - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 2.902 billion[9] Sector Performance - Major tech stocks generally declined, with Xiaomi, Meituan, Tencent, JD.com, and Baidu all falling, while Alibaba saw a slight increase[9] - Real estate stocks performed strongly, with China Oceanwide Holdings surging over 27% and Longfor Group rising nearly 21% due to debt restructuring progress[9] - Financial stocks also rose, with Zhengzhou Bank and Sunshine Insurance both increasing over 6%[9] U.S. Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.43% to 44,651, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.27% to 6,280, both breaking previous highs[9] - The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.09% to 20,631, marking two consecutive days of record highs[9] Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin surpassed USD 117,000, setting a new record, with cryptocurrency-related stocks also performing well[9] Japanese Market Insights - The Nikkei 225 index fell 0.4% to 39,821, ending a two-day rally due to concerns over U.S.-Japan tariff negotiations and upcoming elections[13] - The 20-year Japanese government bond auction saw lower demand, indicating market concerns over rising debt levels[13]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Technology Index opened lower but rose over 1.5% during the session, with key stocks like Alibaba and semiconductor companies such as Hua Hong Semiconductor and SMIC showing strength [1] - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$263.71 billion for June, a decrease of 17.7% from May but a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. The company's revenue for the first half of the year was NT$1,773.046 billion, up 40.0% year-on-year [1] - TSMC maintained its forecast for a double-digit revenue growth in USD for the year, estimating a growth rate of 24% to 26% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong technology sector has seen a valuation correction over the past quarter, with the latest valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) at 19.69 times P/E, which is below 92% of the time since the index was launched [2] - The sector is expected to have significant upside potential if favorable events act as catalysts, given its high growth and elasticity characteristics [2] Group 3 - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a structural transformation driven by geopolitical factors, leading to a decrease in the proportion of externally sourced chips from 63% in 2024 to 42% in 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing growth, with TI expanding production to meet future demand and storage prices continuing to rise [3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - In June 2025, the SW semiconductor index rose by 5.96%, underperforming the electronic industry by 2.90 percentage points but outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.46 percentage points [3][11]. - The Philadelphia semiconductor index increased by 16.57%, while the Taiwan semiconductor index rose by 8.15% [3][11]. - Among semiconductor sub-industries, integrated circuit packaging and testing (+9.24%), discrete devices (+8.18%), and semiconductor equipment (+7.05%) had the highest growth rates [3][11]. Group 2: Industry Data Update - Global semiconductor sales in May 2025 reached $58.98 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.5% [7][26]. - In May, both DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices increased, with DRAM prices rising from $1.65 to $2.10 and NAND Flash prices from $2.79 to $2.92 [28][29]. - The sales of major enterprise SSD brands decreased in the first quarter of 2025, but a recovery is expected in the second quarter [7][28]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The semiconductor heavy holdings in the 1025 fund accounted for 12.0% of the total, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase [6][19]. - The top five semiconductor heavy holdings in the 1025 fund saw a decrease in their combined share from 63.8% to 52.8% [19][23]. - The valuation of the SW semiconductor index is at 84.24x PE (TTM), which is at the 64.82% percentile since 2019 [15][19].

Group 1 - Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) surged 11% after reporting Q2 earnings that exceeded expectations and reinstated full-year guidance [1] - American Airlines Group (AAL.O) rose 7.3%, while Southwest Airlines (LUV.N) increased by 3.4% [1] - TSMC (TSM.N) saw a 0.4% increase in stock price, with Q2 sales up 39% year-over-year [1] Group 2 - MP Materials, a rare earth producer, experienced a nearly 60% surge in stock price following a multi-billion dollar contract with the U.S. Department of Defense [1]