光模块：本周光模块指数+4.84%，本月以来光模块指数+4.14%。NV 业绩&指引双 beat。但从股价看市场反应温和， 我们认为主要系担心竞争格局、预期交易充分的原因。展望 3 月，NVIDIA GTC 大会即将开幕,我们预计有望展示 CPO 交换机、rubin ultra 等方案，或将给再催化光通信板块。 IDC：本周 IDC 指数+2.41%，本月以来，IDC 指数+2.44%。OpenRouter 数据显示，2026 年 2 月 9 日至 15 日当周，中 国模型的调用量为 4.12 万亿 Token，首次超过美国模型（2.94 万亿 Token）。中国领先的芯片制造商正努力在两年 内将采用尖端工艺技术制造的芯片产量提高五倍，以满足国内人工智能行业的需求。 核心数据更新： 电信业务量收增速逐步提升。2025 年电信业务收入累计完成 1.75 万亿元，同比增长 0.7%。按照上年不变价计算的电 信业务总量同比增长 9.1%。12 月我国光模块出口金额当月同比增加 0.9%；1-12 月累计同比降低 16%。4Q25 微软/谷 歌/Meta/亚马逊资本支出分别为 299 亿/279 亿/214 亿/39 ...

行 业 研 究 2026 年 03 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -38% -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2025-03 2025-07 2025-11 电子 沪深300 相关研究报告 《海内外大模型密集更新，推动 AI 算 力需求持续增长—行业点评报告》 -2026.2.23 《JX 金属指引明确行业景气度，靶材 成为半导体金铲子—行业点评报告》 -2026.2.13 《关注半导体自主可控和涨价连锁反 应—行业点评报告》-2026.2.9 SK 海力士打响存储扩产第一枪，3 月看好设备+耗材 扩产链 ——行业点评报告 陈蓉芳（分析师） 向俊儒（联系人） chenrongfang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524120002 xiangjuru@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070018 事件：SK 海力士 150 亿美金追投，打响全球存储扩产第一枪 2 月 25 日，SK 海力士宣布 2030 年前投资 21.6 万亿韩元（约 150.7 亿美元）， 用于建设首座厂房及洁净室设施，预计洁净室的开放时间将从原定的 2027 年 5 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2026 年 3 月 1 日 策略周报 中东地缘冲突升级，节奏与影响 A 股短期或受地缘政治波动及避险情绪干扰，但外部冲击幅度有限，关注资 源品及 AI 国产算力方向。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐沛东 (8621)20328702 peidong.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518020001 证券分析师：郭晓希 | 观点回顾 4 | | --- | | 市场热点聚焦 5 | | 中观行业与景气 8 | | 一周市场总览、组合表现及热点追踪 11 | | 风险提示 13 | (8610)66229019 xiaoxi.guo@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521110001 证券分析师：徐亚 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][20]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of the end-cloud flywheel driven by the iteration of AI models, highlighting that the marketing of domestic AI large models has significantly increased user scale and call frequency since the beginning of the year [2]. - The demand for cloud computing power is driven by user scale, call frequency, and complexity of tasks, leading to a feedback loop that enhances model upgrades and increases cloud computing demand [2]. - The market for end-side AI products, such as AI glasses and intelligent robots, is rapidly evolving, with significant unmet demand for capable AI agents, suggesting new market opportunities [2][3]. - The upcoming release of the Qianwen AI glasses and other AI products is expected to drive growth in the AI glasses industry, with global shipments projected to exceed 23.687 million units by 2026 [3]. - The NVIDIA GTC conference is anticipated to showcase advancements in AI technology, with a focus on inference computing, indicating a growing demand in the computing power supply chain [4]. Summary by Sections Cloud Computing Power - The report outlines that the demand for cloud computing power is a function of user scale, call frequency, and task complexity, which has been positively impacted by the marketing of AI large models [2]. End-Side AI Products - The report notes the emergence of various end-side AI products and the public's expectation for intelligent AI agents, indicating a significant market opportunity that remains largely unmet [2]. AI Glasses Market - The report highlights the upcoming launch of Qianwen AI glasses and predicts a significant growth trajectory for the smart glasses market, with expected shipments in China to surpass 4.915 million units by 2026 [3]. Computing Power Supply Chain - The report mentions the upcoming NVIDIA GTC conference, which is expected to present new developments in AI technology and computing power solutions, reinforcing the positive outlook for the computing power supply chain [4].

Group 1 - The report highlights a peak in lock-up expirations in March 2026, with a total of HKD 87.2 billion in lock-up shares set to be released, primarily affecting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, tea beverages, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [4][33] - The upcoming earnings disclosure deadline for Hong Kong companies, particularly those with fiscal years aligned with the calendar year, is expected to exert downward pressure on stock performance, with many companies required to announce preliminary results by March 31 [4][39] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of military conflicts involving Iran, are noted as a secondary factor impacting market sentiment, although the overall effect on Hong Kong stocks may be limited due to a prevailing bullish trend in global risk assets [4][45] Group 2 - The report suggests that the period from mid to late March 2026 may present an opportunity for negative sentiment to dissipate, as the peak of the aforementioned pressures passes [4][50] - The performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to improve as major companies within the index are likely to report earnings by mid to late March, potentially alleviating market concerns [5][39] - The potential visit of former President Trump to China at the end of March to early April could also positively influence market sentiment [5][52] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market does not exhibit a significant seasonal effect post-Chinese New Year, with the Hang Seng Index showing only a 46.7% probability of rising during this period over the past 15 years [7][13] - The report emphasizes that the recent appreciation of the Renminbi is not driven by domestic economic fundamentals, which may lead to a divergence between currency strength and Hong Kong stock performance [20][21] - The report notes that the core variable influencing foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks is the expectation of China's economic fundamentals rather than short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate [21][22]

证券研究报告 | 2026年2月29日 AI周报： AI快速发展，AI HALO资产价值彰显 行业研究 · 行业专题 计算机&通信 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：熊莉 021-61761067 xiongli1@guosen.com.cn S0980519030002 证券分析师：艾宪 0755-22941051 aixian@guosen.com.cn S0980524090001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率 图1：美国基建股指数价格波动（25年1月-26年2月） 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 n AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率。 Ø 定义：HALO = Heavy Assets（重资产）+ Low Obsolescence（低淘汰率）。其中，重资产是指其商业模式建立在庞大的实物资本基础之上，具有很高 复制壁垒（例如成本、监管、建设时间、工程复杂性、网络整合难度等）的资产；低淘汰率是指资产的经济相关性能够穿越技术周期而持久存在（即 商业模式、资产是刚需，不会因AI革命而被取代）。 Ø 代表资产：HALO代表 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年2月29日 AI周报： AI快速发展，AI HALO资产价值彰显 行业研究 · 行业专题 计算机&通信 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 证券分析师：熊莉 021-61761067 xiongli1@guosen.com.cn S0980519030002 证券分析师：艾宪 0755-22941051 aixian@guosen.com.cn S0980524090001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率 图1：美国基建股指数价格波动（25年1月-26年2月） 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Wind，国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 图2：美国SaaS指数价格波动（25年1月-26年2月） n AI HALO：AI领域的重资产、低淘汰率。 Ø 定义：HALO = Heavy Assets（重资产）+ Low Obsolescence（低淘汰率）。其中，重资产是指其商业模式建立在庞大的实物资本基础之上，具有很高 复制壁垒（例如成本、监管、建设时间、工程复杂性、网络整合难度 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 避险逻辑、韩流寒流，港股卖空占比高达 20%——国泰海通香江策论之数据周报 Safe-Haven Trades, Korea Siphoning Liquidity, HK SSR at 20% — GTHT Global Macro Strategy Weekly Data Update 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 国泰海通香江策论之数据周报包含"流动性数据""重点研究报告荟萃""每日一图系列"三部分，旨在通过关键流动性指 标、精选研究观点与市场图表解析，集中呈现本周数据 ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 1 Mar 2026 国泰海通香江策论 Global Macro Strategy 避险逻辑、韩流寒流，港股卖空占比高达 20%——国泰海通香江策论之数据周报 Safe-Haven Trades, Korea Siphoning Liquidity, HK SSR at 20% — GTHT Global Macro Strategy Weekly Data Update 张忆东 Yidong Zhang 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang yd.zhang@htisec.com amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 国泰海通香江策论之数据周报包含"流动性数据""重点研究报告荟萃""每日一图系列"三部分，旨在通过关键流动性指 标、精选研究观点与市场图表解析，集中呈现本周数据 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in demand for computing power driven by advancements in AI models, particularly in video generation and multi-modal applications, indicating a structural shift in the industry towards higher quality and more complex models [6][11][17] - The introduction of GLM-5 and its "Interleaved Thinking" mechanism represents a new paradigm where computing power is exchanged for intelligence, leading to increased computational demands for inference tasks [13][27] - The supply side is expected to transition from a state of scarcity to structural balance by 2026, with improvements in domestic chip performance and the approval of NVIDIA's H200 chips for the Chinese market [42][43] Summary by Sections Section 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Seedance 2.0 has shown a strong user demand with long wait times for video generation, indicating a critical need for computing resources [11][12] - The demand for computing power is expected to escalate as major internet companies continue to develop large-scale AI models, with a notable focus on multi-modal capabilities [17][18] Section 2: Rapid Release of Computing Demand - The competition among leading internet firms is intensifying, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and model development, leading to a sharp increase in inference computing demand [32][34] - The report predicts that by 2026, the AI application landscape will expand significantly, driving real-time inference computing consumption [6][33] Section 3: Supply Side Improvements - The approval of NVIDIA's H200 chips is expected to alleviate computing power shortages for major internet companies, enhancing model iteration speeds [42] - Domestic chip manufacturers are making strides in performance and ecosystem development, with several companies achieving significant advancements in their products [43][44] Section 4: Full-Chain Inflation in Domestic Computing Power - The report anticipates a "full-chain inflation" cycle in the computing power industry by 2026, with growth expected across various segments including AI data centers and cloud services [49] - Major tech companies are projected to increase their capital expenditures significantly, further driving demand for computing resources [51] Section 5: Related Companies - The report identifies several companies as relevant to the industry, including Dongyangguang, Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Wangsu Technology, and others [4][55]