Summary of Conference Call on Coal Industry Industry Overview - The coal industry is entering a new cycle with significant changes expected in 2026, including a more market-oriented long-term contract mechanism that allows for floating pricing and negotiation between supply and demand parties, eliminating annual minimum requirements while granting priority in transportation allocation to long-term contract holders [1][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The flexibility in pricing and contract terms is expected to enhance profit elasticity for coal companies during high price periods, but may weaken profit guarantees during price declines due to potential non-fulfillment by power plants [1][5]. - **Futures Price Movements**: Recent significant declines in coking coal futures prices are attributed to both fundamental factors (domestic mine restarts, increased imports, and reduced steel mill profits) and technical factors (changes in delivery standards by the Dalian Commodity Exchange) [1][6]. - **Price Trends**: Current port prices for thermal coal remain stable, while coking coal prices have decreased, indicating a divergence in supply and demand across different segments [1][7]. - **Inventory Levels**: Power plant inventories across 25 provinces are slightly lower than last year, with a decrease in available days and an increase in daily consumption. Port inventories have increased, but year-on-year comparisons show a decline [1][9]. - **International Market Influence**: International thermal coal futures prices have shown slight increases, while crude oil prices have decreased, with northern heating demand positively impacting thermal coal prices [1][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Electricity Generation Trends**: A decline in hydroelectric power growth and a negative growth rate for thermal power generation indicate a competitive disadvantage for thermal power due to the encroachment of clean energy [1][11]. - **Future Coal Market Outlook**: The coal market is expected to remain strong, with anticipated increases in demand during the winter peak. Supply constraints due to production checks and safety inspections will likely keep prices elevated, with forecasts suggesting prices could range from 800 to 1,000 RMB depending on weather conditions [1][12][13]. - **Investment Recommendations**: In the current oversold state, it is suggested to focus on high-value investments in coal companies, particularly those with strong profit elasticity. Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi Coal, and leading firms like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [1][15][18]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment towards the coal market remains optimistic, with expectations of price increases driven by seasonal demand and supply constraints. Investors are encouraged to monitor market dynamics closely for potential investment opportunities [1][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting an "Overweight" rating for the sector, indicating expected performance above the market average [36]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of coal is tightening due to stricter safety and environmental regulations, which is expected to support price increases in the future [3][8]. - It notes that the demand for thermal coal is anticipated to rise during the winter heating season, further driving prices upward after adjustments [3][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term contracts for coal supply, as mandated by the National Development and Reform Commission, to ensure stable energy supply [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for signing long-term coal supply contracts, requiring power generation companies to secure at least 80% of their coal needs based on projected consumption [8]. - A new coal-to-natural gas project in Xinjiang has commenced, focusing on green development in the coal chemical sector [5]. 2. Domestic Thermal Coal Prices - As of November 21, thermal coal prices have shown stability with slight increases in certain regions, such as a rise of 5 CNY/ton in Datong [9]. - The overall thermal coal price index remains stable, with the Qinhuangdao port price holding steady at 710 CNY/ton [9]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have decreased to 62.56 USD/barrel, reflecting a drop of 2.84% [16]. - The report notes a rising ratio of international oil prices to coal prices, indicating potential implications for coal pricing dynamics [16]. 4. Inventory Levels in the Bohai Rim - Coal inventory levels in the Bohai Rim have increased, with average daily coal inflow rising by 4.49% week-on-week [19]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 25.983 million tons, up 6.94% from the previous week [19]. 5. Domestic Coastal Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates have decreased to 47.27 CNY/ton, a decline of 8.25% [27]. - In contrast, international freight rates have seen slight increases, with Indonesian coal freight rates rising by 0.4% [27]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting metrics such as EPS and PE ratios for companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating, suggesting that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [40]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the supply of coal is tightening, with expectations for coal prices to rise after adjustments due to seasonal demand and regulatory pressures [3][5]. - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal prices, which have shown stability with slight increases in certain categories, particularly thermal coal [10][14]. - The report suggests that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rebound during the winter heating season, which will likely support price increases [3][10]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued guidelines for long-term coal supply contracts for 2026, emphasizing the need for power companies to secure contracts based on actual coal demand [9]. - A new joint venture in Xinjiang aims to focus on green development in the coal chemical sector, indicating a shift towards sustainable practices [5][9]. Price Trends - As of November 21, thermal coal prices at major production sites have remained stable, with slight increases noted in specific regions [10][11]. - The report indicates that international coal prices have also shown stability, with some fluctuations depending on the region [11][14]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes an increase in daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports, while outflow has decreased, indicating a tightening supply situation [22]. - Coal inventories at major ports have risen, suggesting a potential buildup ahead of increased winter demand [22]. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs have decreased, while international shipping rates have seen slight increases, reflecting varying market conditions [30]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections, indicating a range of investment opportunities [34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal stocks on dips [12][13] - The report highlights a tight supply situation, with coal prices stabilizing at a new platform, and emphasizes the high profitability, cash flow, and dividend yield of quality coal companies [12][13] - The report suggests that the coal sector is undervalued and has potential for valuation enhancement, with a focus on high dividend yields and cyclical elasticity [12][13] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of November 22, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 827 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [28] - The price for thermal coal from Shanxi at the pit head is 780 RMB/ton, up by 15 RMB/ton week-on-week [28] - International thermal coal prices have seen slight increases, with Newcastle thermal coal at 86.5 USD/ton, up by 1.5 USD/ton [28] Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 91.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points week-on-week [46] - Daily coal consumption in 17 inland provinces has increased by 14.7 thousand tons/day, a rise of 4.37% week-on-week [12] - The report notes that the daily coal consumption in 8 coastal provinces has also risen by 7.5 thousand tons/day, up by 4.18% week-on-week [12] Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventories in coastal provinces increased by 25.5 thousand tons week-on-week, while inland provinces saw an increase of 89.1 thousand tons [12] - The report indicates a decrease in available days of coal supply in both coastal and inland regions [12] Company Performance - The report emphasizes the strong performance of companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and others, which are expected to maintain stable operations and robust earnings [13] - It also highlights companies with higher elasticity such as Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and others, suggesting they are worth monitoring [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to maintain a stable and slightly strong price trend due to seasonal demand increases and supply constraints [7][75] - The overall supply and demand for coal remain balanced, with port coal prices holding steady [14][73] - The report highlights the resilience of leading coal companies, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability characteristics [7][75] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - As of November 21, the price of thermal coal at northern ports is 834 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [14][15] - Production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region increased by 0.14 percentage points to 89.93% as of November 19, indicating stable supply [21][73] - Electricity consumption in October reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, driven by low base effects and seasonal heating demand [14][73] 2. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at the Jing Tang port decreased to 1780 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week [39][40] - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.07 percentage points to 84.3% during the week of November 12-19, indicating a slight recovery in supply [39][74] - The average crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port remains high, with a seven-day average of 1,339 vehicles [39][74] 3. Coke - The report notes that coking enterprises have completed four rounds of price increases, improving profit margins [52][75] - The production capacity utilization of coking enterprises increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 74.21% [52][75] - The average profit per ton of coke increased to approximately 19 CNY/ton, reflecting improved profitability in the sector [56] 4. Anthracite - The price of anthracite coal remains stable, with the small block price at 930 CNY/ton as of November 21 [68][75] 5. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, all of which are rated as "Buy" [9][75] - The report emphasizes the strong financial health and growth potential of leading coal companies, suggesting a favorable investment environment [7][75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal prices are stable, with the spot price for thermal coal at 834 RMB/ton as of November 21, 2025, showing no change from the previous week [1] - Supply side: The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region is 2.0463 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons or 3.50% from the previous week [1] - Demand side: The average daily outflow from the same ports is 1.78 million tons, a decrease of 94,400 tons or 5.04% from the previous week, indicating limited demand release [1] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has increased to 25.933 million tons, up by 1.64 million tons or 6.74% from the previous week [1] - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the heating season in northern regions and increasing electricity consumption in southern regions [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,834.89 points, down 3.45% from the previous week, while the coal sector index fell by 7.12% [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector was 82.296 billion RMB, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with specific prices reported as follows: - Datong South Suburb 5500 kcal thermal coal at 700 RMB/ton, up 15 RMB/ton [16] - Inner Mongolia Chifeng 4000 kcal thermal coal at 430 RMB/ton, unchanged [16] - Yanzhou 6000 kcal thermal coal at 1,130 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton [16] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remains stable at 698 RMB/ton [18] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow of coal to the Bohai Rim ports increased, while the outflow decreased, indicating a buildup in inventory [26][30] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 123, down 10% from the previous week [30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes fell to 47.27 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.25% [33] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (601225) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 118.08 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 12.71 billion, down 27.22% year-on-year [1] - The report highlights that coal prices are on the rise, supporting profit recovery, and the coal-electricity integration strengthens long-term advantages [1] - The report anticipates that coal prices will continue to rise in the fourth quarter due to increased winter storage demand from downstream power plants and stricter safety inspections affecting coal production [7] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of CNY 40.10 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.91%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6.03%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 5.07 billion, down 26.59% year-on-year but up 79.08% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The average selling price of coal for the first three quarters of 2025 was CNY 540.2 per ton, a decrease of 12.63% year-on-year, while the production and sales volumes were 130.37 million tons and 189.20 million tons, respectively, showing slight year-on-year increases of 2.03% and 0.40% [7] - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 at CNY 17.94 billion, CNY 20.59 billion, and CNY 23.35 billion, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 12x, 11x, and 10x [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its coal production capacity, with recent approvals for capacity increases at its coal mines, which will contribute to stable growth in its coal business [7] - The integration of coal and electricity production is expected to improve the company's profitability, creating a complete industrial chain from coal mining to electricity generation [7] - The current dividend yield is approximately 4.8%, based on a 60% payout ratio for 2025 [7]

Group 1 - Port coal prices remain stable while production coal prices continue to rise, indicating a potential for price increases as demand is expected to be released [2][3] - Supply constraints persist due to strong regulatory oversight, limiting the possibility of significant increases in production despite entering the peak season [2][3] - Daily coal consumption by power plants is increasing, and as temperatures drop and industrial production ramps up towards year-end, demand for electricity and coal is expected to gradually materialize [2][3] Group 2 - Port inventories have accumulated due to shipping restrictions but are expected to decline as weather improves, while tight supply remains due to railway capacity limitations [2][3] - The Daqin line's average daily transport volume increased by 1.6% week-on-week, while the Tanghu line saw a slight decrease [4] - Northern port inventories increased by 6.3% week-on-week, indicating a total of 24.58 million tons, but decreased by 9.2% year-on-year [4] Group 3 - The coal market is experiencing mixed price movements, with port coking coal prices declining while production prices show varied trends [5][6] - Coking coal prices are expected to remain weak and stable in the short term due to supply recovery and reduced demand from steel mills [5][6] - Investment recommendations include focusing on high spot price elasticity stocks and stable growth companies within the coal sector [6]

—— 信用利差周度跟踪 20251122 [[Table_R Table_Report eportTTime ime]] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 债券研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 李一爽 uthor固定收益首席分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500520050002 | | 联系电话：+86 18817583889 | | 邮 箱： liyishuang@cindasc.com | 朱金保 固定收益分析师 执业编号：S1500524080002 联系电话：+86 15850662789 联系电话：+86 15850662789 邮 箱： zhujinbao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金隅 大厦B 座 邮编：100031 3利率平稳信用窄幅波动 民企地产利差继续抬升 [Table_ReportDate] 2 ...

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, with October's PPI year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1%. Coal prices are expected to stabilize, and the lowest coal price in 2025 may represent a policy bottom. The report anticipates further supply-side policies to be introduced [5][6] - The coal industry is viewed as being in a golden era due to energy transformation, with limited supply elasticity and increasing extraction difficulties. The report suggests that coal's status as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, and coal prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Market Overview - As of November 21, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal closing price is 834 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with slight increases in prices from Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi [3][29] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.508 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 13,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [3][37] - The inventory index for thermal coal is 188.8, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.6 [3][37] 2. Coking Coal - As of November 21, 2025, the price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1780 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 CNY/ton [4][66] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 758,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [4][66] - The coking coal inventory has increased by 20.9 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 43.2% [4][66] 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily consumption of the six major power plants has slightly increased to 805,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1% [37][39] - The operating rates for methanol and urea are at 88.8% and 83.9%, respectively, indicating a high level of activity compared to historical levels [3][39] - The report highlights that coal supply is expected to remain tight due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [5][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from the coal price cycle are also recommended, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of coal-electricity integration models to mitigate cyclical fluctuations, recommending companies like Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]