Core Viewpoint - New Five Feng (600975) is experiencing a significant increase in losses, with a projected net profit of -700 million to -960 million yuan for Q4 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the same period last year [1] Financial Performance - The company's Q4 losses reached 780 million yuan, a substantial increase from a loss of 58 million yuan in Q3 2025 [2] - The decline in pig prices and the company's accounting practices contributed to the losses, with pig prices dropping significantly compared to the previous year [2][3] - New Five Feng's pig sales volume increased to 1.867 million heads in Q4 2025, a 66.4% increase from 1.1222 million heads in Q3 2025, exacerbating the losses [6] Industry Context - The overall industry is facing a downturn, with other companies like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Wens Foodstuff Group (300498) also reporting minimal profits or breakeven in Q4 2025 [2][8] - The domestic pig price trend showed a significant drop, with prices falling from over 14 yuan/kg in the first half of 2025 to as low as 10.9 yuan/kg by mid-October [3][11] - New Five Feng's cost structure is not competitive, with estimated breeding costs between 14.7 and 15.3 yuan/kg, leading to further financial strain [4] Accounting Adjustments - The company has made necessary accounting adjustments due to falling pig prices, including provisions for inventory impairment on biological assets [7] - The impact of these adjustments, along with the operational losses, will be clarified in the upcoming annual report [7] Long-term Outlook - The year 2025 is projected to be a low point for the pig farming industry, with overall profitability expected to be slightly better than in 2023 [12] - The concentration of losses in Q4 2025 is expected to be more severe compared to the average losses seen in 2023 [13]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province is facing challenges in supply chain management due to recent rain and snow, prompting local supermarkets and agricultural markets to enhance their supply efforts to ensure food availability for residents [1][2][3] Group 1: Supply Chain Management - Nanjing's agricultural market has increased vegetable supply to 4,343 tons on January 19, a 37.8% rise compared to the previous week's daily average, with 3,000 tons of storable vegetables and 10,000 tons of fresh vegetables secured as backup [1] - Major meat suppliers like Su Food Group have signed agreements with large farming enterprises, resulting in a fresh meat supply of 51 tons and frozen meat of 122.4 tons, which is a 15.8% increase from normal levels [1] Group 2: Supermarket Operations - Supermarkets like Hema have increased their stock of essential goods by 50% and boosted delivery capacity by 20%, while also providing warm meals and heating supplies for delivery personnel [2] - Su Guo Supermarket has implemented direct sourcing to stabilize prices, supplying 86 tons of grains, 150 tons of vegetables, and 350 tons of fruits daily across 60 stores, while also preparing holiday food gift boxes [2] Group 3: Government Response - The Nanjing Municipal Bureau of Commerce has activated an emergency plan, organizing meetings with key enterprises to ensure accountability and monitoring supply data from 22 major companies [2] - Daily monitoring has shown that the retail price of 10 common vegetable types is 7.4 yuan per kilogram, and three types of pork are priced at 30.2 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to the previous week [2] - The government is enhancing inter-departmental collaboration to address logistical challenges and is committed to maintaining a stable supply of essential goods [3]

A股逐步迎来业绩预告高峰。截至1月20日晚间，已有超过500家A股公司披露2025年业绩预告或业绩快 报。 2025年，在AI技术的强势赋能下，科技领域多个细分赛道保持高景气态势，产业链上下游大量企业凭 借技术迭代与需求释放，实现了业绩的稳健增长。而光伏、白酒、生猪养殖等细分领域受市场环境波 动、供需格局调整等因素影响，企业业绩承压。 百余家公司预计净利翻倍 据证券时报记者统计，截至1月20日19时，共有525家A股公司披露2025年业绩预告或业绩快报，其中约 200家企业预计2025年业绩实现增长，逾百家企业预计归母净利润最高增幅将超过100%。 目前预计净利润增幅最高的是回盛生物。该公司主要从事兽用药品、饲料及添加剂研发、产销。1月9 日，公司披露业绩预告，预计2025年归母净利润2.35亿元至2.71亿元，同比增长1265.93%至1444.54%。 回盛生物表示，2025年公司积极开拓海内外市场，营业收入实现国内、国外双增长。收入的增长促进了 净利润同比大幅增长，同时公司技术创新升级、制剂与原料药产能利用率提升及原料药价格上涨等因素 驱动盈利能力提升。 良好的业绩推动回盛生物股价大幅攀升。自业绩预告披 ...

Group 1: Company Announcements - Hunan Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd. (Mingming Hen Mang) has officially launched its global offering and plans to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on January 28, 2024, with a total of 14.1011 million shares available for sale, expecting to raise approximately HKD 3.124 billion after expenses [1] - Good Products Co. has announced an expected net loss of RMB 120 million to RMB 160 million for the fiscal year 2025, primarily due to a decline in sales revenue and adjustments affecting gross margins [3] - Junlebao Dairy has submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, reporting revenues of RMB 175.5 billion, RMB 198.3 billion, and RMB 151.3 billion for the years 2023 to 2025, with net profit increasing from RMB 558,000 to RMB 9 billion, a growth of over 700% [4] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Taobao Flash Delivery has announced a subsidy of nearly RMB 2 billion for city couriers during the 2026 Spring Festival to enhance their income and reward their commitment [8] - Recent data indicates that trophy-related searches on Taobao have increased by over 50% year-on-year, with customized trophies for self-gifting seeing the highest demand [8] - The convenience food market in China shows that Kang Shifu has further increased its market share, with new products accounting for 2.51% of the market in Q4 2025, significantly ahead of competitors [17] Group 3: Financial Performance and Projections - Salia reported a net profit increase of 16% to 3 billion yen for the period from September to November 2025, with sales reaching 70.2 billion yen, a 15% increase [9] - Nanjing Xinbai expects a net loss of between RMB 839 million and RMB 1.026 billion for 2025, primarily due to goodwill and intangible asset impairments [18] - Laiyifen anticipates a net loss of approximately RMB 170 million for 2025, with adjustments to store numbers and gross margins impacting performance [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Viewpoints - Short-term recovery in pig prices is expected, while the breeding capacity remains high [3] - The industry is undergoing a significant policy transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation [6][17] - The high-quality development of the industry is essential, with cost-leading and farmer-inclusive companies likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [6][17] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine breeding sector saw a decline of 4.9%, primarily due to market sentiment and concerns over capacity reduction [5][16] - In 2025, the national pig output reached 71.973 million heads, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year, while the breeding sow inventory decreased by 2.9% [5][16] - As of January 18, 2026, pig prices rose to 13.25 CNY/kg, indicating a recovery in the industry [5][16] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is experiencing a contradiction of "high capacity, weak consumption," with the price of broiler chickens at 3.65 CNY/kg, down 3.18% week-on-week [7][18] - The impact of avian influenza in France may lead to reduced imports of breeding chickens, potentially increasing prices for parent stock [7][18] - The industry is expected to see a continued advantage for leading companies due to integrated operations and contract farming [7][18] 3. Feed Industry - The prices of various aquatic products have shown recovery, with significant year-on-year increases for certain species [19][20] - Hai Da Group is recommended for its clear long-term growth path and plans to increase its dividend payout ratio [20] 4. Pet Industry - The competitive landscape in the pet food sector is becoming more concentrated, with leading brands outperforming mid-tier brands [10][21] - Despite concerns over Q4 2025 performance, the growth outlook for the pet industry remains strong, with domestic sales expected to continue growing [10][21] - Recommended companies include Zhongchong Co., which is positioned for growth in both domestic and international markets [11][21] 5. Agricultural Products - Domestic soybean meal prices fell by 2.1%, while corn prices increased by 0.8% due to declining inventories [26] - The egg market is showing strength, with prices rising by 1.4% [26] - The agricultural sector is viewed as having significant investment value due to its historical low valuations and the need to protect farmers' incomes [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [3][5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector is expected to experience upward price trends, particularly in beef and dairy, while grain prices are stabilizing at historical lows [1][3][5]. - The supply-demand dynamics for corn and soybeans remain loose, with global ending stocks projected to increase, while domestic prices are expected to find strong support at current low levels [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in the global ending stocks-to-use ratio by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38% [15][16]. - Domestic corn prices are currently at a historical low, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report indicates a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons for the 25/26 season [33][34]. - Short-term support for soybean prices is expected from import costs, while long-term trends are anticipated to improve as Brazilian soybeans come to market [35]. Wheat - The USDA report predicts a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio increasing by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are expected to stabilize at low levels, with current prices at 2,515 yuan per ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in U.S. beef production for 2026, with prices expected to rise by approximately 5.1% year-on-year [3][19]. - Domestic beef prices are anticipated to maintain an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and lower imports [3][19]. Dairy - The USDA predicts a slight reduction in U.S. milk ending stocks, with prices expected to remain favorable due to a contraction in domestic dairy cow capacity [3][24]. - The interplay between meat and dairy sectors is expected to drive a recovery in dairy prices [3][24]. Pork - The USDA projects a 2.69% increase in U.S. pork production for 2026, with prices expected to remain stable at high levels [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being managed to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - U.S. chicken production is expected to recover, with prices projected to perform well due to improved consumer demand [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is anticipated to be ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, such as YouRan Agriculture and MuYuan [5][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the beef prices in the US are expected to maintain an upward trend in 2026, while global corn and soybean ending stocks for the 25/26 season are projected to increase [1][3]. - The agricultural products in the planting chain are currently in a bottom consolidation phase, awaiting upward movement [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Corn - The USDA's January supply and demand report forecasts a global corn production increase of 13.05 million tons (approximately +1.02%) to 1.283 billion tons for the 25/26 season, with a corresponding increase in global ending stocks [15][16]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to rise by 0.86 percentage points to 22.38%, with China's ratio increasing by 1.94 percentage points [15][17]. - Domestic corn prices are at historical lows, with a current price of 2318 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.04% and a year-on-year increase of 10.30% [18]. Soybeans - The USDA report predicts a global soybean production increase of 3.14 million tons for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 2.04 million tons (approximately +1.67%) to 124 million tons [33][34]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.39 percentage points to 29.40% [33][34]. - Short-term focus is on South American weather, while long-term trends are expected to improve due to reduced domestic soybean stocks and strong import support [35][37]. Wheat - The USDA's January report indicates a global wheat production increase of 4.36 million tons (approximately +0.52%) for the 25/26 season, with ending stocks projected to rise by 3.38 million tons [47][48]. - The ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to increase by 0.37 percentage points to 33.77% [47][48]. - Domestic wheat prices are currently at 2515 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.15% [50][52]. Beef - The USDA forecasts a decrease in US beef production for 2026, with an expected overall price increase of approximately 5.1% [3][19]. - The report anticipates that domestic beef prices will maintain a bottoming upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import constraints [3][22]. Dairy - The report notes a slight decrease in US milk ending stocks for 2026, with expectations for domestic raw milk prices to begin an upward trend due to reduced production capacity and import reductions [3][24][26]. Pork - The USDA predicts a 2.69% increase in US pork production for 2026, with overall prices expected to remain high [4][28]. - Domestic breeding sow capacity is being steadily controlled, which is expected to support industry profitability [4][29]. Poultry - The report indicates that US chicken supply is expected to recover, with a slight increase in production and consumption [6][30]. - Domestic egg supply is projected to remain ample, with a year-on-year increase in ending stocks by 23.5% [6][33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the livestock, pork, poultry, and pet sectors, including YouRan Agriculture, Modern Agriculture, and MuYuan Co., among others [6][8].

（记者 王瀚黎） 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——"一周干完一年的活"，一款AI编程工具让硅谷程序员集体"上瘾"！科技公 司CEO：一辈子钻研的技能被它一次性解决，让人兴奋又恐惧 每经AI快讯，牧原股份1月20日晚间发布公告称，公司第五届第十二次董事会会议于2026年1月20日以 通讯的方式召开。会议审议了《关于确定H股全球发售及在香港联合交易所有限公司上市相关事宜的议 案》等文件。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from GF Securities indicates a significant increase in the total output of market pigs by listed companies in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 25% to 111.53 million heads, and a 30% increase to 90.39 million heads when excluding Muyuan Foods [1][3]. Group 1: Market Output - In December 2025, the total output of market pigs from listed companies reached 19.05 million heads, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.1% and a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [2]. - The output of market pigs from listed companies, excluding Muyuan Foods, was 12.07 million heads in December, with a month-on-month growth of 8.0% and a year-on-year growth of 35.7% [2][3]. - Major companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Dekang Agriculture showed varying month-on-month growth rates in December, with increases of 5.7%, 4.8%, 15.4%, and 4.1% respectively [3]. Group 2: Piglet Sales and Prices - The overall sales volume of piglets from listed companies saw a significant increase in 2025, with a notable rise in the proportion of piglet sales [2][4]. - The price of 7 kg piglets has rebounded to 307 RMB per head, attributed to the upcoming replenishment season and positive market sentiment regarding pig prices in the second half of 2026 [1][5]. - The average selling price of pigs in December was estimated at 11.53 RMB per kilogram, showing a month-on-month decline of 1.4% [4]. Group 3: Company Performance - In 2025, major companies reported the following cumulative outputs: Muyuan Foods at 77.98 million heads (+19%), Wens Foodstuff Group at 40.48 million heads (+34%), New Hope Liuhe at 17.55 million heads (+6%), and Dekang Agriculture at 10.83 million heads (+23%) [3]. - Smaller companies like Tangrenshen, Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture also reported varying outputs, with Tangrenshen showing a year-on-year increase of 23% [3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The industry is currently facing cumulative losses, which may lead to continued reduction in pig production capacity [1][5]. - The breeding sow inventory decreased by 0.22% month-on-month in December, indicating potential challenges in production [5].

牧原股份公告称，公司第五届董事会第十二次会议以通讯方式召开，会议审议通过《关于确定H股全球 发售及在香港联合交易所有限公司上市相关事宜的议案》。董事会同意相关安排，包括刊发、签署招股 说明书等文件，处理发行程序及相关事项，还授权相关人士处理上市具体事务。 ...