证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 02 月 02 日 行业及产业 医药生物 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《医药行业跟踪报告：医药板块迎来开门红， 2026 年继续看好创新出海和硬科技》 2026-01-13 《2026 年度医药行业策略：创新出海新征程， 寻找需求新增量》2026-01-05 张智聪 S0820525020002 021-32229888-25524 zhangzhicong@ajzq.com ——医药行业跟踪报告 MNC 重金加码中国创新药，中国 IO2.0 双抗出海迈出关键一步 强于大市 投资要点： 医药板块行情复盘：本周（1/26~2/1）市场以震荡调整为主，SW 医药生物指数下跌 3.31%， 在申万一级行业指数中排名 22/31，跑输沪深 300 指数（+0.08%）；各细分板块中，血液 制品（-0.99%）、疫苗（-1.65%）表现相对较好，主要与尼帕病毒概念相关，部分 CXO 个 股由于业绩催化表现较为突出，线下药店（-4.83%）和医院（-4.47%）表现较弱。港股创新 药回调明显，恒生生物科技指 ...

发布时间：2026-02-02 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 8338.3 | | 52 周最高 | 9323.49 | | 52 周最低 | 6876.88 | 行业相对指数表现 -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:徐智敏 SAC 登记编号:S1340525100003 Email: xuzhimin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 2025 年有数十个 AI 衍生的管线进入人体临床试验，但回顾过往 管线来看，与任何其他新技术的发展一样，AI 制药的发展之路也是曲 折的。AI 制药极大加速了临床早期的进程同时亦能取得超出传统经验 水平的 1 期成功率（80%~90% vs 40%~65%），而在 2 期及后续的进 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 19.25 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company has announced a significant overseas deal for its long-acting peptide drug metabolism AI discovery platform, involving an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestone payments of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestone payments of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a double-digit percentage royalty on net sales to AstraZeneca [1][2]. - This transaction is noted as the largest deal in the domestic pharmaceutical sector for the year, comparable to a previous major deal between 3SBio and Pfizer [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upfront payment, leading to a projected rapid year-on-year growth in net profit for 2026 [1]. - The long-acting metabolism platform is considered rare globally, with only Camurus having a similar platform, which enhances the company's competitive position in the overseas weight loss market [2]. Summary by Sections Transaction Details - The deal with AstraZeneca includes an upfront payment of USD 1.2 billion, potential R&D milestones of up to USD 3.5 billion, and sales milestones of up to USD 13.8 billion, along with a royalty on net sales [2]. - The platform includes core assets such as GIPR/GLP-1R and three preclinical weight loss pipelines, with plans for collaboration on four additional projects [2]. Platform Mechanism - The company possesses a leading liposome platform, and the fluid crystal technology allows for long-term release of active ingredients, enabling monthly or longer dosing [2]. Pipeline Potential - The company has a robust pipeline including EGFR ADC, which is expected to enter Phase III clinical trials both domestically and internationally, and other oncology and autoimmune therapies [3]. - The ADC pipeline targets HER3, B7H3, DLL3, and aims to address gaps in lung squamous carcinoma treatment [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.45 billion, RMB 8.46 billion, and RMB 5.60 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.39, RMB 0.73, and RMB 0.49 [4][9]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 24 times for 2026, with a target price adjustment reflecting market conditions [4][11].

中国创新药出海BD再获里程碑式突破！ 1月30日，石药集团宣布已与全球生物制药领导者阿斯利康签订战略研发合作与授权协议，以利用集团 专有的缓释给药技术平台及多肽药物AI发现平台，开发创新长效多肽药物。若后续所有研发及销售里 程碑均达成，石药集团方面有权获得总计高达185亿美元的款项。 据不完全统计，本次交易刷新了中国药企BD交易总金额最高纪录，超过了此前启德医药与 Biohaven&AimedBio达成的一笔130亿美元交易。其12亿美元的预付款，仅次于此前三生制药与辉瑞就 PD-1/VEGF达成的数额。 不过，二级市场反应不佳，石药集团股价高开低走，盘中一度狂泻近13%，收跌10.2%。什么原因？分 析人士指出，或系多方面因素叠加影响。 从石药集团股价近日表现来看，市场可能提前定价。在此次协议公告前，石药集团已连续多日强势上 涨，尤其在1月28日，股价单日大涨6.14%创年内新高。公告发布后，部分资金可能选择获利了结，形 成"利好兑现"式抛压。 从业绩贡献来看，尽管协议总金额高达185亿美元，但预付款为12亿美元，其余173亿美元为研发与销售 里程碑付款，需在未来数年、多个临床阶段成功推进后方可兑现，短期现 ...

医药生物 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 01 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 38% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究报告 《原料药行业价格更新—行业周报》 -2026.1.25 《业绩为王，继续重点推荐创新药产 业链板块性机会 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2026.1.18 《减重新靶点初显锋芒，小核酸疗法 前景可期—行业周报》-2026.1.11 供需双改善，国内临床 CRO 行业进入发展新阶段 ——行业周报 | 余汝意（分析师） | 刘艺（联系人） | | --- | --- | | | liuyi1@kysec.cn | | yuruyi@kysec.cn | | | 证书编号：S0790523070002 | 证书编号：S0790124070022 | liuyi1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790124070022 中国临床 CRO 行业进入"复苏+稳健增长"新阶段，供需结构持续改善 中国创新药产业已完成从十年前的"离岸外包服务模式"到如今"全球创新资产的 贡献者"的跃迁。临 ...

恒生医疗低开低走大跳水，截至收盘下跌2.54%。石药集团大跌10.2%，药明康德下跌3.81%，中国生物 下跌3.35%，三生制药、药明生物等多股跌幅在2%上方。 恒生银行低开低走终结四连涨，截至收盘下跌1.63%。建设银行大跌3.06%，民生银行、重庆农村商业 银行、农业银行、交通银行、工商银行等近10只个股跌幅在2%上方。 低开低走后全天震荡下行，截至收盘恒生指数大跌2.08%。恒生医疗跌幅居前，大消费、互联网、银行 等紧随其后。 大消费低开低走大跳水，截至收盘下跌2.21%。周大福下跌6.74%，吉利汽车下跌4.23%，比亚迪股份、 农夫山泉、泡泡玛特、安踏体验、百威亚大等超10只个股跌幅在3%上方。 内容只是个人观点，仅供参考，不作为投资依据！欢迎关注交流，互相学习、共同探讨！ ...

Core Insights - The collaboration between CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and AstraZeneca has resulted in unexpected outcomes, particularly the large scale of the business development (BD) deal exceeding market expectations [1][2] - Despite the substantial financial terms of the agreement, including a $1.2 billion upfront payment and potential milestone payments totaling up to $18.5 billion, the market reacted negatively, with CSPC's stock price dropping significantly [2][3] Summary by Sections Business Development Deal - CSPC's agreement with AstraZeneca is one of the largest in the history of Chinese innovative pharmaceuticals, with a total potential deal value of $18.5 billion [2] - The deal includes a $1.2 billion upfront payment, which is the second-largest in overseas licensing transactions among Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2][3] - The potential milestone payments are subject to uncertainties related to research progress and market sales, making them less reliable [2] Market Reaction - Following the announcement, CSPC's stock price fell by 10.2%, with its A-share subsidiary also experiencing a decline of over 17% [2][3] - This negative market response contrasts sharply with previous instances where pre-announced BD deals led to significant stock price increases, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards BD announcements [3][6] Changing Market Dynamics - The previous effectiveness of BD announcements as a catalyst for stock price increases has diminished, as the pharmaceutical sector has transitioned from a "negative expectation" phase to a more normalized valuation [5][7] - The market has begun to anticipate BD news, leading to preemptive stock price adjustments that result in profit-taking once the announcements are made [6][7] Future Outlook - The long-term prospects for the pharmaceutical sector remain strong, driven by the inherent performance potential of innovative drug assets [9][10] - Continuous policy support and improving fundamentals for companies are expected to foster a favorable environment for growth, shifting focus back to performance and fundamentals rather than BD speculation [10]

Core Viewpoint - The strategic collaboration between Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group and AstraZeneca marks a significant milestone in the outbound business development (BD) of Chinese innovative drugs, with a potential total payment of up to $18.5 billion, setting a new record for BD transactions in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry [1][3]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical has signed a strategic R&D cooperation and licensing agreement with AstraZeneca, utilizing its proprietary sustained-release drug delivery technology and peptide drug AI discovery platform to develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs [1]. - The total potential payment of $18.5 billion includes an upfront payment of $1.2 billion, with the remaining $17.3 billion contingent on achieving various R&D and sales milestones over the coming years [3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Despite the significant deal, Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical's stock experienced a sharp decline, dropping nearly 13% intraday and closing down 10.2%, attributed to profit-taking after a strong pre-announcement stock performance [1][3]. - The overall market sentiment was also negative, with major indices in Hong Kong, including the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index, falling over 2%, impacting the performance of other leading Chinese biopharmaceutical companies [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - Analysts suggest that the core logic of domestic innovative drugs remains solid, indicating a favorable window for investment as the BD of Chinese companies accelerates and the price gap for innovative drugs between China and the U.S. narrows, presenting significant long-term growth potential [5]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (520880) has seen substantial net subscriptions, indicating ongoing investor interest despite recent market volatility [4].

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Stone Pharmaceutical Group and AstraZeneca is a significant strategic partnership with a potential total deal value of up to $18.5 billion, highlighting the importance of innovative drug development and technology platforms in the pharmaceutical industry [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Aspects - The initial payment of $1.2 billion is the second-largest upfront payment in recent collaborations, following a $1.25 billion payment from a partnership between Three Life Pharmaceuticals and Pfizer in 2025 [2]. - The deal includes potential milestone payments of up to $3.5 billion for research and up to $13.8 billion for sales, along with a sales commission based on net sales of authorized products [1]. Group 2: Technological and Developmental Focus - The collaboration is centered around Stone Pharmaceutical Group's proprietary sustained-release drug delivery technology platform and AI-driven peptide drug discovery platform, indicating AstraZeneca's interest in the underlying technological capabilities [2]. - The sustained-release technology allows for monthly or longer dosing intervals for peptide drugs, enhancing patient compliance for long-term treatments [2]. - Stone Pharmaceutical Group will collaborate with AstraZeneca on the discovery of innovative peptide molecules and the development of long-acting delivery products, including a weight management product and several other projects in various stages of development [2][3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Market Position - This is not the first collaboration between Stone Pharmaceutical Group and AstraZeneca; the total deal value from their three collaborations has exceeded $25 billion [3]. - AstraZeneca has shown a strong commitment to the Chinese market, ranking first among foreign pharmaceutical companies in sales and actively engaging in patent licensing transactions [3]. - Stone Pharmaceutical Group, established in 1994, is transitioning from generic to innovative drug development, facing challenges with its key products as core patents expire [3][4]. Group 4: R&D Investment and Industry Trends - Stone Pharmaceutical Group has steadily increased its R&D spending from 2 billion yuan in 2019 to 5.19 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting its focus on innovative drug development [4]. - The company has eight innovative technology platforms and aims to launch a billion-yuan peak product annually from these platforms [4]. - The trend in the industry shows a surge in business development transactions, with over 150 deals and a total value exceeding $130 billion in 2025, indicating a robust market for innovative drug collaborations [4].

Core Insights - The report provides an analysis of the hair medical industry in China, highlighting key players, market share, and competitive dynamics. Group 1: Industry Overview - The main listed companies in the hair medical industry include Yonghe Medical, Xianju Pharmaceutical, ST Meigu, Yisheng Pharmaceutical, Zhendong Pharmaceutical, International Medical, Kanghui Pharmaceutical, Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, Kang Enbei, and Furuida [1]. - The competitive landscape shows that companies with registered capital exceeding 1.5 billion yuan are in the leading position, while those with capital between 500 million to 1.5 billion yuan are in the first tier, and companies with less than 500 million yuan are in the second tier [1]. Group 2: Regional Distribution - Representative enterprises in the hair medical industry are mainly distributed across provinces such as Shaanxi, Zhejiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Shandong, and Jiangsu, with a notable concentration in Shaanxi and Zhejiang [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - As of November 21, 2025, leading hair transplant chains like Yonghe Hair Transplant, Dama Micro-needle (Kefa Source), and Bilian Sheng have over 30 stores each [7]. - The market for Minoxidil, a common hair growth medication, is highly concentrated, with the top three brands holding over 97% market share in online pharmacies as of 2024 [10][14]. Group 4: Competitive Analysis - The hair transplant sector has many institutions with low concentration, leading to intense competition, while the market for Minoxidil is dominated by a few key players [12][16]. - The threat of new entrants is moderate due to certain industry barriers, while substitutes like wigs and hair tattoos pose a threat due to their lower cost and quicker application [16].