证券研究报告 "核心区+好产品"率先止跌回稳，重申 关注中线布局 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年6月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：核心区及好房子率先止跌回稳逐步被验证及市场接受。本周受端午假期影响，重点50城新房备案口径成交环比降33.4%，尽 管短期成交存在波折，但随着核心城市核心区供需格局改善，叠加过去限价带来的优质住房相对稀缺，"核心区+好产品"正率先止跌 回稳。随着半年末房企加大营销力度及优质房源供应，预计短期成交环比有望恢复上行，但同比由于上年高基数或小幅下滑。 短期结构性复苏有望延续，中期为产品力与拿地能力的竞争。当前市场主要担忧在于：1）核心区供给有限、年内诞生多个"地王"， 房企能否获取充足货量及保障利润率；2）随着好房子供应增加，是否会步入新的价格战，进而影响去化或利润率。我们认为短期无需 过度担忧：1）主要房企销售规模及利润较高点已明显回落，边际增量优质项目带来业绩弹性较大；2）当前高价地主要集中核心城市 核心区，供应仍相对有限，且得益于限价放开与得房率提升，预计去化率有望维持高位。中期将是产品力、拿地能力的 ...

证券研究报告 "核心区+好产品"率先止跌回稳，重申 关注中线布局 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2025年6月9日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 地产行业周报 核心摘要 2 周度观点：核心区及好房子率先止跌回稳逐步被验证及市场接受。本周受端午假期影响，重点50城新房备案口径成交环比降33.4%，尽 管短期成交存在波折，但随着核心城市核心区供需格局改善，叠加过去限价带来的优质住房相对稀缺，"核心区+好产品"正率先止跌 回稳。随着半年末房企加大营销力度及优质房源供应，预计短期成交环比有望恢复上行，但同比由于上年高基数或小幅下滑。 短期结构性复苏有望延续，中期为产品力与拿地能力的竞争。当前市场主要担忧在于：1）核心区供给有限、年内诞生多个"地王"， 房企能否获取充足货量及保障利润率；2）随着好房子供应增加，是否会步入新的价格战，进而影响去化或利润率。我们认为短期无需 过度担忧：1）主要房企销售规模及利润较高点已明显回落，边际增量优质项目带来业绩弹性较大；2）当前高价地主要集中核心城市 核心区，供应仍相对有限，且得益于限价放开与得房率提升，预计去化率有望维持高位。中期将是产品力、拿地能力的 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The central government is expanding support for urban renewal actions, with a focus on enhancing urban infrastructure and improving living conditions. This includes a planned investment of 2.9 trillion yuan in over 60,000 urban renewal projects in 2024 [2][10][12]. - The report indicates that the real estate market is approaching a turning point, with expectations of incremental policy support to stabilize the industry. There is a growing consensus on the market bottom, suggesting a smoother logic for short-term policy speculation and long-term valuation recovery [14]. Summary by Sections 1. Urban Renewal Support - In June 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced support for 20 cities in urban renewal actions, with a focus on infrastructure improvement and urban quality enhancement [9][10]. - The central government plans to provide fixed subsidies for cities undertaking urban renewal, with varying amounts based on regional classifications [10][11]. 2. Market Overview - The new housing market saw a transaction area of 211 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 19.53% in May 2025. The inventory reached 105.11 million square meters, with faster absorption in first and second-tier cities compared to third-tier cities [3][18]. - The second-hand housing market recorded a transaction area of 143 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 19.93% [26]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing investments in non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading real estate companies with product advantages and regional firms with improving market shares [14]. - Specific companies to watch include: Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Development, and Beike [14][15].

行业报告 | 行业研究周报 房地产 证券研究报告 城更支持再扩围，关注中央预算内投资增量 行业追踪（2025.5.31-2025.6.6） 2025 年 6 月 4 日，财政部、住房城乡建设部 2025 年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动评选 宣布，拟支持的 20 个城市为（按行政区划排序）：北京、天津、唐山、包头、大连、哈尔滨、 苏州、温州、芜湖、厦门、济南、郑州、宜昌、长沙、广州、海口、宜宾、兰州、西宁、乌鲁 木齐。自 2024 年起，中央财政支持部分城市实施城市更新行动。2024 年 5 月，财政部《关 于开展城市更新示范工作的通知》，文件提出自 2024 年起，中央财政创新方式方法，支持部 分城市开展城市更新示范工作。2024 年首批拟支持的 15 个城市为（按行政区划排序）：石家 庄、太原、沈阳、上海、南京、杭州、合肥、福州、南昌、青岛、武汉、东莞、重庆、成都、 西安。 2025 年，中央财政继续支持实施城市更新行动，探索建立可持续的城市更新机制，推动补齐 城市基础设施的短板弱项，加强消费型基础设施建设，促进城市基础设施建设由"有没有"向 "好不好"转变。2025 年 4 月，财政部、住房城乡建设部发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry based on fundamental improvements and valuation levels [4]. Core Insights - Recent market focus has shifted towards new real estate development models, particularly regarding current housing sales and loan management policies, which are expected to be implemented gradually rather than through a one-size-fits-all approach [2][3]. - The current valuation levels of major real estate companies are approaching the pre-rebound levels seen in April and September of the previous year, suggesting that the sector may be entering an investment zone [6][12]. - The adjusted price-to-book (PB) ratio for the sector is approximately 1.0, while the average adjusted PB for the top five companies in terms of sales is around 0.7, further supporting the notion that the sector's investment attributes are becoming more pronounced [8][12]. Summary by Sections Market Trends - The focus on current housing sales and loan management policies has led to a cautious sentiment among investors, which is reflected in stock prices [2]. - The gradual implementation of policies is expected to enhance the competitive landscape for high-quality companies within the industry, thereby increasing entry barriers [3]. Valuation Analysis - The current PB levels for major real estate firms are near the lower bounds of the past five years, indicating a potential for upward valuation adjustments [6][9]. - The report emphasizes that investments should be made when valuations are within a reasonable range, highlighting the increasing value of the real estate sector as it approaches these levels [12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with a strong track record of cash flow generation and stable performance, such as China Overseas Development and Poly Development, as well as those with high dividend yields and stable earnings like China Resources Land [13]. - The potential for valuation recovery exists for companies like Gemdale and Longfor Group, especially as market volatility decreases and interest rates stabilize [13].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 08 年 月 日 房地产开发 2025W23：5 月核心城市二手房成交规模有所回落 5 月上海、北京、深圳二手房成交规模有所回落。2025 年 5 月上海、北 京、深圳二手房成交套数分别为 21400 套、14277 套、4830 套，环比分 别-8.6%、-8.3%、-18.1%，相较于 3 月分别-27.1%、-25.8%、-22.5%。 核心城市二手房成交相较此前有一定降温，这其中有一定季节性因素，但 整体仍好于新房市场。我们预计，在当前现有地产政策框架下，二手房成 交或持续强于新房；新房受供货结构影响，总量弹性不大，或维持近年同 期低位量能，结构性的城市和区域表现尚可。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为 0.9%，落后沪深 300 指 数 0.02 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 21 名。 新房：本周30个城市新房成交面积为157.9万平方米，环比下降35.7%， 同比下降 9.6%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 40.9 万方，环比- 40.3%，同比-7.4%；样本二线城市为 79.8 万方，环比-28 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent acquisition of the S030501 unit N06-22 land parcel in Xuhui Longhua by a relatively new company, Chenjia Development, for 4.382 billion yuan, with a premium rate of 40%, raises questions about the company's rapid success in a competitive market dominated by established players [1][2]. Group 1: Company Background - Chenjia Development, established in 2020, has quickly made a name for itself in the Shanghai real estate market, securing multiple high-profile land parcels within a short span [2][3]. - The company’s management team includes former executives from China Overseas Land & Investment, indicating a strategic advantage through experienced leadership [5][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - The Xuhui Longhua land parcel is strategically located in the city center, surrounded by commercial and educational facilities, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2]. - Chenjia Development's project plan for the Xuhui Longhua site includes a mix of residential types, which is expected to enhance profitability, reflecting a strategic approach similar to that of its predecessor, China Overseas [6]. Group 3: Financial Backing - The controlling shareholder of Chenjia Development is Liu Yiqian, the owner of Guohua Life Insurance, which has significant investments in the real estate sector, providing a financial cushion for the company [7][8]. - Guohua Life has a history of investing in various real estate projects, indicating a robust financial backing for Chenjia Development's future endeavors [9]. Group 4: Industry Context - The competitive landscape in Shanghai's real estate market is intense, with established players like China Overseas and China Merchants facing challenges from newer entrants like Chenjia Development [1][2]. - The recent financial struggles of Guohua Life, including significant losses reported in 2023 and 2024, could potentially impact Chenjia Development's operations and growth strategy in the real estate sector [10][11].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the total transaction volume of both new and second-hand housing has stabilized, but the price cycle needs to be activated to stimulate the replacement chain [3][4] - Since 2021, the second-hand housing market has shown significant improvement, outperforming the new housing market, with a notable increase in second-hand housing penetration rate from 34% in October 2021 to 68% in April 2025, representing a growth of 96% [11][21] - The report highlights that the key issue is not the transaction volume but rather the price, as the prices of second-hand homes continue to decline, indicating a need for policy support to stimulate housing consumption [3][4] Group 2 - The medium to long-term outlook suggests that both supply and demand sides require time for recovery, with the residents' balance sheet being crucial. The report estimates that since 2021, the average price of second-hand homes has dropped by over 31%, leading to a significant increase in the asset-liability ratio of residents from 10.7% in 2021 to 13.2% in 2024 [3][4] - The report anticipates that the effective inventory level in China will be low, with an estimated 1.4 billion square meters by the end of 2024, corresponding to a de-stocking cycle of less than 1.8 years, indicating a potential for recovery in core cities [3][4] - The report predicts that by 2025, new housing sales area will decrease by 4.5%, sales revenue by 6.5%, and housing prices by 2.0%, while second-hand housing sales area will increase by 6.3% and sales revenue by 3.0% [3][4] Group 3 - The policy analysis section indicates that the main theme will remain "stabilizing and stopping the decline," with a focus on repairing residents' balance sheets. Expected policy measures include further interest rate cuts on mortgages and optimization of land acquisition policies [3][4] - The report suggests that a new development model in real estate is gradually taking shape, emphasizing the importance of "good housing" and the potential for a shift from a financial model to a manufacturing model in the industry [3][4] - The report identifies opportunities in the "good housing" sector, highlighting that companies capable of producing quality housing products will have a sustainable future, with examples of companies like Jianfa International and Binjiang Group being well-positioned [3][4] Group 4 - The investment analysis maintains a "positive" rating, indicating that while the total transaction volume of new and second-hand homes has stabilized, the price cycle has not yet entered a positive loop, suggesting that further policy support is necessary [3][4] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, and China Resources Land, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries like Beike-W and property management firms such as China Resources Vientiane [3][4] - The report emphasizes that the real estate industry is expected to transition from a financial model to a manufacturing model, with a focus on improving gross margins and asset turnover rather than relying on leverage [3][4]

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates a weakening in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with a notable increase in the sales decline for the top 100 real estate companies in May [1][7] - New home transaction area shows a narrowing month-on-month increase and a year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transaction area has shifted from positive to negative month-on-month and shows an expanding year-on-year decline [1][7] - The inventory of new homes and the de-stocking cycle have both increased month-on-month, while showing a year-on-year decrease [1][7] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of May 24 to May 30, new home transaction area increased by 6.4% month-on-month but decreased by 11.6% year-on-year, with a total of 276.7 million square meters transacted across 40 cities [19][24] - The transaction area for second-hand homes decreased by 10.9% month-on-month and 11.3% year-on-year, totaling 179.2 million square meters across 18 cities [47][54] - New home inventory in 12 cities reached 8,789 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 16.6% [41][48] 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transacted across 100 cities was 1,003.1 million square meters, down 34.7% month-on-month and 27.0% year-on-year, while the total land price increased by 53.6% month-on-month to 25.64 billion [61][66] - The average land price per square meter was 2,556.1 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 135.1% and a year-on-year increase of 94.5% [61][66] 3. Policy Overview - Local policies have been introduced to stimulate housing consumption, including measures such as reducing down payment ratios and tax exemptions for housing transactions [3][98][99] - Specific initiatives include the implementation of a "trade-in" model for housing and the expansion of housing provident fund usage [3][99] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms with significant breakthroughs, companies with strategic changes, and real estate brokerage firms benefiting from the recovery in the second-hand market [8]