证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：赵琳 邮箱：zhaolin@hx168.com.cn SAC NO：S1120520040003 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 [Table_Title] 2 月 152 款游戏版号落地，Anthropic 指控国 产模型"蒸馏" [Table_Title2] 传媒行业周报系列 2026 年第 8 周 [Table_Summary] ►市场行情回顾 2026 年第8周（实际交易日为 2026.2.23-2026.2.27）上证 指数上涨 1.98%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.08%，创业板指数上 涨 1.05%。恒生指数上涨 0.82%，恒生互联网指数下跌 2.49%，行业落后恒生指数 3.31pct。SW 传媒指数下跌 5.1%，跑输创业板指数 6.15pct，在申万一级 31 个行业涨 跌幅排名中位列第 31 位。子行业中影视、游戏和广告营销 位 列 前 三位，分别为上涨 4.26%、上涨 0.37%和下跌 0.17%。 ►核心观点&投资建议 2 月 152 款游戏版号落地， ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI industry and gaming sectors, indicating that recent market corrections may present better investment opportunities [12] - E-commerce sector shows mixed results, with Alibaba leading in AI advancements but facing pessimistic revenue growth expectations, leading to stock price fluctuations [16] - Social entertainment media, particularly Tencent and Bilibili, are expected to maintain strong growth, with Bilibili's advertising growth likely to outperform the overall internet advertising market [16] Group 2: E-commerce Insights - Alibaba's AI developments are significant, with the launch of the Qwen 3.5-Plus model, which has shown competitive performance at a lower cost, enhancing its market position [13] - Meituan is expected to face challenges due to intense competition in the food delivery sector, impacting profitability in the short term [16] Group 3: Gaming Sector Insights - The gaming sector is anticipated to maintain a favorable outlook, with new product launches expected to drive growth in 2026 [14] - Companies like Century Huatong and Perfect World are highlighted for their strong product pipelines and potential for revenue growth [18] Group 4: AI Developments - The report notes a growing concern about AI's impact on traditional industries, with a shift in market focus towards model technology pricing and capabilities [20] - The upcoming second quarter of 2026 is expected to see a new wave of model iterations, with domestic models catching up rapidly [20] Group 5: Advertising and Marketing - The advertising sector is seeing increased activity, with companies like Focus Media ramping up ad placements, particularly in consumer goods ahead of major events like the World Cup [18] - AI marketing is gaining traction, with companies like Titanium Technology preparing for an IPO, indicating strong growth potential in this area [19] Group 6: Media and Entertainment - The long video sector is stabilizing, with companies exploring new business avenues, while short video platforms like Kuaishou are benefiting from technological advancements [17] - The report emphasizes the importance of content production capabilities and project pipelines for companies in the film and television industry [19]

计算机 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 3 月 1 日 AI 应用持续落地 计算机行业事件点评 国内互联网大厂于春节期间投入超 45 亿元推广 AI 应用，标志着 AI 竞争已进入应用 生态争夺与用户习惯培养阶段。国内大模型在性能与市场应用端也不断加速追赶。尽 管市场对 AI 取代人类产生阶段性担忧，但行业转向理性务实，更关注商业化落地。 我们认为，未来行业有望向"通用大模型"与"垂直行业应用"双线发展。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 建议关注大模型及细分行业 AI Agent 领域企业，包括智谱、MINIMAX-WP、科 大讯飞、拓尔思、汉得信息、中控技术、宝信软件、索辰科技、万兴科技、金山 办公、合合信息、用友网络、道通科技、石基信息、税友股份、安恒信息等。 评级面临的主要风险 产业推进不及预期，技术研发进展不及预期，国际合作难以推进。 证券分析师：杨思睿 (8610)66229321 sirui.yang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300518090001 证券分析师：郑静文 jingwen.zheng@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Recommended" indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [2][7]. Core Insights - The gaming industry is expected to benefit significantly from the AI wave, with leading companies likely to thrive amidst concerns that AI may disrupt the gaming sector [5]. - The report suggests that while AI may lower the barriers to game development, creating large-scale games will still require substantial resources, making it unlikely for small teams to compete with established gaming giants [5]. - Historical trends show that leading gaming companies have consistently benefited from technological advancements, and they are well-positioned to adapt to new changes in the industry [5]. Industry Overview - The gaming sector consists of 160 companies with a total market capitalization of 2,270.9 billion and a circulating market value of 2,090.9 billion [2]. - The absolute performance of the industry over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is -0.9%, 22.7%, and 27.0% respectively, while the relative performance is 1.2%, 11.1%, and 7.7% [4]. Company Recommendations - The report continues to favor leading gaming companies such as Tencent, NetEase, Century Huatong, Giant Network, and others, indicating a strong belief in their potential to leverage AI advancements [5].

Key Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the AI sector during the Spring Festival, with major players like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent achieving significant user engagement and interaction through their AI applications [1][8] - The report discusses the advancements in autonomous driving, including legislative support in the US and significant developments from companies like Tesla and Waymo, indicating a growing market for self-driving technology [2][9] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the Trump administration is expected to impact trade dynamics significantly, affecting various sectors [3][10] Recent Key Events - ByteDance's AI model generated over 50 million new year avatars and achieved 19 billion interactions during the Spring Festival, showcasing its strong user engagement [1][8] - Alibaba's "Qianwen" app facilitated nearly 200 million orders during the holiday, with a notable user base of older adults successfully utilizing the service [1][8] - Tencent's user engagement metrics reached new highs, with over 50 million daily active users during the Spring Festival, reflecting the effectiveness of its promotional activities [1][8] Market Situation - The Hang Seng Index fell from 27,387 points at the end of January to 26,381 points by February 26, marking a decline of 3.7% [11] - The Hang Seng Technology Index experienced a more significant drop of 10.6% during the same period [11] - Net inflows from southbound trading reached 75.6 billion HKD in February, indicating a positive trend in capital movement [12] Current Investment Recommendations - Focus on growth-oriented real estate and energy companies such as Beike-W, China Qinfa, and Power Development, which are expected to perform well in the current market [21] - Consider companies benefiting from the adjustment of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, like Leshushi, which is positioned for growth in the African hygiene products market [21] - Internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent are recommended due to their advancements in AI and strong market positions [21] Company-Specific Insights - Beike-W (2423.HK) is positioned as a leader in the real estate brokerage sector, with expected net profits of 37.1 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth trajectory despite market challenges [22][24] - China Qinfa (0866.HK) is transitioning away from coal operations in Shanxi and focusing on its growing Indonesian coal business, with projected profits of 6.1 billion CNY by 2026 [25][26] - Leshushi (2698.HK) is a leading player in the African hygiene products market, with a projected net profit growth of 18.5% in 2025, driven by increasing market penetration [35][36] - Alibaba (9988.HK) is enhancing its AI capabilities with the launch of the Qwen3.5 model, which is expected to drive significant revenue growth across its platforms [39][40] - Tencent (0700.HK) is experiencing strong growth in its gaming and advertising segments, with a projected revenue increase to 7,530 billion CNY by 2025 [44][46]

Group 1 - The report highlights a peak in lock-up expirations in March 2026, with a total of HKD 87.2 billion in lock-up shares set to be released, primarily affecting sectors such as non-ferrous metals, tea beverages, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [4][33] - The upcoming earnings disclosure deadline for Hong Kong companies, particularly those with fiscal years aligned with the calendar year, is expected to exert downward pressure on stock performance, with many companies required to announce preliminary results by March 31 [4][39] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of military conflicts involving Iran, are noted as a secondary factor impacting market sentiment, although the overall effect on Hong Kong stocks may be limited due to a prevailing bullish trend in global risk assets [4][45] Group 2 - The report suggests that the period from mid to late March 2026 may present an opportunity for negative sentiment to dissipate, as the peak of the aforementioned pressures passes [4][50] - The performance of the Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to improve as major companies within the index are likely to report earnings by mid to late March, potentially alleviating market concerns [5][39] - The potential visit of former President Trump to China at the end of March to early April could also positively influence market sentiment [5][52] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that the Hong Kong market does not exhibit a significant seasonal effect post-Chinese New Year, with the Hang Seng Index showing only a 46.7% probability of rising during this period over the past 15 years [7][13] - The report emphasizes that the recent appreciation of the Renminbi is not driven by domestic economic fundamentals, which may lead to a divergence between currency strength and Hong Kong stock performance [20][21] - The report notes that the core variable influencing foreign investment in Hong Kong stocks is the expectation of China's economic fundamentals rather than short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate [21][22]

本周观点 风险提示 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店，整体咖啡行业价格竞争趋缓；阿 拉比卡咖啡期货价格持续下跌，后续有望带来成本改善。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台 AI 流量大战，奶茶成为 引流品，数据依旧具备韧性；但有关"糖税"征收相关研究讨论引发市场担忧。 电商：持续承压。受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商基本面表现平淡。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放。 网易云音乐 2025 年收入略微不及预期，关注 2026 年音乐订阅业务有望量价齐升。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：地缘冲突风险加剧，币价持续承压。香港 2026-2027 年度财政预算案确认香港年内将 提交法案，建立虚拟资产交易商及托管服务提供者的发牌制度，监管范围将进一步扩展至场外交易等数字资产买 卖业务。 汽车服务：IAM中，多家主机系汽服连锁蛰伏后市场，车后连锁品牌持续加码开店 ...

推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：朱珠 S1050521110001 zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 传媒(申万) | -5.0 | 10.0 | 35.2 | | 沪深 300 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 21.1 | 市场表现 2026 年 02 月 28 日 传媒回调行情仍在 智能新纪元撬动注意力经济 行业相对表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 (%) 传媒 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《传媒行业周报：春晚节点重燃 AI 传媒有望承接 AI 应用新场景》 2026-02-23 2 、 《 传 媒 行 业 点 评 报 告 ： Seedance2.0 推动 AIGC 进入卡尔达 肖夫指数》2026-02-10 3、《传媒行业周报：从春节档到 AI 春晚迎 2026 年新篇章关注 AIGC》 2026-02-08 ▌本周观点更新 2026 年 2 月底传媒板块开年后略回调，我们认为当下传媒板 块行情仍在，AIGC 新叙事仍可期。企业端，AIGC 公 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [7] Core Insights - The gaming market performed steadily during the Spring Festival, with several long-term DAU games showing outstanding performance. Tencent's multiple games maintained top positions, with "Peace Elite" achieving a new user high during the Spring Festival version [2][4] - The gaming market's actual sales revenue in January was 32.5 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.0% and a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The PC gaming market exceeded 8.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.5% [6][10] - The upcoming release of new games is expected to catalyze continued growth in the industry, with several titles scheduled for launch in the coming months [10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The gaming market showed stable performance during the Spring Festival, with long-term DAU games demonstrating significant advantages. Tencent's games, including "Peace Elite," "Delta Action," and "Valorant Mobile," consistently ranked in the top 10 bestsellers [10] - The overseas market for self-developed games saw a year-on-year revenue increase of 24% in January, driven by stable performance of mature products and successful launches of new titles [10] Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a series of new game launches, with titles like "Douluo Dalu: Zhusha Legend" and "EVE" scheduled for release in the coming months. The gaming sector's product cycle and performance certainty remain strong, indicating potential investment opportunities [10]

1858 年的夏天，一根铜芯电缆横穿大西洋海底，把伦敦和纽约连在了一起。 这件事的意义从来不在于传输速度，而在于权力结构，谁铺设了海底电缆，谁就能在信息流动中抽水。大英帝国靠着这张全球电报网，把殖民地的情报、 棉花的价格、战争的消息都攥在手里。 帝国的强大不仅是有舰队，还有那根电缆。 一百六十多年后，这个逻辑正在以一种意想不到的方式重演。 AI 模型 大迁徙 2026 年 2 月 24 日，OpenRouter 发布了一份周度数据：平台前十模型的总 Token 消耗约 8.7 万亿，中国模型独占 5.3 万亿，占比 61%。MiniMax M2.5 以 2.45 万亿 Token 空降榜首，Kimi K2.5、智谱 GLM-5 紧随其后，前三名清一色来自中国。 | | & LLM Leaderboard | | | | | | This Week <> | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Compare the most popular models on OpenRouter (1) | | | | | | | 1 | ® | ...