以下文章来源于时代财经APP ，作者高秋榕 时代财经APP . 聚焦于企业财经新闻，互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：44120230006 导语："油脉"霍尔木兹海峡停摆，油运市场巨震。 3月2日，国际油价开盘大涨，布伦特原油期货开盘飙升13%至82美元/桶，WTI原油期货涨超10%报75美元/桶，不过随后涨幅均收窄至超5%。 这轮油价剧烈波动的直接导火索，源于一场骤然升级的地缘冲突。 消息面上，据新华社报道，美国和以色列2月28日联合对伊朗发起"先发制人"军事打击，伊朗对以色列及中东地区多处目标予以还击。而据央视新 闻报道，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队2月28日晚宣布，禁止任何船只通过霍尔木兹海峡 当地时间3月1日，一艘试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮被击中，并开始沉没。 霍尔木兹海峡非普通水道，它连接波斯湾和印度洋，北面是伊朗，南面是阿拉伯联合酋长国和阿曼。它长约100英里（161公里），最窄处约33公 里。更关键的是，全球原油消费量的20%需经过该海峡输送，霍尔木兹海峡停摆，对全球原油、油运市场的冲击不言而喻。 Veson Nautical大中华区总经理王翔曾对时代财经指出，霍尔木兹海峡是VLCC运输的核心枢纽，一旦发生 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The current demand in the e-commerce express delivery industry is resilient, and the top-down "anti-involution" is driving up express prices, releasing profit elasticity for companies, indicating a favorable long-term competitive opportunity for e-commerce express delivery [17] - The oil transportation market may see a significant price increase due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, which could limit Iranian oil exports [5] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, enhancing the elasticity of VLCC freight rates [17] Industry Dynamics Tracking Shipping and Ports - The SCFI comprehensive freight index increased by 6.5% week-on-week to 1333 points, with notable increases in shipping rates to Europe, the Mediterranean, and the US [5] - The BDTI index for crude oil shipping rose by 6.47% to 1870 points, with VLCC TCE increasing by 30.2% [6] - The BCTI index for refined oil shipping increased by 3.3% to 838 points, with significant rises in rates for LR1 and MR vessels [6] - The BDI index for bulk carriers rose by 2.7% to 2120 points, indicating a positive trend in bulk shipping rates [6] - New ship prices have generally decreased, with the new ship price index down by 0.57 points to 182.15 points [6] Express Logistics - The Zhejiang Postal Administration has outlined nine key tasks for 2026, focusing on maintaining fair competition and enhancing service quality in the express delivery sector [9] - During the Spring Festival, the express delivery volume in Yiwu reached a historical high of 56.3 million packages in a single day, with a year-on-year growth of 10% in package volume [10] - Shentong Express emphasized the role of AI in operations, aiming for a collaborative strategy focused on experience, market share, and profit [11] Aviation and Airports - During the 2026 Spring Festival holiday, civil aviation transported 22.05 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [13] - The number of inbound foreign tourists increased by 49.5% in 2025, indicating a recovery in international travel [14] Road and Rail - National logistics operations were orderly from February 16 to February 22, with rail freight down by 10.72% and highway freight traffic down by 70.59% [16] Sub-industry Data Tracking Express Logistics - In December 2025, the national express service volume reached 18.21 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [26] - In January 2026, YTO Express achieved a business volume of 2.943 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 29.75% [33] Shipping - The Clarksons comprehensive freight rate was $37,591 per day, a week-on-week increase of 10.37% [49] - The BDI index for bulk shipping rose by 2.70% [49] Aviation - In January 2026, civil aviation completed a passenger transport volume of approximately 63 million, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [59] Ports - From February 16 to February 22, 2026, China's port cargo throughput was 187.61 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 21.75% [80]

板块市场回顾 上周（2026/2/21-2026/2/27）交运指数上涨 3.3%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.1%，跑赢大盘 2.2%，排名 14/29。交运子板 块中航运板块涨幅最大(+11.9%)，机场板块跌幅最大(-1.8%)。 行业观点 快递：部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（2 月 16 日-2 月 22 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 8.06 亿件，同比- 77.8%,环比-64.7%；累计投递量约 6.3 亿件，同比-83.7%,环比-81.1%。在监管底线较明确、反内卷思路延续的背景 下，行业价格大幅下探概率不高，同时考虑去年同期基数偏低，当前价格同比改善仍有望对利润端形成支撑，看好龙 头企业份额持续提升，关注中通快递，极兔海外市场保持较高成长持续看好。 物流：化工品价格看涨，看好化工物流。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 4041 点，同比-8.1%，环比-持平。本 周对二甲苯（PX）开工率为 93.25%，环比持平，同比+1.9pct；甲醇开工率为 87.4%，环比+0.1pct，同比+11.9pct； 乙二醇开工率为 66.2%，环比+0.9%，同比+6.3pct。原油价格上涨化 ...

板块市场回顾 上周（2026/2/21-2026/2/27）交运指数上涨 3.3%，沪深 300 指数上涨 1.1%，跑赢大盘 2.2%，排名 14/29。交运子板 块中航运板块涨幅最大(+11.9%)，机场板块跌幅最大(-1.8%)。 行业观点 快递：部分快递公司受益反内卷涨价影响。上周（2 月 16 日-2 月 22 日）邮政快递累计揽收量约 8.06 亿件，同比- 77.8%,环比-64.7%；累计投递量约 6.3 亿件，同比-83.7%,环比-81.1%。在监管底线较明确、反内卷思路延续的背景 下，行业价格大幅下探概率不高，同时考虑去年同期基数偏低，当前价格同比改善仍有望对利润端形成支撑，看好龙 头企业份额持续提升，关注中通快递，极兔海外市场保持较高成长持续看好。 物流：化工品价格看涨，看好化工物流。本周中国化工产品价格指数(CCPI)为 4041 点，同比-8.1%，环比-持平。本 周对二甲苯（PX）开工率为 93.25%，环比持平，同比+1.9pct；甲醇开工率为 87.4%，环比+0.1pct，同比+11.9pct； 乙二醇开工率为 66.2%，环比+0.9%，同比+6.3pct。原油价格上涨化 ...

2026 年 03 月 01 日 相关研究 券研究报 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨签 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 伊朗高势油运行情空中加油， 告船联动关注 ST 松发、招商锌 申万宏源交运一周天地汇(2026 ...

东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 | 本期编辑 | | | --- | --- | | 分析师：刘嘉玮 | | | 010-66554043 | liujw_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | | 执业证书编号： | S1480519050001 | 东兴证券研究所金股推荐 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | | --- | --- | | 002392.SZ | 北京利尔 | | 002991.SZ | 甘源食品 | | 300619.SZ | 金银河 | | 300627.SZ | 华测导航 | | 300666.SZ | 江丰电子 | | 300810.SZ | 中科海讯 | | 603209.SH | 兴通股份 | | 603239.SH | 浙江仙通 | | 688095.SH | 福昕软件 | | 688627.SH | 精智达 | 数据来源：《二月金股汇》 2026 年 02 月 02 日，东兴证券研究所 东 兴 晨 报 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 敬请参阅报告结尾处的免责声明 东方财智 兴盛之源 2026 年 2 月 27 日星期五 1. 中国人民银行：发布关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of various sectors and companies, indicating potential investment opportunities in the market. [2][5] Economic News - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 320.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan from the market. [3] - The overnight SHIBOR rate reported at 1.3680%, down by 1 basis point, while the 7-day SHIBOR rate decreased by 4 basis points to 1.4570%. [3] - The Supreme People's Court reported over 27,000 cases related to cross-border fraud, with significant sentences handed down to key criminal groups. [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology discussed the feasibility of new frequency bands for IMT and future 6G technology at a recent international meeting. [3] - Heilongjiang Province's government report emphasized the reform of state-owned enterprises and support for private sector development. [3] - The establishment of a national quality inspection center for rare earth permanent magnet motors in Liaoning Province aims to enhance quality assurance in high-end manufacturing. [4] Company News - Wens Foodstuff Group announced a share buyback plan of 800 million to 1.2 billion yuan at a maximum price of 24.00 yuan per share. [5] - Jiangxi Tungsten Holdings is planning to issue A-shares to specific investors to enhance its core competitiveness and fund acquisitions totaling up to 1.882 billion yuan. [5] - Huylon New Materials is undergoing a significant change that may affect its control, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock. [5] - Fangzheng Valve reported a revenue of 733 million yuan for 2025, a decrease of 2.98%, with net profit down by 6.34%. [5] - Nanya New Materials achieved a revenue of 5.228 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.52%, with net profit rising by 378.65% due to market demand recovery. [5] Transportation Industry Insights - In January 2026, domestic airline capacity decreased by approximately 4.3% year-on-year, but increased by 5.8% compared to December 2025, as airlines prepared for the Spring Festival. [7] - The overall passenger load factor for airlines improved by about 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, although it decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to December. [7] - During the Spring Festival holiday, national civil aviation transported 22.05 million passengers, with a flight completion rate of 95.8%, indicating growth compared to the previous year. [8] - International flight capacity increased by 2.6% year-on-year in January, with a slight improvement in load factors, although some airlines faced challenges due to changes in the Japanese route. [9] - Baiyun Airport reported a significant increase in passenger throughput, while Shanghai Airport experienced a decline, attributed to shifts in travel demand. [10] - The report suggests focusing on large airlines for their earnings elasticity, as the industry moves towards a more balanced supply-demand dynamic. [11]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strategic initiatives of the company to expand its product lines in the refractory materials sector and emerging technologies, particularly through a planned capital increase of up to 1.034 billion RMB for new projects and overseas expansion [6][11]. Company Developments - Changxin Bochuang signed a letter of intent to acquire 93.81% of Shanghai Honghui Light Communication Technology Co., Ltd. for approximately 375 million RMB, aiming to enhance its product line in the optical communication field [5]. - Tongwei Co., Ltd. is planning to acquire 100% of Qinghai Lihua Qingneng Co., Ltd. through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with the transaction expected to not alter the control of the company [5]. - Yutong Optical received acceptance from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for its application to issue shares to specific investors, pending further approvals [5]. - Maoyan Entertainment forecasts a revenue of up to 4.7 billion RMB for the fiscal year 2025, representing a growth of approximately 15.1% compared to 2024 [5]. - Conch Cement's major shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 700 million and 1.4 billion RMB within six months [5]. Industry Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in China's industrial economy, with a 6.9% year-on-year increase in value added for SMEs in 2025, outperforming the overall industrial growth rate by 1.0 percentage points [2]. - The construction of a new production line for zirconia and zircon-based materials is expected to yield a post-tax internal rate of return of 29.35% and a payback period of 4.89 years, indicating strong potential for profitability [7][8]. - The establishment of a production base in Vietnam is part of the company's strategy to enhance its overseas operations, targeting the growing demand in Southeast Asia, particularly in Vietnam [9].

Core Insights - The report highlights the structural expansion of the rubidium and cesium market driven by the increasing penetration of perovskite solar cells and the development of space photovoltaics [7][12][13] Industry Overview - Perovskite solar cells (PSCs) are identified as a new type of solar cell with advantages such as low cost, high efficiency, lightweight, and flexibility compared to traditional silicon cells [7] - The report predicts that the penetration rate of perovskite solar cells in the photovoltaic market will rise significantly, from 1.3% in 2025 to 30% by 2030, driven by their cost-effectiveness and efficiency [9][12] Market Dynamics - The demand for rubidium and cesium is expected to grow substantially, with a projected CAGR of 115% from 2025 to 2030, as the perovskite battery market expands [12][16] - The report estimates that global demand for rubidium will increase from 37 tons in 2025 to 1696 tons by 2030, correlating with the anticipated growth in perovskite solar cell production [12][16] Technological Advancements - The stability of perovskite solar cells is a key challenge, but the addition of rubidium and cesium is expected to enhance their performance and longevity [8] - Flexible perovskite solar cells are anticipated to find applications in various fields, including building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV), wearable devices, and automotive power generation [10][11] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the period from 2026 to 2027 will be crucial for the industrialization and validation of perovskite solar cells, with significant advancements expected in their application in space photovoltaics [13][14] - The integration of perovskite solar cells in space applications is projected to drive demand for rubidium significantly, with estimates indicating a potential need for 220 tons by 2030 due to space solar power initiatives [15][16]

Core Insights - The report highlights the expected recovery in the semiconductor industry, with specific companies poised to benefit from this trend, particularly in the IC substrate market driven by AI demand [7][9][10]. Company Summaries - **兴森科技 (Xingsen Technology)**: The company is projected to achieve a net profit of between 132 million to 140 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses. This improvement is attributed to stable revenue growth and the recovery of its main business segments [8]. - **江丰电子 (Jiangfeng Electronics)**: The company is noted for its strategic positioning in both BT and ABF substrates, which are critical for AI applications. The demand for IC substrates is expected to surge, with the global market projected to grow from 16.69 billion USD in 2025 to 18.44 billion USD in 2026, and further to 45.34 billion USD by 2035, indicating a robust CAGR of 10.51% from 2026 to 2035 [10][11]. Industry Insights - The IC substrate market is experiencing a significant demand increase due to the rise of AI applications, with supply constraints leading to price increases. The supply-demand gap for ABF substrates is particularly pronounced, with a reported shortfall of 21% and prices rising by 38% over the past year [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the critical role of IC substrates in supporting AI computing power upgrades, with the technology's evolution being driven by the increasing density and performance requirements of AI chips [10].