联系人 常瑛珞 changyl@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《"HALO 交易"与"抱团"新战场》 2026-03-01 2. 《开辟"抱团"新战场》 2026-02- 25 3. 《出海打先锋，迎接开门红—策马逐牛 8》 2026-02-23 财通策略&多行业——2026 年 3 月金股 证券研究报告 月度金股 / 2026.03.02 分析师 徐陈翼 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030003 xucy@ctsec.com 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 当前美股经验-HALO 交易，放弃看不明白的科技后半场，提前转向长期左 侧交易替代对冲：美股科技虽然业绩持续向好、资本开支延续投入，但估值已 至高位、后续资本开支能延续几年+AI 会不会替代冲击软件/轻资产行业的担 忧增加。在科技业绩持续新高、行情难言结束之时，市场反而转向 HALO 交 易（重资产低过时），除了受益当前大宗商品涨价，背后其实是长期战略层面 放弃 allin 赚取科技最后一浪，转而选择低估值策略寻求对科技侧持仓的替代 和对冲。低估值选择上，由于周期/稳定/重制造等重资产方向难以被 AI 整体 替代，产业门槛仍然明确， ...

固收周报 避险情绪主导债市 美债收益率显著回落 美债收益率明显回落， 10 年期和 2 年期美债收益率上周分别下行 15 个和 10 个基 点至 3.94% 和 3.37% 。虽然近期数据显示美国通胀压力有所回升，但市场情绪被 避险情绪主导，带动美债收益率明显回落。受到美债收益率明显回落的提振，上 周中资美元债表现较佳，彭博巴克莱中资美元债总回报指数全周上涨 0.4% 。上 周末，美以正式对伊朗展开军事行动，伊朗随即反击，并封锁霍尔木兹海峡，带 动原油价格大幅上涨。特朗普称针对伊朗的军事行动可能会持续四星期，短期内 在避险情绪和通胀预期升温的共振下，美债可能维持波动。高于预期的通胀数据 和地缘冲突触发的能源价格上升，也进一步降低美联储于 3 月降息的可能性。在 岸市场方面， 3 年期和 10 年期国债收益率分别较春节假期前持平和上行 2 个基点 至 1.38% 和 1.82% 。周一，境内利率债市同样受到避险情绪提振，各期限国债收 益率普遍有所回落。两会将在本周召开，届时将公布 2026 年经济目标、财政支 持力度等，并可能释放更多货币政策信号，债市料将会有所定价。 离岸市场：美债市场提前定价战争风险 中资美 ...

房地产 [Table_Date] 发布时间：2026-03-02 $$i k\neq\pm i k$$ 【东北地产建筑|中期策略】生存到重生，分化与机遇 房地产行业有何可预见趋势 上海限购再松绑，楼市小阳春可期 政策复盘&展望：止跌回稳信心坚决，楼市政策窗口期将 ---2026W09 房地产周报 报告摘要： 近 [Table_Summary] 本周观点：上海限购再松绑，楼市小阳春可期 楼市量价止跌回稳进度如何 商业地产：稳地产促消费，消费+地产助力房企穿越周期 2025 展望：二手房市场量升价稳，新房市场各指标磨底 此次调整后，非沪籍居民外环内购房社保/个税年限由 3 年降至 1 年， 外环外仍为 1 年且不限套数；社保/个税满 3 年者，外环内可增购 1 套 至 2 套；持上海居住证满 5 年及以上，无需社保证明即可在全市限购 1 套。政策直接扩大外环内购房需求群体，同时新增居住证满 5 年购房人 群，整体购房池子扩容。此外，上海外环内成交占比持续提升，本次政 策对外环内市场带动更显著，对稳定二手房价格预期形成积极支撑。 修复 本周地产：A 股与港股跑输/跑赢大盘 投资建议：整体看来，2024 年 924 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4163 | 0.39 | 0.56 | 1.98 | | 深证综指 | 2764 | 0.3 | 1.67 | 3.1 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | -0.49 | -0.24 | 6.25 | | 中盘指数 | 0.95 | 1.7 | 25.16 | | 小盘指数 | 0.95 | 1.92 | 18.74 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小金属Ⅱ | 7.69 | 16.7 | 74.62 | | 焦炭Ⅱ | 4.86 | 12.97 | 28.07 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 4.11 | 9.76 | 12.59 | | 酒店餐饮 | 3.92 | 2.52 | 11.1 | | 燃气Ⅱ | 3.14 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产开发与服务 26 年第 9 周 小阳春复苏强劲，行情持续有支撑 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-03-02 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -6% 1% 9% 16% 24% 03/25 05/25 07/25 10/25 12/25 02/26 房地产 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]郭镇 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514080003 | | | SFC CE No. BNN906 | | | 021-38003639 | | | guoz@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 邢莘 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260520070009 | | | 021-38003638 | | | xingshen@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 谢淼 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260522070007 | | | SF ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 [Table_Title] 首批商业不动产 REITs 审核意见出炉 [Table_Title2] 公募 REITs 周速览（2026 年 2 月 24-27 日） [Table_Summary] 本周（2026 年 2 月 24-27 日）中证 REITs 全收益指数收于 1,035.8 点，周度 环比下跌 1.08%，较 1 月末下跌 1.58%。春节前后一周日均换手率分别仅为 0.33%、0.35%，成交仍然较为冷清。截至 2 月 27 日，我国已上市交易的 79 只 REITs 总市值收于 2274 亿元，其中流通市值 1252 亿元。 ►一级市场：商业不动产 REITs 申报数量增至 14 只，速度较快 本周交易所新受理 2 只商业不动产 REITs。截至 2026 年 2 月末，商业不动 产 REITs 申报数量已达 14 只，拟募集规模超 417 亿元，已超过 2025全年基础设 施公募 REITs 的募集规模。 从 2026 年 1 月 29 日首批商业不动产 REITs 申报以来，在 1 个月左右的时间 内， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the REITs market experienced a correction, with the CSI REITs Index falling 0.6% for the week. Only data center, ecological environment protection, and transportation REITs closed in the positive territory. In terms of the weekly price changes of major indices, the ranking is: CSI 300 > CSI Aggregate Bond > CSI Convertible Bond > CSI REITs. As of February 27, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs is 65 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield is 318 basis points. This week, the China Construction Bank Tianjin Lingang Port REIT was officially declared, marking an important breakthrough in the securitization of China's port industry assets [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - As of February 27, 2026, the closing price of the CSI REITs Index was 796.08 points, with a weekly price change of - 0.6%, performing worse than the CSI 300 Index (1.1%), the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (- 0.4%), and the CSI Convertible Bond Index (- 0.2%). Year - to - date, the ranking of price changes of major indices is: CSI Convertible Bond (+ 6.8%) > CSI REITs (+ 2.7%) > CSI 300 (+ 1.7%) > CSI Aggregate Bond (+ 0.6%). In the past year, the return of the CSI REITs Index was - 6.5%, and the volatility was 6.9%. The return was lower than that of the CSI Convertible Bond Index, the CSI 300 Index, and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index; the volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The total market capitalization of REITs on February 27 was 227.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4 billion yuan from the previous week; the average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.35%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points from the previous week [2][6][8]. - In terms of different project attributes, the average weekly price changes of equity - type REITs and concession - type REITs were - 1.5% and - 0.1% respectively. In terms of different project types, there was a divergence in price changes among sectors, with data center, ecological environment protection, and transportation REITs closing in the positive territory. The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increase were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (+ 2.68%), Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT (+ 2.33%), and Hua'an Waigaoqiao REIT (+ 1.70%) [3][15][18]. - Among different project types, new infrastructure REITs had the highest average daily turnover rate during the period, with an average daily turnover rate of 1.5%; transportation infrastructure REITs had the highest proportion of trading volume this week, accounting for 18.5% of the total trading volume of REITs. In terms of the capital flow of different REIT products this week, the top three in terms of net inflow of main funds were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (8.97 million yuan), Huatai Jiangsu Expressway REIT (8.18 million yuan), and China AMC Anbo Warehouse REIT (7.60 million yuan) [3][20][21]. Primary Market Issuance - From January 1 to February 27, 2026, there were 3 REIT products in the in - query stage, 10 products with feedback, 9 products declared, and 13 commercial real - estate REITs officially declared on the exchange [23]. Valuation Tracking - REITs have both bond and equity characteristics. From the bond perspective, under the constraint of mandatory high dividends, the annualized cash distribution rate is of concern. As of January 23, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%. From the equity perspective, the relative net value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO are used to judge the valuation of REITs. The relative net value premium rate reflects the relationship between the market value and the fair value of the fund, similar to the PB indicator of stocks; IRR is the internal rate of return calculated using the discounted cash - flow method; P/FFO is the current price divided by the cash flow generated from operations. The relative net value premium rate is a long - term indicator, evaluating the secondary - market valuation level from the valuation of underlying assets; P/FFO is a short - term indicator, estimating the distributable cash flow from the recent operation of assets to judge the current investment return [25]. - As of February 27, 2026, the dividend yield of equity REITs was 65 basis points lower than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend Stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of concession - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury yield was 318 basis points [1][26]. Industry News - On February 25, the Jianxin Tianjin Lingang Development Group Port Closed - end Infrastructure Securities Investment Fund was officially declared. The project was initiated by Tianjin Lingang Development Group, with Tianjin Lingang Port Group as the original equity holder and China Construction Bank Fund as the fund manager. Its underlying assets are 14 various types of terminal berths in the Dagukou Port Area, involving grain and oil terminals, general cargo terminals, and liquefied terminals, etc., with rich asset reserves and solid continuous operation capabilities. It is the first port real - estate investment trust fund (REITs) in China, marking an important breakthrough in the securitization of China's port industry assets [4][32]. - On February 27, the GF Xincheng Wuyue Closed - end Commercial Real - Estate Securities Investment Fund was officially declared. The initiator of this public - offering REITs is Wuyue Shunrui (Shanghai) Commercial Operation and Management Co., Ltd., the manager is GF Fund Management Co., Ltd., and Ruiyuan Capital Management Co., Ltd. is the special plan manager. The underlying assets are high - quality commercial complexes of Wuyue Plaza under New Town Holdings, which is one of the landmark projects promoted by private real - estate enterprises since the pilot implementation of commercial real - estate REITs [4][32].

2026年3月1日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 证券研究报告 优质港房财报现积极信号，打开股价上 行空间 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2 周度观点：新鸿基地产业绩增长&股息提升，优质港房报表端积极信号逐步显现。本周新鸿基地产公布2026财年半年报，2026财年上半年 收入同比增长32%，归母净利润同比增长36.2%，撇除投资物业公平值变动影响后的核心归母净利润同比增长16.7%；中期股息0.98港元/ 股，同比增长3%。同时公司紧抓中国香港楼市修复契机，报告期内新增多宗地块有望充分受益香港楼市回升，实际融资成本进一步下降 到3%。发展物业减值拨备由上年同期的10.8亿港币降至0，投资物业公允价值变动由上年同期-28.8亿港元缩减至本期-13.1亿港元，侧面 体现香港楼市回暖及商业零售逐步好转。 三重对比港房股价仍有空间，重申全年看好港资房企。我们认为港资房企上行空间仍存：1）以新鸿基地产为例，目前PB为0.68倍，仍低 于业务模式（开发+持有）类似的华润置地（0.77PB），但香港楼市已经企稳，内地楼市仍在探底；2）上轮香港楼市调整于2003年见底， 新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][26]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][26]. - The "Shanghai Seven" policy has been introduced to optimize local real estate regulations, which includes reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing housing fund loan limits [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the supply-side adjustments in the real estate market have significantly improved the industry landscape, making it attractive for investment [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][6]. - Year-on-year, February saw a 24.5% decline in new home transactions across 34 cities compared to the previous year [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11][12]. - However, February's cumulative transactions showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 cities had a total of 120,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 3.1 times [20][21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remains unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [26][27]. - The report notes significant policy changes in Shanghai, including adjustments to purchase eligibility for non-local residents and increased loan limits for first-time homebuyers [26][27]. - Guangzhou plans to invest 220 billion yuan in urban renewal by 2026, indicating a strong commitment to improving housing quality [30][31]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued a $355 million senior unsecured bond with a 3-year term and an interest rate of 11.8% [33][34]. - The report highlights the performance of various real estate stocks, noting that the SW Real Estate Index rose by 0.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market [34][35]. Sector Performance Review - The property management sector saw an average decline of 0.12%, while the SW Real Estate Index outperformed with a 1.08% increase [41][42]. - The report lists the top-performing real estate stocks, with notable gains from companies like *ST Rong Control and Heimu Dan, while others like Shanghai Development and Hainan Airport faced declines [35][38].

行 业 及 产 业 房地产 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 2026 年 03 月 01 日 春节后"沪七条"新政卡点推出，释 放稳楼市强信号并示范全国 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/2/21-2026/2/27） 本期投资提示： 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 相关研究 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、 ...