2026年02月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：情绪面发酵，盘面或高开高走 | 4 | | 工业硅：下方空间或不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 26 日 镍：沪镍投机情绪仍存，持续关注镍矿矛盾 不锈钢：成本支撑重心上移，淡季累库约束弹性 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 141,250 | 3,300 | 6,060 | 9,410 | -1,810 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 1月底2月初，镍价跟随贵金属和有色整体出现快速回调，LME镍最低至16500附近，沪镍则跌至13万附 近，随后便企稳震荡，目前已收复一半以上跌幅。 短期镍矿供应略偏紧 印尼将缩减镍矿配额的消息还在持续发酵，据悉，印尼当前已为2026年批准了约2.6亿-2.7亿镍矿开采配 额，略高于之前市场预估，但远低于2025年目标3.79亿吨。全球最大镍矿韦达湾预计将遭印尼政府大幅 缩减产量配额，今年获批矿石产量配额为1200万吨，远低于2025年的4200万吨，也低于2024年初批复的 基础配额1600万吨；不过，年初配额可在年中调整，最终产量存在弹性。同时，Nickel Industries旗下 Hengjaya矿山已获批2026年镍矿RKAB销售配额，总量由之前的900万湿吨显著提升至1430万湿吨。 据Mysteel，节后菲律宾和印尼镍矿价格稍有分歧，印尼2月下半月HPM基准价已按新HMA调整，各品 位价格小幅下跌约0.2-0.3美元/湿吨，升水暂维持节前水平，目前正值斋月，政府审批及矿山作业效率 放缓，供应难有明显增量；菲律宾方面，矿山持续少量出货 ...

[Table_Title] Nickel Industries 2025Q4 RKEF 项目 NPI 产量环比 增长 1%至 3.16 万吨 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 2 月 24 日 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► RKEF（火法冶炼）项目（公司持有 80% 的间接权益） 2025Q4 镍生铁（NPI）产量总计为 31,561 吨（100%基 础，下同），环比增长 1%，同比减少 4%。 2025Q4 NPI 销量总计 31,429 吨，环比增长 3%，同比减少 2%。 2025Q4 NPI 合同价格为 11,100 美元/吨，环比几乎持平， 同比下跌 7%。 2025Q4 NPI 销售收入为 3.503 亿美元，环比增长 2%，同 比减少 7%。 2025Q4 NPI 单位现金成本为 10,088 美元/吨，环比上涨 2%，同比下跌 5%。 2025Q4 NPI 调整后的 EBITDA 为 3500 万美元，环比减少 13%。 2025Q4 NPI 调整后单位销量的 EBITDA 为 1,114 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply disruption concerns continue, and base metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply disruption issues of copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [1]. - Copper: Supply disruptions in copper mines are frequent, and copper prices continue to run strongly [2][7]. - Alumina: The market sentiment is high, and alumina prices have rebounded strongly [2][7]. - Aluminum: The capital sentiment is optimistic, and aluminum prices continue to show a strong upward trend [2][9]. - Aluminum alloy: Cost support is strong, and the market continues to show a strong upward trend [2][11]. - Zinc: The short - term supply recovery is slow, and zinc prices fluctuate with non - ferrous metals [2][12]. - Lead: The absolute level of social inventory is low, and lead prices continue to rebound [2][16]. - Nickel: Supported by Indonesian policy expectations, nickel prices have soared [2][17]. - Stainless steel: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, the stainless - steel market has soared [2][21]. - Tin: Supply disruptions have emerged again, and tin prices are fluctuating upwards [2][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information analysis: In 2026, the copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark is set at $0/ton and $0/pound. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year. On January 7, 2026, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the futures contract. There were strikes at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile and a delay in the second - phase project of the Mirador copper mine in Ecuador [7]. - Main logic: The Fed's interest - rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply is tightening. Refined copper supply is expected to shrink, and although the current demand is weak, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to supply constraints and disruptions [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was flat, and the national weighted index decreased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipt was 154,828 tons, unchanged from the previous day [7]. - Main logic: The macro - sentiment amplifies market fluctuations. The supply is in a state of over - accumulation, and the cost support is average. The market is at the bottom and fluctuating, and more smelter production cuts or new ore - end disturbances are needed to boost prices [7]. - Outlook: The current supply - demand is in surplus, but the valuation is in the low - end range, and alumina is expected to remain volatile [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt on the SHFE increased. Some air - conditioning companies launched the "aluminum replacing copper" standard implementation work, while Gree promised not to raise prices and had no such plan [9]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is positive. The domestic production capacity and operating rate are high, and the overseas supply has constraints. The current high aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory has accumulated. Overall, the short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong [9]. - Outlook: In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and the demand is resilient, so the price center is expected to rise [9][10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum alloy - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of Baotai ADC12 aluminum alloy increased [11]. - Main logic: The cost support is strong due to the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The weekly operating rate decreased due to raw material shortages and profit issues. The demand is currently based on rigid procurement, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Overall, the cost support and stable supply - demand are expected to keep prices volatile and strong [11]. - Outlook: In the short and medium terms, prices are expected to be volatile and strong due to cost support and potential supply policy disturbances [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the spot price of zinc in different regions was at a premium to the futures contract. As of January 7, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased. The Mount Isa railway line in Australia was damaged, affecting zinc concentrate supply [12][14]. - Main logic: The macro - outlook is stable. The zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the smelter profit has declined. The domestic zinc ingot supply pressure is not large, and the demand is in the off - season. In the short term, zinc prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of price decline [14]. - Outlook: In January, zinc prices are expected to be volatile as the production increases slightly, the demand is in the off - season, and the non - ferrous metal sector is strong [14][15]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased. The social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly, and the SHFE lead warehouse receipt decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day holiday, the lead industry chain gradually resumed normal trading [16]. - Main logic: The spot premium decreased, the supply was affected by environmental protection with a decline in production, and the demand was mixed. The electric bicycle orders were weak, while the automobile battery orders improved [16]. - Outlook: As smelters resume production, the lead ingot production may increase. The demand is weakening marginally, but the high cost of waste batteries supports prices, so lead prices are expected to be volatile [16][17]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information analysis: On January 7, 2026, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased, and the LME nickel inventory increased. The January 2026 KSP price increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [17][18]. - Main logic: The supply pressure of nickel remains high, and the demand is in the traditional off - season. The policy of Indonesia on nickel production quota is uncertain. Overall, the current supply - demand is loose, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. - Outlook: In January, the supply - demand of nickel is expected to remain loose, and LME inventory is high, suppressing prices. However, if the actual Indonesian quota is low, the oversupply expectation will decline, and nickel prices are expected to be volatile [17][20]. 3.1.8 Stainless steel - Information analysis: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt decreased slightly. The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. Indonesia plans to regulate the 2026 nickel production quota through RKAB [21]. - Main logic: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the recovery of nickel - iron prices. The production in December decreased, and the production plan for January may increase slightly. The terminal demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. Overall, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][22]. - Outlook: In January, the production may increase slightly, but the demand is weak in the off - season. Considering the long - term suppressed industry profit and mine - end support, stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile [21][23]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information analysis: On January 6, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, the SHFE tin warehouse receipt decreased, and the SHFE tin position increased. The spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [24]. - Main logic: The supply of tin is a major concern. The resumption of production in the Wa State is affected by issues such as explosive approval, and the supply in Indonesia and Africa is also restricted. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the development of related industries [24]. - Outlook: Due to high supply risks and low inventory in the industry chain, tin prices are expected to be volatile and strong [24][25]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Index data - Comprehensive index: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [151]. - Non - ferrous metal index: On January 7, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2846.27, up 0.27% on the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [152].

Report Industry Investment Rating No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, the logic of weak US dollar expectations and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. The impact of weak real - time demand is limited, and supply disruption concerns continue to drive up base metals. Opportunities for low - buying and long - positions in copper, aluminum, and tin are worth attention. In the long term, with the expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China and ongoing supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin, there is an expected tightening in supply - demand, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情观点 - **Copper**: Supply contraction expectations are strong, and copper prices are expected to remain at a high level. The macro - environment of loose liquidity supports copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the supply of refined copper is expected to contract. Although terminal demand is weak and inventory is accumulating, the supply - demand for copper is expected to tighten [7]. - **Alumina**: Cost support is not very effective, and alumina prices are still under pressure. High - cost production capacity has some fluctuations, but the actual supply contraction is insufficient. The market is in a strong inventory - building trend, and raw material prices are weak. The cost support is average, and there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8][9]. - **Aluminum**: With optimistic capital sentiment, aluminum prices have risen significantly. The macro - outlook is positive. On the supply side, domestic operating capacity and utilization rates are high, and there are constraints on medium - term supply. On the demand side, high aluminum prices have suppressed demand to some extent, and inventory has increased. In the short term, the positive macro - outlook and expected tightening of supply - demand suggest that aluminum prices will remain in a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, the price center is expected to rise [11][12]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Cost support is strong, and the market has risen significantly. The cost support from tight scrap aluminum supply is solid. Supply is restricted by factors such as raw material shortages and profit inversions. Demand is currently based on rigid needs, and the medium - term demand is expected to improve. With cost support and stable supply - demand, prices are expected to remain in a strong - side oscillation in the short and medium terms [13][14]. - **Zinc**: The import ore TC has not stopped falling, and zinc prices have rebounded with the non - ferrous sector. The macro - outlook may be volatile. On the supply side, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and smelter profits are declining. On the demand side, it is the off - season, and demand is average. In the short term, zinc prices may remain in high - level oscillation, and there is a possibility of decline in the long - term [15][16]. - **Lead**: With the accumulation of social inventory, lead prices are oscillating with the non - ferrous sector. On the supply side, production has decreased due to environmental protection and other factors. On the demand side, electric bicycle orders are weak, while automobile battery orders are improving. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [17][18]. - **Nickel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the market is oscillating. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026. On the supply side, there is pressure. On the demand side, it is in the off - season. Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and the actual quota implementation needs to be monitored [18][20]. - **Stainless Steel**: With repeated expectations of nickel ore quotas, the stainless - steel market has corrected. The cost has some support. Production decreased in December, and there may be a slight increase in January. Terminal demand is cautious, and inventory may accumulate. Stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate, and Indonesian policy changes need to be tracked [21][22]. - **Tin**: With continued capital games, tin prices are running strongly. Supply risks are high. On the supply side, there are disruptions in various regions, and refined tin production is difficult to increase. On the demand side, it is expected to grow due to factors such as the semiconductor industry and new energy. Tin prices are expected to run strongly in an oscillating manner [22][24]. 2.行情监测 - **Copper**: No specific monitoring content is provided in the given text. - **Alumina**: On January 5, the spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a slight decline in Xinjiang. The alumina warehouse receipts were 156,917 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8]. - **Aluminum**: On January 5, the SMM AOO average price was 23,310 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan/ton from the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods in the main consumption areas increased. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the SHFE increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production [11]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: On January 5, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 22,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Zinc**: On January 5, the spot premiums of zinc in different regions were reported. As of January 5, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions was 114,800 tons, up 8,700 tons from December 31, 2025. In 2025, the import of zinc concentrates increased significantly [15][16]. - **Lead**: On January 5, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots increased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly [17]. - **Nickel**: On January 5, the SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased, and the LME nickel inventory also increased slightly. Indonesia will regulate nickel production quotas in 2026 [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. On January 5, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 was reported [21]. - **Tin**: On January 5, the LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the SHFE tin positions decreased. The average price of 1 tin ingots increased [24].

Market Overview - Major U.S. index futures indicate a slightly lower open, with stocks likely to see further downside after three consecutive days of modest declines [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq is up by 21% for 2025, S&P 500 is up by 17%, and Dow is up by 13% [2] - Trading activity is subdued as traders prepare for New Year's Eve celebrations [2] Trading Activity - On Tuesday, major averages showed a lack of direction, ending modestly lower: Dow down 94.87 points (0.2%) to 48,367.06, Nasdaq down 55.27 points (0.2%) to 23,419.08, and S&P 500 down 9.50 points (0.1%) to 6,896.24 [3] - Biotechnology stocks fell significantly, with the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index down by 1.5% [6] - Telecom stocks showed strength, driving the NYSE Arca North American Telecom Index up by 1.1% [7] Federal Reserve Insights - Traders were initially hesitant to make significant moves ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes [4] - The minutes revealed mixed views on the outlook for interest rates, with some participants suggesting further rate cuts if inflation declines, while others felt rates should remain unchanged for some time [5] Commodity and Currency Markets - Crude oil futures increased by $0.57 to $58.52 per barrel after a previous decline [8] - Gold is trading at $4,339.30, down $47 from the previous session [8] - The U.S. dollar is trading at 156.76 yen, up from 156.39 yen [8] Asian Market Performance - Major Asian stock markets closed mixed, with Japan and South Korea markets closed [9] - China's Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.1% to 3,968.84, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.6% [10] - The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong slid 0.9% to 25,606.37 [11] European Market Performance - European stocks moved modestly lower, with the French CAC 40 Index down by 0.2% and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index down by 0.1% [14] - Notable declines included Stellantis down 1.7% and several other companies losing between 0.8% to 1.2% [15] U.S. Economic News - First-time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly dipped to 199,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week [17][18] - The four-week moving average inched up to 218,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average [18]

Core Insights - Indonesia is the world's largest producer of nickel, holding 42.3% of global reserves and home to significant deposits like Sorowako and Weda Bay [2][3] - Chinese companies dominate Indonesia's nickel production, owning approximately 40% of mined nickel and holding stakes in 75 out of 357 nickel projects [1] - The Australian government is keen to enhance its role in the global supply chain for critical minerals, particularly nickel, to support its electric vehicle (EV) industry [5][6] Production and Market Dynamics - Indonesia's nickel production increased from over 1,400 tonnes in 2022 to nearly 2,000 tonnes in 2024, contributing to a global nickel surplus expected to last until 2027-28 [9][13] - The average nickel price fell to $16,234 per million tonnes in Q3 2024, a 20.4% decrease compared to the same period in 2023, due to high production levels [10] - Indonesia's share of global mined nickel surged from 16% in 2017 to over 50% by 2024, driven by its ability to undercut competitors [13][14] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Indonesian mining ministry announced a reduction in the validity term for nickel mining quotas from three years to one, which has raised concerns among miners about potential delays [11][12] - Indonesia's "hilirisasi" policy aims to promote domestic processing of minerals while reducing reliance on coal, but it raises questions about balancing environmental goals with economic benefits [16][21] Environmental and Social Considerations - Nickel mining in Indonesia has led to significant environmental degradation, including deforestation and pollution in ecologically sensitive areas like Raja Ampat [17][19] - Reports indicate that ESG standards in Indonesian nickel mining are largely voluntary, and stronger compliance could attract more investment from the US and Australia [20][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Maintain buy on VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 due to its all-time high first half recurring EBITDA [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, recent USD MEITUA 31 - 35s widened 2 - 4bps with RM selling; TW lifers SHIKON/FUBON/NSINTWs widened 2 - 5bps; BBLTB sub curve was 1 - 4bps wider; JP bank FRNs held up well, JP AT1s dropped by 0.3pt; JP insurance hybrids were marked lower; Yankee AT1s were down by 0.4pt then stabilized; NWDEVL Perps lowered 0.7 - 2.0pts, NWDEVL 27 - 31s were down by 0.6 - 1.3pts; LASUDE 26 was 1.4pts lower; MTRC perps lost up to 0.2pt; VNKRLE 27 - 29 recovered 2.7 - 2.9pts; GRNCH 28 fell by up to 0.5pt; Macau gaming stocks had mixed performance; HYNMTRs/HYUELEs traded 1 - 3bps wider; NTT curve was 1 - 3bps wider; PETMK curve was 2 - 4bps wider on the long end; SMCGL Perps/GARUDA 31 were down by 0.1 - 0.2pt; VEDLN 28 - 33s were 0.3 - 1.1pts lower; onshore AAA - guaranteed LGFV papers were sought after [2] - This morning, new CDBFLC 35 widened 2bps, new QBEAU 37 tightened 3bps, new STANLN PerpNC10 was 0.2pt higher; JP insurance bonds and MTRC Perps were down by 0.1 - 0.3pt; NUFAU 30 rose 0.9pt, SOFTBK 61/65s and NWDEVL 30 were 0.6 - 0.7pt lower; TW lifers widened 2 - 4bps [3] Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers include VNKRLE 3.975 11/09/27 (price 60.3, change 2.9), VNKRLE 3 1/2 11/12/29 (price 52.0, change 2.7), etc. - Top underperformers include NWDEVL 6 1/4 PERP (price 42.3, change - 2.0), NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 44.0, change - 1.9), etc. [4] Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, S&P (-1.17%), Dow (-0.53%) and Nasdaq (-2.04%) were lower; UST yield was lower, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.58%/3.69%/4.10%/4.67% [6] Desk Analyst Comments on VEDLN - VEDLN's 2QFY26 recurring EBITDA reached INR116.1bn, up 12% yoy; 1HFY26 EBITDA rose to INR223.6bn, 42% of full - year target of USD6bn; prefer VEDLN 9.475 07/24/30 with YTW of 9.0% and 106bps yield pickup over NICAU 9 09/30/30 [7] - VEDLN's average borrowing cost declined to c9.0% in 1HFY26 from c9.7% in 1QFY26, expected to fall below 8% near - term; PAT dropped 26% yoy to INR79.4bn due to one - off losses [10] - 1HFY26 operating cash flow decreased 12% yoy to INR162.3bn; spent INR102.6bn in capex, 61 - 68% of FY26 target; estimated 1HFY26 FCF was INR59.7bn [11] - As of Sep'25, cash and equivalents increased to INR218.6bn; total debt/LTM EBITDA and net debt/LTM EBITDA rose slightly to 1.9x and 1.4x; aims to bring net leverage down to 1.0x near - term [12] - Deleveraging may face headwinds from JPA acquisition; demerger hearing postponed to 12 Nov'25, seen as moderately credit positive [13] Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced issues include Alinma Sukuk Limited (USD500mn, 10NC5, 5.792%, T + 210), China Development Bank Financial Leasing (USD500mn, 10NC5, 4.6%, T + 93), etc. - Pipeline issues include Gaoxin International Investment (unrated, 3yr, 5.0%), Korea Electric Power Corporation (Aa2/AA/-, 3yr/SOFR + 95, 5yr/T + 80), etc. [17][18] News and Market Color - 99 credit bonds issued yesterday onshore with RMB106bn; MTD, 206 credit bonds issued with RMB190bn, 19.2% yoy increase [20] - Adani Enterprises 1HFY26 EBITDA fell 11% yoy to INR76.9bn, plans to raise INR250bn via rights issue [20] - Adani Ports 1HFY26 EBITDA rose 20% yoy to INR110.5bn, Fitch changed outlook to stable and affirmed BBB - rating [20] - China to boost subsidies for Alibaba, Tencent to cut data center energy bills [20] - Moody's upgraded Bharti Airtel to Baa2 from Baa3, outlook to stable [20] - GLP China repurchased USD205mn of GLPCHI 2.95 03/29/26, USD495mn outstanding [20] - Nickel Industries to hold non - deal roadshow on 19 Nov'25 [20] - Petron 9M25 revenue fell 10% yoy to PHP594.9bn [20] - Pertamina Geothermal targets 6.1% revenue increase for FY26 [20] - SK Telecom plans full - scale AI infrastructure expansion [20]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Rare Earths and NdFeB Magnet Markets - **Region**: China and Southeast Asia Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Policy Changes**: In August 2025, Beijing implemented new interim measures tightening controls on rare earth mining and processing, with production quotas no longer disclosed publicly. The first batch of 2025 quotas showed mining quotas up 2-5% YoY, with light rare earths comprising ~85% and medium/heavy rare earths ~15% [3][3][3] 2. **Feedstock Imports Decline**: China's rare earth feedstock imports fell by ~20% YoY from January to August 2025. Myanmar, a significant source, has mandated a halt to local rare earth mining from December 31, 2025, which could impact global NdPr supply [4][4][4] 3. **Price Trends**: NdPr prices are expected to soften into Q4 2025 from ~US$75/kg, influenced by eased export controls in Southeast Asia. However, there is potential upside risk for Dy and Tb prices due to thin spot markets and increasing European premiums [5][5][5] 4. **Export Recovery**: China's rare earth oxide exports rebounded significantly, with July exports at 6,422 tons (+69% YoY). Magnet exports also surged after a decline in May, indicating a recovery driven by backlogged orders and accelerated export license issuance [6][6][6] 5. **Capacity Utilization**: China's rare earth smelter operating rates decreased from ~40% in February to ~29% in July 2025, with leading enterprises maintaining higher rates due to scale and technology advantages [9][9][9] 6. **Magnet Price Stabilization**: N55 magnet blank prices rose sharply from ~US$23/kg in June to ~US$37–$38.50/kg in September 2025, with expectations for stabilization as order backlogs clear [10][10][10] 7. **Demand Drivers**: Strong demand is supported by electric vehicle sales, renewable energy, and automation/robotics. The introduction of humanoid robots is projected to add ~6,100 tons of NdFeB demand in 2025 [12][12][12] 8. **Supply Constraints**: Mined output remains stable under control quotas, but summer heat/power curbs and tighter governance are expected to lower mined supply in Q4 2025 [13][13][13] Additional Important Information - **Geopolitical Factors**: The geopolitical situation in Myanmar has led to a significant reduction in rare earth flows, which could have broader implications for global supply chains [4][4][4] - **Market Dynamics**: The interplay between domestic production and import reliance is critical, with a sourcing ratio of ~3:1 favoring domestic supply YTD [4][4][4] - **Future Projects**: Limited new mining projects are anticipated in the near term, although downstream expansions continue, such as a 10ktpa separation line under construction [11][11][11] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends affecting the rare earths and NdFeB magnet markets, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2025 was $159.3 million, slightly above the $155.7 million recorded in 2024, with profit after tax increasing by 80% to $25.5 million from $14 million in 2024 [3][11][12] - Gross profit rose to $114.8 million, up 19%, and operating profit increased by 12% to $98.7 million [8] - Total liabilities decreased slightly due to amortizing debt, with a focus on refinancing to extend tenor and lower costs [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Hangzhou mine produced over 11.5 million wet metric tons, with adjusted EBITDA of $70.3 million, a significant improvement from 2024 [4][16] - RKF operations saw lower EBITDA due to higher costs and ore shortages, despite an improving NPI price [9][12] - HPAL operations performed well, with production above 2024 levels and stable cash costs, resulting in EBITDA per ton margins around $5,900 [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - NPI price increased from $11,290 to $11,350, while cash costs rose from $9,716 to $10,117 due to higher oil prices [12][13] - The company is experiencing a slight upward trend in nickel prices, which is expected to positively impact future margins [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on responsible and sustainable mining, with initiatives like the Nickel Industries Foundation and a conservation area within the Hengjai mining concession [2][3] - Development of the Sampala project is progressing well, with expectations to host over 1 billion wet metric tons [6][19] - The company aims to double production at the Hengdai mine and is targeting commissioning of the cathode plant by late 2025 [17][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's performance despite challenges in nickel prices, highlighting strong growth in the mining sector [42] - The company anticipates further growth with the imminent release of an RKB that requires no CapEx for increased mine sales [42] Other Important Information - The company has deferred payments for E and C totaling $126.5 million to January and April, allowing for additional production and EBITDA [11] - The cathode plant is expected to be commissioned in October or November, with all key equipment fabricated and erected [17][35] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on debt refinancing and balance sheet management - Management confirmed entering a commitment letter for a $100 million loan facility to support working capital and is evaluating alternative debt funding options [21][23] Question: Dividend withdrawal reasoning - Management stated the withdrawal is a prudent balance sheet management decision, prioritizing financial stability over dividend payouts [26] Question: Update on VAT refunds and timing - Management expects the $110 million VAT refunds within the next six to twelve months and is in dialogue with the Indonesian government [28][29] Question: Timing for environmental study approval and production targets - Management indicated that the RKB approval is expected by September, with Sampala targeting 6 million tonnes per annum by the end of the year [30] Question: Factors influencing commissioning of the cathode plant - Management explained the delay in commissioning is due to high working capital demands and the need to ensure a strong balance sheet [34][36]