Group 1 - The upcoming Year of the Horse has sparked a consumption boom in Taiyuan, with various products featuring "horse elements" appearing in stores and online, reflecting the cultural significance of the zodiac and consumer enthusiasm for the holiday [2][4] - Major shopping malls in Taiyuan are utilizing the "horse" theme through immersive decorations and diverse promotions, enhancing the shopping experience and attracting consumers [4][7] - Jewelry stores are seeing increased sales of horse-themed items, with some products like the "cute horse fortune bag" priced around 2500 yuan, indicating a strong demand for symbolic gifts during the New Year [4][5] Group 2 - The integration of traditional zodiac culture with modern consumer trends is driving the popularity of the "horse economy," as businesses combine cultural elements with practical designs to appeal to consumers [10] - Supermarkets and online platforms are also experiencing high sales, with creative offerings such as themed gift boxes and zodiac decorations, showcasing the versatility of the market [7][8] - Restaurants are capitalizing on the zodiac theme by offering special New Year dinner packages that resonate with cultural significance, further enhancing consumer interest in festive dining options [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [9] Core Insights - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 surpassed 50 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.7% compared to the previous year. Online retail sales reached 15.97 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6%, while service retail sales increased by 5.5%. The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 52.0%, an increase of 5 percentage points from the previous year [3][9] - The 2026 CES showcased a strong embrace of AI technology, focusing on practical applications. Major chip companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Intel are shifting their attention to physical AI and edge AI, indicating a significant trend in AI hardware development [12][9] - The popularity of collectible toys is rising, with products from Pop Mart, such as the PUCKY series, gaining significant attention and selling out quickly. This trend suggests a potential new focus in the collectible toy market [14][15] Summary by Sections Macro Consumption - In 2025, the retail sales of social consumer goods reached 50.12 trillion yuan, with online retail and service retail sales growing by 8.6% and 5.5%, respectively. The contribution of final consumption to economic growth was 52.0% [3][9] - Service consumption is becoming more vibrant, with a projected 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure dedicated to service-related spending in 2025. Various sectors like tourism, entertainment, and sports are expected to see double-digit growth [3][11] AI + Consumption - The CES 2026 highlighted the integration of AI in consumer products, with a focus on AI hardware that is becoming more mature and applicable. The emergence of AI glasses and other smart devices indicates a shift towards consumer-grade AI products [12][9] - Companies such as Luxshare Precision, GoerTek, and KANAT Optical are recommended for investment in the AI hardware sector [16] Collectible Toys - Pop Mart's new product lines, including the "Starry Person" series, have quickly sold out, indicating a strong market interest. The resale prices of these products have seen significant increases, suggesting a robust demand in the collectible toy market [15][16]

行业评级：看好（维持） 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 传媒 2026年1月23日 招股书·解牛系列报告（一） TOPTOY：中国位居前列的潮玩集合品牌 证券分析师 姓名：陈良栋 资格编号：S1350524100003 邮箱chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 目录 1. 公司概况：始于实体门店，成为潮玩集合零售商 2. 行业概况：潮玩IP产业景气度持续上修，TOP TOY市占 率高 3. 公司业务：打造"自有IP+授权IP+他牌IP"矩阵，构建 全产业价值链环节的一体化平台 4. 风险提示 • "产品不再是被动陈列的库存，而成为互动的道具。空间既为社交联结而设计，亦为交易转化而存在。" 核心观点 • 收入快速增长，盈利能力显著改善：2024年TOPTOY在中国内地实现GMV24亿元人民币，其中自研产品收入占比接 近50%。2022-2024年GMV复合年增长率超过50%。2022/2023/2024/2025H1分别实现收入6.79/14.61/19.09/13.60亿元， 对应毛利率19.9%/31.4%/32.7%/32.4%，对应经调整净 ...

花九块九就能把一个正版哪吒手办买走，来自湖南湘潭的玩具企业桑尼森迪，凭借国潮文创领域中的蜜 雪冰城的平价定位，叩响了港交所的大门。 虽然产品售价不高，但桑尼森迪却豪掷超5000万元获取IP授权。一边是平价的盲盒产品，一边是高昂的 IP成本，这家价版泡泡玛特的IPO故事成色几何？ (图源：小红书) 一部《哪吒2》捧出的爆款手办 桑尼森迪的崛起和《哪吒之魔童闹海》的爆火紧密相关。2025年，动画电影《哪吒之魔童闹海》上映后 引起观影热潮，桑尼森迪展现出极快的市场反应速度，在电影首映当天就推出了第一批周边产品，三天 里完成全国主要渠道的铺货，成功赶上了IP热度的第一波流量红利。 (图源：小红书) 这波流量红利直观地反映在公司财务报表里。招股书所呈现的数据显示，2025年前三季度，桑尼森迪收 获3.86亿元的营收，远超2024年全年累计的2.45亿元。 | IP玩具產品 | 29,820 | 48.6 75,861 46.1 302,662 78.3 28.0 118,849 | | --- | --- | --- | | IP玩具+ | 76,827 | 72.0 125,774 51.4 88,867 53.9 ...

Industry Environment - The domestic mid-to-high-end women's clothing market is witnessing the emergence of new brands that attract high-net-worth customers through differentiated positioning and high-quality materials [2] - Brands like AWPROJECT and CHICJOC are expanding rapidly, with AWPROJECT focusing on urban women and CHICJOC implementing a "luxury alternative" strategy to achieve high repurchase rates [2] - International brands such as AnnAndelman are accelerating their presence in the Chinese market, leveraging unique designs and online-offline integration to drive market reshuffling [2] Outdoor Lifestyle Migration - Over 500 million participants are engaged in outdoor sports in China, with a shift in consumer logic towards multi-scenario adaptability, sustainability, and emotional value [3] - The outdoor apparel market is growing at an annual rate of 49%, with consumers prioritizing durability, environmental friendliness, and multifunctionality [3] - Future trends include the proliferation of smart equipment, community integration, and the "no-trace outdoor" concept, driving professional development in the industry [3] Fast Fashion Trends - The fast fashion industry is undergoing significant changes by 2025, characterized by three main trends: premiumization, acceleration, and technology-driven innovation [5] - International brands like Uniqlo and H&M are entering the high-end market through price increases and collaborations, while local brands are expanding overseas [5] - The integration of online and offline channels is deepening, with brands utilizing AI technology in design, warehousing, and marketing to enhance efficiency [5] Luxury Goods Market - The luxury goods sector is experiencing a "store opening wave," with brands like CHANEL and Louis Vuitton opening new stores in China, indicating signs of recovery [7] - The Asia-Pacific market, particularly China, is a key growth driver, while the Japanese market shows mixed performance due to currency and tourism impacts [7] - Brands are focusing on core markets and accelerating localization marketing to strengthen cultural resonance [7] Consumer Behavior Shifts - Consumers are increasingly prioritizing functionality and brand trust over mere trends, as evidenced by the popularity of high-value down jackets [4] - The success of Sam's Club's down jackets reflects a new rational consumption trend where consumers value core needs like warmth and cost-effectiveness [4] - The shift in women's shopping behavior towards men's and children's clothing highlights a growing demand for quality and practicality over traditional fashion norms [13] Jewelry Market Trends - The jewelry market is witnessing a resurgence of retro styles, with a focus on emotional resonance and personalized design appealing to younger consumers [14] - The global jewelry market is expected to grow, with the U.S. and U.K. projected annual growth rates of 1.78% and 3.35%, respectively [14] - The industry is transitioning from "material consumption" to "spiritual consumption," emphasizing the balance between craftsmanship and emotional needs [15] Brand Dynamics - The luxury e-commerce platform Mile has acquired the bankrupt fashion retailer Matches, aiming to reshape luxury retail with a new business model [24] - Scottish luxury cashmere brand Begg x Co is expanding into the Chinese market through a strategic partnership with Meizui, launching its official Tmall flagship store [25] - Sequoia China has acquired a controlling stake in the fashion brand Golden Goose, aiming to support its global expansion and strengthen its market position [26]

Core Viewpoint - Miniso's third-quarter report shows a significant revenue milestone, with quarterly income surpassing 5 billion and a year-on-year growth of 28.2%, exceeding expectations. The founder's comments about transforming the company into a cultural and creative entity by closing and reopening 80% of stores have drawn considerable attention, overshadowing the actual performance of the company [5][7]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Miniso's revenue has fluctuated around 9 billion from 2019 to 2021, with a nearly halved adjusted net profit margin of 5.3% in the 2021 fiscal year [9][11]. - The company aims to achieve a global brand recognition comparable to Nike and Starbucks, focusing on opening larger stores and increasing premium product offerings [14][19]. Group 2: Strategic Shift - The company is transitioning from a low-cost, high-volume model to a high-value, premium pricing strategy, with plans to upgrade smaller stores to larger formats and increase the proportion of IP products [19][25]. - Miniso's flagship store in Shanghai has a sales structure where nearly 80% of revenue comes from IP products, reflecting a shift towards interest-driven consumption [21][18]. Group 3: Market Positioning - The average selling price in overseas markets is reported to be twice that of domestic prices, with a gross margin exceeding 50% [16]. - The company is facing competition from other brands like Pop Mart, which has a higher revenue per store despite having fewer locations [17][30]. Group 4: IP Strategy - Miniso's revenue is primarily derived from various popular IPs, with a significant increase in IP product sales, which accounted for over 30% of total sales in the first half of the year [18][28]. - The company has signed contracts with multiple IP artists, aiming for half of its store offerings to consist of proprietary IPs in the future [32][33].

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 江楚雅 凭借门店扩张与"名创优品+TOPTOY"双品牌策略，名创优品（09896.HK）营收增长。 得益于高质量发展战略深化，名创优品2025年第三季度经营质量与竞争力双提升，营收、同店销售等指标超预 期，展现强劲增长韧性。 财报数据显示，该季度集团总营收57.97亿元，同比增长28%。其中，核心品牌名创优品营收52.2亿元，同比增长 23%；潮玩品牌TOPTOY表现亮眼，单季度营收5.7亿元，同比激增111%，创历史新高。利润端同样稳健，集团该 季度毛利25.9亿元，同比增长28%，毛利率维持44.7%；经调整净利润（非国际财务报告准则）7.7亿元，同比增长 12%，经调整净利率13.2%。 门店网络布局持续完善，截至2025年9月30日，名创优品集团全球门店总数突破8000家，达8138家。具体来看，名 创优品品牌全球门店7831家；TOPTOY全球门店增至307家，其中海外门店15家，已覆盖泰国、马来西亚、印度尼 西亚、日本等市场。 渠道战略升级进一步拉动销售，公司当前进入"大店驱动增长"阶段，同店销售贡献显著。分市场来看，中国内地 市场营收29.1亿元，同比增长19%，增 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 market is rapidly expanding due to factors such as rising disposable income, the emergence of emotional consumption, the rise of domestic潮流 culture, and quality IPs [1][4] - The competitive landscape of the潮玩 market in China is relatively fragmented, with significant room for improvement compared to Japan [1][5] 潮玩 Industry Overview -潮玩 is defined as toys that integrate elements of潮流 culture, art, design, and various other concepts, characterized by high visual recognition, limited releases, and cross-industry collaborations [1] - The潮玩 industry includes various forms such as blind boxes, figurines, plush toys, gashapon, cards, dolls, art toys, assembly toys, and building sets [1] 潮玩 Industry Chain - The upstream segment consists of IP suppliers and operators, where high-quality IP suppliers hold strong bargaining power based on the scarcity and market popularity of their IPs [2] - The midstream includes潮玩 product manufacturers, who generally have weaker bargaining power; manufacturers with large-scale production capabilities are more likely to succeed [2] - The downstream segment involves retailers and consumers, where retailers' bargaining power depends on the quantity and quality of their IP reserves [2] Comparison with Japanese Toy Industry - The Japanese toy industry has matured and offers valuable lessons for China; despite challenges like declining birth rates, the industry has thrived due to the rise of gaming and anime [3] - In China, rising disposable income and a shift towards emotional consumption are driving demand for潮玩 and related products, despite demographic challenges [3] Market Growth and Projections - The Chinese潮玩 market is projected to grow from 22.9 billion yuan in 2020 to 76.3 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.11% [4] Market Concentration and Competition - The Chinese潮玩 market is currently fragmented, with the top five companies holding a combined market share of only 23.7% [5] - New domestic companies are rapidly expanding, with significant growth rates compared to international giants [5] - The quality and quantity of domestic IPs are increasing, with notable examples including《原神》,《黑神话：悟空》, and characters from泡泡玛特 [5]

Core Insights - The recent launch of the "Vacation Mode" blind box series by Pop Mart's popular IP Crybaby sold out quickly, with hidden variants reaching secondary market prices of up to 999 yuan, representing a premium of over six times the original price [1][3] - The rapid growth of the trendy toy market has led to an influx of counterfeit products marketed as "affordable alternatives" or "high-quality replicas," with some online stores reporting sales exceeding 100,000 units [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The trendy toy market is experiencing significant demand, with Pop Mart's Crybaby series being particularly popular, leading to shortages in physical stores [3] - Counterfeit products are widely available online, with prices ranging from 12 yuan to over 40 yuan, and some sellers reporting sales of up to 29,000 units for these replicas [3] Group 2: Regulatory Environment - E-commerce platforms claim to prohibit the sale of counterfeit products and conduct regular checks based on product names and keywords, allowing consumers to report violations [4] - Regulatory authorities in cities like Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Guangzhou have initiated special actions against the production and sale of counterfeit goods, with Shanghai Customs seizing over 63,000 infringing items in the first half of the year [4] Group 3: Industry Projections - According to a report by iResearch, the Chinese IP trendy toy market is projected to reach approximately 67.8 billion yuan in 2024, with expectations to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2027 and approach 130 billion yuan by 2029 [5] - Experts emphasize the need for stronger regulations to protect consumer rights and intellectual property, suggesting that brands collaborate with partners to create comprehensive IP protection systems [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the transformation in domestic consumption logic, with brands focusing on niche markets while capturing larger market shares, leading to innovative business models [1][3] - The rise of local specialty restaurants, referred to as "土菜," is becoming a significant force in the dining sector, with a notable increase in popularity and engagement on social media platforms [10][13] - The trend of mid-range dining brands is evolving, moving away from price wars to offering quality alternatives that cater to both high-end and budget-conscious consumers [14][15] Group 2 - The emergence of designer brands in the market is characterized by a focus on practicality and quality, with many new players accelerating their expansion [20][21] - The "pretty meal" trend is shifting towards a focus on product quality and service experience, moving beyond mere aesthetic appeal to meet the demands of younger consumers [25][27] - The growth of IP-driven brands is evident, with many popular IPs establishing independent stores to enhance fan engagement and create immersive experiences [17][19]