摘要 内卷导致资源错配，企业边际收益递减，长期扭曲竞争机制，阻碍企业 向微笑曲线两端发展，损害行业创新能力和质量标准，最终由消费者承 担低价低质的后果。 中国政府自 2024 年以来，通过中央政治局会议、经济工作会议及各部 委行政法规，在法律、产业、财政、医保、投资准入等多维度推动反内 卷治理，行业层面已扩散至有色金属、光伏、汽车、水泥及金融等。 可通过 CAPEX 毛利率和存货历史分位水平衡量行业内卷程度，上游周 期资源行业内卷程度较高，中游制造与下游科技行业相对较紧致；行业 集中度高和国企占比高的行业，政策响应力更强，供给侧出清速率更快。 内卷导致中国供需矛盾机制性扭曲，消费比重下降，企业研发支出增速 放缓，影响产业升级。光伏企业因产能过剩和技术升级滞后，错失发展 机遇。 当前反垄断和反内卷政策目标是治理低价无序竞争，推动落后产能退出， 提振通胀预期，降低实际利率以刺激居民需求，并建立动态行业清单管 理机制，避免对新兴产业的过度压制。 "反内卷"政策的脉络与展望 20250821 Q&A 什么是内卷，经济学理论如何解释内卷现象？ 内卷是一种没有发展的增长或无效的过度竞争。最早由美国人类学家格尔茨提 出，后 ...

化工 战略看多石化行业反内卷 20250821 摘要 中国石化行业正经历从"能耗双控"向"碳双控"的政策转变，对炼化 和乙烯等高耗能行业提出更严格的能耗标准，加速行业结构调整。 行业老旧装置面临加速淘汰，以 20 年为限，炼油产能占比约 32%，乙 烯产能占比约 17%，200 万吨以下炼油装置占全国总产能 6.5%，30 万吨以下乙烯装置占比 15%。 石化市场整体处于宽松底部震荡，产品价差和龙头企业盈利能力具备安 全边际，海外炼油产能因高油价和绿色转型而逐步退出，为国内企业带 来修复机会。 欧洲和日本炼厂面临高油价和运营压力，逐步退出市场，预计 2024 年 至 2027 年底欧洲将退出约 400-500 万吨乙烯产能，日本也将退出部分 产能，影响全球石化格局。 石化行业面临破产和整合风险，部分企业如英力士、壳牌欧洲等面临经 营压力，韩国石化行业寻求自救，老旧产能被新增产能取代，芳烃领域 新增项目审批严格。 油价回调至约 65 美元/桶，前期高油价风险释放，OPEC 增产和美国页 岩油成本支撑油价，为石化产业链布局提供时间窗口。 建议关注恒力石化、荣盛石化、东方盛虹、桐昆股份等炼油企业，以及 宝丰能源和卫 ...

深圳前7个月累计进出口2.58万亿元 继续位居内地外贸城市首位 【深圳经济新闻联播】 深圳为跨境资金开通"高速路" 业务额已达3500亿美元 据深圳商报，最新数据显示，深圳率先开展跨国公司本外币跨境资金池业务试点，实现币种自选、划转 自由、资金混用，截至今年7月底，55家跨国公司参与了试点，惠及跨国公司境内外成员企业近2000 家，业务额达到了3500亿美元，展现了跨境金融创新的巨大活力。 从深圳海关获悉，今年以来，深圳外贸顶压前行，进出口逐步向好。前7个月，深圳累计进出口2.58万 亿元，与去年同期持平，继续位居内地外贸城市首位。其中，出口1.56万亿元；进口1.02万亿元，增长 9.4%。7月份，深圳进出口4159.4亿元，增长6.2%。其中，出口2556.2亿元，增长4.7%，创今年以来单 月出口规模新高；进口1603.2亿元，增长8.8%。 【国内财经新闻】 国际金融机构看好中国股市 中国股市点燃海外资金热情 8月19日，据央视财经，对于近期A股的表现，一些国际金融机构分析表示，多项稳经济政策逐步落 地，上市企业估值修复和业绩预期向好，这些因素共同驱动A股上行。高盛中国股票策略分析师付思表 示，国内最 ...

1、 财政部数据显示，1—7月，全国一般公共预算收入135839亿元，同比增长0.1%。其中，全国税收收入110933亿元，同比下降 0.3%；非税收入24906亿元，同比增长2%。1—7月印花税2559亿元，同比增长20.7%。其中，证券交易印花税936亿元，同比增 长62.5%。 2、人力资源社会保障部等5部门对外发布《关于领取个人养老金有关问题的通知》，进一步丰富个人养老金领取情形，明确具体操 作办法，自9月1日起开始实施。通知规定，新增3种个人养老金领取情形：①申请之日前12个月内，本人（或配偶、未成年子女）发 生的与基本医保相关的医药费用支出，扣除医保报销后个人负担（指医保目录范围内的自付部分）累计超过本省（自治区、直辖市） 上一年度居民人均可支配收入；②申请之日前2年内领取失业保险金累计达到12个月；③正在领取城乡最低生活保障金。 3、外交部发言人毛宁8月19日主持例行记者会。记者提问称，印度媒体报道称，中国已经解除了对印度的稀土出口限制。毛宁表 示，不了解提到的情况。中方愿意同有关国家和地区加强对话合作，共同维护全球产供链的稳定。 行 业 新 闻 1、 工业和信息化部等部门8月19日联合召开光伏 ...

反内卷政策在各行业的推进呈现显著分化特征。特别是在作为政策试点领域的光伏行业， 2024年 12月光伏头部企业曾签署自律公约承诺控产，但实际执行中因现金流压力普遍违约。行业集中度不 升反降，中小厂商通过低价抢单抢占市场，组件价格战导致全行业毛利率下降；钢铁行业则是在行政 指导的框架下推进产能置换，但地方保护主义导致执行偏差，中西部省份通过"地条钢 " 变相复产， 部分省份招标文件设置地域壁垒等方式阻碍产能出清，导致全国统一大市场建设受阻；汽车行业中新 能源车领域价格战白热化，头部企业通过技术迭代（如比亚迪刀片电池升级）和品牌服务增值（蔚来 换电站网络扩展）探索非价格竞争路径，但尾部企业仍在亏损边缘挣扎。 当前各行业呈现 "政策响应速度与市场化程度成反比"的特征。资本密集型行业（钢铁）对行政指令 敏感度高但转型空间受限，技术密集型行业（光伏、汽车）自主调节能力较强但受制于全球产业链竞 争。 当前反内卷遇到的难题 近年来，反内卷政策作为中国宏观经济调控的重要战略举措，正深刻重塑市场格局与产业生态。自 2024年重要会议首次提出"防止内卷式恶性竞争"以来，中央政策持续加码，2025年中央城市工作 会议更将"依法治理 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View of the Report - The current market liquidity remains abundant, with A-share trading volume exceeding 2 trillion, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high. Under the influence of internal and external positive factors, market sentiment is good, and stock index futures may continue to run strongly. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short-term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward movement. The market risk appetite is still high, and the gold price may be disturbed in the short term, but the probability of an interest rate cut in September is still high, providing support for the gold price, which is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term. The silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, but will be mainly based on fundamental logic in the medium term. The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September boosts the copper price, while the domestic copper downstream demand is weak, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly. The recent decline in the US dollar index, but the pressure on the downstream demand of aluminum, leads to the weak operation of the aluminum price. The production and inventory of alumina both increase, with a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea reduces the bauxite shipment volume, and considering the anti-involution market may continue, attention can be paid to the opportunity of laying out long positions in the far month. The zinc price is under great pressure due to the increase in inventory and the recovery of supply. Considering the potential risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, short selling should be cautious, and the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions can still be continuously concerned before the peak season. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remains stable, and the demand side performs generally. The nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading and wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions. In the long term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure. The macro-optimistic sentiment cools slightly. The price of raw material nickel iron rises steadily, the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly, and steel mills resume production one after another after profit repair. Attention should be paid to the actual production situation of steel mills. The stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, dominated by the macro situation. It is recommended to focus on short-term trading, wait for the opportunity of selling hedging at high positions, and pay attention to the opportunity of positive arbitrage between futures and spot. Fundamentally, tin is still in a situation of weak supply and demand. After a full correction, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price. The supply of industrial silicon in the southwest and northwest regions resumes, with great hedging pressure and strong market sentiment. The polysilicon has an expectation of capacity reduction in the long term, low terminal installation willingness, and considerable profits. The resource end of scrap steel is frequently disturbed, and the short-term replenishment volume of the downstream is large, with limited subsequent replenishment space. The cost of electric furnace valley electricity provides a short-term support range for rebar, and the upward driving force follows coal. The upward driving force of hot-rolled coil follows the cost support anchored by coal, and it is slightly stronger in the short term. The near-month iron ore is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity in the far month. The anti-involution in ferromanganese and ferrosilicon is long-term, and in the short term, it is mainly affected by macro positives, with prices showing a strong trend. The glass still has a weak reality but strong expectations, with a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The soda ash still has a weak reality, affected by supply disturbances and macro positives, also showing a pattern of near weakness and far strength. The high-level meeting mentioned "anti-involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the supply-side reform in 2015. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short term at the trading level, short positions on the market should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers should seize the opportunity of premium to establish positive arbitrage positions between futures and spot. The logic of coke is the same as that of coking coal, and the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium should be mainly grasped. The MPOB report is less bearish than expected, and the production in August may be affected by heavy rainfall, with a short-term positive expectation difference. Indonesia's official announcement of implementing B50 next year brings a long-term "strong expectation" for palm oil. The expected reduction in soybean arrivals, the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, and the opening of the export trade flow bring the expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, leading to a revaluation of soybean oil. The USDA's reduction of the new crop area in August and the Sino-US trade relationship lead to the firmness of the CBOT soybean price and the CNF premium of Brazilian soybean exports, supporting the upward movement of soybean oil from the raw material cost side. The reduction in the production of rapeseed in Russia and Ukraine and the less-than-expected increase in the production of sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region support the price of rapeseed oil in the new crushing season. The Ministry of Commerce's preliminary ruling that Canadian rapeseed is dumped will increase the customs duty deposit from August 14, bringing the expectation of a significant reduction in subsequent rapeseed supply. Cotton increases in positions and rises in the short term, dominated by the logic of a short squeeze in the near month. The height of the 01 contract is limited, and attention should be paid to the time window from the end of July to the beginning of August and the release of the sliding duty quota. White sugar runs strongly, with the bottom divergence rebound of raw sugar and the peak season demand, but the height is limited, and attention should be paid to the range fluctuation between 5600 - 6000. The supply and demand of old crops tend to be tight, but the pressure of warehouse receipts is large, and the expected rebound space of C09 is limited. Considering the expected selling pressure of new-season corn during the autumn harvest and the reduction in planting cost, a bearish view is maintained for the C11 and C01 contracts. The supply and demand balance sheet of new-season US soybeans is tight. Under the current Sino-US trade policy, the expectation of the Brazilian premium remains firm. Under the expectation of an increase in import cost, MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, but currently, the pressure on the domestic spot is still large, and the low basis restricts the increase of the futures price in the short term. Overall, the idea of buying on dips should be adopted. The external quotation of pulp is raised, with the price of Brazilian pulp increasing by $20 per ton in August, and the domestic inventory shows a reduction; but the recent decline in commodity futures is expected to lead to a volatile operation. The fundamentals of the log spot have improved recently, mainly reflected in the increase in the external quotation and the reduction of domestic port inventory; however, the delivery pressure in Chongqing restricts the motivation of log bulls to take delivery, and it is expected to fluctuate between 810 - 840 yuan/m³. The near-month contract of live pigs is dragged down by the spot and is relatively weak. The inventory will gradually recover in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the weight reduction and consumption situation. There are peak season expectations for the 11 and 01 contracts. The meeting between the US and Russia has not reached an agreement yet, but the progress is good; OPEC+ continues to increase production; the peak consumption season in Europe and the US has reached its peak, and there is a weakening trend later. The short-term supply and demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent, following crude oil; the cost disturbance and the recovery of demand balance each other, with limited fluctuations. The rainfall in the domestic rubber-producing areas causes disturbances, and the raw material cost provides strong support; the inventory reduction speed is slow; and the state reserve conducts a large amount of dumping. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the fundamental situation of synthetic rubber is severe, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand; BR runs stably in a consolidation phase, and attention should be paid to the inventory levels of butadiene and BR9000 and the autumn maintenance situation of butadiene rubber plants. The supply of PTA has shrunk, and the crude oil price has slightly declined. The downstream load of polyester has decreased to 88%. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased. The overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, the supply side has shrunk, and the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed, and there is no independent market in the market currently. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the fundamental situation of crude oil remains loose; the market expects a reduction in future arrivals. The supply of short fiber has shrunk, and the downstream load of polyester has decreased. The PTA port has a slight reduction in inventory, and the polyester replenishment willingness is not high. The coal price has slightly increased, and the overall performance of the commodity sentiment has slightly weakened. The maintenance of overseas ethylene glycol plants has been postponed, and the supply side has shrunk. The short fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, and the maintenance of short fiber factories has increased. Under the condition of a high basis, the cost of short fiber is closely followed. The price of pure benzene has slightly declined, the shipment of styrene is active, and the crude oil price has weakened. The operating load of styrene plants has recovered, and the basis of styrene has significantly weakened. The export sentiment has slightly eased, and the domestic demand is insufficient, with limited upward space; there is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. The macro sentiment is warm; there are many maintenance operations; the demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price fluctuates weakly. The maintenance support is limited; the orders are mainly for rigid needs; the macro situation is warm, and the futures price fluctuates strongly. The macro sentiment is warm; the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period; the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, with the futures price fluctuating strongly. The spot is about to enter the peak season; the spot price has fallen to a low level; the coking coal price has risen again, and the macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of crude oil is abundant, and the synthetic rubber market is severe, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid needs. PTA supply contracts, crude oil prices fall slightly, polyester downstream load drops to 88%, PTA port inventory decreases slightly, and polyester replenishment willingness is low. Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment weakens, overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance is postponed, and supply contracts. Short - fiber warehouse receipt registration is low, factory maintenance increases, and with a high basis, cost follows closely and there is no independent market. Pure benzene prices fall slightly, styrene shipments are active, crude oil prices weaken, styrene plant load recovers, and the basis weakens significantly. Urea export sentiment eases, domestic demand is insufficient with limited upside, but there is anti - involution and cost support below. Macro sentiment is warm, there are many maintenance operations, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and prices fluctuate weakly. Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, macro is warm, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Macro sentiment is warm, maintenance decreases, downstream enters the off - season, supply pressure increases, and futures prices fluctuate strongly. Spot is about to enter the peak season, spot prices are low, coking coal prices rise again, and macro sentiment is warm. OPEC+ continues to increase production, the supply of LPG is abundant, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand has a repair expectation; the warehouse receipts have reached a new high, and attention should be paid to the main contract delivery and the spread between September and October. The signal of the peak of the freight rate of the European container shipping line appears; the European ports are still congested; and there are many additional ships in August. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock index futures may continue to run strongly due to abundant market liquidity and positive factors [1] - Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are reminded [1] - Gold price may be disturbed in the short term but has support from the expected interest rate cut in September [1] - Silver price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term and follow fundamental logic in the medium term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper price may fluctuate strongly due to the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and weak domestic downstream demand [1] - Aluminum price runs weakly due to the pressure on downstream demand [1] - Alumina has a weak fundamental situation, but the rainy season in Guinea and the anti - involution market bring opportunities for long positions in the far month [1] - Zinc price is under pressure from inventory increase and supply recovery, and short - selling should be cautious [1] - Nickel price runs in a wide range in the short term, and attention should be paid to supply and macro changes [1] - Stainless steel futures run in a volatile manner in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [1] - Tin provides an opportunity of going long at a low price after a full correction [1] Black Metals - Rebar is supported by the cost of electric furnace valley electricity, and the upward driving force follows coal [1] - Hot - rolled coil is slightly stronger in the short term, and the upward driving force follows coal - anchored cost support [1] - Iron ore has an upward opportunity in the far month, although the near - month is restricted by production cuts [1] - Ferromanganese and ferrosilicon prices are expected to be strong due to long - term anti - involution and short - term macro positives [1] - Glass and soda ash show a pattern of near weakness and far strength [1] - Coke and coking coal: attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling hedging when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil has a short - term positive expectation difference and a long - term "strong expectation" [1] - Soybean oil is re - valued due to the expected inventory reduction in the fourth quarter and cost support [1] - Rapeseed oil is supported by production reduction and supply reduction expectations [1] - Cotton is affected by the short - squeeze logic in the near month, and attention should be paid to the time window and quota release [1] - White sugar runs strongly but with limited height [1] - Corn: C09 has limited rebound space, and C11 and C01 are bearish [1] - Soybean: MO1 is expected to fluctuate strongly, and a dip - buying strategy is recommended [1] - Pulp is expected to fluctuate due to price increase and inventory reduction [1] - Log is expected to fluctuate within a certain range due to improved fundamentals and delivery pressure [1] - Live pigs' near - month contracts are weak, and there are peak - season expectations for 11 and 01 contracts [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and its related products (fuel oil, LPG) are affected by OPEC+ production increase and market demand trends [1] - Rubber (natural rubber, BR rubber) is affected by factors such as rainfall, inventory, and supply - demand fundamentals [1] - PTA, short - fiber, and other chemical products are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [1] - Urea has limited upward space due to export and demand, but has support below [1] Other - The freight rate of the European container shipping line may peak, with congested ports and additional ships [1]

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-08-19 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1358 162 | -28 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -12 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1196 1428848 | -16 29928 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1196462 | 81442 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -379993 | -18741 | | 期货市场 | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -282724 | -18540 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 10192 | 0 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2438 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -113 | 1 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -176 | 6 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | -106 | 9 | | | 玻璃基差 | -112 | 16 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/吨) | 1280 | 0 华中重 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年08月19日 [table_invest] 标配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 吴骏燕 S0630517120001 wjyan@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -18% -6% 6% 18% 30% 42% 53% 24-08 24-11 25-02 25-05 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.欧美进口需求前置，国内市场维稳 ——轮胎市场月报 2.制冷剂价格再度提升，行业有望持 续高景气——氟化工行业月报 3.农药"一证一品"政策落地，头部 企业有望受益——基础化工行业周 报（2025/8/4-2025/8/10） [Table_NewTitle 首届世界人形机器人运动会于北京召 ] 开，关注机器人产业化进程 ——基础化工行业周报（2025/8/11-2025/8/17） [table_main] 投资要点： 基 础 证券研究报告 HTTP://W ...

行业报告 | 行业专题研究 建筑材料 证券研究报告 水泥行业反内卷—过去，现在和未来 当前水泥反内卷必要性仍然存在，集中度与企业所有制结构占优 水泥呈现央企主导，集中度较高的竞争格局，24 年行业 CR10/CR5/CR2 产 能集中度分别达到 57%/44%/31%，从企业所有制结构来看，24 年水泥行业央 国企产能占比预计在 45%左右，前十大水泥企业中央国企占据前四家，这使 得水泥行业的反内卷在协同动力与方式上占优。从行业效益来看，24 年最 差时期企业亏损面超过 55%，四季度有明显好转，25 年上半年水泥行业实 现利润总额 150-160 亿元，实现扭亏为盈（去年同期亏损 11 亿元），但二 季度以来，水泥价格呈现持续下降趋势，截至 8 月初，全国水泥均价同比低 43.7 元/吨，从水煤价格表征的盈利水平来看，基本再次回到去年前三季度 的最差阶段，因此在当前时点，水泥行业"反内卷"的必要性仍然存在。 上轮供给侧改革：通过"去产量"实现"去产能"，行业效益明显回升 在上一轮供给侧改革过程中，水泥行业采取的主要措施包括严禁新增产能、 全国大范围推行错峰生产以及推动行业兼并重组。16 年国办发〔2016〕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are prominent opportunities in credit bonds [1][107]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Historically, inflation, overheating or recovery of the economy, and tightening of monetary policy are the main reasons for the significant bearish trend in the bond market. Currently, the probability of a significant bearish trend in the bond market is low. The bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 years [1]. - The signals before the inflection point of the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market are weakening. In the future, nominal GDP growth rate, PPI year - on - year growth rate, and institutional behavior (regulatory policies) may be key indicators and signals. CPI recovery is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition [1][92]. - The current bond market does not have the conditions for a significant bearish trend. The reasons include the low probability of significant tightening of monetary policy this year, weak economic repair momentum, a loose capital situation, uncertain effects of anti - involution policies, and limited external negative pressure on the bond market [1][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Characteristics of Past Bond Bear Markets - **2007 - 2008**: Due to overheating of the economy and high inflation pressure, the central bank continuously raised interest rates, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3% to 4.5%. After the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the policy turned to easing [5]. - **2010 - 2011**: After the "Four - Trillion" stimulus plan, inflation pressure climbed again. The central bank implemented tightening policies, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.2% to 4.1% [8]. - **2013**: Due to the "Money Shortage" and financial supervision, there was a liquidity crisis. The central bank tightened liquidity, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.4% to 4.6% [9][10]. - **2016 - 2017**: With strong financial supervision, supply - side reform, and shantytown renovation monetization, the central bank tightened monetary policy, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.7% to 3.9% [11]. - **2020**: After the public health event, the economy recovered, and the policy gradually returned to normal. The 10 - year Treasury yield started to rise in late April [15]. - **2022**: The end of the public health event increased the market's expectation of economic recovery, and there was a negative feedback from bank wealth management. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.6% to 2.9% [19][21]. - **Common Characteristics**: Policy drive (tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of financial supervision), economic cycle correlation (the bond market is prone to a bearish trend when the macro - economy is improving and inflation is rising), and capital trends (capital is the link between policy and the market) [22][23][24]. 3.2. Inflection Points of Past Bull - to - Bear Transitions in the Bond Market - **2007 - 2008**: The inflection point occurred on January 17, 2007. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the fundamentals improved significantly, and inflation pressure increased [24][27][28]. - **2010 - 2011**: The inflection point occurred on July 14, 2010. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the economy recovered rapidly, and CPI and PPI had been rising [36][38][40]. - **2013**: The inflection point occurred on April 16, 2013. Before the inflection point, there was a sign of capital tightening, the economy showed a co - existence of recovery and inflation pressure, and the central bank tightened liquidity [45][49][50]. - **2016 - 2017**: The inflection point occurred on October 21, 2016. Before the inflection point, there was no obvious sign of capital tightening, the economy was relatively stable, CPI was not obvious, and PPI rose significantly [53][57][60]. - **2020**: The inflection point occurred on April 8, 2020. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy recovered simultaneously with the bearish trend, CPI was not obvious, and PPI was more obvious [63][66][67]. - **2022**: The inflection point occurred in August 2022. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy had a pre - recovery trend, and CPI and PPI were not obvious [74][77][78]. 3.3. Reasons Why the Current Bond Market is Unlikely to Go Significantly Bearish - **Past Bull - to - Bear Inflection Point Signals**: Fundamental inflection points (leading or synchronous with the bull - to - bear inflection point), policy inflection points (monetary policy tightening), CPI or PPI recovery (PPI bottoming out 6 - 12 months before the bearish trend), and capital inflection points (yield bottom lags behind the capital bottom by an average of 2.5 months). In the future, these signals are weakening [83][85][87]. - **CPI Recovery is Neither Sufficient nor Necessary**: CPI recovery is not a sufficient or necessary condition for the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market. Cost - push inflation has limited impact on the bond market trend [95][96]. - **Current Situation Analysis**: The monetary policy is unlikely to tighten significantly this year. The economic repair momentum is weak, with low nominal GDP growth, negative GDP deflator, and declining PPI. The capital situation is loose, the "anti - involution" policy effect is uncertain, and the external environment has limited negative pressure on the bond market [97][100][105]. 3.4. Investment Analysis Opinions - In the short - term, the report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are opportunities in credit bonds, such as long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt. It is recommended to focus on the long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng banks, and be bullish on urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Pay attention to the capital bonds of Beibu Gulf Bank, Tianjin Bank, and China Property Insurance [106][107].