摘要 有色金属周报-工业硅&多晶硅 基本面偏弱，上方承压 2025年11月25日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 | | 工业硅 | | 多晶硅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 成本&利润：硅煤价格略有上涨，硅石、电极价格持稳；随着 |  | 供给端：上周周产27,100吨，环比提升。11月排产来看，川 | | | 西南产区步入平枯水期，电力成本显著抬升。 | | 滇地区厂家有检修减产安排，内蒙古地区则有部分增量， | |  | 供给端：四川地区月末进入枯水期，开工持续下调，云南地区 | | 增减相抵后，预计11月产量降至12万吨左右。 | | | 开工已处于绝对低位，已停产企业暂无资金压力，低于心理价 |  | 需求端：上半年终端装机抢装透支部分下半年需求，国内 | | | 位暂无出货意愿；西北地区开工大稳小动，产量稳中有增；其 | | 招投标项目减少，加之海外需求退坡，组件端压力较大， | | | 他地区开工暂无明显变动。供给端整体呈现缩量趋势，预计11 | | 后续若国内需 ...

| | | 本周沪铜主力合约继续呈现高位震荡格局，宏观对于铜价的扰动整体上有所减弱，但地缘冲突继续带来不稳定因素。中国外交部要求在刚 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 果（金）东部地区驻留的中国公民和企业应立即撤离该地区，目前刚果（金）安全形势复杂严峻，对矿区的影响需保持关注。基本面上， | | | | 高位震荡调整 | 近期市场消费有好转势头，市场交易较10月整体有所提升，社会库存近期有所回落。近期市场目光开始向矿长单谈判聚焦，另外自由港麦 | 观望 | | 铜 | 85000-88000 | 克莫兰计划于2026年二季度恢复印尼Grasberg矿区大规模生产，目前已重启两座未受灾害影响的地下矿山，这有望缓解矿端供应的焦虑情 | 或轻仓区间交易 | | | | 绪。铜长期需求前景依然乐观，人工智能、AI算力、绿色能源等行业发展对铜消耗存在高预期，铜价上涨潜力依然较大，但短期需警惕高 | | | | | 铜价对消费的抑制作用以及美联储政策预期变化带来的压力。短期内铜价高位运行的状态不改，沪铜主力运行区间或继续维持在85000- | | | | | 88000一线，建议观望 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 12, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed trends. IF fell 0.03%, IH rose 0.38%, IC fell 0.37%, and IM fell 0.38% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has increased. The total trading volume and total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is also 1 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data - **Prices and Fluctuations**: The closing prices of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4645.91, 3044.3, 7243.25, and 7486.38 respectively, with fluctuations of - 0.13%, + 0.32%, - 0.66%, and - 0.72%. The prices of their corresponding futures contracts also showed different fluctuations [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 10290 lots, 3933 lots, 33145 lots, and 57813 lots respectively. The total open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 10237 lots, 2738 lots, 21807 lots, and 22747 lots respectively [1][2]. - **Basis**: The basis of each futures contract is different. For example, the basis of IF2511 is - 0.91, and the basis of IH2511 is 2.5 [1]. 3.2 Top 20 Member Open Interest Changes - The open interest of long and short positions of each futures contract has different changes. For example, the long - position net change of IF2511 is 1564, and the short - position net change is 8653 [5]. 3.3 Market News - Technology stocks declined again, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose for four consecutive days to a new high, AMD rose 9%, gold rose for four consecutive days, and crude oil tumbled. The U.S. dollar fell 0.3% from its daily high, Bitcoin had a reverse trend, gold rose 1.7% intraday, and U.S. oil tumbled more than 4.2% [7]. - Vice - Premier He Lifeng met with relevant American representatives, emphasizing the broad cooperation space in Sino - US economic and trade fields [7]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange International Investors Conference was officially opened. Relevant leaders of the CSRC and the Shanghai Stock Exchange made statements on deepening reforms and optimizing systems [7][8]. - The A - share market fluctuated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 4000.14 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.39%. The trading volume of A - shares was 1.96 trillion yuan, lower than the previous day's 2.01 trillion yuan [8].

A股三大股指11月12日集体低开。盘初三大股指强劲翻红，但此后重返跌势。午后创出日内新低后出现 抄底盘，尾盘出现拉升带动沪指一度转涨。 从盘面上看，光伏产业链、核聚变概念跌幅居前，培育钻石、超硬材料显著回调。保险、制药、银行板 块走强，农业银行、工商银行双双创新高，农行市值突破3万亿元。 Wind统计显示，两市及北交所共1756只股票上涨，3561只股票下跌，平盘有126只股票。 沪深两市成交总额19451亿元，较前一交易日的19936亿元减少485亿元。其中，沪市成交8405亿元，比 上一交易日8584亿元减少179亿元，深市成交11046亿元。 两市及北交所共有7只股票涨幅在9%以上，18只股票跌幅在9%以上。 至收盘，上证综指跌0.07%，报4000.14点；科创50指数跌0.58%，报1379.45点；深证成指跌0.36%，报 13240.62点；创业板指跌0.39%，报3122.03点。 ...

Market Overview - The photovoltaic industry chain and nuclear fusion concepts experienced significant declines, while cultivated diamonds and superhard materials showed notable corrections [1] - The insurance, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors strengthened, with Agricultural Bank of China and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China both reaching new highs [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.95 trillion, a decrease of 48.6 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,500 stocks declining [1][4] Capital Flow - Main capital flows showed a net inflow into the pharmaceutical, banking, and non-ferrous metal sectors, while there was a net outflow from power grid equipment, communications, and computing sectors [3] - Specific stocks with net inflows included Luxshare Precision (964 million), CATL (838 million), and Shannon Chip (732 million) [3] - Stocks facing net outflows included LONGi Green Energy (1.927 billion), Sungrow Power Supply (1.426 billion), and TBEA (1.095 billion) [3] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Securities indicated that the A-share market is in the early stages of a new bull market driven by policy and industry trends [3] - Yingda Securities noted that the market is consolidating around the 4,000-point level, which is beneficial for solidifying the market foundation for future trends [5] - Galaxy Securities expressed continued optimism for the computing power sector, highlighting its performance realization phase and relatively moderate valuation levels, particularly in PCB, domestic computing power, IP licensing, and chip inductors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese stock market showed positive performance with significant increases in major indices, while certain sectors experienced declines and others saw strong gains [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4016.33 points, up by 0.70%, with a trading volume of 968.216 billion [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13691.38 points, up by 1.95%, with a trading volume of 1287.814 billion [1] - The ChiNext Index closed at 3324.27 points, up by 2.93%, with a trading volume of 616.646 billion [1] Sector Analysis - Banking and liquor sectors experienced declines [1] - The non-ferrous metals sector showed strong gains [1] - Other sectors such as brokerage, coal, insurance, electricity, and oil also saw upward movements [1] - The photovoltaic industry chain stocks surged, while lithium mines, solid-state batteries, and rare earth concepts were active [1]

Core Viewpoint - Tongwei Co., Ltd. reported a significant reduction in losses for the third quarter, indicating a potential turning point in profitability as the solar industry shows signs of recovery [1] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of -5.27 billion yuan, with a third-quarter net profit of -315 million yuan, marking a 62.69% reduction in losses [1] - The third-quarter loss represents the lowest quarterly loss since Q4 2023, with a sequential reduction in losses of 86.68% compared to the second quarter [1] Market Dynamics - The price of polysilicon has rebounded significantly, with the average price of N-type re-investment materials rising from 34,700 yuan per ton in early July to 53,200 yuan per ton by late September, reflecting a 53.3% increase [1] - The solar industry is experiencing improvements across various segments, driven by policies aimed at rationalizing prices and reducing internal competition [1] Competitive Position - As a leading player in the entire solar industry chain, the company benefits from cost advantages, technological barriers, and resilient cash flow, which enhance its ability to withstand risks during the industry's consolidation phase [1] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with an optimistic outlook for future performance, maintaining an "overweight" rating [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon prices rose by 1.66%, while polysilicon prices fell by 3.71%. The industrial silicon futures market showed an upward trend due to increased expectations of production cuts during the dry season, while polysilicon prices declined as the market sentiment subsided [4]. - Looking ahead, in the industrial silicon market, supply will see a combination of production cuts in the southwest and increased production in the northwest next week. Demand from polysilicon is highly uncertain, while that from organosilicon and aluminum alloy remains relatively stable. Cost provides support for prices, but high inventory restricts upward price movement. In the polysilicon market, supply will face rising production costs as the dry season approaches in the southwest, and demand remains weak overall, although emerging markets offer some buffer. Policy rumors have boosted market confidence, but the details and implementation time are unclear [4]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon oscillates within the range of 8400 - 8600 yuan, with a stop - loss range of 8200 - 8800 yuan. The main contract of polysilicon will oscillate in the short term, within the range of 48000 - 53000 yuan, with a stop - loss range of 46000 - 55000 yuan [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon prices increased by 1.66% this week, and polysilicon prices decreased by 3.71%. The industrial silicon futures market trended upward due to dry - season production cut expectations, while polysilicon prices declined as market sentiment faded [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply will see production cuts in Sichuan and Yunnan during the dry - season transition, while Xinjiang will increase production. Demand from organosilicon has some support, but polysilicon demand may weaken, and aluminum alloy demand is stable but has limited price - pulling power [4]. - **Polysilicon**: Supply will face rising costs in the southwest during the dry season, and demand is weak in the photovoltaic industry. Although emerging markets offer some support, European high inventory and uncertain policies add to market uncertainty [4]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be traded within the range of 8400 - 8600 yuan, with a stop - loss range of 8200 - 8800 yuan. The main contract of polysilicon should be traded within the range of 48000 - 53000 yuan, with a stop - loss range of 46000 - 55000 yuan [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price increased this week, while the spot price remained flat, and the basis decreased. As of October 23, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis was 645 yuan/ton [10][12]. - **Polysilicon**: Both the futures and spot prices increased this week, and the basis strengthened. As of October 23, 2025, the spot price was 52.98 yuan/kg, up 230 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 2220 yuan/g [14][16]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Raw Materials and Costs**: Raw material prices remained stable this week. Electricity prices are expected to rise near the dry season, increasing costs, but electricity prices in the northwest are stable [21][24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased. As of October 23, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 48371 lots, a decrease of 1986 lots from the previous period [26][28]. - **Downstream Industries**: - **Organosilicon**: Production and operating rates increased this week. As of October 23, 2025, the weekly production was 4.6 tons, an increase of 0.88%, and the operating rate was 70.05%, an increase of 0.55%. Costs stabilized, spot prices and profits increased, and future production is expected to remain flat [30][35][39]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Spot prices and inventory increased. As of October 23, 2025, the price was 21000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 7.53 tons, up 0.09 tons from last week. Demand for industrial silicon is expected to stabilize [41][47]. - **Polysilicon**: - **Downstream Products**: Silicon wafer prices remained flat, and battery cell prices weakened. As of October 23, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.48 yuan/piece, unchanged from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.30 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/watt from last week. This is expected to have a negative impact on polysilicon demand [49][51]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: Affected by industrial silicon, polysilicon costs decreased, profits increased, and inventory increased. As of October 23, 2025, the profit was 11080 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40672 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 27.84 tons [56][61].

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,913.76, down 0.07% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12,996.61, down 0.62%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.79% to 3,059.32 [2] Coal Industry Analysis - In Q3 2025, the coal market experienced a rebound in prices, leading to improved profitability for the industry, although the average duration of coal debts reached new highs, raising concerns about the sustainability of this recovery [4][6] - The strategic restructuring between Pingmei Shenma Group and Henan Energy Group is expected to enhance asset scale and coal production capacity, benefiting existing debts, particularly for Henan Energy [6] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The revised Corporate Governance Code aims to enhance the governance of listed companies by regulating the behavior of directors, executives, and major shareholders, promoting better alignment of interests [5] - The number of newly opened margin trading accounts reached a record high of 205,400 in September 2025, reflecting a significant recovery in investor confidence and market sentiment [10] Photovoltaic Industry Insights - Prices for photovoltaic components remained stable, with N-type battery prices showing slight declines, while polysilicon prices experienced structural increases [9][11][12] - The overall production plan for October indicates a tightening in output, with a shift towards high-efficiency production technologies [11] - Recommendations for investment focus on companies involved in new technologies, supply-side improvements, and overseas expansions, highlighting a diverse range of potential investment opportunities [12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing fluctuations, with the ChiNext index dropping over 2% and the STAR 50 index nearly 3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index shows a slight increase of 0.21% [1] Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3897.56 points, the Shenzhen Component Index has decreased by 1.02%, the ChiNext index has fallen by 2.24%, and the STAR 50 index has dropped by 2.84% [1] - The total trading volume across the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and North markets reached 1.6817 trillion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor sector is declining, while sectors such as insurance, coal, liquor, banking, oil, and real estate are seeing gains [1] - Gold concept stocks and the photovoltaic industry chain stocks are also active [1] Investment Strategy - Dongxing Securities indicates that the mid-term core trend of the A-share market remains unchanged, with limited impact from short-term external shocks [1] - The market is expected to maintain an upward trend as it consolidates around the 4000-point mark, with liquidity and the development of high-tech industries being the two core logical drivers [1] - The recommendation is to maintain confidence in the bull market and continue to favor the mid-term upward trend [1] Sector Allocation - The core position of the large technology sector is expected to remain stable, although short-term U.S.-China tensions may cause some disturbances for technology companies involved in overseas assets and supply chains [1] - Investors are advised to increase allocation to self-controlled sectors [1] - The cyclical sectors are still showing good prosperity and are suggested as one of the two core allocation lines, with a focus on military, pharmaceutical, and new energy industries [1] - High dividend yield stocks have become more attractive following a round of adjustments, making them a focus for conservative investors [1]