平煤神马集团与河南能源集团重组利好存量债项。2025年9月25日，平煤股份接到控股 股东中国平煤神马控股集团有限公司的通知，河南省委、省政府决定对河南能源集团有限公 司和中国平煤神马控股集团有限公司实施战略重组。平煤神马集团和河南能源集团均为河南 省属煤炭企业，债务负担较重，考虑前期河南信用环境变化，双方债务接续较为依赖煤炭景 气度变化。2025年以来双方盈利均出现大幅下滑，存在潜在风险。双方重组后，预计平煤神 马集团将大幅提升资产体量和煤炭产销量，规模优势有所增强。考虑到河南能源集团债务负 担相对更重，重组后平煤神马资产负债率或有所上升，预计本次重组相对更利好河南能源相 关债项。但整体来说，新主体无论在煤炭行业还是河南省的地位均有显著提升，同时双方均 有较大规模的化工等非煤业务，在减少同业竞争的同时也可提升上下游业务协同，风险抵御 能力也有望改善，因此重组利好双方存量债，值得挖掘。 山西证券近日发布2025年三季度煤炭债复盘：三季度煤炭市场受益反内卷价格反弹，行 业盈利能力回升，前期市场悲观预期有所缓和，后续煤企获现能力改善的情况值得跟踪。但 考虑煤炭债平均久期不断创新高和基本面改善持续性存疑，市场对煤炭信 ...

研究早观点 2025 年 10 月 23 日 星期四 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 3,913.76 | -0.07 | | 深证成指 | | 12,996.61 | -0.62 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,592.57 | -0.33 | | 中小板指 | | 7,984.75 | -0.67 | | 创业板指 | | 3,059.32 | -0.79 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,405.41 | -0.06 | | 资料来源：最闻 | | | | 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 国内市场主要指数 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【行业评论】煤炭：2025 年三季度煤炭债复盘-平均期限继续创新高， 平煤神马重组利好存量债项 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 【今日要点】 【行业评论】煤炭：2025 年三季度煤炭债复盘-平均期限继续创新高，平煤神马重组利好存量债项 胡博 hubo1@ ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the credit bond market is experiencing a divergence in trends, with most credit bond yields rising and credit spreads showing mixed performance, particularly in the short-end segment [10][21] - It is suggested to focus on the 2-3 year credit bonds for yield opportunities, as their spreads are higher than the lowest points in 2024 and lower than the average spread since 2024, indicating potential for value [12][21] - The report highlights that the financial bonds have shown some recovery after significant adjustments, but the sentiment remains cautious with limited room for bullish positions [10][21] Group 2 - Key policies include the announcement of a loan from Shenzhen Metro Group to Vanke for debt repayment, totaling up to 2.064 billion yuan, with cumulative loans since 2025 reaching 25.941 billion yuan [3][14] - The Ministry of Finance reported that from January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1.48198 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, with tax revenue slightly up by 0.02% [15][20] - The central bank is guiding commercial banks to provide loans to state-owned enterprises and financing platforms to settle overdue accounts, with a total debt scale of approximately 1.8 trillion yuan [4][16] Group 3 - The report notes that the secondary market for credit bonds is active, with a significant increase in trading volume observed [21] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the context of the upcoming policy changes and market conditions [10][21] - The report also mentions that the Shanghai Stock Exchange has optimized the bond repurchase business to stabilize market prices, which may lead to a narrowing of spreads for lower-rated bonds [4][13]

煤炭 2025 年二季度煤炭债复盘 同步大市-A(维持) 平稳接续，久期继续拉升 【山证煤炭】煤炭月度供需数据点评 6 月："反内卷"改变政策方向，夏季煤价 反弹 2025.7.17 【山证煤炭】盈利能力尚可，红利价值 仍有交易空间-【山证煤炭】煤炭行业 2024 年 报 及 2025 年 一 季 报 综 述 ： 2025.7.5 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 首选股票 评级 二季度煤价淡季特征，关注久期控制。二季度煤炭市场淡季特 征明显，行业盈利能力继续下降，部分尾部主体出现内部亏损 面较大和亏现金流等现象，建议提高对煤企获现能力的观察。 考虑过去几年煤炭企业的盈利累积，我们认为短期风险仍然可 控，市场尚未重点交易煤炭利差。但考虑煤炭债平均久期不断 创新高和基本面不断弱化，市场对煤炭信用品的认可程度或有 所变化，未来不排除机构增加控久期行为。 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 2025 年 7 月 25 日 行业研究/行业分析 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 投资要点： 相关报告： "信用捆绑"仍坚固，"高息债务置换"和"资源 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The bond market fluctuated weakly this week due to multiple negative disturbances such as regulatory guidance on rural commercial bank bond investment and the supply of real estate and ultra - long - term bonds. The adjustment range of credit bonds was smaller than that of interest - rate bonds, and the spreads were mostly passively narrowed. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon individual bonds after the stock - bond seesaw effect, which helps to further narrow the credit spreads. It is advisable to allocate high - coupon varieties on rallies, and pay attention to the right - hand opportunities for long - term credit bonds after the market stabilizes [2][5]. - For institutions with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds. For institutions with strong liability - side stability, take advantage of stable liabilities to extend the duration and actively allocate long - term varieties [2][14]. - When considering taking profits on long - term credit bonds, pay attention to three time points: when funds continue to net buy but credit spreads do not further compress significantly; when the net buying power of funds weakens or turns to small net selling; and using 10 - 15BP above the lowest spread last year as a reference line [5][13]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog I. Bond Market Review and Credit Strategy Outlook - This week, the equity market sentiment was strong, and the stock - bond seesaw effect continued. The bond market fluctuated weakly. Most credit bond yields rose, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. The 3y - and - below short - end spreads of most varieties were compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term varieties still had some room [5][9][12]. - Looking forward, with the current fundamental pattern unchanged significantly and the second - quarter economic data being relatively strong, the risk of a trend reversal in the bond market is controllable. Institutions may continue to explore high - coupon bonds, and if the adjustment continues next week, it may bring better layout opportunities [5][13]. II. Key Policies and Hot Events - Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. announced adjustments to the principal and interest repayment arrangements of 21 bonds, indicating that the debt restructuring of real - estate enterprises is accelerating and risk clearing is speeding up [2][16]. - Gansu Province established a 10 - billion - yuan provincial emergency working capital pool, with 2 billion yuan from provincial finance and 8 billion yuan from bank supporting financing, to support key enterprises in repaying due debts and effectively alleviate debt risks [2][3][16]. - The central bank and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced three opening - up optimization measures at the "Bond Connect Anniversary Forum 2025", which may bring new investment opportunities for Chinese overseas bonds traded in the Hong Kong market [2][3][17]. - Ten science - innovation bond ETFs completed their issuance, raising a total of 28.988 billion yuan, with subscriptions being extremely popular. Attention should be paid to the subsequent scale expansion [3][17]. III. Secondary Market - Credit bond yields generally rose this week, and spreads were mostly passively narrowed. In terms of different varieties: - For urban investment bonds, yields generally rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. Attention can be paid to the income - mining opportunities of high - coupon urban investment bonds within 3y and extend the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties [20]. - For real - estate bonds, low - grade varieties were relatively weak. Currently, real - estate bond yields are still attractive, and attention can be paid to 1 - 2y central and state - owned enterprise real - estate AA and above varieties [21]. - For cyclical bonds, coal and steel bond yields mostly rose, and spreads mostly narrowed. For coal bonds, appropriate credit - risk exposure can be taken for short - end varieties, and the duration of medium - and high - grade varieties can be extended to 3y. For steel bonds, consider short - duration AA + implicit - rated varieties [21]. - For financial bonds, bank perpetual and secondary capital bonds generally underperformed, with yields rising and spreads mostly narrowing. Brokerage sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds also had yield increases and spread narrowing [22]. IV. Primary Market - This week, the credit bond issuance scale was 287.4 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 66.8 billion yuan, and the net financing was 88.3 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 47.8 billion yuan. The urban investment bond issuance scale was 102.3 billion yuan, an increase of 39.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 26 billion yuan, an increase of 174 billion yuan [6]. V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity of credit bonds in the inter - bank market decreased, while that in the exchange market increased [6]. VI. Rating Adjustments - This week, 1 entity's rating was downgraded, and 6 entities' ratings were upgraded [6].

Group 1 - The report indicates that since late May, the long-term credit bond market has seen significant net buying activity, reflecting high market participation enthusiasm [1][9] - The long-term credit bond market began to show independent trends in both last year and this year under extreme conditions of short-term yield compression, leading to a focus on duration for yield [9][12] - The report highlights that the current long-term credit bond market is influenced by the "stock-bond" effect, with institutions being cautious and focusing on profit-taking points [1][9] Group 2 - For the 5-7 year medium-term bonds, institutional net buying has significantly increased since late May, with peak net buying volumes reaching around 3.5 billion [2][14] - In the 7-10 year medium-term bonds, the fluctuation of fund net buying is a crucial factor affecting credit spreads, with insurance companies showing stronger net buying compared to last year [2][17] - For bonds over 10 years, the participation of funds has been limited this year, with the main buying force coming from insurance and other product categories, resulting in weaker effects on credit spread compression [2][18] Group 3 - The report states that the compression of credit spreads has reached an extreme level for short-term bonds (3 years and under), while there is still some room for long-term bonds (5 years and above) [3][23] - The report suggests that if funds continue to buy long-term credit bonds significantly, it could further compress spreads; otherwise, the compression potential may be limited [3][23] - The report identifies three key points for profit-taking in long-term credit bonds, including observing fund buying trends and credit spread movements [3][9] Group 4 - The report recommends that institutions with weaker liability stability should focus on 2-3 year low-grade bonds and 4-5 year high-yield bonds, while those with stronger stability should actively allocate long-term bonds [4][9] - The yield range for 7-year AA+ rated bonds and 10-15 year AA+ rated bonds is noted to be between 2.07% and 2.39%, indicating potential for yield exploration [4][9]

Group 1: Impact of Deposit Rate Cuts on Credit Bonds - The impact of deposit rate cuts on credit bond performance varies; if the cuts lead to a decline in policy rates, credit spreads typically widen, while if they precede rate cuts, spreads may narrow [1][9][10] - Historical analysis shows that after deposit rate cuts, the net buying power for credit bonds from funds and insurance is usually limited, indicating a weak immediate impact [1][15][9] - The short-term influence of deposit rate cuts on credit spreads is primarily driven by market sentiment and conditions rather than direct attribution to the event [1][15][9] Group 2: June Credit Bond Strategy - In June, the demand for credit bonds may weaken marginally, and the momentum for spread narrowing is expected to slow down due to seasonal trends [1][25][28] - The market is anticipated to remain volatile, with institutions focusing on high-yield bonds to potentially drive structural narrowing in credit spreads, although a trend compression is unlikely [1][25][28] - The liquidity environment is expected to be stable, with the central bank showing a strong willingness to support liquidity, which may help mitigate risks of significant capital outflows [1][28][26] Group 3: Sector-Specific Strategies - For urban investment bonds, focus on low-grade bonds within 3 years and medium to high-grade bonds in the 4-5 year range, particularly in regions with strong financial capabilities [2][3] - In the real estate sector, attention should be on AA-rated bonds from central and state-owned enterprises with maturities of 1-2 years, as lower-grade real estate bonds have shown significant spread compression [2][3] - For cyclical bonds, particularly coal and steel, a cautious approach is recommended, with a focus on high-grade issuers to avoid tail risks associated with declining market conditions [2][3]

煤炭 2025 年一季度煤炭债复盘 同步大市-A(维持) 平均期限创新高，市场尚未交易煤炭利差 2025 年 5 月 22 日 行业研究/行业分析 投资要点： 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 【山证煤炭】关税博弈落地，煤炭重回 供 需 逻 辑 - 【 山 证 煤 炭 】 行 业 周 报 （20250512-20250518）： 2025.5.19 【山证煤炭】外需预期主导波动，关注 迎峰度夏需求改善-【山证煤炭】行业周 报（20250505-20250511）： 2025.5.12 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 刘贵军 执业登记编码：S0760519110001 邮箱：liuguijun@sxzq.com 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 相关报告： 一季度煤价偏弱运行，关注煤炭债交易流动性变化。一季度供 需偏弱，除进口煤偏多之外，需求端表现也相对疲软。随着煤 炭价格连续破位以及行业协会倡议书、平煤集团集体大幅降薪 和晋控集团去库存文件等信号，市场对于煤炭行业的预期已经 发生实质性转变。考虑过去几年煤炭企业的盈利累积，短期风 险可控，因 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current bond market, short - term credit bond yield decline and spread narrowing space are limited. Traders can wait for a better position after market adjustment to participate in the game, and currently focus on certain coupon opportunities and consider allocation from the perspective of absolute yield [3][27] - Different investment strategies should be adopted according to the stability of the liability side. For those with weak liability - side stability, focus on 2 - 3y medium - and low - grade varieties and some 4 - 5y high - coupon, medium - quality individual bonds; for those with strong liability - side stability, allocate 4 - 5y varieties [3][4][27] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. How to Allocate Credit Bonds after a Significant Narrowing of Spreads (1) Credit Bond Market Review - This week, the capital price was low at first and then high. The Sino - US economic and trade joint statement significantly reduced bilateral tax rates, boosting risk appetite. Under the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market was under pressure. Interest - rate bond yields rose across the board, while credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend and performed better than interest - rate bonds. Bank secondary and perpetual bonds with significantly narrowed spreads performed weakly, with yields rising slightly and spreads narrowing passively. The yields of other credit varieties generally declined for 1 - 4y and rose for 5 - 15y, with spreads narrowing significantly for 1 - 4y and passively narrowing for 5 - 15y, with a smaller narrowing amplitude at the long end [1][11] (2) Credit Strategy: Focus on Certain Coupon Opportunities - **Current Credit Spread Level**: 1 - 2y variety spreads have been compressed to an extreme level, while the medium - and long - term spreads still have some room compared to last year's lowest point. In a volatile bond market environment, the further compression space of credit spreads may be relatively limited [14][24] - **Current Credit Bond Yield Level**: Currently, the yields of various credit varieties can generally achieve positive carry. Different varieties have different yield levels compared to R007 [25] II. Key Policies and Hot Events - On May 15th, the General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which mentioned improving diversified investment and financing methods and encouraging financial institutions to participate in urban renewal [33] - On May 15th, Vanke announced that its major shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, would provide a loan of up to 1.552 billion yuan to the company to repay the principal and interest of bonds issued in the public market [33] - On May 13th, seven departments jointly issued policies to include high - quality enterprise science and technology innovation bonds in the benchmark market - making varieties to improve their liquidity [34] III. Secondary Market - This week, credit bond yields showed a differentiated trend, and credit spreads generally narrowed. Different types of bonds, such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, had different yield and spread changes [36][37] IV. Primary Market - This week, the issuance scale of credit bonds was 122.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.5 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 15.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.7 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The issuance scale of urban investment bonds was 30.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.9 billion yuan compared to the previous week, and the net financing amount was - 24.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] V. Trading Liquidity - This week, the trading activity in the inter - bank market and the exchange market of credit bonds increased. The trading volume in the inter - bank market increased from 432 billion yuan last week to 550.1 billion yuan, and the trading volume in the exchange market increased from 234.1 billion yuan last week to 336.2 billion yuan [6] VI. Rating Adjustment - This week, there were 2 entities with downgraded ratings and 3 entities with upgraded ratings [6]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of fundamental research on issuers in a weak economic environment, highlighting the recent incident involving China Aviation Industry Corporation as a case in point [1][15][22] - It notes that the probability of credit spread compression is high in May, driven by favorable monetary conditions and the need for institutional investors to adjust their preferences in a low-interest-rate environment [1][15][19] - The report suggests that the current market conditions favor short-term credit products, while the demand for medium to long-term credit bonds may be constrained due to regulatory impacts on wealth management products [1][15][23] Group 2 - The strategy for credit bonds includes focusing on high-yielding products and extending duration where possible, particularly in the 4-5 year range, while being cautious about liquidity [2][3][23] - It highlights that the current yield spreads for various credit products are at historically high levels, indicating potential for further compression, especially in the 2-3 year and 4-5 year categories [2][24][26] - The report identifies specific sectors for investment, such as local government bonds and high-rated real estate bonds, while advising caution in lower-rated sectors due to ongoing credit risks [4][5][19]