固收周报 20250811 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 股票市场指数持续上行，债市相对平稳，并未受到显著影响，如何看待 后续"股债跷跷板"的走向？本周（2025.8.4-2025.8.8），10 年期国债活 跃券收益率从上周五的 1.695%下行 0.4bp 至 1.691%。周度复盘：周一 （8.4），早盘受前一周周五的国债征税增值税及海外弱非农数据影响， 利率有所下行。午后股债跷跷板效应显现，加之市场对于月初公布买卖 国债或买断式逆回购的预期落空，利率转而上行，全天 10 年期国债活 跃券收益率上行 1.3bp。周二（8.5），上午股市上涨，对债市造成小幅压 制。午后新闻报道佛山基孔肯雅热，叠加对于大行买债的预期发酵，利 率有所下行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 0.4bp。周三（8.6）， 股市上涨，两融余额升至 2 万亿元，但债市因流动 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased from 1.7325% last Friday to 1.695%, with a weekly change of -3.75bp. The bond yield showed a pattern of "first rising then falling," corresponding to the "first rising then falling" of the Shanghai Composite Index, indicating an obvious stock-bond seesaw effect [1][11] - Starting from August 8, the interest income of newly issued treasury bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds will be subject to value-added tax again. This policy change has short-term and long-term impacts on the bond market. In the short term, it is beneficial for old bonds, while in the long term, it is bearish for the bond market [14][15] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is as high as 89.8%, mainly due to the weakening of the US labor market, with the number of newly added non-farm payrolls reaching the lowest point in 2025 and the unemployment rate rising [21][22] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. One-week Viewpoints - **Yield Changes of 10-year Treasury Bonds**: The yield of the 10-year active treasury bond decreased by 3.75bp this week. The yield showed different trends on each trading day due to various factors such as commodity futures, stock markets, policy announcements, and economic data [1][11] - **Impact of Bond VAT Policy**: Starting from August 8, newly issued bonds will be subject to VAT, while old bonds and their subsequent issuances will continue to be exempt. In the short term, it is beneficial for old bonds, and in the long term, it is bearish for the bond market [14][15] - **Possibility of Fed Interest Rate Cut**: Considering the US economic data and labor market conditions, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is as high as 89.8% [21][22] 2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summary - **Liquidity Tracking**: The total net injection of the open market operation from July 28 to August 1 was -6433 billion yuan. The money market interest rates showed different degrees of decline [33][35] - **Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: The total commercial housing transaction area showed signs of recovery. Steel prices and LME non-ferrous metal futures official prices declined. Overseas, US bond yields generally increased, and the US dollar index, commodities, and stock markets showed different trends [50][57][71] 3. One-week Review of Local Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 70 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 337.175 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 94.638 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 242.536 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of issuance amount were Sichuan, Anhui, and Yunnan [82][83] - **Secondary Market Overview**: The stock of local bonds this week was 52.53 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 36.6108 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.69%. The top three provinces with active trading were Sichuan, Shandong, and Anhui [95] - **Local Bond Issuance Plan for this Month**: The local bond issuance plan shows the planned issuance amount of each province on different dates [102][103] 4. One-week Review of the Credit Bond Market - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 215 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 179.211 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 165.838 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 13.372 billion yuan. The net financing amount decreased by 41.542 billion yuan compared with last week [104] - **Issuance Interest Rates**: The issuance interest rates of different types of bonds showed different degrees of changes, with the issuance interest rate of short-term financing increasing by 20.50bp, and the issuance interest rates of medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds showing varying degrees of decline [120] - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total turnover of credit bonds this week was 558.558 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [120] - **Yield to Maturity**: The yields to maturity of different types of bonds showed different trends, with the yields of short-term financing and medium-term notes showing mixed trends, and the yields of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds generally rising [121][124][125] - **Credit Spreads**: The credit spreads of short-term financing and medium-term notes generally narrowed, while the credit spreads of enterprise bonds and urban investment bonds showed different trends [126][129][135] - **Grade Spreads**: The grade spreads of short-term financing and medium-term notes generally narrowed, the grade spreads of enterprise bonds generally widened, and the grade spreads of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [139][143][147]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond rose from 1.664% last Friday to 1.664% + 6.85bp = 1.7325%. The "anti-involution" policy and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project extended the stock-bond seesaw last week to the commodity-bond seesaw this week. By referring to the supply-side reform from 2015 - 2017, it is predicted that the PPI year-on-year will steadily recover but is unlikely to turn positive this year, and the recovery of the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock requires time and central bank support. It is expected that the interest rate will mainly show a downward trend this year [1][18]. - Last week, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries rose less than the long - end. Considering the impact of Trump's tariff policy on prices and the support of stablecoins for the short - end of US Treasuries, and based on the new data, the report analyzes the US economic data in July 2025, including PMI, housing sales, unemployment benefits, and EIA crude oil inventory. The "Shadow Fed Chairman" and Trump are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in July remains at 4.1%, while the probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 61.9% [3][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Impact of "Anti - Involution" Policy on Commodity - Bond Seesaw - This week (July 21 - 25, 2025), the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 6.85bp from 1.664% last Friday to 1.7325%. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the "anti - involution" policy affected the bond market. The yield increased on most days, with a slight decline on Friday [1]. - By looking back at the supply - side reform from 2015 - 2017, there was a one - year lag between the rise in commodity prices and bond yields. It is predicted that the PPI year - on - year will recover but not turn positive this year, and the recovery of the social financing stock growth rate needs time and central bank support. It is expected that the interest rate will mainly decline this year [18]. 3.1.2 Outlook for US Treasury Yields After Data Release - Last week, overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries rose less than the long - end. The report analyzes the July 2025 US economic data: the service PMI decreased, the manufacturing PMI increased; the EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 316.9 million barrels; the annualized month - on - month decline in existing home sales in June was 2.7%; the number of initial jobless claims decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased. The "Shadow Fed Chairman" and Trump are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. As of July 25, the probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in July remained at 4.1%, and the probability of a rate cut in September increased to 61.9% [3][7]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In terms of open - market operations, from July 21 - 25, 2025, the net investment was 1295 billion yuan. The money market interest rates generally increased compared to last week [40]. - The yields of various bonds and the term spreads of bonds also changed. For example, the yields of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds increased, and the term spreads of some bonds also changed [48]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices significantly increased. For example, the price of HRB400 20mm rebar nationwide rose from 3321 yuan/ton on July 18 to 3472 yuan/ton on July 25, an increase of 151 yuan/ton [55]. - The official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures all increased. For example, the price of LME 3 - month zinc rose from 2782 dollars/ton on July 18 to 2845 dollars/ton on July 25, an increase of 2.26% [57]. - The total commercial housing transaction area increased across the board [56]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 61 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 3757.55 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 828.46 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 2929.09 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of issuance amount were Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Guangdong [68]. - One province issued special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts, with Henan issuing 118.6481 billion yuan. From January 1 to July 25, 2025, the total issuance of such bonds nationwide was 18364.35 billion yuan [71]. - The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 19.58 billion yuan, with Chongqing, Gansu, and Yunnan leading in redemption amount [75]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 52.3 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 3861.04 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.74%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 20Y, and 10Y [80]. - The yields of local government bonds generally declined this week [84]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan The report shows the local government bond issuance plan for the end of July, with multiple provinces having planned issuances [85]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 370 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 3508.44 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 2959.29 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 549.15 billion yuan, an increase of 96.95 billion yuan compared to last week [87]. - Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 308.31 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 857.46 billion yuan [88]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of various bonds changed. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds decreased by 3.55bp, while that of medium - term notes increased by 9.57bp [99]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market was 5722.35 billion yuan. Among them, the trading volume of medium - term notes was the largest, reaching 3252.69 billion yuan [101]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yields of various bonds generally increased. For example, the yield of 1 - year short - term financing bonds increased by 9.61bp, and the yield of 3 - year medium - term notes increased by 10.40bp [104]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [109][116]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [120][125]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The report lists the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type. The industrial industry had the largest weekly trading volume of credit bonds, reaching 3262.06 billion yuan [133]. 3.4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings There were no bonds with upgraded or downgraded ratings or outlooks this week [134].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. There are concerns about the impact of Trump's tariff policies on prices and the support of stablecoins on the short - end of US Treasuries. The global "re - globalization" faces regional supply - demand imbalances, making it difficult for central banks to act in unison, and the view of relying on external "monetary easing" may underestimate this regional feature [1][36]. - There are concerns in the domestic convertible bond market, including potential net supply contraction, the impact of profit - taking by insurance funds and wealth management products on high valuations, and the possibility of equities "occupying" convertible bond positions. However, the convertible bond market in the second half of 2025 still has opportunities, and it is still in the early stage compared to 2014 - 2015, with less extreme supply - demand mismatch [1][37][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Market Review 3.1.1. Equity Market - From July 14th to July 18th, the equity market rose overall. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% to 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.04% to 10913.84 points, the ChiNext Index rose 3.17% to 2277.15 points, and the CSI 300 rose 1.09% to 4058.55 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 498.76 billion yuan to 15260.45 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 3.38%. Among 31 Shenwan primary industries, 18 industries closed up, with 7 industries rising more than 2%. Communication, pharmaceutical biology, automobile, machinery equipment, and national defense and military industry led the gains [6][9][12]. 3.1.2. Convertible Bond Market - From July 14th to July 18th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.67% to 453.86 points. Among 29 Shenwan primary industries, 22 industries closed up, with 5 industries rising more than 2%. Household appliances, automobile, media, electronics, and computer led the gains. The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 729.76 billion yuan, a significant increase of 16.97 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of + 2.38%. About 72.12% of individual bonds rose, with 32.49% rising in the 0 - 1% range and 19.71% rising more than 2% [6][14]. - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to decline, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 44.08%, a decrease of 0.24 pct compared to last week. Different price and parity intervals showed different trends in the conversion premium rate. In terms of industries, 9 industries saw an expansion in the conversion premium rate, and 20 industries saw an increase in conversion parity [14][19][29]. 3.1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From July 14th to July 18th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The convertible bond market's trading volume increased by 2.38% week - on - week, while the underlying stock market's trading volume decreased by 0.63% week - on - week. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better [32]. 3.2. Outlook and Investment Strategies - There are opportunities in the convertible bond market in the second half of 2025. Even compared to 2014 - 2015, it is still in the early stage, and the supply - demand mismatch is less extreme. Good "metabolism" will stimulate the continuous vitality of the convertible bond market in the medium term [1][39]. - The top ten high - rated, medium - low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for conversion premium rate repair next week are: Likezhuanzhai, Guanghezhuanzhai, Youzuzhuanzhai, Yushuizhuanzhai, Lianchengzhuanzhai, Pufazhuanzhai, Liqunzhuanzhai, Ying19zhuanzhai, Fenghuozhuanzhai, and Shuangliangzhuanzhai [1][39].

Macro Strategy - The "Great Beautiful Act" has been quickly implemented, but its distribution effects and the tightening fiscal impact from excluding extended and expanded tax cuts limit its growth stimulus for the US economy [1][24] - The act's characteristic of "increasing deficits first, reducing deficits later" implies a risk of a "fiscal cliff" around 2028 [1][24] - In the short term, concerns about the impact of US Treasury issuance on market liquidity and yield premiums are not excessive; however, the long-term path dependency of unsustainable US government debt makes it difficult for Treasury yield premiums to decrease [1][24] Fixed Income - The "stock-bond seesaw" effect is evident as the stock market stabilizes, influencing bond yields; the 10-year government bond yield rose from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week [3][5] - The bond market's reaction to Trump's threats of additional tariffs on BRICS countries was muted, indicating a limited impact on bond yields [3][5] - The bond yield's upward trend is expected to continue, influenced by stock market performance, but the extent of the increase is likely to be limited [5] Industry Insights - Wanda Film's diversified layout in esports and concert live streaming is expected to create new growth points, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.0 billion, 1.24 billion, and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [8] - Lianlian Digital is projected to achieve a reasonable P/S valuation of 8.0x and 7.0x for 2025 and 2026, respectively, as it continues to expand its business [10] - Youyou Foods has revised its profit forecast upwards, expecting net profits of 232 million, 285 million, and 329 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting a growth rate of 47.2%, 23.2%, and 15.3% [11] - Siyi Electric's net profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 1.293 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46%, driven by strong overseas orders [14][15] - The energy sector, represented by Furan Energy, anticipates stable growth in natural gas supply and a steady increase in new energy business, with net profit forecasts of 872 million, 922 million, and 976 million yuan for 2025-2027 [12] - The lithium battery sector, represented by Weilan Lithium Core, has revised its profit expectations upwards, forecasting net profits of 750 million, 1 billion, and 1.31 billion yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting significant growth [13] - The pharmaceutical sector, represented by Lianbang Pharmaceutical, is expected to see revenue growth driven by innovative drug development, with net profits projected at 3.11 billion, 3.10 billion, and 3.38 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, when the bond market has no clear trading theme, bond yields may be affected by the stock market and tend to rise, but the increase is limited. The bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and liquidity is favorable for the bond market. Yields rising to 1.7% present a configuration opportunity [1][15]. - For US Treasury yields, considering the tariff policy's potential impact on prices and the support of stable - coin reserves for short - term Treasury bonds, the outlook is complex. The Fed has different views on whether to cut interest rates, and the probability of interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Impact of the "Stock - Bond Seesaw" on the Bond Market**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose from 1.641% to 1.666%. The stock market's performance significantly affected bond yields this week. Currently, it is more of a liquidity - driven stock bull market, and the bond market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [1][10][15]. - **Trend of US Treasury Yields**: From July 4 - 11, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend. US Treasury bonds fell while US stocks remained flat. The increase in short - term US Treasury yields was weaker than that of long - term ones. Considering various data and Fed officials' statements, the probability of Fed interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the total net investment in open - market operations was - 2265 billion yuan [31]. - **Interest Rates**: Various money market interest rates such as R, DR, and SHIBOR changed slightly from July 4 to 11 [33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased [52]. - **Commodity Prices**: Steel prices rose across the board, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [54]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, 45 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 231.79 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 121.561 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 110.229 billion yuan [84]. - **Regional Distribution**: 12 provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Guizhou, Hunan, and Heilongjiang ranking in the top three in terms of issuance amount [85]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of local bonds this week was 37.0728 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.71%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong [98]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds showed a general downward trend [102]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for the Month The issuance plans of local bonds in different provinces and cities from July 14 - 18 are provided [110]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: This week, 333 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 287.445 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 199.101 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 88.344 billion yuan, an increase of 10.205 billion yuan compared to last week [106]. - **By Bond Type**: The net financing amounts of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes varied [112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and corporate bonds changed to different extents [120]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 588.518 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different credit ratings and bond types [122]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yields to maturity of national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends of increase or decrease [123][125][126][127]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [128][130][132][136]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed, while those of corporate bonds showed a general widening trend [142][145][148]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [151][152].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets in the week from July 7th to July 11th continued the previous week's trend, with U.S. Treasuries falling and U.S. stocks remaining flat. The short - end of U.S. Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Market concerns about the impact of Trump's tariff policy on prices and the use of short - term U.S. Treasuries as reserves for stablecoins support the short - end of U.S. Treasuries. The global "re - globalization" process brings challenges of regional supply - demand imbalance, making it difficult for global central banks to act in unison [1][40]. - In the domestic market, it is the interim report preview period. Buying based on performance is the trading theme, and policies aim to clear the blockages in the "internal cycle". Three dimensions are used to find opportunities in the second half of the year: valuation repair for mid - low - rated targets, performance repair for mid - low - price style targets, and promoting conversion of quasi - expiring targets. The intersection of these three dimensions may be the key area for incremental allocation, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of under - invested funds while maintaining a high - low style switch [1][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Market Review 3.1.1. Equity Market - The equity market rose overall from July 7th to July 11th. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 10696.10 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% to 2207.10 points, and the CSI 300 rose 0.82% to 4014.81 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 608.87 billion yuan to 14761.69 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 4.30% [6][8]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries rose, with 12 industries rising more than 2%. Steel, non - bank finance, building materials, computer, and environmental protection led the gains, while coal, banks, automobiles, and household appliances led the losses [13]. 3.1.2. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market rose by 0.76% to 450.85 points from July 7th to July 11th. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 28 industries rose, with 3 industries rising more than 2%. Coal, non - bank finance, social services, computer, and building materials led the gains, while banks led the losses [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 712.79 billion yuan, a significant increase of 32.55 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 4.79%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 123.57 billion yuan, and the first - ranked had a trading volume of 373.80 billion yuan. About 73.17% of convertible bond issues rose [16]. - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to decline, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 44.32%, a decrease of 2.05 pcts compared to the previous week. Different price and parity intervals showed different trends in the conversion premium rate [22]. 3.1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From July 7th to July 11th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets increased significantly. About 73.45% of convertible bonds and 70.47% of underlying stocks rose, and about 36.90% of convertible bonds had a higher gain - loss ratio than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better [35]. 3.2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - Continue to pay attention to the three dimensions of mid - low - rated targets, mid - low - price style targets, and quasi - expiring targets to find opportunities in the second half of the year. Increase the allocation of under - invested funds and maintain a high - low style switch to balance offense and defense [1][41]. - The top ten high - rated, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Pufa Convertible Bond, Hailiang Convertible Bond, Haoke Convertible Bond, Xingsen Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Fenghuo Convertible Bond, Ying 19 Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, and Shouhua Convertible Bond [1][41]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the recent U.S. tariff increases are ineffective and that the trend of re-globalization is irreversible [1][3] - It discusses the anxiety in the U.S. regarding its declining global dominance, which has led to current tensions, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations [3][4] - The article highlights that the U.S. has shifted from multilateralism to a more transactional approach, which reveals a lack of strategic coherence [3][4] Group 2 - It points out that the U.S. manufacturing sector's decline is not solely due to trade agreements but is a result of a deep transformation of American capital over the past 40 years [4][5] - The article notes that while the U.S. continues to produce high-end and advanced technology products, these sectors are capital-intensive and cannot replace the jobs lost in labor-intensive manufacturing [4][5] - It mentions that emerging economies are increasingly seeking alternatives to the U.S. dollar for trade, particularly in the context of regional trade agreements [5][6] Group 3 - The article concludes that the U.S.-China trade dispute reflects a broader historical trend towards multipolarity and diversification of global reserve currencies [5][6] - It asserts that the world is not experiencing de-globalization but is instead advancing re-globalization under new conditions and rules [5][6]

Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Outlook - The impact of U.S. tariffs is still significant despite signs of easing, with high absolute values remaining and potential inflation effects persisting [1][3] - The global market is facing challenges due to high interest rates and supply chain reorientation, with a 40% probability of the U.S. economy entering recession [3][4] - The trade corridors between China and regions such as the Middle East, Latin America, and ASEAN are experiencing significant growth, indicating a shift towards "re-globalization" [1][5] Group 2: China-ASEAN Trade Relations - The completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations is expected to boost bilateral trade, projected to reach $982.2 billion by 2024 [1][7] - The ongoing development of the free trade agreement is viewed as a key area of focus for Morgan Stanley, highlighting the importance of capturing new trade corridor opportunities [7] Group 3: Corporate Strategy and Market Adaptation - Companies are shifting from product sales to brand building in overseas markets, emphasizing the need for localization and understanding of local consumer demands [2][8] - Morgan Stanley has integrated its commercial banking operations into its global corporate banking structure to better serve businesses of varying sizes and lifecycle stages [2] Group 4: Artificial Intelligence and Technological Innovation - Morgan Stanley has been utilizing artificial intelligence for over a decade in areas such as fraud detection and risk management, with a focus on enhancing productivity and operational efficiency [9][10] - The development of the LLM suite is central to the bank's AI strategy, significantly improving the ability to summarize information and automate various business scenarios [9][10]

Group 1 - The 21st Global China Summit hosted by JPMorgan took place in Shanghai from May 22 to 23, focusing on the theme "Capital as a Bridge Connecting the World" [2] - Key topics discussed included the intersection of policy and markets, energy cooperation, and technological innovation, emphasizing the importance of ongoing dialogue amid macroeconomic uncertainty [2] - JPMorgan's Global Corporate Bank Co-Head, Bregje de Best, highlighted a trend of "re-globalization" rather than "de-globalization," with significant growth in trade corridors between China and regions like the Middle East and Latin America [2] Group 2 - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, noting substantial progress in recent China-U.S. economic talks, which create conditions for continued economic cooperation [2] - He Lifeng emphasized China's commitment to building a unified national market and expanding high-level openness, welcoming U.S. companies, including JPMorgan, to deepen mutually beneficial cooperation [2] - Jamie Dimon expressed a positive view on the outcomes of the U.S.-China economic talks and indicated JPMorgan's intention to deepen its involvement in the Chinese capital market [2]