文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 基金是非常适合普通人的投资品种。 什么类型的基金更适合新手？ 低投资的波动风险。 基金投资该怎么投？ 长期投资前要做哪些心理建设？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，能帮助新手投资者从零开始了解基金投资。 想要获取这门课程，可以扫下方二维码添加 @课程小助手 ，回复 「 基金入门 」 领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 urn(| #螺丝钉小知识 银行螺丝钉 为什么说分散配置，是投资中 "免费的午餐"？ 在投资时,不仅仅要考虑收益,也要考虑 分散风险。 集中持有一个股票，万一这个公司遇到啥 风险，投资者可能也会损失惨重。 马科维茨从这个角度入手开始研究,提出 了「投资组合」理论,也是现代投资中, 最重要的理论之一。 这个理论用一句话概括，就是: 分散配 置，可以减少风险。 分散配置一篮子相互独立的股票,可以降 分散配置，减少了风险的同时，会不会也 减少收益呢? 在分散配置搭配再平衡后，不一定会减少 收益。 这点在股票基金上也成立。 比如，分散配置中证A500和中证红利（各 自比例为50%），并且每年再平衡一次， 相比沪深300，收益要更高， ...

国泰海通证券海外策略首席分析师吴信坤认为，港股红利资产"涛声依旧"，在低利率、政策鼓励、长线 资金入市的背景下，仍具长期配置价值。 阿里巴巴股价大涨、外资大行集体唱多、港股IPO基石投资者阵容豪华等一系列信息表明，国际资本正 在重新审视并布局港股。 9月中旬，美联储降息后，美元走弱、美债收益率下降，全球出现"再平衡"需求，香港作为国际金融中 心，成为全球资金流入的热门目的地之一。 德勤中国资本市场服务部在《2025年前三季度中国内地和香港新股市场回顾与展望》的报告中称，随着 美联储展开降息周期，预计将有更多海外资金寻求布局亚洲高成长投资目标，涵盖中国内地与中国香港 市场。 更关注中国资产 美联储降息为全球流动性松绑，也为港股市场注入动能。景顺全球市场策略师团队认为，由于美联储在 通胀仍高于目标水平的情况下降息，美元可能进一步走弱，这或将利好大宗商品和非美元资产，尤其是 新兴市场。 东吴证券海外策略首席分析师陈梦认为，美联储降息短期会利好港股上行，外资关注中国资产，中期涨 幅仍取决于企业基本面回升情况。 港股市场流动性改善成效显著。数据显示，2025年8月底，香港证券市场市价总值为46.6万亿港元，较 去年同期 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the podcast is to share investment strategies and insights from Ray Dalio, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment, emphasizing the importance of diversification and risk management [2][4][5] - Dalio highlights the performance of Bridgewater's China All Weather Fund, which has achieved an average return of around 16% over the past six years, demonstrating the effectiveness of a balanced asset allocation strategy [4][5] - The discussion includes the significance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and economic fluctuations [5][6][10] Group 2 - Dalio warns about the risks of relying solely on price appreciation for bond investments in a low-yield environment, suggesting that investors should be cautious when yields are low and focus on rebalancing their portfolios [7][8] - The importance of geographical diversification is emphasized, with Dalio advising investors to avoid market timing and instead maintain a balanced portfolio across different regions [9][10][11] - Dalio provides insights on the allocation of gold within an investment portfolio, suggesting that it should typically represent around 10-15% to effectively hedge against currency devaluation [16][17] Group 3 - The podcast discusses the structural decline of the US dollar due to excessive debt, emphasizing the relationship between debt and currency value [18][19] - Dalio compares Bitcoin to gold, viewing it as a complementary asset for diversification, while highlighting the unique advantages of gold as a stable store of value [20][21] - The limitations of stablecoins are addressed, with Dalio suggesting that they are not suitable for wealth storage compared to inflation-linked bonds, which provide better protection against inflation [22][23] Group 4 - Dalio shares personal insights on family wealth management, advocating for the importance of savings and teaching future generations about the value of money through tangible assets like gold coins [25][26] - The necessity of rebalancing investment portfolios is discussed, with Dalio stressing the importance of having a disciplined approach to maintain strategic asset allocation [28][30] - The use of automated investment systems to avoid emotional decision-making is recommended, highlighting the need for a well-defined investment plan [32]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation strategies, particularly focusing on "rebalancing" to manage risks and enhance returns in investment portfolios [3][4]. Group 1: Rebalancing Strategy - The concept of rebalancing involves adjusting the proportions of stocks and bonds in a portfolio based on market movements. For instance, if stocks drop below 40% of the portfolio, selling some bonds to buy more stocks is advisable. Conversely, if stocks exceed 40%, selling some stocks to increase bond holdings is recommended [3]. - This rebalancing strategy can provide additional returns and reduce risks, effectively acting as a "free lunch" in investment [3]. Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article discusses the "All Weather" strategy, exemplified by Bridgewater Associates, which diversifies investments across various asset classes such as stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities. This strategy aims to ensure that these assets do not move in the same direction simultaneously [5][6][7]. - The effectiveness of such strategies is also noted in the A-share market, indicating their broader applicability [8]. Group 3: Black Swan Theory - The article references Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Black Swan" theory, which highlights unpredictable risks that can have significant impacts. Taleb advocates for a "barbell strategy," where the majority of investments are in safe assets like government bonds, while a small portion is allocated to high-risk options [9][10]. - This approach allows investors to earn stable returns from safe assets while being positioned to benefit significantly if a "Black Swan" event occurs, thus acting as a risk mitigation strategy [11]. Group 4: Global Adoption - The strategies discussed are widely adopted by investors globally, showcasing their relevance and effectiveness in various market conditions [12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that cash is a poor long-term investment, and investors should diversify their portfolios beyond real estate and cash deposits [2][5] - A balanced and diversified investment portfolio can mitigate significant market volatility, as different asset classes perform differently under varying market conditions [4][6] - Investors should avoid trying to time the market, as it is essentially a zero-sum game, and instead focus on maintaining a well-diversified portfolio [4][8] Group 2 - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding that asset returns consist of price changes and interest, and caution is advised when returns are primarily driven by price appreciation rather than interest [6][7] - It is suggested that investors should not solely focus on individual components of their portfolio but rather consider how these components work together to create a well-diversified investment strategy [4][8] - The concept of risk balancing is introduced, where combining non-correlated assets can significantly reduce overall portfolio risk while maintaining expected returns [9][10] Group 3 - The importance of rebalancing investment portfolios is emphasized, as it helps to maintain strategic asset allocation and avoid emotional decision-making [24][26] - The article discusses the role of gold as a non-yielding asset, suggesting it should be viewed as a form of currency that can effectively diversify risk [13][15] - The potential structural decline of the US dollar is addressed, linking it to the excessive growth of debt and the implications for monetary policy [16][18] Group 4 - The article mentions the limitations of stablecoins as a wealth storage tool, emphasizing their role in transactions rather than as an investment asset [17][19] - The discussion includes the importance of teaching financial literacy and the value of saving, particularly through the practice of gifting gold coins to younger generations [21][22] - The necessity of having a solid financial foundation before taking on higher investment risks is highlighted, advocating for a disciplined approach to investing [22][23]

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of diversified investment strategies for Chinese investors, particularly in the context of a volatile market environment and low interest rates [3][4]. Group 1: Investment Principles and Asset Allocation - Dalio advocates for a balanced and diversified investment portfolio, suggesting that investors should not attempt to time the market, as it is essentially a zero-sum game [8][12]. - A well-diversified portfolio can mitigate the risks associated with significant asset volatility, and it is advisable to hold a mix of assets including stocks, bonds, and gold [8][12]. - The current challenge for Chinese investors is the heavy concentration of funds in real estate and cash deposits, which does not constitute a good diversified investment strategy [8][12]. Group 2: Asset Class Perspectives - Dalio notes that different asset classes perform variably under different economic conditions, and thus, a diversified approach is essential to balance risk and return [8][12]. - He highlights that cash is a poor long-term investment, especially in the current low-interest-rate environment, and suggests that investors should reduce cash holdings in favor of a diversified asset mix [8][12]. - Gold is viewed as a crucial asset for risk diversification, and Dalio recommends that it should constitute about 10-15% of an optimized portfolio [18][19]. Group 3: Execution Discipline and Investment Mindset - Dalio stresses the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach, which includes regular rebalancing of the portfolio to ensure alignment with strategic asset allocation goals [23][24]. - He advises against emotional decision-making in investments and suggests that having a systematic investment plan can help avoid impulsive actions [24][25]. - The concept of "rebalancing" is crucial for managing investment portfolios, allowing investors to take profits from overperforming assets and reinvest in underperforming ones [23][24].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that fund investment is a suitable method for lazy investors, highlighting the importance of preparing before starting a systematic investment plan [2][3] - It discusses the necessity of creating a well-structured investment plan and outlines four different investment methods to determine which is most suitable for individual investors [2][3] Group 2 - The article presents three major advantages of investing in a combination of active funds rather than a single fund manager [6][7] - The first advantage is the reduction of personal risk associated with individual fund managers, as changes in management can affect investment strategies and styles [8] - The second advantage is the reduction of volatility risk by diversifying across different investment styles and industries, which can help stabilize overall portfolio performance [9][10][11] - The third advantage is the provision of multiple sources of returns, including overall market returns, stock selection by fund managers, and the benefits of selecting outstanding fund managers, which can enhance overall investment returns through diversification and rebalancing strategies [12]

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "rebalancing" as a strategy to manage investment portfolios, emphasizing its effectiveness in achieving "buy low, sell high" without the need for precise market timing [6][12][40] - Rebalancing is most effective when the assets in a portfolio have similar long-term returns but exhibit significant short-term volatility, allowing for better profit-taking opportunities [13][14][23] - The article presents empirical data showing that rebalancing can enhance returns, particularly in combinations like "A-shares & cash" and "A-shares & bonds," where annualized returns differ by no more than 3% over the past decade [23][26] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that rebalancing may not always be beneficial, especially in scenarios where asset classes have significantly different long-term returns, as it can limit exposure to high-performing assets [29][30][36] - The article highlights that the primary value of rebalancing lies in risk management rather than solely in return enhancement, helping to maintain a portfolio's risk profile within acceptable limits [43][44] - It emphasizes the importance of having a clear initial asset allocation strategy to maximize the benefits of rebalancing, ensuring that it serves its intended purpose of stabilizing the investment approach [43][44]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balanced asset allocation strategy, particularly the role of bonds as a stabilizing asset in the face of fluctuating stock market conditions. It warns against the human tendency to chase high returns in stocks while neglecting the benefits of bonds, which can provide stability and lower overall investment risk [5][7][10]. Group 1: Market Observations - A-shares have recently surged, surpassing 3600 points, while bond performance has lagged behind, leading many investors to consider liquidating bond funds in favor of stock funds [1][2]. - Historical patterns show that after significant stock market rallies, such as the one in late September 2022, investors who shifted from bonds to stocks often faced subsequent market downturns and missed out on bond market gains [4][6]. Group 2: Behavioral Insights - The desire to sell underperforming bond funds and invest in high-performing stock funds reflects a common psychological bias towards greed, often resulting in "buy high, sell low" behavior [5][6]. - The article highlights that this behavior is prevalent across different asset classes and market cycles, leading to potential losses as investors react to short-term market movements rather than adhering to a disciplined investment strategy [6][10]. Group 3: Importance of Bonds - Bonds are portrayed as undervalued assets that provide essential stability in an investment portfolio, especially during economic downturns or periods of market volatility [7][8]. - The article argues that a diversified strategy that includes bonds can yield better long-term returns compared to a strategy focused solely on stocks, as bonds can perform well in various economic conditions [8][10]. Group 4: Risk Management - Incorporating bonds into an investment strategy can help mitigate risks associated with stock market volatility, allowing investors to maintain their positions during downturns and avoid panic selling [11][12]. - The concept of rebalancing is introduced as a disciplined approach to managing asset allocation, where investors can adjust their portfolios based on predetermined ratios rather than emotional reactions to market changes [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market is experiencing an upward trend, with various sectors showing positive performance, particularly in technology and healthcare, while the Hong Kong stock market is showing mixed results [1][4]. Market Performance - The overall market has risen, closing at 4.9 stars, with large, mid, and small-cap stocks all experiencing similar gains [1][2]. - Growth style stocks are performing strongly, while value style stocks show slight fluctuations [3]. Sector Analysis - Technology, ChiNext, and pharmaceutical biotechnology sectors have seen significant increases [4]. - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a slight decline after a previous rise, with its dividend index continuing to increase [4]. Investment Strategies - The "Yuexinbao" investment strategy has reached a historical high, with plans to adjust the stock-bond ratio [6][7]. - The "Yuexinbao" and similar strategies benefit from declining deposit rates, leading to higher returns in 2023 compared to previous years [8]. Return Sources - Returns are derived from three main components: 1. **Equity Portion**: Focused on value style stocks, contributing stable returns through dividends and long-term price appreciation [9][11]. 2. **Bond Portion**: Emphasizes short to medium-term bonds due to current low yields in long-term bonds [12]. 3. **Rebalancing**: Adjusting the portfolio to maintain target allocations, which can enhance returns during market fluctuations [13][18]. Historical Performance - A rebalancing opportunity occurred in February 2024, where the "Yuexinbao" strategy saw a significant recovery, with stock assets increasing by approximately 30% from February to June [19][21]. Dividend Index Valuation - The current valuation of various dividend indices indicates some are still undervalued, but they are approaching normal valuation levels [29].