Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed's monetary policy adjustments and industry - specific factors jointly affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, most non - ferrous metals show different trends in price, inventory, and market sentiment, with short - term price trends varying from metal to metal [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - The Fed's interest rate cut and the rate dot - plot's indication of future cuts led to copper price adjustments. LME copper closed down 1.41% to $9974/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79880 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment was weak. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 79200 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9880 - 10100 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices generally declined. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2689/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20750 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the market transaction was not ideal. With downstream entering the traditional peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strongly supported. The domestic main contract is expected to run between 20700 - 21000 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2660 - 2720 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Lead concentrate raw materials are in short supply, and the downstream battery inventory is decreasing. Although there was some emotional disturbance in the non - ferrous metal sector before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the overall sentiment is still positive, and the improved industry data supports the upward breakthrough of lead prices [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Zinc concentrate inventory is rising, and processing fees are differentiated. The import window is closed, and the zinc ore surplus is alleviated. Although the SHFE zinc increase is limited, if the zinc ingot export window opens and zinc ore imports are restricted, the domestic zinc price may rise with the sector [6]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The supply of tin is significantly reduced due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and smelter maintenance. Although the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors have weak demand, the demand has marginally improved with the arrival of the peak season, so the price is expected to be strong [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long term, factors such as the Fed's easing expectations and the RKAB approval are expected to support the nickel price. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a volatile adjustment. The fundamental improvement has been reflected in the market, and there is currently no new marginal change to drive the price up. Attention should be paid to industry information and macro - expectation changes. The reference operating range of the GZFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 70800 - 75800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The demand for stainless steel is weak due to the downturn in the real estate industry. Although the demand from the new energy vehicle industry is increasing, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. The downstream consumption has not improved significantly, and the market is waiting and watching [16][17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost is strongly supported by the supply disturbance of scrap aluminum at home and abroad. With the exchange reducing the margin ratio, market activity is increasing [19].

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, indicating rising downside risks in the labor market [4] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a risk management measure, acknowledging a shift in the risk landscape as the labor market cools [4] - The latest dot plot suggests two more 25 basis point cuts this year and an additional cut next year, reflecting a dovish stance from the Fed [5] Stock Performance - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 260.42 points (0.57%) to 46018.32, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22261.33 [3] - Financial stocks led the market, with notable gains in major banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, both up over 1% [3][6] - Baidu's stock surged over 11%, while other Chinese tech stocks like Bilibili and Alibaba rose over 2% [3] Economic Data - U.S. new home starts for August were reported at an annualized rate of 1.3 million, down 3.7% from July, falling short of market expectations [6] - Building permits also declined from 1.362 million in July to 1.312 million, marking the lowest level since May 2020 [6] Commodity Prices - International oil prices decreased, with WTI crude oil down 0.73% to $64.05 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.76% to $67.95 per barrel [7] - Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery down 0.19% to $3681.80 per ounce [7]

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至发稿，道琼斯指数涨0.68%，纳斯达克指数跌0.51%，标普500跌0.13%。 大型科技股跌多涨少，截至发稿，苹果涨0.55%，谷歌跌1.28%，微软跌0.27%，脸书跌0.39%，亚马逊跌1.39%，特斯拉跌0.65%，英伟达跌3%。 | E | 现价 | 涨跌幅▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | 苹果(APPLE) | 239.450 | 0.55% | | US AAPL | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 507.645 | -0.27% | | US MSFT | | | | 脸书(META PLATFC | 775.993 | -0.39% | | US META | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 418.890 | -0.65% | | US TSLA | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-A | 247.940 | -1.28% | | US GOOGL | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 230.790 | -1.39% | | US AMZN | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 16 ...

正如同有着"新美联储通讯社"之称的著名记者Nick Timiraos所形容的那样，今晚美联储即将召开多年来最为奇特的一场议息会议…… 外界普遍预计，受近期就业增长放缓推动，美联储官员将在周三为期两天的会议结束时降息25个基点。在上月的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 上，美联储主席鲍威尔其实就已暗示了降息的临近，当时他转向优先考虑就业问题，而非挥之不去的通胀担忧。 然而， 尽管美联储时隔9个月后的重启降息，本身就已足够引人瞩目，但今晚这个特殊议息夜的看点，显然还远不止于此——在历史上，美 联储还从未像本周这样，直到议息会议前的最后一天，才正式敲定了本次议息会议的参会官员名单…… 美国参议院在本周一仅以一票的微弱优势，通过了对白宫经济顾问委员会主席米兰出任美联储理事的提名；同样是在周一，美联储理事库克 则在经历了与特朗普政府的官司后，"侥幸"留在了美联储理事会中。不难预见的是，这两位美国总统特朗普眼里的"亲信"与"眼中钉"，很 可能会先在美联储内部上演一场"口水战"。而特朗普在本周早些时候，则已明确呼吁美联储"大幅降息"！ （米兰今晚将坐在库格勒位子上，与库克仅一席之隔） 抛开这些政治纷争，投资者也料将密切聚焦美联储主席 ...

贝莱德投资研究所在周一的一份研究报告中称，"我们保持风险偏好，因为美联储本周可能会恢复降 息。劳动力市场疲软为美联储提供了降息空间，有助于缓解因利率上升而酝酿的政治紧张局势．.....即 使推动收益率上升的结构性压力（包括全球宽松的财政政策）持续存在，收益率也可能在短期内进一步 下降。" 不过，分析机构同样注意到了美联储内部的分歧。德意志银行首席经济学家卢泽蒂（Matt Luzzetti）表 示，此次会议可能成为 1988年以来首次有三名理事提出反对意见的会议，也可能是 2019年9 月以来首 次出现 "双向反对"（即反对意见指向两个不同方向）的会议。 新华财经北京9月16日电美国国债收益率周一（9月15日）普遍下跌2-3BP，交易员预测美联储本周将宣 布降息。截至当日纽市尾盘，10年期美债收益率跌2.87个基点，报4.0356%；2年期美债收益率跌2.10个 基点，报3.5347%。 为期两天的美联储货币政策会议将于周二召开。由于此前公布的数据发出劳动力市场疲软的信号，外界 普遍预计，此次会议将开启新一轮降息进程。据CME"美联储观察"，美联储本周降息25个基点的概率 为95.9%，降息50个基点的概率为4 ...

格隆汇9月15日｜摩根大通分析师指出，无论美联储鸽派还是鹰派委员，均可能因通胀前景不明而对"承 诺宽松路径"保持谨慎。美联储9月议息会议后的政策指引或模糊不清，利率点阵图难现统一方向，市场 需为"不一致信号"做好准备。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

关键时刻，特朗普向美联储"极限施压"。 在9月议息会议前夕，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储将在此次会议上实施9个月以来的首次宽松政策，他 预期美联储会"大幅降息"。与此同时，特朗普政府再度敦促美国上诉法院批准解雇美联储理事库克。 目前来看，市场已经确信美联储将会至少降息25个基点，但降息50个基点的难度很大。据CME"美联储 观察"，美联储本周降息25个基点的概率达96.4%，降息50个基点的概率仅为3.6%。有分析指出，本周 美联储会议声明的措辞、利率点阵图以及投票结果，将是判断美联储未来货币政策走向的关键。 "降息幅度会很大" 美东时间9月14日，美国总统特朗普表示，美联储本周将举行一次关键会议，美联储预计将在此次会议 上实施九个月来的首次宽松政策，届时美联储将"大幅降息" 。 "我认为美联储的降息幅度会很大，"特朗普周日返回华盛顿途中对记者表示："现在正是降息的最佳时 机。" 根据日程安排，美联储将于本周（9月16日至17日）召开议息会议，届时将决定是否降息。市场一致认 为，该央行将在此次会议上进行今年以来首次降息。 谈及下一任美联储主席人选，特朗普称："我有三个非常看好的人。" 在议息会议前夕，特朗普政府 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change, aligning with market expectations [1] - Changes in the June FOMC statement include the removal of "recent months" to emphasize the long-term low unemployment rate, a modification of the economic outlook uncertainty, and the return of Kansas City Fed President Esther George to the voting committee [1] - The Fed raised the median interest rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4%, indicating a slowdown in the rate cut process in the coming years [1] Group 2 - Following the June rate decision, the US dollar index rose, closing at 98.85 on June 18 and reaching a high of 99.16 on June 19, reflecting market expectations for rate cuts in September and December [2] - There is a potential for the dollar index to rebound to the 99-100 range due to adjustments in interest rate expectations, especially if inflation risks increase from oil prices and tariffs [2] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced a decline post-Fed meeting, with London gold falling to 3369 yuan per ounce and silver dropping below 37 dollars per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with market focus on Chairman Powell's speech and the "dot plot" for future rate expectations [2][16][20]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on June 18, with a press conference by Chairman Powell to follow [2][15]. - Market consensus anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, with only a minority expecting a 25 basis point cut [16][20]. - The "dot plot," which reflects individual officials' rate predictions, will be closely watched, as it may indicate only one rate cut for the year [19][20]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision, U.S. stock markets showed strength, with major indices rising [4]. - The approval of the "Stablecoin Innovation Act" by the U.S. Senate contributed to a significant rise in Circle's stock, which increased over 8% [4][5]. - Major tech stocks also saw gains, with companies like Tesla and Broadcom rising over 2% [7]. Group 3: Economic Data - Recent labor data showed a decrease in initial jobless claims to 245,000, aligning with market expectations [8]. - The four-week average of initial claims rose slightly to 245,500, indicating a mixed labor market signal [9]. - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits were reported at 1.945 million, slightly above expectations [10].

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold surged last week, reaching a high of $3446.71, the highest in nearly two months, and opened strong today, breaking the $3450 mark with an intraday increase of nearly $20 before retracing to around $3415 [1] Group 2: Central Bank Meetings - This week is termed "Super Central Bank Week," with the market anticipating critical monetary policy meetings from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Switzerland, and the UK [2][6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with focus on the policy statement, Chairman Powell's press conference, and the dot plot [5] - The market currently sees a 95% chance of a rate cut in September and another potential cut in December, with Citigroup predicting a total reduction of 75 basis points this year [5] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate rose to 2.4% in May, with core CPI at 2.8%, which is above the Fed's 2% target, supporting the Fed's "patience" stance [5] - Concerns about potential recession are heightened by signs of weakness in the job market, adding uncertainty to the Fed's rate cut outlook [5] Group 4: International Conflicts - The situation in the Middle East is escalating, with Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, leading to significant casualties on both sides, particularly for Iran [10][11] - U.S. President Trump indicated a possibility of a future agreement between Israel and Iran but acknowledged the likelihood of military conflict [13] - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a recent armed attack resulted in at least 318 deaths, highlighting ongoing security issues in the region [13][14]