Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed's monetary policy adjustments and industry - specific factors jointly affect the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Overall, most non - ferrous metals show different trends in price, inventory, and market sentiment, with short - term price trends varying from metal to metal [2][4][5]. Summary by Metal Copper - The Fed's interest rate cut and the rate dot - plot's indication of future cuts led to copper price adjustments. LME copper closed down 1.41% to $9974/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79880 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment was weak. Short - term copper prices may turn to a volatile trend, with the SHFE copper main contract running between 79200 - 80800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9880 - 10100 dollars/ton [2]. Aluminum - After the Fed's interest rate cut, aluminum prices generally declined. LME aluminum closed down 0.83% to $2689/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20750 yuan/ton. Domestic inventories increased, and the market transaction was not ideal. With downstream entering the traditional peak season, aluminum prices are expected to be strongly supported. The domestic main contract is expected to run between 20700 - 21000 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M between 2660 - 2720 dollars/ton [4]. Lead - Lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Lead concentrate raw materials are in short supply, and the downstream battery inventory is decreasing. Although there was some emotional disturbance in the non - ferrous metal sector before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the overall sentiment is still positive, and the improved industry data supports the upward breakthrough of lead prices [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Zinc concentrate inventory is rising, and processing fees are differentiated. The import window is closed, and the zinc ore surplus is alleviated. Although the SHFE zinc increase is limited, if the zinc ingot export window opens and zinc ore imports are restricted, the domestic zinc price may rise with the sector [6]. Tin - Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile. The supply of tin is significantly reduced due to slow resumption of production in Myanmar and smelter maintenance. Although the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors have weak demand, the demand has marginally improved with the arrival of the peak season, so the price is expected to be strong [7]. Nickel - In the short term, the high inventory of refined nickel drags down the nickel price, but in the long term, factors such as the Fed's easing expectations and the RKAB approval are expected to support the nickel price. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the SHFE nickel main contract running between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is in a volatile adjustment. The fundamental improvement has been reflected in the market, and there is currently no new marginal change to drive the price up. Attention should be paid to industry information and macro - expectation changes. The reference operating range of the GZFE lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 70800 - 75800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the ore price has short - term support, it may be under pressure after the rainy season, and the over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. However, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metal sector to be strong. The domestic main contract AO2601 is expected to run between 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The demand for stainless steel is weak due to the downturn in the real estate industry. Although the demand from the new energy vehicle industry is increasing, it cannot offset the decline in traditional demand. The downstream consumption has not improved significantly, and the market is waiting and watching [16][17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high in the short term. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the cost is strongly supported by the supply disturbance of scrap aluminum at home and abroad. With the exchange reducing the margin ratio, market activity is increasing [19].

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, indicating rising downside risks in the labor market [4] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the rate cut as a risk management measure, acknowledging a shift in the risk landscape as the labor market cools [4] - The latest dot plot suggests two more 25 basis point cuts this year and an additional cut next year, reflecting a dovish stance from the Fed [5] Stock Performance - Major U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones rising by 260.42 points (0.57%) to 46018.32, while the Nasdaq fell by 0.33% to 22261.33 [3] - Financial stocks led the market, with notable gains in major banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, both up over 1% [3][6] - Baidu's stock surged over 11%, while other Chinese tech stocks like Bilibili and Alibaba rose over 2% [3] Economic Data - U.S. new home starts for August were reported at an annualized rate of 1.3 million, down 3.7% from July, falling short of market expectations [6] - Building permits also declined from 1.362 million in July to 1.312 million, marking the lowest level since May 2020 [6] Commodity Prices - International oil prices decreased, with WTI crude oil down 0.73% to $64.05 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.76% to $67.95 per barrel [7] - Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, with COMEX gold futures for September delivery down 0.19% to $3681.80 per ounce [7]

北京时间9月18日凌晨，美股三大指数涨跌不一，截至发稿，道琼斯指数涨0.68%，纳斯达克指数跌0.51%，标普500跌0.13%。 大型科技股跌多涨少，截至发稿，苹果涨0.55%，谷歌跌1.28%，微软跌0.27%，脸书跌0.39%，亚马逊跌1.39%，特斯拉跌0.65%，英伟达跌3%。 | E | 现价 | 涨跌幅▼ | | --- | --- | --- | | 苹果(APPLE) | 239.450 | 0.55% | | US AAPL | | | | 微软(MICROSOFT) | 507.645 | -0.27% | | US MSFT | | | | 脸书(META PLATFC | 775.993 | -0.39% | | US META | | | | 特斯拉(TESLA) | 418.890 | -0.65% | | US TSLA | | | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)-A | 247.940 | -1.28% | | US GOOGL | | | | 亚马逊(AMAZON) | 230.790 | -1.39% | | US AMZN | | | | 英伟达(NVIDIA) | 16 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming meeting, influenced by recent employment growth slowdown and a shift in focus towards employment issues rather than inflation concerns [1][2][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision to finalize the meeting's participant list just before the meeting is unprecedented, indicating potential internal conflicts among officials [2][4]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut is approximately 96%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 4% according to the CME FedWatch Tool [6]. - Recent disappointing economic data has heightened concerns about a slowdown in the labor market, which could impact consumer spending and economic growth [8]. Group 2: Internal Conflicts and Predictions - The internal division within the Federal Reserve may be more pronounced than in previous meetings, with some officials advocating for a larger rate cut while others prefer to maintain current rates [11][12]. - The addition of Milan to the Federal Reserve is expected to strengthen the faction supporting more aggressive rate cuts, while the hawkish side remains significant [12]. Group 3: Dot Plot and Future Rate Cuts - The dot plot will be closely watched for indications of future rate cuts, particularly regarding the number of cuts expected in 2025 and the potential for increased divergence in 2026 predictions [13][14]. - Analysts predict that the dot plot will show two rate cuts for the year, with the possibility of an adjustment based on internal disagreements [17][20]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - Historical data suggests that the S&P 500 typically shows positive returns in the 12 to 24 months following the Federal Reserve's first or resumed rate cuts [22][23]. - In periods of strong economic performance with limited rate cuts, cyclical sectors like financials and industrials tend to outperform, while defensive sectors gain traction during more aggressive rate cuts [26][30]. - Gold prices historically rise when the Federal Reserve cuts rates amid high inflation, with predictions suggesting gold could reach $4,000 per ounce by 2026 [26].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. Treasury yields have generally declined, with traders predicting a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [1][2] - The 10-year Treasury yield fell by 2.87 basis points to 4.0356%, while the 2-year yield decreased by 2.10 basis points to 3.5347% [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve is estimated at 95.9%, while a 50 basis point cut is at 4.1% according to CME's FedWatch [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Morgan Stanley caution that regardless of whether the Federal Reserve adopts a dovish or hawkish stance, they may remain cautious about committing to a loose monetary path due to uncertain inflation prospects [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to have unclear policy guidance, with the dot plot likely lacking a unified direction, preparing the market for "inconsistent signals" [2] - The appointment of new Federal Reserve officials is another focal point for the market, with uncertainty surrounding the participation of Governor Cook and the confirmation of Stephen Moore [2] Group 3 - Former St. Louis Fed President Brad expressed interest in the Fed Chair position, emphasizing the importance of maintaining the dollar's status as a reserve currency and ensuring low and stable inflation [2] - Brad anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut and signals for further easing, suggesting that a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year is reasonable [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts suggest that both dovish and hawkish members of the Federal Reserve may remain cautious about a "commitment to a loose path" due to the uncertain inflation outlook [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Policy - The policy guidance following the Federal Reserve's September meeting is likely to be unclear [1] - The dot plot for interest rates may not show a unified direction, indicating potential mixed signals for the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is exerting significant pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement a substantial interest rate cut during the upcoming meeting, marking the first easing policy in nine months [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The market is highly confident that the Federal Reserve will at least cut rates by 25 basis points, with a probability of 96.4% for this move, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is only 3.6% [1][5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold a crucial meeting from September 16 to 17, where it will decide on the interest rate cut, with a consensus that this will be the first cut of the year [2][5]. - Analysts suggest that the wording of the meeting's statement, the dot plot, and the voting results will be critical in determining the future direction of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][6]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Investor optimism regarding the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle has driven asset prices to high levels, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield near its lowest point since April [6]. - The S&P 500 index is approaching historical highs, and the Nasdaq 100 index recently set a new record, reflecting strong market performance amid expectations of rate cuts [6]. - Economic indicators show a mixed picture, with persistent inflation and softening labor data, leading traders to weigh the potential for more aggressive easing measures from the Federal Reserve [6][8]. Group 3: Implications of Leadership Changes - President Trump has expressed interest in appointing new candidates for the Federal Reserve chair, indicating potential shifts in leadership that could influence monetary policy [3]. - The ongoing legal battle regarding the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook may impact the composition of the board and, consequently, the decision-making process regarding interest rates [4][5].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting with no change, aligning with market expectations [1] - Changes in the June FOMC statement include the removal of "recent months" to emphasize the long-term low unemployment rate, a modification of the economic outlook uncertainty, and the return of Kansas City Fed President Esther George to the voting committee [1] - The Fed raised the median interest rate forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4%, indicating a slowdown in the rate cut process in the coming years [1] Group 2 - Following the June rate decision, the US dollar index rose, closing at 98.85 on June 18 and reaching a high of 99.16 on June 19, reflecting market expectations for rate cuts in September and December [2] - There is a potential for the dollar index to rebound to the 99-100 range due to adjustments in interest rate expectations, especially if inflation risks increase from oil prices and tariffs [2] Group 3 - Precious metals experienced a decline post-Fed meeting, with London gold falling to 3369 yuan per ounce and silver dropping below 37 dollars per ounce [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with market focus on Chairman Powell's speech and the "dot plot" for future rate expectations [2][16][20]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on June 18, with a press conference by Chairman Powell to follow [2][15]. - Market consensus anticipates that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, with only a minority expecting a 25 basis point cut [16][20]. - The "dot plot," which reflects individual officials' rate predictions, will be closely watched, as it may indicate only one rate cut for the year [19][20]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's decision, U.S. stock markets showed strength, with major indices rising [4]. - The approval of the "Stablecoin Innovation Act" by the U.S. Senate contributed to a significant rise in Circle's stock, which increased over 8% [4][5]. - Major tech stocks also saw gains, with companies like Tesla and Broadcom rising over 2% [7]. Group 3: Economic Data - Recent labor data showed a decrease in initial jobless claims to 245,000, aligning with market expectations [8]. - The four-week average of initial claims rose slightly to 245,500, indicating a mixed labor market signal [9]. - Continuing claims for unemployment benefits were reported at 1.945 million, slightly above expectations [10].

Group 1: Gold Market - Spot gold surged last week, reaching a high of $3446.71, the highest in nearly two months, and opened strong today, breaking the $3450 mark with an intraday increase of nearly $20 before retracing to around $3415 [1] Group 2: Central Bank Meetings - This week is termed "Super Central Bank Week," with the market anticipating critical monetary policy meetings from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Switzerland, and the UK [2][6] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, with focus on the policy statement, Chairman Powell's press conference, and the dot plot [5] - The market currently sees a 95% chance of a rate cut in September and another potential cut in December, with Citigroup predicting a total reduction of 75 basis points this year [5] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate rose to 2.4% in May, with core CPI at 2.8%, which is above the Fed's 2% target, supporting the Fed's "patience" stance [5] - Concerns about potential recession are heightened by signs of weakness in the job market, adding uncertainty to the Fed's rate cut outlook [5] Group 4: International Conflicts - The situation in the Middle East is escalating, with Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, leading to significant casualties on both sides, particularly for Iran [10][11] - U.S. President Trump indicated a possibility of a future agreement between Israel and Iran but acknowledged the likelihood of military conflict [13] - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, a recent armed attack resulted in at least 318 deaths, highlighting ongoing security issues in the region [13][14]