此外，在售美元理财产品中，有多款产品业绩比较基准已突破4%。例如，中银理财推出的多款固定收 益类美元理财产品，业绩比较基准均为4%左右，该行代销的汇华理财"时间朋友"系列两款产品，业绩 比较基准更是达到5%至5.45%；农银理财近日推出的多款美元理财产品，业绩比较基准在1.5%至4.6% 区间，主要投向境内外固定收益类美元资产。 近期多只美元理财产品呈现高收益"吸金"与"提前止盈"并行的特点。其中，部分产品因触发预设止盈机 制提前终止，另有部分在售产品的业绩比较基准已超过4%。 不过，业内专家提醒，美元理财产品的高收益主要源于美国较高的基准利率，不过其背后潜藏的汇率波 动风险与利率下行风险尚未被充分考量。投资者不应仅从单一维度比较收益，而应综合评估自身风险偏 好、资金期限及汇率对冲能力，避免盲目追逐高收益。 美元理财热度不减 今年以来，部分美元理财产品陆续出现止盈提前终止情形。7月8日，招银理财发布公告称，该公司发行 的招睿美元海外QDII（存款存单及国债）尊享目标盈6号固收类理财，原预计到期日为2026年12月15 日。根据产品说明书的相关约定，该产品现已达到止盈条件，将按产品说明书约定于2025年7月10 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers specific outlooks and trading suggestions for various commodities. 2. Core Views - **Macro Environment**: Market uncertainties persist across different sectors, influencing the price movements of various commodities. The economic situation, policy changes, and geopolitical factors all play significant roles in shaping market trends [1]. - **Commodity - Specific Trends**: Different commodities have distinct price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external influences such as tariffs and geopolitical events. For example, some metals are expected to face downward pressure due to factors like supply increases or cost - related issues, while others may see price rebounds or stabilizations [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories **Macro - Financial** - **Equity Index**: In the short term, with limited domestic and international positive factors, but decent market sentiment and liquidity, the equity index may show a relatively strong oscillatory pattern [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and a weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning about interest - rate risks restricts upward movement [1]. **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Given market uncertainties, the gold price is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the silver price is likely to oscillate due to market uncertainties [1]. **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a back - flow of non - US copper, posing a risk of price correction for Shanghai and London copper [1]. - **Aluminum**: With the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and high prices suppressing downstream demand, the aluminum price faces a risk of decline. However, the domestic anti - involution policy boosts the expectation of supply - side reform, causing the alumina price to stabilize and rebound [1]. - **Zinc**: Tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expected inventory build - up is still pressuring the zinc price. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: With macro uncertainties and a slight decline in the premium of Indonesian nickel ore, the nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly. Short - term short - selling is recommended, and in the long - term, the oversupply of primary nickel will continue to exert downward pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After a rebound, the sustainability of the stainless - steel price is uncertain. Short - term trading is advised, and selling hedges can be considered at high prices, while keeping an eye on raw - material changes and steel production [1]. - **Tin**: With increasing tariff disturbances, the tin price is mainly priced based on macro factors. In the short term, the supply - demand situation is weak, and the driving force for price movement is limited [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply shows a pattern of decrease in the north and increase in the south. Although the demand for polysilicon has a marginal increase, there are expectations of future production cuts. After the price rally, market divergence is likely to emerge [1]. - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and market sentiment is high [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply side has not seen production cuts, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and there is capital - based gaming in the market [1]. **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The strong performance of furnace materials provides cost support, but the spot market for hot - rolled coils has a risk of marginal weakening. Both are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, production has increased, demand is decent, supply - demand is relatively balanced, but cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is under pressure due to short - term production increases, relatively balanced supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: Production has slightly increased, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1]. - **Glass**: There is an improvement in the supply - demand margin in the short term, with stable supply and resilient demand. However, in the medium - term, oversupply may make it difficult for the price to rise [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply has been disrupted, direct and terminal demand is weak, cost support has weakened, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: For coking coal, short - term short - selling opportunities can be considered, and for coke, focus on selling hedges when the futures price has a premium [1]. **Agricultural Products** - **Palm Oil**: OPEC +'s unexpected production increase causes a decline in crude oil prices, and palm oil is expected to follow suit. In the long run, international oil - fat demand is expected to increase, so a bullish view is taken on far - month contracts [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The near - month fundamentals are weak, but it may show a relatively strong performance due to the influence of palm oil [1]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long - term, macro uncertainties are high. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate. Overall, the domestic cotton price is expected to show a weakly oscillatory downward trend [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but if crude oil prices continue to be weak, it may affect the sugar - production ratio and lead to higher - than - expected sugar output [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term policy - driven grain releases and a low wheat - corn price difference have a negative impact on the corn market. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and for the far - month CO1 contract, short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the US, the supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten. If Sino - US trade policies remain unchanged, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter for soybean meal, and the far - month contract price is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the overall decline in the futures price is expected to be limited [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: With the cooling of the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the market returns to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC +'s unexpected production increase and strong short - term consumption in Europe and the US during the peak season are the main influencing factors [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: The downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production is expected to increase, and inventory has slightly increased [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There have been recent device disturbances stimulating the price increase, OPEC's unexpected production increase, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are under pressure, and attention should be paid to the price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and the de - stocking progress of synthetic rubber [1]. - **PTA**: The PTA basis continues to weaken, but the crude - oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of reduction, and the PTA spot market is becoming more abundant, with low replenishment willingness from polyester manufacturers due to profit compression [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has slightly increased, the future arrival volume of ethylene glycol is large, and the concentrated procurement due to improved polyester sales has an impact on the market [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is low, and factory maintenance has increased. With a high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related to the market [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly recovered, the import volume has decreased, the styrene device load has increased, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the styrene basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: Domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, but the export expectation in the second half of the year is improving [1]. - **PE**: With good macro - sentiment, many maintenance activities, and mainly rigid demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PP**: The maintenance support is limited, orders are mainly for rigid demand, and the anti - involution policy has boosted market sentiment, causing the price to oscillate strongly [1]. - **PVC**: The price of coking coal has increased, the market sentiment is good, the number of maintenance activities has decreased compared to the previous period, but the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The price is expected to oscillate strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has dropped to a low level, the decline in liquid chlorine has eroded the comprehensive profit of the chlor - alkali industry, and the number of current warehouse receipts is low. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - **LPG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both decreased, OPEC + has unexpectedly increased production, the combustion and chemical demand for LPG is in the seasonal off - season, and the spot price decline is slow, so the PG price still has room to fall [1]. **Shipping** - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: There is a pattern of stable current situation and weak future expectations. The freight rate is expected to reach its peak in mid - July, showing an arc - top trend, and the peak - reaching time is advanced. The subsequent weeks will have sufficient capacity deployment [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) highlights the significant growth and optimization of the Swap Connect since its launch in May 2023, with monthly transaction volumes increasing from 50 billion RMB to 380 billion RMB by May 2025, representing a 660% growth [1][2]. Group 1: Trading Scale and Growth - The Swap Connect officially launched on May 15, 2023, with only 22 offshore investors participating and a transaction volume of 50 billion RMB in the first month [2]. - By April 2025, the total value of onshore fixed-income products held by international investors reached 4.4 trillion RMB, a 10% increase from the previous year [2]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the number of offshore investors participating in the Swap Connect exceeded 80, with a monthly transaction volume of 380 billion RMB in May 2025, far exceeding initial expectations [2][3]. Group 2: Market Optimization and Future Prospects - Since its inception, the Swap Connect has undergone continuous optimization, including the expansion of eligible collateral and the extension of the maximum remaining term for interest rate swap contracts from 10 years to 30 years [4]. - The HKEX anticipates further product expansions, including the introduction of interest rate swap contracts referencing the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets for offshore investors [4][5]. - The Swap Connect has become the preferred tool for offshore investors to hedge interest rate risks, with a notable shift from the NDIRS (offshore RMB interest rate swap) market to the Swap Connect market [6][7]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Demand - The increasing interest from international investors in RMB interest rate swaps has led to a demand for improved infrastructure and product offerings within the Swap Connect [8]. - Recommendations include expanding transaction limits and diversifying product types to meet the growing needs of offshore investors [8].

| | | | | | | | 发布日期: 2025/07 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | W 分格号: F025 V 行业板块 | | 品种 | | 趋势研判 | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | | | | 短期内,市场成交量逐步小幅萎缩,加上国内外利多因素平平, | | | | | | 股指 | | | 股指向上突破存在阻力,或呈现震荡格局,后续关注宏观增量信 息对股指方向的指引。C | | | | 宏观金融 | | 国债 | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | | Fift | 震荡 | | 空间。 市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为主,关注关税进展。G | | | | | | 白银 | 農汤 | | 关税不确定性仍存,银价料震荡为主。 | | | | | | 월미 | 看答 | | 美国非农大超预期,打压降息预期,叠加海外挤仓风险有所降 温,铜价存在回调风险。 | | | | | | | | | 美联储降息预期降温,叠加高价压制下游需求,铝价存在回落风 | | ...

要理解国债基金的风险，得先搞清楚它为什么被视为"安全资产"。简单来说，国债基金就是专门投资国债的基金，而国债是政府以国家信用为担保发行的债 券。就像你借钱给邻居可能担心他还不上，但借钱给马云（假设）肯定更放心——国债的发行主体是国家，理论上违约风险极低。 这种"国家背书"的特性让国债基金成为保守型投资者的心头好。数据显示，2022年我国国债发行规模突破7万亿元，其中相当一部分通过基金渠道进入市 场。银行理财经理常说："国债基金是资产配置的压舱石"，这话不无道理——它确实能提供稳定的利息收入，市场波动时还能起到缓冲作用。 "国债基金是不是完全没风险啊？"最近朋友小王拿着手机问我，他看到某平台宣传"国债基金年化4%，保本保息"的广告有点心动。这让我想起上周在银行网 点，一位阿姨非要把定期存款全转成国债基金，工作人员劝了半小时都没用。国债基金真的像大家想象的那样"稳赚不赔"吗？今天咱们就掰开揉碎聊聊这个 话题。 但要注意的是，国债基金≠国债本身。就像你买黄金首饰和投资金条是两码事，国债基金通过专业机构运作，会涉及管理费、托管费等成本，这些都会影响 最终收益。更重要的是，基金经理的操作策略、市场环境变化等因素，都会让 ...

金十数据整理：每日全球外汇市场要闻速递（7月8日） 美元： 1. 美联储研究报告警示：经济前景不明或再现零利率风险。 2. 美联储主席热门候选人沃什：应降息至更低水平。 主要非美货币： 9. 澳大利亚财长：澳洲联储维持利率不变的决定并非数百万澳大利亚人所期望的，也不是市场所预料的 结果。澳洲联储已明确了通胀和利率的未来走向。 其它： 4. 日本首相：美方公布的关税信息令人遗憾，将继续进行谈判。 5. 韩国贸易部长：延长三周关税暂停时间不足以完成谈判，必须加快谈判进程。 6. 日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：与美国商务部长卢特尼克达成一致，将积极参与贸易谈判。我们正在以 国家利益为重进行谈判，因此不考虑等到上议院选举结束再行动。 7. 澳洲联储意外将基准利率维持在3.85%不变。澳洲联储表示，可以再等待一些信息，以确认通胀率有 望在可持续的基础上达到2.5%。 8. 澳洲联储主席布洛克：采取谨慎逐步的宽松立场是适当的。对未来进一步降息充满信心。此次会议存 在激烈的讨论，双方的分歧并不在于政策方向。我们正处于宽松路径上，关键问题在于何时实施。 1. 欧洲央行管委森特诺：进一步降息的幅度和时机很难说。 2. 惠誉：预计到 ...

交易规模远超预期 2023年5月15日，互换通正式启航，金融市场互联互通自债券通以来进一步扩展至衍生品领域。彼时，参与的 离岸投资者仅有22家，启动当月的月成交金额也不过500亿元。 转眼两年时间过去，随着各项机制不断优化和创新，互换通交易量平稳增长，海外投资者不断扩容。根据中国 人民银行的统计数据，截至2025年4月，国际投资者持有的在岸固定收益产品总值达人民币4.4万亿元，较一年 前增加了10%。 截至2025年第一季度，参与互换通的离岸投资者数目已超过80家，2025年5月的月成交金额高达3800亿元，相 比两年前增长660%，日均结算金额现在也达到250亿元，"远超最初预期"。 港交所数据显示，截至2025年5月，互换通成交金额约占中国境内利率互换产品市场的8%。 7月7日晚间，港交所在最新的观点中透露，自2023年启动以来，互换通持续优化，每月成交金额也由2023 年5月的500亿元（人民币，下同）升至2025年5月的3800亿元，增长660%。"互换通开通后这两年来持续优 化升级，充分体现国际投资者对互换通这一重要投资渠道的认可和强劲需求。随着人民币国际化步伐加 快，市场需求预计将增长。"港交所称 ...

男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普向14国发出关税信函，对等关税暂缓期延长至8月1日 美联储主席热门候选人沃什：美联储应降息至更低水平 美联储研究报告警示：经济前景不明或再现零利率风险 加沙停火各方仍未能达成一致 胡塞武装自去年12月以来首次袭击红海商船 消息人士：欧佩克+将批准9月再次大幅增产约55万桶/日 欧洲股指涨跌不一，德国DAX30指数收涨1.2%；英国富时100指数收跌0.19%；欧洲斯托克50指数收涨1%。 港股三大指数早盘低开下探，盘中有所回升。截至收盘。恒生指数收跌0.12%，恒生科技指数收涨0.25%，国企指数收跌0.01%。加密货币概念股大幅走强， 国泰君安国际(01788.HK)涨超10%；内房股持续修复，新城发展(01030.HK)、融创中国(01918.HK)均涨超4%；电力股表现俱佳，大唐发电(00991.HK)涨超 4%；除此以外，新消费、教育、养老、中资券商等概念股收涨。奶制品股表现不佳，中国飞鹤(06186.HK)跌超17%；生物医药、有色金属、黄金、电 ...

1. 中国央行连续第8个月增持黄金。 2. 习近平在阳泉考察制造业企业发展。 3. 国产DRAM内存芯片大厂长鑫存储启动上市辅导。 4. 发改委等四部门：到2027年底，力争全国范围内大功率充电设施超过10万台。 5. 特朗普称要对与金砖国家加征10%关税，中方回应：我们一贯反对搞关税战、贸易战。 6. 上期所就燃料油等3个期权合约公开征求意见，加速推进成熟期货品种期权全覆盖。 1. 俄外长：俄方愿为伊朗提供浓缩铀贫化服务。 2. 胡塞武装自去年12月以来首次袭击红海商船。 3. 美联储主席热门候选人沃什：应降息至更低水平。 4. 加沙停火谈判首轮会议结束，各方未能达成一致。 5. 特斯拉盘中跌逾8%，马斯克组建新党引发投资者担忧。 6. 美联储研究报告警示：经济前景不明或再现零利率风险。 7. 消息人士：欧佩克+将批准9月再次大幅增产约55万桶/日。 8. 马斯克：将在太平洋时间周三晚上8点直播Grok 4的发布。 9. 白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗呼吁美联储理事会对鲍威尔的立场采取干预措施。 7. 外汇管理局：截至2025年6月末，我国外汇储备规模为33174亿美元，较5月末上升322亿美元。 国际新闻： 10. ...

美联储研究报告警示：经济前景不明或再现零利率风险 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 金十数据7月8日讯，纽约联储与旧金山联储联合发布的最新研究报告指出，尽管当前短期借贷成本处于 相对高位，但未来数年美联储短期利率目标再度逼近零水平的可能性依然存在。这份由纽约联储主席威 廉姆斯参与撰写的报告显示，美联储利率目标回归超低水平的中长期风险"目前处于过去十五年观察区 间的低端"。但研究人员补充道，由于近期不确定性攀升，中期至长期内重返近零利率的可能性"仍然显 著"。 ...