新华财经贵阳9月25日电（记者肖艳）记者从贵州省政府新闻办25日召开的新闻发布会上获悉，今年1至 7月，贵州省新发放企业贷款加权平均利率为3.64%，同比下降0.45个百分点。 人民银行贵州省分行信贷政策管理处副处长邓飞介绍，人民银行贵州省分行积极落实相关部署和工作安 排，不断优化对民营经济的金融资源配置，持续提升对民营经济的金融支持力度和服务水平。截至7月 末，贵州省支农支小再贷款、再贴现余额共计782.55亿元，已实现对贵州88个县（市、区）的政策全覆 盖；民营经济贷款余额为9051.24亿元，同比增长6.16%，高于同期各项贷款余额增速0.96个百分点。 此外，还依托动产融资服务设施，持续拓宽民营企业融资渠道。持续推广动产融资统一登记公示系统和 应收账款融资服务平台，指导金融机构聚焦重点和特色产业，进一步拓宽抵质押品范畴，盘活动产资 源，创新推出"黔林贷""取水权""碳票贷"等金融产品与服务，探索推出"竹链贷""辣链贷"等供应链融资 产品。2021年以来，动产融资统一登记公示系统新增登记10.10万笔，查询44.45万笔，注册用户1926 个；应收账款融资服务平台新增融资1.23万笔，融资金额4871. ...

截至2025年8月底，统一登记系统累计发生登记5327.8万笔、查询2.9亿次，年均增长率分别达29%、 30%，纳入统一登记范围的七大类业务中，融资租赁、保理/应收账款转让及应收账款质押3类业务占比 近90%，服务中小微企业和个人（含个体工商户）约1848.4万家，涉及登记5120.3万笔，占累计登记总 量的96%，银行业动产融资单笔金额100万元以下的登记量占比超过50%，100万元至500万元区间的登 记量占比超过20%。 自2021年实施动产和权利担保统一登记以来，我国动产融资市场发展迅速。动产抵质押物范围持续扩 大，特色化创新金融产品频出，统一登记和查询已成为动产融资业务风险防范的核心环节。经营主体对 统一登记系统服务场景的拓展和灵活响应提出更高要求。李连三表示，基于这些考虑，征信中心顺应市 场需求，全面优化统一登记系统服务能力和用户体验，新一代统一登记系统已于2025年6月2日正式对外 提供服务。 与此同时，统一登记系统在促进动产融资市场健康规范发展、保障交易安全等方面也发挥了积极作 用。"动产融资市场的高质量发展有赖于法治的保障、政策的支持和经营主体的协同配合。"李连三说， 统一登记系统作为我国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "volatile" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the overall stock market remains bullish, but attention should be paid to the risks of some over - rising companies during the interim report season. Although there are fundamental pressures in the short term, the stock market does not price them more. After Powell's dovish speech, the expectation of loose liquidity may further boost risk appetite, and the bullish pattern of the stock index will be maintained in the short term [3][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - week View and Overview of Macro Key Events 3.1.1 Next - week View - The overall stock market remains bullish in the short term, but attention should be paid to the performance of interim reports. The Shanghai Composite Index has reached the third - highest level in history, and the trading volume has reached an average daily level of 2.5 trillion yuan. The "bull market expectation" has gained more consensus. Powell's dovish speech may boost risk appetite, but risks of over - rising companies during the interim report season should be noted [3][11] 3.1.2 This - week Key Event Concerns - **August 18th**: The central bank aims to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market; the China Index Academy reported that in July, the second - hand housing price dropped by 0.77% month - on - month; the State Council emphasized measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market [12][13][14] - **August 19th**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year; Shanghai's private enterprises' exports increased significantly; the central bank added 100 billion yuan in re - loans for supporting agriculture and small businesses [15][17][18] - **August 20th**: The LPR remained unchanged in August; the national leaders emphasized promoting major projects such as the Yaxia Hydropower Project and the Sichuan - Tibet Railway [19][20] - **August 21st**: The total electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%; 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments are expected to be implemented [21][23] - **August 22nd**: The national leaders will attend relevant activities of the SCO Summit; the State Council executive meeting heard a report on the implementation of equipment renewal and consumer goods replacement policies [24][25] 3.2 One - week Market Quotes Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From August 18th to 22nd, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 0.34%, with developed markets (+0.44%) > frontier markets (-0.24%) > emerging markets (-0.46%). The Swiss stock market led the world with a 2.14% increase, while the Taiwanese stock market had the worst performance with a 4.93% decline [2][26] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - Chinese equity assets rose significantly. A - shares > Chinese concept stocks > Hong Kong stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.588 trillion yuan, an increase of 485.8 billion yuan from last week. Most indices rose by more than 3%, with the STAR 50 rising 13.31% and the SSE 50 rising 3.38% [2][29] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most GICS primary industries in the global market rose, with the energy sector leading (+2.16%) and the information technology sector performing poorly (-1.62%). In the Chinese market, the information technology sector led the rise (+8.68%), and the real estate sector lagged (+0.75%) [33] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries - Among A - share CITIC primary industries, 30 rose (22 last week) and 0 fell (8 last week). The leading industry][ was communication (+10.47%), and the industry that underperformed the most was real estate (+0.98%) [34] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles - The large - cap growth style was dominant. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the market - cap style favored large - caps [39] 3.2.6 Overview of Stock Index Futures Basis - Relevant charts show the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [43][44] 3.3 Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview 3.3.1 Broad - based Index Valuation - Valuation data of various broad - based indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 100, etc., including PE, PB, and their changes during the year are presented [46] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - Valuation data of various primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc., including PE, PB, and their changes during the year are presented [47] 3.3.3 Equity Risk Premium of Broad - based Indices - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 declined rapidly this week [48][53] 3.3.4 Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast of Broad - based Indices - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 7.90%, and in 2026, it was adjusted up to 8.20%; for the CSI 500, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted up to 32.41%, and in 2026, it was adjusted up to 16.68%; for the CSI 1000, the 2025 expected earnings growth rate was adjusted up to 41.82%, and in 2026, it was adjusted down to 18.04% [54] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year and 1 - year bond yields rose, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 97.7, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.17 [62] 3.4.2 Tracking of Trading - type Funds - The average daily northbound trading volume increased by 66.8 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 83.2 billion yuan [65] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There are 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 1 billion shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 760 million shares, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 80 million shares, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 2.4 billion shares [67][68][70] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply Side - The coking start - up rate rebounded [73] 3.5.2 Consumption Side - Real estate transactions remained sluggish, but the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $68 per barrel [81][89] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation - The price of production materials rebounded from a low level, while agricultural product prices reached a new low for the year [91][92]

Core Insights - The overall scale of the movable property financing market in China is approximately 15 trillion yuan, with the People's Bank of China planning to enhance policy support to stimulate market vitality [1] Group 1: Market Overview - As of June 30, 2025, the unified registration and public announcement system for movable property financing has registered a total of 152,000 users, including banks and various financial institutions, covering all existing guarantors engaged in movable property financing [3] - The number of guarantors served is nearly 18 million, primarily consisting of small and micro enterprises, including individuals and sole proprietorships [3] Group 2: Utilization and Policy Support - A significant amount of movable resources in China remains idle, with the utilization rate still below international levels. The next steps include enhancing policy support to improve the utilization rate of movable property, optimize resource allocation, and increase financing accessibility for small and micro enterprises [5] - Movable property financing is becoming an essential financing method, particularly for small and micro enterprises facing financing challenges. An increasing number of movable assets and rights are being utilized in guarantee businesses, including agricultural assets, green financing assets, and new types of movable property guarantees such as data assets and renewable energy credits [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the futures market on August 18, 2025, and forecasts the market trends on August 19, 2025. It also provides macro - economic news and commodity - related information. The A - share market showed a strong upward trend on August 18, and most futures contracts have specific trend expectations for August 19, including strong, weak, wide - range, and consolidation trends [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Trends Forecast for August 19, 2025 - **Strong - trending Contracts**: IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509, FG601, M2601 are expected to be strong - trending. For example, IF2509 has resistance levels at 4275 and 4300 points, and support levels at 4238 and 4226 points [2][5][8]. - **Weak - trending Contracts**: T2509, TL2509, AU2510, AG2510, CU2509, AO2601, SI2511, V2601, MA601 are expected to be weak - trending. For instance, AU2510 has support levels at 773.3 and 767.0 yuan/gram, and resistance levels at 777.3 and 781.2 yuan/gram [3][4][6]. - **Wide - range - trending Contracts**: PS2511, LC2511, JM2601, SA601, SC2510 are expected to have wide - range trends. For example, PS2511 has resistance levels at 53700 and 55300 yuan/ton, and support levels at 51200 and 50200 yuan/ton [4][5][6]. - **Consolidating Contracts**: AL2510, RB2510, HC2510, I2601, TA601 are expected to consolidate. For example, AL2510 has support levels at 20540 and 20470 yuan/ton, and resistance levels at 20640 and 20700 yuan/ton [3][5][6]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - The Chinese government emphasizes enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, stabilizing market expectations, and promoting consumption and investment. The real - estate market is expected to stop falling and stabilize [9]. - The US, Ukraine, and other countries have political and economic events, such as the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, and the potential trilateral talks among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Ukraine may purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US and sign a $50 billion drone cooperation production agreement [10]. - The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech [10]. 3.3 Commodity - related Information - On August 18, 2025, due to geopolitical risks, the prices of US and Brent crude oil futures rose. The US crude oil main contract rose 0.97% to $62.58/barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract rose 0.97% to $66.49/barrel [11]. - International precious metal futures closed with mixed results. COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00/ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07/ounce [11]. - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum fell 0.71% to $2588.50/ton, LME zinc fell 0.39% to $2784.00/ton, and LME copper fell 0.22% to $9752.00/ton [12]. 3.4 A - share Market Performance on August 18, 2025 - The A - share market showed a strong upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.84%, and the North - bound 50 Index rose 6.79%, hitting a new high [15][16]. - The market turnover reached 2.81 trillion yuan, higher than the previous day's 2.27 trillion yuan. The A - share market was driven by various types of funds, including hot money, leveraged funds, private funds, institutional funds, and retail funds [16]. - The number of new accounts opened at securities brokerage departments increased, with the year - on - year increase in new customers generally ranging from 30% to 50% [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - Long - term, the bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained a "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy and there is high tariff uncertainty. But short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect since late June has put pressure on the bond market, and the short - term rebound of the bond market is unlikely to form a trend. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: A - shares hitting new highs suppressed the bond market, with treasury bond futures falling across the board and long - end bonds experiencing larger declines. The yields of 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds approached the 2.0% and 1.8% thresholds respectively [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with long - end yields rising significantly by 4 - 6bp. As of 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.785%, up 4bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank increased its investment to offset tax - period disturbances, and the inter - bank funding market tightened marginally. There were 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 154.5 billion yuan. Short - term funding rates rose, while medium - and long - term funding remained stable [10] - **Conclusion**: The long - term bull - market foundation of the bond market remains unchanged, but short - term pressure exists. It is recommended to maintain the strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds and pay attention to the central bank's investment during the tax - period this week [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Deputy Governor of the People's Bank of China, Zou Lan, stated that policy support will be strengthened to stimulate the vitality of the movable property financing market, which is important for small and medium - sized enterprises and the diversification of the financial market [13] - On the evening of August 17, Eastern Time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Washington, and on the afternoon of August 18, Eastern Time, he was scheduled to meet with US President Donald Trump [13] - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, promote a reasonable recovery of prices, and use structural monetary policy tools [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Data on trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on August 18, including settlement prices, trading volumes, and open interest, were provided [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and other money - market data were presented [28][29] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [32]

Group 1 - The total scale of ETFs has increased by 1.04 trillion yuan this year, reaching 4.77 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.88% [1] - Over 2000 equity funds have achieved historical net value highs, with more than 96% of equity funds generating positive returns this year [1] - The number of brokerages applying for fund custody licenses has dropped from 7 to 1 due to increased regulatory requirements [1] Group 2 - The bond market is under pressure, with significant declines in government bond futures and rising long-term yields, leading to a challenging investment environment [2] - More than 66% of A-share companies reported net profit growth in their semi-annual reports, with notable performances from leading firms [2] Group 3 - The personal consumption loan subsidy policy will be implemented soon, but banks are maintaining consumer loan rates above 3% [3] - The new energy vehicle subsidy review shows that Beijing New Energy has received over 30% of the total subsidies, while BYD received less than 1% [4] Group 4 - The Chinese gaming market reached a scale of 290.84 billion yuan in July, with a year-on-year growth of 4.62% [4] - The total scale of the movable property financing market in China is approximately 15 trillion yuan, with ongoing efforts to enhance policy support [4] Group 5 - A successful test in artificial cavern gas storage technology has been achieved, marking a significant advancement in the compressed air energy storage industry [5] - Lixun Precision has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [8] - OFILM reported a net loss of 109 million yuan in the first half of the year, a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market developments. It indicates that the government is taking measures to boost the economy, and various markets are influenced by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. For the bond market, different research institutions have different outlooks, with some expecting a downward trend in interest rates, while others are cautious about short - term fluctuations [1][2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Macro Data** - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. Manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month. Non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July was 50.1%, also a decline from the previous month. Social financing scale in July was lower than the previous month and the same period last year. M1 and M2 growth rates increased in July compared to the previous month and the same period last year, while M0 growth decreased slightly. Financial institution RMB loans decreased in July. CPI was flat in July, and PPI remained negative. Fixed - asset investment growth slowed down, while social consumption and export and import growth showed positive trends [1]. **Commodity Investment** **Comprehensive** - The government aims to enhance macro - policy effectiveness, stimulate consumption, expand investment, and stabilize the real estate market. The central bank will boost the development of the movable - property financing market to support small and medium - sized enterprises. New futures and options contracts have been launched by the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2][3]. **Metals** - Geopolitical developments may ease tensions and reduce safe - haven demand. A company agreed to acquire gold and copper assets from BHP for $465 million. Peru's copper production increased by 7.1% in June. Some institutions raised the gold price target. Metal inventories at the London Metal Exchange generally decreased [4][5][6]. **Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals** - Some regions in Shandong plan to raise coke prices. The prices of coking coal and coke in the circulation field increased in early August. Glencore applied to include two copper projects worth over $13 billion in Argentina's investment incentive program [7]. **Energy and Chemicals** - Oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Citi expects Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe to potentially resume by the end of 2025, which affects its gas price forecast. Indonesia anticipates an increase in oil and gas production in 2026 [9]. **Agricultural Products** - The price of soybean meal increased in early August. The anti - subsidy investigation on EU dairy products was extended. There are developments in corn, wheat, and ethanol production, and Brazil's competition authority is investigating the "soybean suspension plan" [10]. **Financial News** **Open Market** - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan on August 18. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank carried out treasury cash management operations with a winning bid of 120 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.78% [12]. **Important News** - The government is committed to economic stability and market confidence. The trading association is investigating the misappropriation of debt - financing funds. There are various government bond operations, and the central bank signed a currency swap agreement with Thailand. There are international political developments and corporate bond - related events [13][14][15]. **Bond Market Review** - Bond yields generally rose, and bond futures prices fell. Different bond - related interest rates showed various trends, and overseas bond yields also had different movements. Some institutions have different outlooks on the bond market [17][18][22]. **Foreign Exchange Market** - The on - shore and offshore RMB showed different trends against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose, affecting other major currencies [21]. **Research Report Highlights** - Different institutions have different views on the bond market, including expectations of interest - rate decline, focus on structural policies, and suggestions on convertible bond investment [22][23][24]. **Today's Reminders** - Many bonds are scheduled to be listed, issued, and have payments on August 19 [25][26]. **Stock Market News** - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700 points, driven by various types of funds. The number of new accounts at securities brokerages increased, and there is an expected inflow of more funds into the A - share market. The Hong Kong stock market had mixed performance, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching the feasibility of adding a special voting channel for margin - trading accounts [27][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market has shown a strong upward trend, with multiple indices hitting stage - highs, and both domestic and international institutions are generally optimistic about the subsequent performance of the Chinese stock market [6]. - The global financial market is awaiting the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium, and different institutions have different expectations for Fed Chairman Powell's speech [8]. - The current slow - bull market in A - shares has entered the middle stage, with a structural rise, and investors should pay attention to the rhythm of investment and avoid chasing up and selling down [18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro - economic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real estate market [6]. - A - share market indices hit new highs, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing above 3700 points, and the total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan [6]. - Trump and Zelensky met at the White House, and there may be a trilateral meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine. Ukraine will purchase $100 billion worth of weapons from the US and sign a $50 billion drone cooperation production agreement [7]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on August 20 to introduce parade preparation work [7]. - Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the central bank proposed improving the legal system of movable property guarantee [7]. - The National Medical Insurance Work Symposium announced nine key tasks, including formulating a new payment - by - disease model and exploring centralized procurement after the agreement period [7]. - In the first half of the year, automobile dealers suffered serious losses in new - car business, and the outlook for 2025 is a slight increase or flat [8]. 2. Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanut market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to fluctuate slightly and show a downward trend in the long - term [10]. - On August 18, the sugar futures price rose, and considering the supply and demand situation, short - term long positions can be lightly established near the support level [10]. - Corn futures continued to be weak on August 18, and with a "double - weak" fundamental situation, existing short positions can be held, and new short positions can be established on rebounds [10]. - The spot price of live pigs was stable over the weekend, with a short - term upward trend, but the futures market is bearish [10]. - The spot price of eggs was stable with an upward tendency over the weekend, but the futures market may still decline to repair the basis [12]. - Cotton futures showed weak upward momentum, and with a supply - tight situation in the short - term and expected production increase in the long - term, the price may decline in the short - term [12]. 2.2 Energy and Chemicals - The domestic urea market price increased, and the futures price may fluctuate within the range of 1700 - 1800 yuan/ton [12]. - The price of caustic soda rose, and with the approaching peak demand season, a bullish trading strategy is recommended [12]. - The price of coking coal and coke fluctuated, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game [13]. 2.3 Industrial Metals - The price of copper may continue to oscillate, and the price of aluminum is expected to adjust at a high level [13]. - The supply of alumina increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - The price of steel products may fluctuate, with short - term adjustment pressure and medium - term upward momentum [13]. - The price of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range with a rising center of gravity [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures rose, and long positions can be established near the support level [15]. 2.4 Options and Finance - For stock index options on August 18, the A - share market was strong, and different trading strategies are recommended for trend and volatility investors [16]. - In the short - term, for stock indices, attention should be paid to reducing positions in high - valuation and high - deviation indices. The current A - share market is in a slow - bull market, and low - buying opportunities can be sought during sharp declines [17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Economy**: China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting consumption and investment. The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. In the domestic real - estate market, the "price - for - volume" phenomenon persists in the second - hand housing market [5][6]. - **Macro - Finance**: For stock index futures, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips, and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry. For treasury bond futures, the curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term [8][9]. - **Black Metals**: The policy for the black metal industry is expected to be milder, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel and ore prices will likely remain volatile, while coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For ferroalloys, it is advisable to hold previous short positions [11][13][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand. Lithium carbonate prices will be supported by tightened fundamentals in the short term. Industrial silicon prices will fluctuate, and polysilicon prices will have wide - range oscillations [18][19][20]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton prices will be affected by both short - term supply - demand tightness and long - term production increase pressure. Sugar prices are constrained by expected supply increases. Egg prices are likely to be weak in the short term, and apple prices can be operated with a light - position positive spread strategy [21][25][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are likely to be weak due to expected supply increases. Fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG prices will follow the trend of crude oil. Plastics, methanol, and other chemical products are expected to have weak oscillations [36][37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulating consumption, and promoting investment. Trump meets with Zelensky, and the market awaits the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The second - hand housing market in China shows a "price - for - volume" trend, with prices falling [5][6]. 3.2 Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a nearly 10 - year high. The strategy is to go long on dips in the long - term and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term. The money market is tight during the tax period, and the bond market is under pressure from the stock market. Inflation requires both expectation management and fundamental support [9]. 3.3 Black Metals Overall Situation - Policy is expected to be milder, and supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Seasonal demand is weak, but futures - cash arbitrage is active. Exports may be affected after mid - September [11]. Steel and Ore - Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel mill profits vary. Steel and ore prices will likely maintain a volatile trend, and the spot market trading is generally weak [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors. It is advisable to short on rebounds [14]. Ferroalloys - The double - silicon futures market has seen a partial release of liquidity. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and pay attention to structural trading opportunities [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and the glass market is weak [16]. ，3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and processing fees are rising. Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are tightening, and the price will be supported in the short term, showing a strong - side oscillation [19]. Industrial Silicon - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to decline due to the resumption of polysilicon production. The price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [20]. Polysilicon - The policy progress dominates the price fluctuations. The supply - demand contradiction is still relatively loose, and the price will have wide - range oscillations [21]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Cotton - In the short term, cotton prices will be supported by low inventory, but there are concerns about consumption. In the long term, there is pressure from increased production [21][23]. Sugar - The expected increase in supply will suppress sugar prices. Domestically, the import of sugar is increasing, and attention should be paid to the holiday stocking demand [25][26]. Eggs - The egg market has a large supply pressure, and the price of far - month contracts may decline to repair the high valuation. The price may rise seasonally in the short term, but the increase is limited [28][29]. Apples - It is advisable to operate with a light - position positive spread strategy. The price of early - maturing apples varies by quality, and the new - season apple price may be related to the early - maturing and old - season apple prices [30]. Corn - It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies and go long on the starch profit. The corn market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures [31]. Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot price of red dates in the Hebei market is stable, and the number of warehouse receipts has changed [32]. Pigs - It is advisable to be cautiously bearish on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy. The short - term spot price will likely oscillate at the bottom [33][34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply of crude oil is expected to increase, and the price is likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September [36]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The current oil price has no main - line logic, and the supply - demand assessment is bearish [37]. Plastics - The market sentiment for plastics is weakening, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options or have a slightly bearish allocation [37]. Rubber - The rubber market has no obvious short - term contradictions. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss and be cautious when chasing high prices [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices will likely continue to oscillate weakly due to port inventory accumulation. It is recommended to have a bearish oscillation strategy [40]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is supported, while the futures price may be at a discount to the spot price in the future [41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow the trend of crude oil. The asphalt market is in the off - season, and the inventory decline is slower than expected [42][43]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain will likely oscillate within a range. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on PX [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of LPG is expected to be weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is likely to decline in the medium - long term [45]. Pulp - The pulp market is affected by inventory accumulation, but there is support from the price of broad - leaf pulp. It is recommended to observe the port inventory and spot trading [47]. Logs - The log market is expected to oscillate. It is advisable to observe and conduct appropriate hedging on rallies [48]. Urea - The urea futures price will likely have wide - range oscillations due to the combination of bearish fundamentals and bullish sentiment [48].