黄金作为传统避险工具，在数字货币波动加剧背景下重现光芒。实物黄金配合 (02599.HK/N5B8R)、 (02599.HK/R2T9L) 等黄金 ETF 组合，既规避持仓风险，又保持流动性优势。技术面显示，当前金价在 1950 美元 / 盎司附近形成强支撑，与 (02599.HK/W7V3D)、(02599.HK/S4K8M) 等矿业股形成联动效 应。 组合构建策略建议采用 "核心 + 卫星" 架构：以 (02599.HK/D5F9G)、(02599.HK/3T8Q4) 等宽基指数产品 作为核心资产，配置权重不低于 50%；用 (02599.HK/Y6H2J)、(02599.HK/Z9L3K) 等行业轮动品种捕捉 超额收益；最后通过 (02599.HK/U1P5R)、(02599.HK/E4S8M) 等另类资产平抑波动。这种包含 (02599.HK/J7N2D)、(02599.HK/5G8T3) 等多资产标的的组合，回测显示近三年年化波动率较纯股组合 降低 38%。 随着 (02599.HK/A2B9C)、(02599.HK/6T8V1) 等跨境投资工具日益丰富，建议投资者保持动态再平衡， 每季度评估 (0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the 3700-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting it is a critical psychological barrier that influences market volatility and investor sentiment [4][6][11]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3731 points during the bull market from 2019 to 2021, and the current level of 3696.77 points is only 0.93% lower than that peak [4]. - Historical attempts to break through the 3700-point level have resulted in significant market fluctuations, indicating a strong resistance at this level [9]. - The market's behavior around the 3700-point mark reflects a cautious attitude among investors, who are wary of potential downturns [4][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that whether to increase or decrease positions at the 3700-point level depends on individual market outlooks; those believing it is the start of a new bull market should consider adding positions, while those seeing it as a peak should reduce exposure [5][8]. - Establishing an investment strategy that accommodates high volatility is crucial, with a recommended approach being a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income [11][15]. - A half-position strategy (50% equities and 50% fixed income) is proposed as a way to manage risk and opportunity effectively, allowing for adjustments based on market movements [14][15]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The article advocates for a dynamic rebalancing approach, suggesting that when equity exposure exceeds a certain threshold (e.g., 55%), investors should reduce their positions to maintain balance [16][18]. - The author has implemented this strategy multiple times, currently holding a ratio of 53.60% equities to 46.40% fixed income, indicating a proactive approach to managing portfolio risk [20]. - The goal of dynamic rebalancing is not necessarily to enhance returns but to reduce volatility and maintain investor comfort [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the index reaching 3700 points, a level not seen in four years, and the mixed performance of different types of funds amidst this bull market [2][3]. Market Performance - The year-to-date return of the equity mixed fund index has reached 20%, indicating a positive trend for actively managed equity funds [5]. - Despite a 45% rebound from the low in February 2024, the equity mixed fund index remains 26% below its historical high in February 2021, suggesting that many investors who entered at that peak are still at a loss [5]. - Investors employing a systematic investment plan (SIP) or averaging down during market dips have experienced significantly lower floating losses, with some even realizing gains [5]. Index Analysis - The article notes that there is a significant disparity in performance among different indices, with some sectors showing signs of overheating while others remain relatively stable [6]. - A table is provided detailing various indices, their price-to-earnings ratios, and performance metrics over different time frames, indicating which indices may still offer investment opportunities [8]. Investor Strategies - Different strategies are recommended based on the current status of investors' portfolios: - For those with high profits, a two-step strategy is suggested: lock in profits through partial redemptions and reassess holdings based on long-term performance [10]. - Investors who have just returned to break-even should evaluate asset valuations and consider reducing exposure if nearing high valuation levels [11]. - For those still waiting to recover losses, assessing the quality of holdings is crucial, with recommendations to buy on dips if the funds are fundamentally sound [12]. - New or cautious investors are advised to start with low-volatility products and gradually build positions in equity funds, emphasizing diversification [13]. Market Outlook - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market cycles and the potential for continued upward movement in certain sectors, despite the inherent volatility [25][26]. - It concludes with a reminder that while bull markets will eventually end, maintaining a disciplined approach will help investors remain in the market through various cycles [27].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a solution to the challenges faced by investors, advocating for a structured approach to investment through the "Snowball Three-Point Method" which focuses on diversification and long-term strategies [3][6]. Group 1: Investment Challenges - Many investors fall into common traps such as believing they can time the market perfectly, leading to poor decision-making and losses [5]. - Data indicates that most investors fail to outperform the funds themselves, not due to poor fund selection, but because they struggle to hold onto their investments [5]. Group 2: Snowball Three-Point Method - The core principle of the Snowball Three-Point Method is summarized in twelve words: "Do not predict, only respond, diversify investments, and win passively" [8]. - The method includes three types of diversification: asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification [9]. Group 3: Asset Diversification - Different asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities) have distinct return characteristics and low correlation, which helps in risk hedging [10]. - Historical correlation analysis from 2003 to 2023 shows that stocks, bonds, and commodities have low correlations, indicating the benefits of diversified asset allocation [11]. Group 4: Market Diversification - Global economic conditions lead to varying asset performance across different markets, which can further smooth out portfolio volatility [12]. - Correlation analysis from 2021 to 2024 shows that different global indices exhibit low to negative correlations, reinforcing the need for market diversification [13]. Group 5: Time Diversification - Regular investment through methods like dollar-cost averaging can mitigate the risks associated with market timing [14]. - Time diversification allows investors to achieve an average market cost over time, reducing the impact of volatility [15]. Group 6: Dynamic Adjustment and Rebalancing - Initial asset allocation should not be static; adjustments should be made based on changing asset performance and market conditions [16]. - Dynamic rebalancing helps maintain the original asset allocation ratios, facilitating a buy-low, sell-high strategy [17][18]. Group 7: Practical Implementation of the Three-Point Method - The implementation involves three steps: risk assessment to customize investment plans, selecting funds from a curated pool, and ongoing dynamic rebalancing [20][22][26]. - The article provides examples of asset allocation strategies for different risk profiles, illustrating how to construct a personalized investment portfolio [21]. Group 8: Half-Position Strategy - The half-position strategy balances market exposure and risk, allowing for flexibility in responding to market fluctuations [29]. - This strategy involves maintaining a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income, which helps manage both risk and opportunity [30]. Group 9: Specific Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended allocation includes 50% in fixed income (with a focus on domestic bonds), 45% in equities (with a mix of domestic and international), and 5% in commodities, primarily gold [32][34][35]. - The rationale for these allocations is based on current market conditions, expected returns, and risk considerations [33][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relevance of "Dollar-Cost Averaging" (DCA) in investment strategies, particularly in the context of the "Xueqiu Three-Part Method" which emphasizes asset, market, and timing diversification [6][30]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The "Xueqiu Three-Part Method" includes asset diversification (stocks, bonds, commodities), market diversification (A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks), and timing diversification (DCA) [6]. - The author has implemented a weekly DCA strategy and has made seven investments so far [7]. - The decision to set up DCA is more related to the investor's financial situation and risk tolerance rather than the characteristics of the investment itself [8]. Group 2: Perspectives on DCA - Different investors have varying opinions on whether high-volatility products are better suited for DCA or for swing trading [9][10]. - Some believe that stable products should be invested in through DCA, while others argue for lump-sum investments due to their long-term upward trends [11]. - The article emphasizes that the same investment can be approached differently based on individual investor perspectives [13]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The concept of "Dynamic Rebalancing" is introduced as a method to maintain the desired asset allocation over time, which is distinct from DCA [18]. - Dynamic rebalancing addresses the risk management aspect of the "Xueqiu Three-Part Method" by adjusting the asset mix back to the original allocation [19]. - The author posits that DCA primarily addresses psychological aspects of investing, helping investors manage their emotions during market fluctuations [20][29]. Group 4: Conclusion - There are no strict rules mandating the use of DCA; investors can choose to invest in a lump sum or in multiple smaller amounts [28]. - DCA and dynamic rebalancing can coexist, allowing for gradual investment followed by rebalancing after a set period [28]. - Ultimately, DCA is viewed as a tool for managing investor psychology rather than a method for maximizing returns [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of taking profits in investment, highlighting that without realizing gains, profits are not truly earned [3][4] - The article discusses the challenges of profit-taking, particularly in value investing, where investors struggle to determine when to sell, often leading to poor decision-making [5][8] - It introduces the concept of asset allocation as a solution to the difficulties of profit-taking, suggesting that diversifying investments across multiple asset classes can simplify decision-making [9][10] Group 2 - The article explains dynamic rebalancing as a strategy that allows investors to manage their portfolios without needing to make complex decisions about individual asset prices [10][12] - It outlines the benefits of dynamic rebalancing, stating that it can generate positive returns even in sideways markets by capturing price fluctuations between different assets [13] - The article provides methods for executing dynamic rebalancing, including time-based and price-based approaches, to maintain the desired asset allocation [16][18][20] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of effective diversification, recommending a mix of stocks, bonds, and commodities to enhance the chances of successful rebalancing [14] - It suggests that investors can utilize tools like the "three-part method" for asset allocation, which helps in assessing the correlation between different assets [14][24] - The article concludes by promoting the use of automated reminders and services to assist investors in maintaining their asset allocation strategy [20][24]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the advantages of DIY asset allocation for ordinary investors, suggesting that it can outperform actively managed funds and benchmark indices, as evidenced by a 6.23% return in the first half of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Advantages of DIY Asset Allocation - **Advantage 1: Unrestricted Investment Scope** DIY asset allocation allows investors to diversify across various asset classes without the constraints faced by mutual funds, which are limited by their contracts [5][6]. This flexibility enables investors to capitalize on different economic cycles and opportunities, such as stocks during economic upturns and bonds during downturns [8]. - **Advantage 2: Flexible Position Adjustment** Investors can adjust their asset allocation more freely compared to mutual fund managers, who face strict position limits. This flexibility allows for better risk management during market volatility [9][10]. - **Advantage 3: Aligned Interests** DIY investors do not face the same pressures as fund managers, such as short-term performance metrics and management fees tied to fund size. This allows for a focus on long-term investment strategies without the need to cater to market trends [11][12]. Group 2: Steps for Asset Allocation - **Step 1: Risk Assessment** The first step involves completing a risk assessment to determine the investor's risk tolerance, expected returns, and investment duration, which informs the optimal asset allocation [13]. - **Step 2: Create a Low-Correlation Asset Allocation Plan** A diversified portfolio should include assets with low correlation to mitigate risk. For example, a combination of bonds, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, US stocks, and gold can provide a balanced approach [15][18]. - **Step 3: Initiate Regular Investment** After establishing the asset allocation plan, investors should engage in regular investments (dollar-cost averaging) to minimize emotional decision-making and benefit from market averages [23][24]. - **Step 4: Dynamic Rebalancing** Investors can manage their portfolios more dynamically, taking advantage of price discrepancies among low-correlation assets. This involves selling overvalued assets and buying undervalued ones, facilitated by alerts for rebalancing [25][26]. Group 3: Additional Services - The article mentions that using the proposed asset allocation method provides additional services such as monthly reports, real-time asset diagnostics, and personalized support, enhancing the investment experience [29]. Group 4: Investment Philosophy - The "three-part method" promotes a philosophy of long-term investment and asset allocation, focusing on diversification across assets, markets, and timing to achieve a balanced risk-return profile [30].

风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 小玄fire计划 来源：雪球 市场曾给我三次痛击 ： 弯路一 ： 投机陷阱 2024年国庆 " 924行情 " 中 ， 被媒体渲染的 " 牛市 " 裹挟入场 ， 节后首日追高即深套 。 血 泪教训 ： 消息驱动的投机永远是击鼓传花的游戏 。 弯路二 ： 高估加仓 美股定投初期小赚后 ， 2024年9月起大额定投重仓投入 。 尽管标普500 、 纳指100持续高位 震荡 ， 仍盲目相信 " 长牛神话 " ， 直至2025年4月关税黑天鹅两日暴跌10%被迫割肉 。 警醒 ： 无视估值的安全边际就是悬崖边跳舞 。 弯路三 ： 伪分散之殇 指数化 →告别个股黑箱 ， 拥抱市场β收益 ； 攻守兼备 ： 15%A股红利低波+15%A股现金流指数 （ a股稳健资产 ） 全球对冲 ： 15%标普500+15%纳指100 （ 美股核心资产 ） 危机缓冲 ： 8%黄金ETF+2%原油期货 （ 抗通胀黑天鹅 ） 曾以为持有十几只基金就是分散风险 ， 结果持仓高度同质化 ， 暴涨暴跌如过山车 。 直到学习 资产相关性理论才顿悟 ： 真正的分 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies of asset allocation in the context of the high volatility of the A-share market, emphasizing the need for diversified investment approaches to mitigate systemic risks [1]. Group 1: Asset Allocation Strategies - The article highlights various classic asset allocation models, such as the 60/40 stock-bond portfolio and the all-weather portfolio, which have been historically validated but are limited in domestic application due to investment target restrictions [1]. - The Snowball app offers a "three-part method" for asset allocation, allowing users to conduct risk assessments and receive intelligent recommendations for asset class ratios, which can be manually adjusted [3][9]. Group 2: Performance and Timing Issues - The article notes that while historical returns and maximum drawdowns of asset allocation strategies may appear favorable, actual performance can differ significantly, as evidenced by a tracked portfolio yielding only 5.48% over a year [11]. - It emphasizes that expected returns are positively correlated with asset selection and holding time, while the timing of purchases significantly impacts short-term experiences and returns [12][13]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The concept of dynamic rebalancing is introduced as a method to maintain target asset ratios and manage risk actively, rather than merely chasing returns [23]. - Key aspects of dynamic rebalancing include mean reversion during market fluctuations, proactive risk management, and enhancing long-term return stability and holding experience [24][25][26]. - The Snowball platform provides reminders for when and how to rebalance, offering clear guidance and explanations for asset adjustments, thereby improving the investment experience [27].

咱们做投资，无论是自己搭配股票、债券，还是买了不同类型的基金，实际上都是在进行一定程度的"资产配置"。比如，你可能计划好了，一部 分资金追求高增长（像股票），一部分资金追求稳健（像债券）。但只要市场还在波动，随着时间的推移，你最初设定的这个资产配置比例，几乎 不可避免地会因为各类资产价格的涨跌而发生变化。 这个比例的变化，看着只是数字的调整，但它可能会悄然影响你的长期投资目标。 它让你的实际风险承受状况偏离了最初的设想。 比如，如果股市一路高歌，股票在你总资产中的占比就会越来越高，整个配置的风险也会随之提 升，可能超出了你当初愿意承担的范围。相反，如果股市低迷，股票占比降低，又可能让你错失未来市场回暖时的收益潜力。这种"风险漂移"是 我们希望避免的。 面对市场波动，如何保持纪律？ 市场的大涨大跌最容易考验人性。涨了怕踏空、跌了怕亏损，情绪一上来，很容易做出追涨杀跌的非理性决策， 反而可能侵蚀长期收益。 能不能把市场的"折腾"变成机会？ 市场波动虽然带来不确定性，但换个角度看，它也可能提供了"低买高卖"的机会。关键在于，我们有没有一套 系统的方法，能帮助我们相对客观地抓住这些机会，而不是凭感觉瞎猜。 今天，我们 ...