Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that in 2025, investing in mainstream indices yielded positive returns due to a favorable monetary policy environment, with significant gains in various asset classes, particularly gold and silver [2][4]. - Major global indices showed substantial growth, with the Hang Seng Index leading at 27.77%, followed by the Nikkei 225 at 26.18%, and the Shanghai Composite Index at 17.66% [5]. - Despite overall positive performance, there were notable fluctuations and risks throughout the year, including significant drawdowns in major indices due to various market events [11]. Group 2 - The investment landscape in 2025 was characterized by a structural shift towards technology and metals, with AI and advanced manufacturing sectors leading the market, while traditional sectors like coal and real estate lagged [13][14]. - Successful investing in 2025 required a diversified approach and the ability to select the right assets amidst rapid market rotations [15]. - Investor psychology played a crucial role in determining returns, with common pitfalls including emotional decision-making and mismanagement of market expectations [16][22]. Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, the article suggests that the prevailing low-interest-rate environment will continue to favor risk assets, encouraging investors to adopt a diversified investment strategy across various asset classes [24][25]. - The article highlights the importance of long-term investment strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging and dynamic rebalancing, to mitigate short-term market volatility and capture asset rotation opportunities [28].

以下文章来源于懒汉养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒汉养基 . 懒人养基小号【懒汉养基】。主号【懒人养基】专注于基金投资，小号【懒汉养基】则记录并小范围分享自己个人成长、投资理财、旅行旅居、读书休 闲、健身养生等方面的一些思考、感悟和经历。感兴趣的朋友欢迎关注。 ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：懒人养基 来源：雪球 2025年的日历快要翻完 ， 坐在电脑前翻了翻基金账户的申赎记录 ， 从2017年底第一次认真把基金投资当回事 ， 到现在已经过去整整八个年 头 。 这八年里 ， 实体生意从巅峰滑落到低谷 ， 股市从熊市涨到牛市又复回震荡 ， 我的投资策略也跟着市场周期和自身处境发生了不少变化 。 01 从 " 玩票 " 到 " 认真 " ， 从 " 满仓梭哈 " 到 " 半仓平衡 " 早在2000年前后就开始断断续续买过股票和基金 ， 甚至还做过股指期货交易 。 但那时候纯属 " 玩票 " —— 实体生意做得顺风顺水 ， 根本没 把股市投资这种朝不保夕的赚钱方式放在眼里 。 现在回头看 ， 那段 " 不上心 " 的经历也帮了 ...

对于广大投资者而言，如何在行业重构中保持稳健？基金是普通人获取投资收益的重要载体。如何买基金才能行稳致远？雪球财富陪伴官小雪、雪 球人气用户范范爱养基、雪球人气用户六亿居士，为大家带来主题为《这样买基金收益更稳定》的交流与分享。 上证指数重新站上4000点，很多人的第一反应是：牛市来了。 但今年最反常的地方恰恰在这儿：牛市里，照样有人赚不到钱，甚至亏钱。 市场并不缺机会：AI科技、黄金、海外市场都在轮动，投资工具也比过去更丰富，以及更体系化的资产配置方案正在普及。真正难的，是在情绪扩 张、热点加速、震荡反复的环境里，守住自己的安全边际和纪律。 在雪球嘉年华的这场对谈中，雪球财富陪伴官小雪与雪球人气用户范范爱养基、六亿居士围绕《这样买基金收益更稳定》展开交流： 这一次4000点和2015、2017年有什么本质不同？为什么"几乎所有亏钱的决策都发生在牛市"？普通投资者如何通过多元分散、动态再平衡，把收益 做得更稳定、更可持续？ 01 这次4000点有何不同 小雪 ：欢迎两位，今天准备了一些问题，期待和两位老师进行深度交流，希望今天对谈可以给球友新的启发和思考。聊到投资逃不开行情，今年的 行情是风雨兼程、跌宕起伏。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of building a robust asset allocation strategy that can withstand market fluctuations, rather than merely chasing high returns during a bull market [4][5]. Group 1: Understanding Market Behavior - In a bull market, investors often feel anxious about whether to chase opportunities or hold back, leading to a binary mindset [7][8]. - The most dangerous behavior in a rising market is to remain completely inactive, as this can erode purchasing power over time [10]. - The distinction between a professional investor and an emotional trader lies in having a clear financial goal and understanding one's risk tolerance [11]. Group 2: Risk Management - True risk in investing often stems from asset misallocation rather than market downturns [12][13]. - Investors must align their investment horizon with the lifecycle of their funds to avoid mismatches that can lead to financial strain [15][17]. - A well-structured investment portfolio should clearly indicate the purpose and timeline for each allocation, serving as a protective measure against risks [17]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategy - Asset allocation should be viewed as an art of harvesting rather than merely a defensive strategy [24]. - A successful asset allocation consists of a stable foundation ("keel") and a dynamic growth component ("sail") [25][26]. - Regularly rebalancing the portfolio by taking profits from high-performing assets and reallocating them to safer investments is crucial for maintaining balance [29][31]. Group 4: Conclusion and Reflection - The journey of investing is continuous, reflecting not only market dynamics but also personal emotions and decision-making processes [35][36]. - The ultimate goal of asset allocation is to create a financial order that allows for a more fulfilling life, rather than just maximizing returns [35].

Core Insights - The article discusses the growing importance of "fixed income +" products in a market characterized by declining interest rates and the shift towards net asset value management in bank wealth management [1][2] - It emphasizes the need for investors to understand the optimal equity-debt allocation and strategies to navigate market volatility for better investment experiences and returns [1] Group 1: Risk-Return Optimization - The management of "fixed income +" products requires a balance between risk and return, with a focus on understanding client expectations and market volatility [4][5] - Different products cater to varying risk appetites, with low and medium volatility products being more suitable for a broader range of investors [4][6] - A three-tiered drawdown warning mechanism is established to manage portfolio risks effectively, with ongoing optimization efforts [6][8] Group 2: Preserving Returns - In challenging equity market conditions, maintaining the returns of "fixed income +" products is crucial, with a focus on asset allocation and flexible investment styles [10][11] - The importance of a disciplined approach to position sizing and risk exposure is highlighted, particularly in low-volatility products [10][11] Group 3: Absolute Return Pursuit - Achieving absolute return targets has become increasingly difficult in a low-interest-rate environment, necessitating strong trading and timing skills from fund managers [12][13] - Risk budget management is employed to construct "fixed income +" portfolios within the constraints of current market conditions [12][13] Group 4: Growth Style Risk Control - The article discusses the necessity of combining asset allocation strategies with trading capabilities to navigate high-volatility markets effectively [14][15] - Identifying macroeconomic risks and structural market trends is essential for maintaining a favorable risk-return profile [15] Group 5: Market Evolution and Adaptation - The capital market landscape has changed significantly, with a systematic decline in asset yields and a shift in investor demographics impacting market dynamics [17][18] - Fund managers are adapting by broadening their research focus to include global markets and various asset classes [17][18] Group 6: Dynamic Rebalancing - Dynamic rebalancing is emphasized as a strategy for managing asset pricing and duration effectively, aiming for a balanced risk-return profile [19][20] - The gradual process of rebalancing is preferred to mitigate risks and smooth out returns over time [20] Group 7: Growth Style "Fixed Income +" - The article highlights a unique approach to "fixed income +" products that incorporate a growth style, aiming to provide stable returns while capitalizing on growth opportunities [21][22] - This strategy is designed to appeal to long-term investors seeking to benefit from societal development trends [22] Group 8: Combining Active and Quantitative Approaches - The integration of quantitative tools with fundamental research is becoming increasingly important for enhancing investment management processes [23][24] - The use of AI and data analytics is noted as a means to improve research efficiency and decision-making [24][25] Group 9: Low Turnover Alpha Sources - The article outlines a method for identifying companies with alpha potential across various industries, emphasizing the importance of aligning investment intentions with company types [26][27] - Continuous learning and industry insights are crucial for selecting companies that can deliver long-term value [27][28] Group 10: Forward-Looking Technology Layout - The focus on technology investments, particularly in AI, is highlighted as a strategic move to capitalize on emerging trends [30][31] - The need for ongoing evaluation of business models and cash flow generation capabilities in the tech sector is emphasized [31][32]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of maintaining a balanced stock-bond allocation and the strategy of dynamic rebalancing to optimize investment performance during market fluctuations [4][5][6]. Group 1: Stock-Bond Allocation - The simplest form of asset allocation is the stock-bond configuration, which should be based on individual risk tolerance and investment goals, such as a 60% stock and 40% bond allocation [5]. - Maintaining a predetermined stock-bond ratio is crucial to ensure participation in market upswings, referred to as "high moments," which are essential for capitalizing on bull markets [6][8]. Group 2: Dynamic Rebalancing - Dynamic rebalancing involves adjusting the stock-bond ratio back to its original allocation when market fluctuations cause significant deviations [8][9]. - The article suggests that a deviation of 10% in stock asset value should trigger rebalancing, as this aligns with historical annualized returns of broad market indices [27][29]. Group 3: Performance Analysis - Historical data indicates that since 2019, there have been 20 opportunities for dynamic rebalancing, averaging about three times per year, with 11 instances requiring profit-taking from equities and 9 instances necessitating buying into bonds [29]. - The article emphasizes that the primary benefit of dynamic rebalancing is not maximizing profits but smoothing out volatility and maintaining a consistent equity position to capture significant market gains [31][30]. Group 4: Practical Application - The article advocates for a systematic approach to stock-bond allocation and dynamic rebalancing, which is user-friendly and effective for average investors [32]. - It also highlights the importance of adjusting the stock-bond ratio based on market conditions, such as increasing equity exposure during bear markets and locking in profits during bull markets [31].

Core Insights - Wu Xiao is a unique fund manager with a background in actuarial science and a career that began in arbitrage, now excelling in active equity investment [1][4] - His investment approach emphasizes a mid-term perspective of 2-3 years, focusing on industry trends, business models, and competitive advantages [1][8] - Wu Xiao's investment strategy includes a systematic risk management framework across four levels: market, industry, style, and individual stocks [5][7] Investment Philosophy - Wu Xiao's investment methodology combines actuarial thinking with a Bayesian approach, creating a logical and systematic investment solution [1][4] - He emphasizes the importance of rebalancing, having successfully navigated market trends such as the small-cap stock boom and the leader stock bubble [1][5] - His investment strategy aims for a balanced portfolio with superior risk-adjusted returns, often ranking highly over 2-3 year periods [1][6] Background and Experience - Wu Xiao studied actuarial science and finance, starting his career in risk control before moving to proprietary investment, where he capitalized on arbitrage opportunities [4][6] - His transition to public fund management in 2016 allowed him to leverage his quantitative analysis skills and deep equity research capabilities [4][6] Risk Management - Wu Xiao's risk management framework includes maintaining a stable high position in equity funds to avoid frequent market timing, which is often ineffective for long-term excess returns [6][7] - He limits individual industry holdings to 15% to prevent over-concentration and reduce volatility [7] - His approach to dynamic rebalancing allows for adjustments based on asset class performance, aiming to maintain optimal risk-adjusted returns [11][13] Stock Selection Criteria - Wu Xiao's stock selection is influenced by the investment duration, focusing on sustainable business models for 2-3 year holds and assessing long-term viability for 5-10 year investments [8][9] - He prioritizes companies with stable competitive positions and the ability to generate good cash flow returns for shareholders [8][9] - Market conditions and a company's resilience during economic fluctuations are critical factors in his investment decisions [9][10] Market Dynamics - Wu Xiao identifies three main drivers of the current market: asset scarcity leading to increased interest in high-dividend stocks, improved market liquidity from corporate actions, and a supportive policy environment [15][16] - He believes that while the market has seen rapid gains, it is unlikely to enter a bubble phase similar to 2015, with a stable upward trend expected in the medium term [16]

Group 1: Market Overview - Investors are facing challenges from fluctuating inflation expectations, shifts in interest rate policies, and geopolitical changes as they approach the crossroads of the global market in 2025 [1] - Structural stocks represented by certain Hong Kong stocks are becoming important for balancing risk and return in investment portfolios [1] Group 2: Performance of Assets - Digital economy stocks have recorded a 45% increase this year, while traditional cyclical stocks show significant divergence in performance [1] - The recommendation is to establish a foundational position using cross-industry ETFs, complemented by individual stocks from specific sectors to enhance returns [1] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - With the Federal Reserve's policy rate reaching 5.25%, short-duration bonds are providing a yield protection of 3.8% [2] - Convertible bonds are highlighted for their unique value in a volatile market due to their hybrid characteristics of equity and debt [2] Group 4: Gold and Alternative Investments - Gold is regaining its status as a traditional safe-haven asset amid increased volatility in digital currencies, with physical gold and gold ETFs recommended for risk management and liquidity [2] - Current gold prices are showing strong support around $1950 per ounce, which is linked to mining stocks [2] Group 5: Portfolio Construction Strategy - A "core + satellite" strategy is suggested, with broad-based index products as core assets making up at least 50% of the portfolio [3] - Industry rotation products are recommended to capture excess returns, while alternative assets are advised to mitigate volatility [3] - The combination of various asset types has shown a 38% reduction in annualized volatility compared to a pure equity portfolio over the past three years [3] Group 6: Dynamic Rebalancing - Investors are encouraged to maintain dynamic rebalancing and assess risk exposure of holdings quarterly, especially in interest rate-sensitive assets [3] - Focus on duration-matched products to address potential policy shift risks is emphasized [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significance of the 3700-point level on the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting it is a critical psychological barrier that influences market volatility and investor sentiment [4][6][11]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a high of 3731 points during the bull market from 2019 to 2021, and the current level of 3696.77 points is only 0.93% lower than that peak [4]. - Historical attempts to break through the 3700-point level have resulted in significant market fluctuations, indicating a strong resistance at this level [9]. - The market's behavior around the 3700-point mark reflects a cautious attitude among investors, who are wary of potential downturns [4][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article suggests that whether to increase or decrease positions at the 3700-point level depends on individual market outlooks; those believing it is the start of a new bull market should consider adding positions, while those seeing it as a peak should reduce exposure [5][8]. - Establishing an investment strategy that accommodates high volatility is crucial, with a recommended approach being a balanced allocation between equities and fixed income [11][15]. - A half-position strategy (50% equities and 50% fixed income) is proposed as a way to manage risk and opportunity effectively, allowing for adjustments based on market movements [14][15]. Group 3: Dynamic Rebalancing - The article advocates for a dynamic rebalancing approach, suggesting that when equity exposure exceeds a certain threshold (e.g., 55%), investors should reduce their positions to maintain balance [16][18]. - The author has implemented this strategy multiple times, currently holding a ratio of 53.60% equities to 46.40% fixed income, indicating a proactive approach to managing portfolio risk [20]. - The goal of dynamic rebalancing is not necessarily to enhance returns but to reduce volatility and maintain investor comfort [21][22].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting the index reaching 3700 points, a level not seen in four years, and the mixed performance of different types of funds amidst this bull market [2][3]. Market Performance - The year-to-date return of the equity mixed fund index has reached 20%, indicating a positive trend for actively managed equity funds [5]. - Despite a 45% rebound from the low in February 2024, the equity mixed fund index remains 26% below its historical high in February 2021, suggesting that many investors who entered at that peak are still at a loss [5]. - Investors employing a systematic investment plan (SIP) or averaging down during market dips have experienced significantly lower floating losses, with some even realizing gains [5]. Index Analysis - The article notes that there is a significant disparity in performance among different indices, with some sectors showing signs of overheating while others remain relatively stable [6]. - A table is provided detailing various indices, their price-to-earnings ratios, and performance metrics over different time frames, indicating which indices may still offer investment opportunities [8]. Investor Strategies - Different strategies are recommended based on the current status of investors' portfolios: - For those with high profits, a two-step strategy is suggested: lock in profits through partial redemptions and reassess holdings based on long-term performance [10]. - Investors who have just returned to break-even should evaluate asset valuations and consider reducing exposure if nearing high valuation levels [11]. - For those still waiting to recover losses, assessing the quality of holdings is crucial, with recommendations to buy on dips if the funds are fundamentally sound [12]. - New or cautious investors are advised to start with low-volatility products and gradually build positions in equity funds, emphasizing diversification [13]. Market Outlook - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding market cycles and the potential for continued upward movement in certain sectors, despite the inherent volatility [25][26]. - It concludes with a reminder that while bull markets will eventually end, maintaining a disciplined approach will help investors remain in the market through various cycles [27].