2015—2025年，东吴证券研究所实现从区域性研究部门到全市场最佳研究机构前十的跨越式发展。 以"机制+人才"双轮驱动，锚定苏州及长三角产业禀赋，深耕"产业研究+资本服务"差异化路径，构 建多元服务生态并强化内部协同。十年深耕下，研究业务已成为东吴证券发展的重要引擎。站在新 起点，东吴证券研究所将持续锚定深度研究与市场定价核心能力，全力冲刺国内一流券商研究所目 标。 12月17日，2025证券时报最佳分析师获奖名单在苏州正式揭晓，东吴证券研究所凭借扎实的研究实力，再度交 出亮眼答卷。在团队奖项方面，东吴证券研究所斩获含金量十足的最佳研究团队SSR（Superior Super Research）第七名，"最佳北交所公司研究团队"排名跃升至第三名，四大产业研究领域全部跻身前十。细分赛 道的表现同样可圈可点：不仅蝉联"汽车和汽车零部件"行业研究榜首，还在新能源和电力设备、传播与文化、 环保、非银金融等热门领域稳居前三，宏观、机械、医药等行业也成功跻身前五，展现出全面且强劲的研究竞 争力。 这一成绩的取得，恰逢东吴证券研究所转型卖方研究十周年之际，可谓生动印证了其十年深耕带来的实力跃 迁。 2015年，东吴证券研 ...

www.leadleo.com 报告标签：区域经济、海南封关、要素流动、产业格局 报告提供的任何内容（包括但不限于数据、文字、图表、图像等）均系头豹研究院独有的高度机密性文件（在报告中另行标明出处者除外）。未经头豹 研究院事先书面许可，任何人不得以任何方式擅自复制、再造、传播、出版、引用、改编、汇编本报告内容，若有违反上述约定的行为发生，头豹研究 院保留采取法律措施、追究相关人员责任的权利。头豹研究院开展的所有商业活动均使用"头豹研究院"或"头豹"的商号、商标，头豹研究院无任何前述名 称之外的其他分支机构，也未授权或聘用其他任何第三方代表头豹研究院开展商业活动。 1 简报 | 2025/09 Chapter1 海南封关背景介绍 ❑ 海南自由贸易港封关政策通过扩大"零关税"范围、放宽贸易管 理、便利口岸通行和实施高效监管，全面降低制度性成本，促进要 素自由流动和产业升级，增强市场活力与开放水平 简报摘要 2025/09 目录 1.海南封关背景介绍 2.海南封关对要素流动的影响 www.leadleo.com 400-072-5588 ◼ 海南封关重要时间节点 ◼ 海南封关政策重点——"一线放开" ◼ 海南封关政 ...

中欧（中亚）班列驰骋不息。这条以轨为基、以贸兴业的"黄金通道"，正焕发出日益强劲的生机与活 力，成为中国与中亚各国深化合作、繁荣经济、增进文明的坚实纽带。 中欧班列在全国有西、中、东三条主要运行线路，其中西通道经新疆阿拉山口、霍尔果斯口岸出境，是 中国—中亚铁路运输的重要通道。中国铁路乌鲁木齐局集团有限公司介绍，今年前11个月，新疆双口岸 通行中欧（中亚）班列达1.6万列，同比增长7.6%，搭载的货物品类达200多种。 班列高效运行背后，是口岸通关能力的持续升级。在阿拉山口口岸，铁路部门预先制定编组方案，提前 备好空车和作业线路，对集中到达的集装箱等重点货物实行"快装快卸"模式，努力做到"车等货"；在霍 尔果斯，口岸启动"智慧铁路口岸+属地快速通关"改革，车辆周转效率提升了20%以上。 新疆中联海通国际货运代理有限公司业务负责人郭春雷表示，这几年企业的货物损耗、滞留费等各项成 本明显减少，今年又新增了6家中亚国家的长期合作伙伴。 冬日里，新疆霍尔果斯铁路口岸一片繁忙。一列满载电子产品、日用百货和汽车配件的中欧（中亚）班 列完成通关，鸣笛驶向哈萨克斯坦的阿拉木图；与此同时，在阿拉山口口岸，一列来自中亚的回程班列 ...

3. 产业创新与企业家精神 4. 区域经济与下沉市场 5. 国际视野下的经济合作 经济学家管清友简介 管清友是中国当代极具影响力的经济学家，现任如是金融研究院院长、首席经济学家，同时担任中国民营经济研究会副会长、华鑫证券首席经济顾问等职 务，并兼任美的集团、南华期货等多家上市公司独立董事。他拥有中国社会科学院经济学博士和清华大学博士后的学术背景，历任民生证券副总裁兼研究院 院长、中国海洋石油总公司宏观处处长等职，长期参与政策咨询与决策建议，在宏观经济、金融市场、能源安全等领域形成了兼具理论创新与实践价值的研 究体系。 管清友的研究成果多次获得学术与行业认可，曾获"中国青年金融学者奖"、"十大青年经济学人"等荣誉，其观点和分析常被国内外主流媒体引用，对政府决 策、企业战略及投资者决策产生深远影响。他著有《刀锋上起舞》《石油的逻辑》《新常态经济》等专著，其中《刀锋上起舞》系统分析中国经济转型期的 结构性矛盾，被誉为"中国经济风险预警的奠基之作"。 论坛演讲嘉宾管清友擅长主题方向 管清友作为资深经济学家，擅长结合宏观经济形势、金融市场动态及产业趋势，为论坛提供兼具学术深度与实践价值的演讲内容。其核心演讲主题方向包 ...

Core Insights - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai form a significant economic triangle in China, housing over 140,000 industrial enterprises, with a clear distribution of top companies emerging from recent rankings [1][12] Group 1: Jiangsu Province - Jiangsu's top 100 enterprises achieved a total revenue of 7.55 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year growth of 2.03% [1] - The total asset scale surpassed 14 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.04% [1] - The threshold for entering the list was set at 26.55 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1% from the previous year [1] - 19 companies entered the "billion revenue club," collectively generating 3.9 trillion yuan [1] - State-owned enterprises numbered 27, contributing 2.046 trillion yuan in revenue, a growth of 1.33% [1] - Private enterprises dominated with 73 entries, securing seven of the top ten spots and accounting for the top four positions [1] Group 2: Zhejiang Province - Zhejiang's top 100 enterprises reported total revenue of 11.14 trillion yuan, a 5.22% increase year-on-year, maintaining over 10 trillion yuan for three consecutive years [2] - Total profit reached 511.2 billion yuan, down 2.36% from the previous year [2] - The total asset value was 9.99 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.78% increase [2] - The entry threshold was 29.233 billion yuan, up 11.09% from last year [2] - 33 companies surpassed the billion revenue mark, contributing 7.8 trillion yuan, which is 70% of the total revenue [2] - Private enterprises accounted for 78 entries, contributing 78.60% of total revenue and 83.77% of total profit [2] Group 3: Shanghai Province - Shanghai's top 100 enterprises generated total revenue of 10.03 trillion yuan, a slight decline of 0.42% year-on-year [2] - The entry threshold was 10.73 billion yuan, an increase of 240 million yuan [2] - Net profit reached 665.57 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 24.84% [2] - There were 24 companies with revenues exceeding 1 billion yuan, collectively generating 7.28 trillion yuan, accounting for 72.58% of total revenue [2] Group 4: Comparative Analysis - Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai collectively showcase a robust economic landscape, with Jiangsu at 7.55 trillion yuan, Zhejiang at 11.14 trillion yuan, and Shanghai at 10.03 trillion yuan in total revenue [3] - The top companies in each region include Baowu Steel Group from Shanghai, Hengli Group from Jiangsu, and Alibaba Group from Zhejiang, with Alibaba leading at 996.3 billion yuan [3] - The revenue concentration among the top ten companies varies, with Shanghai having the highest concentration at 46%, followed by Zhejiang at 43.5%, and Jiangsu at 38% [5] Group 5: Regional Distribution - In Shanghai, top enterprises are concentrated in the Pudong New Area, which houses 38 companies, including 6 of the top ten [5][7] - Jiangsu's top companies are primarily located in Wuxi, Suzhou, and Nanjing, with Suzhou leading in revenue [7] - Zhejiang's enterprises are mainly concentrated in Hangzhou and Ningbo, with Hangzhou dominating the top rankings [9]

Macro Overview - The core viewpoint is that China's economy has significant growth potential in the medium to long term, with a stable macroeconomic total in 2025 but noticeable structural differentiation, requiring policy solutions for weak domestic demand in 2026 [2] - Price stability is crucial for growth, as price indicators are central to understanding changes in domestic demand [2] Investment Strategy - The "transformation bull market" in China is expected to continue, with the stock market entering a significant growth cycle starting in 2025, driven by capital market reforms and economic structural transformation [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index reaching 4000 points again is a significant milestone, with further upward potential anticipated [8] - The underlying logic of the Chinese stock market is shifting, with three core factors that previously led to valuation discounts now being dismantled: improved confidence in handling US-China risks, a return to economic construction focus, and the end of the renminbi asset contraction cycle [8][9] Sector Analysis - Urbanization as a growth driver is fading, with reform and transformation becoming the primary focus [9] - The three main drivers of the "transformation bull market" include the decline of risk-free returns, capital market reforms enhancing market investability, and increased certainty in China's transformation development [9] - Investment opportunities are identified in technology growth sectors, manufacturing expansion, cyclical consumption, and financial stocks, with a focus on quality strategies over barbell strategies [10] Hong Kong Market Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned for upward potential, with a significant inflow of capital expected, particularly from foreign investors [13][14] - The technology sector is highlighted as a key focus for 2026, with opportunities in innovative drugs and brokerage firms [15] Fund Evaluation - The public fund industry is shifting towards a focus on equity, benchmarks, and long-term performance, with a growing emphasis on active equity funds and passive index funds [30][31] - The sales environment for public funds is evolving towards a model that prioritizes long-term client interests and diversified asset allocation [32] Fixed Income Strategy - The fixed income market is expected to experience a shift in macroeconomic anchors, with a focus on multi-asset investment opportunities in a low-interest-rate environment [35][36] Real Estate Outlook - The real estate market is anticipated to undergo changes, with a focus on marginal improvements and long-term growth potential [39][40] Transportation Sector - The aviation industry is expected to enter a "super cycle," driven by recovering demand and a favorable pricing environment [52][53] - The shipping industry is also poised for growth, with increasing demand for oil and dry bulk shipping [56][57] Coal Industry - The coal sector is expected to enter a new upward cycle, driven by recovering demand and supply constraints [74][75] Steel Industry - The steel industry is projected to stabilize, with demand recovering and supply constraints expected to support profitability [80][81]

Core Insights - The upcoming advanced training program at Peking University focuses on international economic patterns and trade trends, aimed at enhancing entrepreneurs' strategic thinking and risk management skills [4][9]. Group 1: Program Details - The advanced training program will take place on November 22-23, 2025, at Peking University, featuring sessions on international economic trends and legal risk management for entrepreneurs [4][9]. - The program includes a variety of activities such as classic readings and networking dinners to enrich the learning experience and facilitate resource connections among entrepreneurs [9]. Group 2: Faculty and Expertise - The program will be led by distinguished faculty, including a professor from Peking University's Economics Department and a legal expert from a major law firm, both of whom have extensive experience in their respective fields [6][7]. - The course will emphasize wealth management, with a focus on macroeconomic perspectives and practical insights, aimed at equipping entrepreneurs with the necessary skills to navigate regional economic developments [9].

Group 1 - The construction of the Tibar Port by a Chinese company symbolizes East Timor's integration into the regional economy and is one of the most significant infrastructure projects since its independence in 2002 [1] - East Timor's oil and gas resources have historically provided wealth, but declining production and fluctuating revenues have led to a decrease in the Petroleum Fund, projected to fall to $18.2 billion by the end of 2024 [1] - A significant portion of East Timor's population lives in poverty, with one-third spending less than $2 a day and over half lacking access to safe drinking water, highlighting economic disparities and challenges [1] Group 2 - The Suai Highway, the largest transportation infrastructure project since East Timor's independence and the first highway in the country, has improved local travel conditions and regional connectivity since its opening in 2018 [2] - China has extended its cooperation with East Timor into various fields, including agricultural projects, educational scholarships for youth, and healthcare support through medical teams [2] - East Timor's recent accession as the 11th member of ASEAN is expected to enhance its political status and open broader development opportunities [2] Group 3 - East Timor's future growth is contingent on its governance and reforms, as well as external cooperation and support, reflecting the narrative of a small nation pursuing its dreams alongside its partners [3]

Group 1: New Developments in Regional Economy - The gap in regional development remains to be further narrowed, with GDP growth from 29.74 trillion in 2020 to an estimated 29.67 trillion in 2024, indicating minimal progress[6] - Overall execution of regional development strategies has been relatively good, with significant breakthroughs in regional development systems and mechanisms[5] - The optimization of major productivity layouts is essential for better coordination of development and safety[5] Group 2: New Missions for Regional Economic Development - Building a unified national market is crucial for accelerating the construction of a new development pattern[19] - Efforts to reduce regional development disparities are aimed at promoting common prosperity for all people[19] - Emphasis on efficiency and safety in optimizing major productivity layouts is necessary[19] Group 3: New Proposals for Regional Economic Development - Focus on leveraging strategic overlay effects to enhance policy effectiveness[27] - Attention to regional coordinated development to reduce disparities through collaboration[31] - Highlighting the role of key growth areas to support major economic provinces in taking the lead[36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Beijing Bank, indicating an expectation of stock performance that is better than the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [1][9][13]. Core Views - The report highlights that Beijing Bank's operating income for the first three quarters of 2025 was 51.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year [4][7]. - The bank's total asset scale grew by 21.5% year-on-year, with loans increasing by 9.3% and deposits by 11.1% [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the stability of the bank's asset quality, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.29% at the end of the third quarter, down 1 basis point from the previous half-year [7][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2025, the projected operating income is 71.83 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, and net profit is expected to be 26.02 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.7% [6][10]. - The report notes a decline in non-interest income, which fell by 9.2% year-on-year, primarily due to market fluctuations affecting the bond market [7][9]. Asset Quality - The bank's NPL ratio is projected to decrease slightly to 1.30% in 2025, with a stable provision coverage ratio of 202% [10][11]. - The report indicates that the bank's risk compensation ability remains stable, with a loan-to-deposit ratio of 89.29% [11]. Market Position and Outlook - The report suggests that the bank's deep-rooted presence in the Beijing region supports steady performance growth, with expectations for continued improvement in financial results due to recovering market demand [9][10]. - The bank's price-to-book (P/B) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.43x, 0.40x, and 0.38x, indicating a sufficient margin of safety in valuation [9][10].