2025年，是"十四五"规划收官之年，人民币汇率也迎来五年来最大涨幅，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率 分别收在6.9879、6.9697，均创2023年5月以来新高。 2025年，人民币汇率受到关税预期扰动、美元跌宕起伏以及内部环境向好等因素影响，从"7.30"附近开 局，到升破"7.00"收官，整体表现为"先弱后强"，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元分别累计上涨约4.27%、 4.93%。 步入2026年，美元走势及外部经贸环境仍是影响汇率的核心变量，综合来看内外部环境仍然有利，国际 货币体系重构的影响也有望持续，人民币汇率或延续双向波动、缓步升值的态势，但也不宜单边押注人 民币行情，企业和金融机构仍应坚持风险中性理念。 2025年人民币汇率明显回升 与美元走势相关性下降 "究其原因，是在美国政府系列政策导致美元信用松动之际，我国经济与金融市场的韧性有效改善了市 场信心，国际货币秩序持续重构，令人民币汇率在贸易不确定性提升的压力下逆势升值。"中金公司研 究部外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳说。 具体按趋势看，全年汇率走势大致可分两个阶段。 其一是年初至4月上旬，全球关税政策的风险上升，美国推出所谓"对等关税"令非美货币普遍走弱， ...

首先从外部看，中美双方在经过多轮磋商后达成系列协议，外部经贸环境逐渐转暖。 新华财经北京1月8日电（记者翟卓）2025年，人民币汇率受到关税预期扰动、美元跌宕起伏以及内部环 境向好等因素影响，从"7.30"附近开局，到升破"7.00"收官，整体表现为"先弱后强"，在岸、离岸人民 币兑美元分别累计上涨约4.27%、4.93%。 步入2026年，美元走势及外部经贸环境仍是影响汇率的核心变量，综合来看内外部环境仍然有利，国际 货币体系重构的影响也有望持续，人民币汇率或延续双向波动、缓步升值的态势，但也不宜单边押注人 民币行情，企业和金融机构仍应坚持风险中性理念。 2025年人民币汇率明显回升与美元走势相关性下降 2025年，是"十四五"规划收官之年，人民币汇率也迎来五年来最大涨幅，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率 分别收在6.9879、6.9697，均创2023年5月以来新高。 "究其原因，是在美国政府系列政策导致美元信用松动之际，我国经济与金融市场的韧性有效改善了市 场信心，国际货币秩序持续重构，令人民币汇率在贸易不确定性提升的压力下逆势升值。"中金公司研 究部外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳说。 具体按趋势看，全年汇率走势大 ...

新华财经北京1月8日电（记者翟卓）2025年，人民币汇率受到关税预期扰动、美元跌宕起伏以及内部环 境向好等因素影响，从"7.30"附近开局，到升破"7.00"收官，整体表现为"先弱后强"，在岸、离岸人民 币兑美元分别累计上涨约4.27%、4.93%。 步入2026年，美元走势及外部经贸环境仍是影响汇率的核心变量，综合来看内外部环境仍然有利，国际 货币体系重构的影响也有望持续，人民币汇率或延续双向波动、缓步升值的态势，但也不宜单边押注人 民币行情，企业和金融机构仍应坚持风险中性理念。 2025年人民币汇率明显回升 与美元走势相关性下降 2025年，是"十四五"规划收官之年，人民币汇率也迎来五年来最大涨幅，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率 分别收在6.9879、6.9697，均创2023年5月以来新高。 "究其原因，是在美国政府系列政策导致美元信用松动之际，我国经济与金融市场的韧性有效改善了市 场信心，国际货币秩序持续重构，令人民币汇率在贸易不确定性提升的压力下逆势升值。"中金公司研 究部外汇研究首席分析师李刘阳说。 具体按趋势看，全年汇率走势大致可分两个阶段。 其一是年初至4月上旬，全球关税政策风险上升，美国推出所谓 ...

陈文玲：国际金价为何一路狂飙？ 改革创新 ★★★★★ 受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场供需紧张及避险需求推动，国际市场黄金期货和现货价格2025年底均创 历史新高。2025年，国际金价累计涨幅超过70%。金价狂飙的背后，以美元为中心的国际货币体系正在 动摇，美元信用正在削弱，此外还有AI产业推进带来的需求。本报邀请中国现代国际关系研究院研究 员陈凤英和中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任陈文玲进行解读。 让人想起"尼克松冲击" 2025年这一轮国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行情"，从年初的2600美元/盎司到年底的4500美元/盎 司，现货黄金全年50次刷新历史纪录 "乱世黄金"再次得到验证 "乱世"不一定是战争，也可以是无序。世界正处于百年未有之大变局，也是大乱局，变乱交织。"乱世 买黄金"的古老逻辑在2025年再次得到验证 【观察】 在多重因素推动下，国际金价在2025年屡创新高，尤其年底更是频频刷新纪录，全年累计涨幅约七成， 创下自1979年以来最强的年度表现。 国际黄金的首轮牛市始于美国前总统尼克松放弃金本位制并瓦解布雷顿森林货币体系之时。随着尼克松 政府着手扩大美国联邦赤字，通胀率飙升，再叠加两次石油 ...

受地缘政治紧张局势加剧、市场供需紧张及避险需求推动，国际市场黄金期货和现货价格2025年底均创 历史新高。2025年，国际金价累计涨幅超过70%。金价狂飙的背后，以美元为中心的国际货币体系正在 动摇，美元信用正在削弱，此外还有AI产业推进带来的需求。本报邀请中国现代国际关系研究院研究 员陈凤英和中国国际经济交流中心学术委员会副主任陈文玲进行解读。 让人想起"尼克松冲击" 2025年这一轮国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行情"，从年初的2600美元/盎司到年底的4500美元/盎 司，现货黄金全年50次刷新历史纪录 【观察】 陈文玲：2025年这一轮国际金价上涨可以说走出了"史诗级行情"，从年初的2600美元/盎司到年底的 4500美元/盎司，现货黄金全年50次刷新历史纪录，3年累计涨幅达163%，远超2020年新冠疫情时期的 波动强度，涨幅惊人。 从市场表现看，2025年金价波动可划分为几个阶段。第一阶段，1—4月，关税恐慌触发首轮暴涨，现货 黄金从2900美元/盎司飙升至3500美元/盎司；第二阶段，4—8月，贸易谈判缓和进入震荡期，中美贸易 谈判超预期取得进展，金价进入3200—3500美元/盎司区间震荡； ...

李求索认为，有较多的成长领域将会延续景气，市场风格有望趋向均衡，可关注三条主线：1.景气成 长：AI(人工智能)领域有望逐步进入应用兑现阶段，算力、光模块、云计算基础设施层面仍有机会，或 更偏国产方向；应用端关注机器人、消费电子、智能驾驶和软件应用等。2.外需突围：结合出海趋势和 对美敞口，关注家电、工程机械、商用客车、电网设备和游戏，以及有色金属等全球定价资源品。3.周 期反转：关注供需问题临近改善拐点或政策支持领域，如化工、养殖业、新能源等。 李求索表示，期待资本市场政策进一步促进市场"长期""稳进"。在国际货币体系重构、全球资金再配置 的背景下，可进一步推动资本市场对外开放，例如增加外资可投资范围、鼓励中资券商国际化发展等。 在支持科创企业融资、提升市场包容度的同时，继续优化中长期资金入市机制，从而更好地配合科创企 业对耐心资本的需求，同时为活跃的市场增加稳定性与韧性。(马静) 中金公司（601995）研究部首席国内策略分析师李求索表示，2026年，国际秩序重构与中国产业创新两 大因素共振，将支持A股表现。从节奏上看，市场或将呈现前升后稳，在资金活跃及估值抬升背景下， 可关注波动率提升及与基本面匹配的节 ...

Core Insights - Global official gold reserves increased by 166 tons in Q2 2023, reaching historical highs, with central banks expected to continue purchasing over 1000 tons annually from 2022 to 2024 [2][3] - 95% of surveyed central banks anticipate an increase in global official gold reserves in the next 12 months, with 43% planning to increase their own gold holdings [2] - The freezing of Russian foreign exchange reserves by the US and its allies has triggered a crisis of trust in the US dollar-based international monetary system, leading to a surge in gold purchases by central banks [3][5] Gold as an Alternative to the Dollar - Gold is a non-nominal asset with physical form, immune to political interference, and can be stored under national control, making it a secure option in the current geopolitical climate [4] - Gold possesses unique attributes as a commodity, currency, and financial asset, independent of any nation's credit, thus serving as a hedge against currency devaluation and high debt levels [4] - The global daily trading volume of gold exceeds $100 billion, providing the liquidity that central banks require for reserve assets [4] Shift Towards Diversification - Central banks are adjusting asset allocation strategies, with a notable trend of "de-dollarization" emerging, particularly among emerging market countries like China, Russia, and India, as well as others like Turkey and Kazakhstan [5] - There is a clear trend towards diversifying international trade settlement currencies, with more countries opting for local currency settlements to reduce reliance on the US dollar [5] - The erosion of trust in the dollar's dominance is a gradual process, and while the dollar remains a key player in global finance, the shift towards a more diversified international monetary system is underway [5][6] Future Financial Landscape - The increasing demand for gold reflects a broader desire for a more equitable and diversified international monetary system, with gold playing a crucial role as a store of value and a symbol of financial sovereignty [5][6] - The development of digital currencies may further alter the existing financial landscape, potentially reducing dependence on traditional reserve currencies [6] - The ongoing transformation in the global financial system is complex and will involve market fluctuations and geopolitical tensions, as countries seek to balance security, liquidity, and profitability in their reserve strategies [6]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce, and for the first time in 29 years, global central bank gold reserves have exceeded U.S. Treasury holdings, indicating a significant shift towards de-dollarization [1][9] - The dominance of the U.S. dollar, once seen as a geopolitical advantage, is now facing serious challenges as countries actively seek alternatives [3][12] Group 1: Dollar Hegemony and Its Challenges - The establishment of dollar hegemony was a strategic design post-World War II, with the Bretton Woods system linking the dollar to gold, which was later decoupled in 1971 [3] - The dollar's status as the primary reserve currency has provided the U.S. with substantial benefits, including easy management of trade deficits and significant revenue from seigniorage [3][12] - Recent trends show a decline in the dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves, dropping from 71% in 2000 to approximately 58% by 2024 [7] Group 2: De-dollarization Trends - Since Q3 2020, de-dollarization has shifted from academic discussion to actionable strategies by nations, with central banks purchasing an average of 1,000 tons of gold annually, primarily from emerging markets [9][10] - Countries are increasingly adopting local currency settlements or alternative non-dollar currencies to mitigate risks associated with the dollar [10][18] - The global financial infrastructure is becoming more diversified, with China's CIPS system facilitating cross-border payments in yuan, covering 185 countries by the end of 2024 [7][10] Group 3: Future of the International Monetary System - The restructuring of the international monetary system is no longer a question of "if" but "how," with potential alternatives like the euro, yuan, and SDR gaining traction [14][16] - The rise of gold as a reserve asset reflects a response to declining confidence in the dollar, with gold now surpassing the euro as the second-largest reserve asset globally [16][18] - A multi-polar currency system may emerge, featuring coexistence among the dollar, euro, yuan, and gold, which could help mitigate risks and reduce the impact of single currency fluctuations on the global economy [16][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) and its implications for the international monetary system, particularly in the context of the "de-dollarization" trend and the structural changes in global finance [2][25]. Group 1: Hibor Mechanism - Hibor reflects the average overnight borrowing rates among 20 major banks in Hong Kong and is influenced by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's (HKMA) efforts to maintain a fixed exchange rate with the US dollar [3][5]. - The HKMA's actions to stabilize the currency involve adjusting liquidity in the banking system, which directly impacts Hibor rates [5][6]. Group 2: Hibor's Unexpected Low Levels - From May to August, Hibor experienced a significant drop from over 4% to near 0%, remaining at historical lows for three months before rising again [6][10]. - The prolonged low levels of Hibor were attributed to a decrease in the attractiveness of US dollar assets, which reduced the scale of carry and arbitrage trades that typically influence Hibor [6][15]. Group 3: International Monetary System Implications - The sustained low Hibor levels are seen as a reflection of the ongoing restructuring of the international monetary system, moving from a dollar-centric model to a more diversified framework [25][27]. - The article highlights two trends in this restructuring: fragmentation, indicating a return to local preferences in capital allocation, and diversification, where investors increasingly favor alternative assets like the Chinese yuan [27][15].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "long-term" and "steady" investment outlook for the A-share market, indicating favorable conditions for sustained growth [8]. Core Insights - The A-share market has experienced a significant upward trend since last September, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 40% [2]. - Historical analysis of previous long-term upward phases in the A-share market reveals that these phases typically last 2-3 years, characterized by substantial overall gains and increased trading volumes driven by new capital inflows [2][3]. - The current market rally is supported by macroeconomic improvements and favorable liquidity conditions, alongside key industry trends such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, high-end manufacturing, and new energy [6][9]. Summary by Sections Historical Upward Phases - The report reviews past upward phases in the A-share market, noting that each phase began from significant market lows and was marked by investor pessimism, followed by a gradual increase in market volatility and investor behavior divergence [2][3]. - Key historical phases include 2005-2007, 2013-2015, and 2019-2021, each exhibiting distinct characteristics and driving factors [2][5]. Driving Factors - The report identifies macroeconomic recovery and liquidity improvements as primary drivers of the current market rally, with a focus on the growth of key industries [3][6]. - The ongoing capital market reforms and government policies are expected to enhance market vitality and support long-term growth [4][8]. Earnings and Valuation - The report anticipates a turnaround in earnings growth for A-share companies, projecting a 3.5% overall growth rate for the year, with non-financial sectors expected to exceed 8% growth [3][10]. - Current valuations of the A-share market remain reasonable, with the CSI 300 index trading at a PE ratio of approximately 14 times, which is relatively low compared to other global markets [10][11]. Market Characteristics - The report highlights that the current market phase is characterized by a clear focus on growth styles, particularly in technology and innovative sectors, with a rotation among leading industries [6][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy support and fundamental improvements in driving market performance, suggesting that the current rally may have more sustainable characteristics compared to previous phases [8][9].