Core Insights - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates a decrease of 45 yuan/ton, with an increased expected drop of 5 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, remaining below the adjustment threshold [1] - International oil prices have experienced a significant drop due to geopolitical developments, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine situation, with expectations of a potential framework agreement by the end of the month [3] - The latest EIA data shows a reduction in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.426 million barrels, contrasting with an expected decrease of 603,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 2 million barrels against an expected decrease [3] Oil Price Trends - As of the latest reports, U.S. crude oil is trading at $59.47 per barrel, showing a slight increase of 0.10% after a previous drop of 1.92% [3] - Brent crude oil also saw a decline of 1.74%, closing at $63.66 per barrel [3] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data and unemployment rate are anticipated to influence further fluctuations in oil prices [3] Regional Fuel Prices - The new fuel price adjustments will take effect on November 24, with specific prices for various fuel types listed for major cities [4][5][6] - For example, in Beijing, the price for 92 octane gasoline is 6.94 yuan/liter, while 95 octane is priced at 7.39 yuan/liter [4] - Prices vary across regions, with notable differences in cities like Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu [5][6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile. News of potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port due to an attack on Friday caused intraday fluctuations. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions risks. The US sanctions on Russia will take effect on November 21, and the short - term statements of the US and Russia will affect market expectations. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventories are accumulating, and global oil is slightly de - stocking. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, the refinery operations in Europe and the US have recently recovered, while the overhaul rate of Middle - East refineries remains relatively high. In the short term, the interruption of Russian ports supports the Dubai monthly spread, but global supply pressure and potential OPEC production - increase plans limit the upside. In the short term, the monthly spread and absolute prices will maintain a volatile pattern. In the fourth quarter, the idea of shorting on rallies is maintained [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - From November 13 - 19, 2025, WTI prices decreased by $1.30, BRENT by $1.38, and DUBAI by $0.54. SC increased by 5.70, and OMAN decreased by 1.22. Other related prices such as those of refined products and differentials also had corresponding changes [3]. 2. Daily News - The Kremlin stated that it could arrange a call between Russian President Putin and US President Trump if necessary. News of the decline in the signal of the Russia - Ukraine peace process led to a drop in international oil prices. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a seven - month high, and production hit a two - and - a - half - year peak [3][4]. 3. Inventory - In the week of November 07, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day, domestic production increased by 211,000 barrels, commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels, strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels, and commercial crude oil imports decreased by 702,000 barrels per day. UAE's Fujaidira Port's refined oil inventory increased by 3.204 million barrels in the week of November 12. Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters in the week of November 08. From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased [5].

格隆汇11月20日｜周三有报道称美国正重新推动结束俄乌冲突并已起草和平框架，国际油价应声下跌， 美、布两油日内均跌超2%，现分别报59.17美元/桶和63.02美元/桶。分析师指出，俄乌冲突若终结可能 为俄罗斯石油出口增加铺平道路，加剧市场对供应过剩的担忧。TPICAP集团能源专家斯Scott Shelton表 示："考虑到在途油轮、浮动仓储及受制裁的原油规模，一旦遭制裁的俄罗斯原油全部涌入市场，油价 很可能最终跌至50美元区间低端。"美国上月宣布对俄罗斯石油巨头Rosneft和卢克石油实施制裁，设定 11月21日为企业终止与这两家公司业务往来的最后期限。Rystad能源公司负责大宗商品市场的副总裁 Janiv Shah表示："随着周五制裁期限临近，市场正承受最大压力"，并补充说地缘政治风险溢价下降将 促使投资者更聚焦疲弱的供需基本面。 ...

Core Insights - The meeting between US and Chinese leaders in South Korea is perceived as a potential de-escalation of trade tensions, impacting oil prices positively in the short term [2][3] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut is likely to be the last for the year, influencing oil prices through various channels [3][4] - The geopolitical implications of US sanctions on Russian oil companies are causing significant shifts in global oil supply and demand dynamics [3][4] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices saw a slight increase, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil closing at $60.57 per barrel, up 0.15%, and Brent crude at $65.00 per barrel, up 0.12% [1] - Investors view the recent US-China agreement as a temporary easing of tensions rather than a structural change, which may limit long-term price increases [2][3] Group 2: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The US sanctions on two major Russian oil producers have led Indian refiners to halt purchases of Russian crude, indicating a significant shift in trade patterns [2][3] - The OPEC alliance is expected to discuss production policies, with a potential increase in output that could exacerbate concerns over global oversupply [2][4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Bank reports an increase in global oil supply surplus, predicting a 7% decline in commodity prices for 2025 and 2026, with a projected surplus of 165% in 2026 [4] - The supply-demand imbalance is attributed to weak global economic growth and delayed responses from oil-producing countries to market changes [4] Group 4: Future Trends in Oil Market - The future of the oil market will be characterized by intensified competition over regulatory standards and technological advancements, alongside a focus on managing market expectations [5] - The interaction between geopolitical events and financial markets will create new pricing dynamics, emphasizing the importance of soft power in the oil sector [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have shown a strong upward trend due to geopolitical risks, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $61.50 and $65.94 per barrel respectively, reflecting weekly increases of +6.88% and +7.59% [1] - The international oil market is facing increasing supply pressure as OPEC+ has accelerated its production increase plan, with a projected supply of 34.69 million barrels per day, the highest since December 2018 [2] - Demand is entering a seasonal low, with both EIA and IEA predicting that supply growth will outpace demand growth, leading to a forecasted Brent crude oil price of $62 and $52 per barrel for Q4 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ has entered a second phase of production increase, adding 1.66 million barrels per day, which will continue to exert supply pressure [2] - Non-OPEC+ countries are also expected to increase production significantly, with the IEA forecasting an additional 1.6 million barrels per day by 2025/2026 [2] Demand Summary - The EIA and IEA have both adjusted their demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating that demand growth will be lower than supply growth, with EIA predicting a demand increase of 1.1 million barrels per day [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for new wells developed by U.S. oil and gas companies is approximately $65 per barrel, with large companies having a breakeven price of around $61 per barrel [4] - A significant portion of U.S. oil executives believe that if WTI prices remain at $60 per barrel, production will slightly decrease, and at $50 per barrel, production will significantly decline [4]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to decline this year and early next year as geopolitical risk premiums decrease, with Brent crude potentially falling to the low $50s per barrel during the holiday season, before recovering to around $65 per barrel by the second half of next year [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Despite expectations of an oversupply in the oil market by 2025, this situation has not yet materialized, with strong short-term demand indicated by the persistent "contango" in the market [2]. - As of October 13, Brent crude spot prices were assessed at $64.23 per barrel, significantly down from over $80 per barrel in January [2]. - Key factors contributing to market resilience include geopolitical "panic factors" from conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, as well as low oil inventories in developed countries [2]. Group 2: China's Role - China is seen as an exception in the oil market, with ongoing strategic oil reserve accumulation providing support [3]. - Although oil inventories in Western developed countries remain low, surplus crude is primarily flowing to China, which may serve as a "floating storage" for unsold oil from Iran and Venezuela [3]. - Demand for gasoline and diesel in China has plateaued, influenced by the trend towards electrification, despite growth in petrochemical demand [3]. Group 3: Supply Trends - Oil prices are currently in a downward trend, with more crude entering the market in the second half of the year due to steady increases in OPEC+ production and rising output from non-OPEC countries like Guyana, Norway, and Brazil [4]. - Since April, OPEC+ has announced multiple rounds of production increases [4]. Group 4: Risk Premiums - The oil market has been characterized by geopolitical risk premiums throughout the year, but these premiums are gradually dissipating as the market's ability to cope with geopolitical shocks improves [5]. - Recent developments, such as a peace agreement between Israel and Hamas, have not fully resolved ongoing conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine situation, which continues to impact energy markets [5][6]. - There is a possibility that the market may be underestimating the likelihood of sudden supply disruptions from key oil-producing countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, which are currently facing unstable conditions [7].

Core Insights - The gold market experienced significant volatility on October 22, with prices initially dropping due to a previous night’s international gold price plunge, followed by a recovery, reflecting the diverse reactions of investors [1][10]. Investor Behavior - Many investors, like Mr. Wu, took advantage of the lower gold prices to buy in, demonstrating confidence in gold's long-term value as a hedge against risk and inflation [3]. - Some investors opted to sell their gold holdings to secure profits, with reports of long queues at gold buyback counters, indicating a trend of "locking in" gains amid price fluctuations [5]. Market Trends - Despite a decrease in gold prices, the demand for gold jewelry remains low, with many consumers still viewing prices as too high, leading to a cautious approach in purchasing [6]. - According to the China Gold Association, gold consumption fell by 3.54% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with jewelry consumption down by 26%, attributed to high prices [8]. Price Dynamics - Industry experts suggest that the recent price fluctuations are a natural correction following rapid increases, with expectations that gold prices have not yet peaked due to ongoing monetary easing and global uncertainty [8][10]. - An unusual market behavior was noted where gold prices and the US dollar index rose simultaneously, indicating a shift in market dynamics and a potential "de-dollarization" narrative [10]. Institutional Strategies - Professional institutions have seen net inflows into global gold ETFs for three consecutive months, with significant increases in Asian funds, reflecting a strategic shift towards gold investments [12]. - A private fund manager shared a "core + satellite" strategy, allocating 70% to physical gold and 30% to gold futures, balancing long-term trends with short-term opportunities [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views Financial Futures - The current core issue in the economic recovery is the lack of effective demand. Future policies may be introduced to promote stable price recovery, and the key trigger for policy introduction may be a significant decline in economic data. The recent escalation of Sino-US trade friction may not repeat the situation in April, and the uncertainty of future tariff progress remains relatively high. The short - term view on the stock market is wide - range fluctuation, and the foreign exchange market's pricing logic may shift to a "geopolitical risk premium" - dominated model [1][4] - The stock market shows a defensive trading pattern, with high - dividend and low - rising cyclical industries being more resilient, and the overall sentiment is cautious. The short - term view on the stock market is wide - range oscillation due to multiple uncertainties [4] - The bond market shows a "stock - bond seesaw" effect. If the A - share market adjusts, it will be beneficial for the bond market. For the current period price at the upper edge of the oscillation range, some low - position long orders can be closed for profit, and some can be continued to be held [5] - The container shipping index futures price may continue to oscillate in the short term. The Maersk's price stability and the Rotterdam port strike support the price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try positive arbitrage [8] Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are operating at high levels with increased volatility. The dovish signals from the Fed support the prices, but investors need to pay attention to the "232" investigation results. The medium - to - long - term trend is bullish, and short - term operations should be cautious [9][11] - Copper prices have entered a high - level oscillation range. The support at 84,000 is effective. The price may oscillate between 86,000 - 88,000 without the support of interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies [12][13] - Aluminum prices may oscillate strongly in the short term considering the easing of tariff issues and interest - rate cut expectations. Alumina is in a weak position due to over - supply, and cast aluminum alloy may oscillate strongly. For zinc, the short - term logic is bearish, and positive arbitrage can be held [13][14][15] - Nickel and stainless steel prices are under pressure from tariff issues. The fundamentals of nickel ore and new energy are different, and the price of nickel - iron may be weak. Stainless steel exports have positive factors, and the overall market needs to wait for a callback [16] - Tin prices are currently weak due to the overall market, but from a fundamental perspective, it is still bullish. It is recommended to wait for a callback to 278,000 yuan to enter the market [17] - Lead prices oscillate narrowly. The supply and demand of the industry chain are relatively stable, and the price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [17] Black Metals - For steel, the market is weak with high inventory and low demand. The price of iron ore may first rise and then fall, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. The price of coking coal and coke may oscillate, and the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is strengthening. The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are challenged by the contradiction between high supply and weak demand [18][20][22] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to increased supply and weakening demand. The short - term trend is downward adjustment, and the risk of falling below 60 dollars for Brent crude oil needs to be vigilant [23][24] - The profit of LPG's PDH on the disk is continuously shrinking. The domestic fundamentals change little, and the profit - shrinking drive still exists [25] - The PTA - PX market is dominated by macro events. The terminal demand has seasonal improvement but cannot drive the price up. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral operations [26][27] - PP prices follow the cost side down. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [29] - PE prices are falling due to a pessimistic sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [32] - The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by macro factors and are moving downward. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene will be tightened in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [35] - For fuel oil, it is recommended to try shorting the cracking profit. The low - sulfur fuel oil price has broken through the support level and is moving downward. The asphalt price may have a last upward opportunity this year after the digestion of crude oil's negative factors [35][36][37] - The prices of rubber and 20 - number rubber are under pressure from both supply and demand sides. The short - term view is weak oscillation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [37][38][39] - The prices of glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are weak in the near term. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high in the long term, the inventory of glass is high, and the demand for caustic soda is not as expected in the short term [39][40][41] - For pulp, it is necessary to pay attention to the liquidity of Russian needles. The price is restricted by factors such as high - level port inventory and weak downstream demand. For logs, the deep - discount logic is repeating, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [43][44] - The price of propylene is affected by the cost side, and the spot price has a slight increase. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has a slight improvement [44][45] Agricultural Products - For live pigs, the supply is still abundant, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the breeding rhythm and secondary fattening trends [47] - The oilseed market is dominated by Sino - US trade relations. The price of domestic soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade policies. It is recommended to hold the sold call option on M2601 [47][48][49] - The price of vegetable oils is weak due to the influence of the external market and crude oil. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on palm oil after a callback [50] - The price of soybeans may oscillate in the short term with limited upward space. It is recommended to short at the 4000 - level [51][52] - The prices of corn and starch are continuously weak. For the 11 - contract of corn, the short - hedge positions can be gradually reduced according to the spot sales progress [52] Summaries by Directory Financial Futures Macro - Key events include China's response to the US 301 investigation, Li Qiang's emphasis on expanding domestic demand, and the Fed's dovish signals on interest - rate cuts and possible early termination of balance - sheet reduction. The core issue in economic recovery is the lack of effective demand, and future policies may be introduced to promote price stability. The Sino - US trade friction may not repeat the April situation, and the uncertainty of future tariff progress is high [1] Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower, and the central parity rate was adjusted down. The Fed's dovish signals support the RMB to some extent, but the short - term influence of Sino - US trade friction on the exchange rate is limited. The foreign exchange market's pricing logic may shift to a "geopolitical risk premium" - dominated model [1][2] Stock Index - The stock market showed a defensive trading pattern on the previous day, with high - dividend and low - rising cyclical industries being more resilient. The overall sentiment is cautious due to Sino - US mutual measures. The short - term view is wide - range oscillation [3][4] Treasury Bond - The bond market showed a "stock - bond seesaw" effect on the previous day. If the A - share market adjusts, it will be beneficial for the bond market. For the current period price at the upper edge of the oscillation range, some low - position long orders can be closed for profit, and some can be continued to be held [5] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures price rose on the previous day. The Maersk's price stability at the end of October and the Rotterdam port strike support the price. The short - term price may continue to oscillate, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or try positive arbitrage [6][8] Commodities Metals - **Gold and Silver**: They are operating at high levels with increased volatility. The dovish signals from the Fed support the prices. Investors need to pay attention to the "232" investigation results. The medium - to - long - term trend is bullish, and short - term operations should be cautious [9][11] - **Copper**: The price has entered a high - level oscillation range. The support at 84,000 is effective. The spot market shows weak downstream buying power, and the futures market may oscillate between 86,000 - 88,000 without the support of interest - rate cut expectations and domestic policies [12][13] - **Aluminum and Related Industries**: Aluminum prices may oscillate strongly in the short term considering the easing of tariff issues and interest - rate cut expectations. Alumina is in a weak position due to over - supply, and cast aluminum alloy may oscillate strongly. For zinc, the short - term logic is bearish, and positive arbitrage can be held [13][14][15] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The prices are under pressure from tariff issues. The fundamentals of nickel ore and new energy are different, and the price of nickel - iron may be weak. Stainless steel exports have positive factors, and the overall market needs to wait for a callback [16] - **Tin**: The price is currently weak due to the overall market, but from a fundamental perspective, it is still bullish. It is recommended to wait for a callback to 278,000 yuan to enter the market [17] - **Lead**: The price oscillates narrowly. The supply and demand of the industry chain are relatively stable, and the price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [17] Black Metals - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The steel market is weak with high inventory and low demand. The price of iron ore may first rise and then fall, and it is expected to oscillate within a range. The implementation of China's special port - fee policy on US ships eases the concern about iron ore transportation costs [18][19][20] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is strengthening. The downstream steel market's supply - demand contradiction is deteriorating, and the cost support of coke is weakening. The long - term supply of coking coal is restricted, and the price's upward space depends on the steel market's supply - demand balance [20][21][22] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The contradiction between high supply and weak demand is prominent. The downstream demand is not as expected during the peak season, and the cost support is challenged [22] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakening demand. The short - term trend is downward adjustment, and the risk of falling below 60 dollars for Brent crude oil needs to be vigilant [23][24] - **LPG**: The profit of PDH on the disk is continuously shrinking. The domestic fundamentals change little, and the profit - shrinking drive still exists [25] - **PTA - PX**: The market is dominated by macro events. The terminal demand has seasonal improvement but cannot drive the price up. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for unilateral operations [26][27] - **PP**: The price follows the cost side down. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [29] - **PE**: The price is falling due to a pessimistic sentiment. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [32] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The prices are affected by macro factors and are moving downward. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene will be tightened in the short term. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [35] - **Fuel Oil**: It is recommended to try shorting the cracking profit. The low - sulfur fuel oil price has broken through the support level and is moving downward. The asphalt price may have a last upward opportunity this year after the digestion of crude oil's negative factors [35][36][37] - **Rubber and 20 - number Rubber**: The prices are under pressure from both supply and demand sides. The short - term view is weak oscillation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [37][38][39] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices are weak in the near term. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high in the long term, the inventory of glass is high, and the demand for caustic soda is not as expected in the short term [39][40][41] - **Pulp and Logs**: For pulp, it is necessary to pay attention to the liquidity of Russian needles. The price is restricted by factors such as high - level port inventory and weak downstream demand. For logs, the deep - discount logic is repeating, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [43][44] - **Propylene**: The price is affected by the cost side, and the spot price has a slight increase. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has a slight improvement [44][45] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply is still abundant, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the breeding rhythm and secondary fattening trends [47] - **Oilseeds**: The market is dominated by Sino - US trade relations. The price of domestic soybeans and related products is affected by factors such as supply, demand, and trade policies. It is recommended to hold the sold call option on M2601 [47][48][49] - **Vegetable Oils**: The price is weak due to the influence of the external market and crude oil. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on palm oil after a callback [50] - **Soybeans**: The price may oscillate in the short term with limited upward space. It is recommended to short at the 4000 - level [51][52] - **Corn and Starch**: The prices are continuously weak. For the 11 - contract of corn, the short - hedge positions can be gradually reduced according to the spot sales progress [52]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that the renewed US-China tensions since last Thursday are increasing geopolitical risk premiums [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - The bank has previously warned about high thresholds for the upcoming US-China trade negotiations in November [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index faces downward pressure on earnings per share estimates during the third-quarter earnings announcement period [1] - The stabilization of the 10-year US Treasury yield will limit the easing space for equity risk premiums [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - If risk-averse sentiment deepens, there may be opportunities to increase positions in China and rotate back to growth concept stocks [1] - Key upcoming events include the Fourth Plenary Session (October 20-23), the APEC meeting in South Korea (October 29-30), the deadline for extending US-China trade tariffs (November 10), and the third-quarter earnings announcements in October and November [1] Group 3: Sector Ratings Adjustments - The bank upgraded the consumer staples sector rating to "overweight" [1] - The ratings for the consumer discretionary/healthcare sectors were downgraded to "in line with the market" [1] - Recommendations include shifting from crowded growth concept stocks to quality laggards in various sectors, such as Haier, Midea, Mengniu, Yili, and Master Kong in consumer, PetroChina in energy, CCB in finance, China Mobile, China Telecom, and Unicom in communications, and China Yangtze Power in utilities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming domestic oil price adjustment window is set to open on October 13, with expectations of a significant price increase prior to the National Day holiday being challenged by recent sharp declines in international oil prices [2][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International crude oil prices have experienced a significant drop, with Brent crude futures closing at $64.36 per barrel, marking a weekly decline of over 7%, the lowest in nearly four months. WTI crude prices also fell sharply to $60.35 per barrel [3]. - The decline in oil prices is attributed to three main factors: increased production expectations from OPEC, weakened energy demand forecasts, and a decrease in geopolitical risk premiums [5][9]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - OPEC is expected to increase oil production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with Saudi Arabia indicating a flexible approach to production adjustments based on market conditions. OPEC's oil output has been rising for five consecutive months [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded global oil demand growth for the third consecutive month, projecting an increase of only 700,000 barrels per day by 2025, a reduction of 350,000 barrels per day from earlier forecasts [9]. - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased significantly, with current oil risk premiums down 40% compared to the period following the June Israel-Hamas conflict, suggesting further potential for price declines [9]. Group 3: Domestic Oil Price Adjustments - The rapid decline in international oil prices has led to a narrowing of the domestic crude oil change rate from a significant increase before the holiday to a slight increase of 0.69%, with the price increase dropping from 160 yuan per ton to 50 yuan per ton [10]. - If international oil prices remain at current levels, the domestic oil price adjustment on October 13 may not occur due to insufficient price increases [12]. - The outcome of the OPEC meeting on October 5, particularly regarding potential production increases, will directly impact oil price trends in the following week [14].