连平、 刘涛、王运金（ 连平系广开首席产业研究院院长兼首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事长 ） 当前，国际局势仍然纷繁复杂、扑朔迷离，可以概括为 "四个确定"和"三个不确定"。"四个确定"分 别是：世界经济复苏压力显著增大、关税驱动美国通胀反弹、美国经济正处于强弱换档期、美联储开 启本轮第二阶段降息。"三个不确定性"分别是：中美对等关税谈判悬念犹存、地缘政治风险多点共 振前景难料、美联储年内降息频率和幅度仍存变数。 四季度外部环境确定性因素和不确定性因素复 杂交织，有可能搅动全球资本流动、市场汇率和外贸格局，从不同维度给中国经济带来结构性压力和 挑战。 目前，国内需求积弱、产能结构性过剩、通货紧缩压力、预期不稳等问题依然不容忽视。三季度以 来，部分经济金融指标表现不佳：一是基建投资增速下滑，对投资增速形成阶段性拖累。 1-8月固 定资产投资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下降至2.0%，已连续四个月 环比逐月下降，短期来看受到基建投资资金错位、部分区域高温暴雨等因素影响。从中长期来看，当 前"十四五"规划进入收官阶段，大量存量项目已进入建设后期，而"十五五"规划的新项目尚未大规 模启 ...

今年以来，面对复杂严峻的形势，长沙迎难而上，推动商务经济运行保持"稳中提质、进中向好"。1—8 月，全市实现社零总额3679.46亿元，同比增长5.7%，增速高于全国1.1个百分点；进出口总值1862.4亿 元，占全省53.1%以上，增速高于全省7.3个百分点，在全省开放格局中持续发挥"压舱石"作用；实际使 用外资增速32.1%，占全省43.2%；新引进重大项目133个，总投资1154.2亿元，其中百亿级项目3个、50 亿级项目4个，"三类500强"项目27个，项目结构和质量同步提升。 9月28日，全市商务经济形势分析会举行，副市长郑平出席。 郑平表示，全市商务系统要全力以赴冲刺三季度、决战四季度，确保完成全年目标任务。促消费要突 出"热点引爆"与"政策撬动"，办好"国庆放价·驾享星城"购车节、"福满星城"等主题活动，进一步拓展消 费新场景。稳外贸要突出"市场开拓"与"服务保障"，支持企业重点开拓非洲、东盟等新兴市场，培育外 贸新业态。强招商要突出"靶向精准"与"项目落地"，精准对接世界500强、行业龙头和隐形冠军，深化 基金招商、场景招商等新模式。守底线要突出重点场所安全监管，坚决打击扰乱市场行为。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The international shipping market is experiencing adjustments, with most freight rates declining. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was reported at 1415.36 points, down 3.1% from the previous period, indicating a weak supply-demand balance amid increasing uncertainties such as tariffs [1] - Despite the overall decline in freight rates, emerging markets are showing strong growth, particularly in the Middle East and Australia/New Zealand routes, which are experiencing price increases [1] Group 2: Freight Rate Trends - European shipping rates have been on a continuous decline since June 13, with the rate from Shanghai to Europe at $1668/TEU, down 8.4% [2] - U.S. shipping rates have also decreased, with rates to the West and East coasts at $1644/FEU and $2613/FEU, down 6.5% and 3.9% respectively [2] - The decline in European rates is attributed to a recovering economy and demand, as indicated by a PMI of 51.1 in August, while U.S. rates are affected by high tariffs leading to weak demand [2][3] Group 3: Business Insights - A logistics company reported an increase in business volume despite falling rates, attributing this to strong demand for exports to Europe and the upcoming peak shipping season [3] - However, there are concerns regarding inventory restrictions from major clients like Amazon, which could further compress domestic freight forwarding space [3] Group 4: Regional Freight Rate Increases - In contrast to the declining rates in Europe and the U.S., freight rates to the Middle East and Australia/New Zealand are rising. The rate to the Persian Gulf is $1479/TEU, up 7.1% [5] - The demand for larger containers, particularly for high-end equipment, is driving up rates, with 40-foot container rates reportedly exceeding $2000 [5][6] - The Australian and New Zealand routes have maintained stable upward trends, with rates increasing by 85% compared to June [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The traditional FOB business is expected to shrink, while logistics for high-tech products and overseas projects are seen as key growth areas [7] - The export of electromechanical products has increased by 9.3%, indicating a shift towards higher value-added goods [7] - The Chinese government is committed to expanding high-level openness and ensuring quality development in response to global trade uncertainties [7]

Group 1 - In the first seven months of this year, Jiangsu's private enterprises achieved an import and export volume of 1.47 trillion yuan, contributing 1.4 percentage points to the province's overall trade growth, showcasing the resilience and vitality of private enterprises in foreign trade [1] - Private foreign trade enterprises in Jiangsu are enhancing their export resilience through structural optimization, focusing on technology-intensive and green product transformations [2] - Companies like Kangli Elevator and Nantong Kaixuan Sports Goods are innovating their products and expanding their international market presence, with significant export figures reported [2] Group 2 - The green economy is becoming a new growth area for private enterprises, with companies like Wuxi Quanyu Electronics and Wuxi Kaiyuan Household Products expanding their overseas business, particularly in Europe and Japan [3] - The implementation of RCEP has significantly reduced tariffs for companies, enhancing their competitiveness in international markets [3] Group 3 - The flexibility of private enterprises allows them to quickly adapt to changes in overseas markets, leading to successful orders in niche markets, such as inflatable swimming pools and outdoor sports products [4] - Companies like Zhangjiagang Fojijia Food and Suzhou Taoyun Amusement Equipment are leveraging innovative products to capture overseas market opportunities [5][4] Group 4 - Policy support and precise services are crucial for the sustainable development of private foreign trade enterprises, with customs authorities providing guidance and facilitating efficient customs clearance [6][7] - The proactive disclosure policy by customs has helped companies avoid penalties and improve compliance, enhancing their operational efficiency [7] - Companies like New World Pump and HuGong Intelligent Technology are benefiting from credit advantages and policy support, leading to significant export growth [8][6]

Core Insights - Shenzhen's foreign trade has shown resilience in 2023, with total imports and exports reaching 2.58 trillion yuan in the first seven months, maintaining the same level as the previous year and ranking first among mainland cities in foreign trade [1] - In July alone, Shenzhen's total trade value was 415.94 billion yuan, marking a 6.2% increase, with exports hitting a record monthly high of 255.62 billion yuan, up 4.7% [1] - The main trade method remains general trade, accounting for 54.9% of total trade value, while bonded logistics and processing trade also contributed significantly [1] Trade Performance - Exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 1.17 trillion yuan, growing by 4.4% and representing 74.7% of total exports [2] - Key traditional electronic consumer products, such as computers and audio-video equipment, saw exports of 179.51 billion yuan and 50.27 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 10.8% and 5.5% [2] - Strategic emerging industries, including lithium batteries and pure electric passenger vehicles, experienced substantial export growth of 37.9% and 21.7% [2] Import Dynamics - Imports of mechanical and electrical products totaled 836.56 billion yuan, increasing by 14.7% and making up 82.1% of total imports [2] - Integrated circuits were a significant import category, amounting to 454.69 billion yuan with a growth of 19.6% [2] - Imports of computer components, primarily graphics cards and servers, surged by 47.8%, totaling 184.4 billion yuan [2] Market Diversification - Shenzhen has made progress in diversifying its markets, with trade to Hong Kong, Taiwan, the EU, South Korea, and Japan collectively reaching 1.22 trillion yuan, a 10% increase, accounting for 47.2% of total trade [1] - Private enterprises remain the backbone of Shenzhen's foreign trade, with a total import and export value of 1.8 trillion yuan, representing 69.8% of the total [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade shows a positive upward trend, with significant growth in both monthly and cumulative trade values in the first seven months of the year [1] Trade Performance - In July, China's total goods trade import and export value reached 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than June, achieving a new high for the year [1] - For the first seven months, the total goods trade import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.6 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [1] Economic Context - The Director of the Statistical Analysis Department of the General Administration of Customs, Lv Daliang, indicated that China's economic operation has shown steady progress amidst a complex external environment, contributing to the positive performance of foreign trade [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the financial sector, highlighting the impact of regulatory changes and market dynamics on investment opportunities and risks [1]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - New regulations are being implemented that could significantly alter the landscape for investment banks, potentially increasing compliance costs and operational challenges [1]. - The regulatory environment is becoming more stringent, which may lead to a consolidation of smaller firms as they struggle to meet new requirements [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Recent market trends indicate a shift towards sustainable investing, with a growing demand for green financial products [1]. - The financial sector is experiencing increased volatility, which could present both risks and opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on market fluctuations [1]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - There is a notable rise in mergers and acquisitions activity, suggesting that companies are seeking growth through strategic partnerships [1]. - Investment banks are focusing on technology-driven solutions to enhance efficiency and client service, which may lead to new revenue streams [1].

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's total export value reached $321.78 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month[6] - Exports to countries involved in the "Belt and Road" initiative, ASEAN, and the EU continued to rise, while exports to the US experienced negative growth[10] - High-tech products, particularly integrated circuits and automobiles, saw significant growth, with integrated circuit exports at $17.88 billion, up 29.2% year-on-year[15] Import Performance - In July 2025, China's total import value was $223.54 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.1%[16] - Imports from "Belt and Road" countries turned positive with a growth of 1.21%, while imports from Africa and Latin America surged by 19.36% and 10.13%, respectively[16] - Traditional bulk commodity demand remains low, with cumulative import growth for iron ore, crude oil, and coal showing declines of -2.3%, 2.8%, and -13.0% respectively[17] Trade Balance - The trade surplus for July 2025 was $98.24 billion, indicating a stable trade balance despite fluctuations in exports and imports[6] - The overall trade structure is shifting, with the "Belt and Road" effect contributing to a more resilient trade performance[3] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to remain complex, with potential risks and opportunities impacting export growth in 2025[19] - Domestic economic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are anticipated to support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges from high global trade barriers persist[19]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade shows a positive trend with a total import and export value of 25.7 trillion yuan in the first seven months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1][2] Trade Performance - In July, the monthly import and export value reached 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a 6.7% year-on-year increase, which is the highest growth rate this year [1][2] - The import of key raw materials such as metal ores and crude oil has significantly increased, indicating robust domestic production activity and rising demand [1] - Exports of electromechanical products in July amounted to 1.3887 trillion yuan, up 8.8% from the previous year, while integrated circuit exports grew by 30.2% to 128.37 billion yuan [1] Trade Structure - General trade accounted for 64% of total foreign trade, with a value of 16.44 trillion yuan, growing by 2.1% [5] - Trade with ASEAN countries reached 4.29 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.4%, making it China's largest trading partner [5][6] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative totaled 13.29 trillion yuan, increasing by 5.5%, showcasing a diversified trade partnership [6] Business Entities - Private enterprises and foreign-invested enterprises have shown growth in imports and exports, with 570,000 private enterprises engaged in foreign trade, an increase of 8.5% [6] - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total imports and exports, with a value of 14.68 trillion yuan, growing by 7.4% [6] Structural Optimization - The export of electromechanical products reached 9.18 trillion yuan, representing 60% of total exports, with significant growth in high-tech products such as integrated circuits and electric vehicles [8] - High-tech product exports exceeded 5 trillion yuan, with notable increases in high-end machine tools and industrial robots [8] - Labor-intensive product exports decreased by 0.8%, indicating a shift towards high-value, high-tech industries [8] Future Outlook - The expansion of domestic demand is expected to drive import growth, while external uncertainties may affect exports [9] - Strengthening economic ties with Belt and Road countries is anticipated to provide strategic support for stabilizing external demand [9]

Core Insights - China's foreign trade maintained a positive momentum in the first seven months of the year, with a total import and export value of 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1] - In July alone, the total trade value reached 3.91 trillion yuan, marking a 6.7% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8% [1] - The growth in trade is attributed to the adaptability of foreign trade enterprises to international rules and the rapid development of new business models such as cross-border e-commerce [1][4] Trade Performance - Private enterprises accounted for 14.68 trillion yuan in imports and exports, a 7.4% increase, representing 57.1% of China's total foreign trade [2] - The number of private enterprises engaged in foreign trade reached 570,000, an increase of 8.5%, making up 87.2% of all enterprises with trade performance [2] - Foreign-invested enterprises recorded a trade value of 7.46 trillion yuan, growing by 2.6%, which constitutes 29% of the total foreign trade [3] Export Composition - In the first seven months, China exported 9.18 trillion yuan worth of electromechanical products, a growth of 9.3%, accounting for 60% of total exports [3] - Notable growth was seen in exports of integrated circuits (21.8% increase) and industrial robots (62.2% increase) [3] - The "new three samples" of green and low-carbon products, including electric vehicles and solar products, saw a robust export growth of 14.9% [3][4] Future Outlook - The demand for clean energy solutions globally is expected to drive the growth of China's green industry, positioning it as a key player in international trade [4] - The ongoing regional cooperation under agreements like RCEP is anticipated to enhance the quality and efficiency of China's foreign trade while maintaining its scale advantage [1]