2026 年 1 月 9 日 南美丰产预期不改 连粕延续震荡 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 豆粕月报 黄蕾 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/21 要点 要点 要点 ⚫ 当前中国采购2025/2026年度美豆预计达到1000-1100万 吨，市场预期目标为1200万吨，完成度9成左右；1-3月 船期大豆买船计划基本完成，后续采购转向南美市场， 中国采购美豆节奏将放缓；截至2026年1月1日当周， 2025/2026年度美豆累计出口销售量为2858万吨，进度为 64%，去年同期为79%，整体销售进度偏慢。 ⚫ 美国月度油籽压榨报告显示，2025年11月大豆压榨量为 662万短吨，去年同期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2026-01-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2605：2720至2780区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回落，南美大豆丰产和中国采购美豆数量不足，美豆短期回归震荡等待 中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区生长天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，美豆 带动和需求改善交互影响，年底需求逐渐进入旺季和现货价格升水支撑盘面，消息面多 空交织短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3060（华东），基差311，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存113.71万吨，上周109.69万吨，环比增加3.66%，去年同期58.28万吨， 同比增加95.11%。偏空 4.盘面 ...

向上缺乏驱动， 下方存在支撑 蛋白粕月报 2026/01/04 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利润及库存 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 供给端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 市场回顾：外盘方面，12月美豆价格大幅下跌，截至12月31日CBOT大豆3月合约收盘报1047.25美分/蒲式耳，较前一个月下跌98美分/蒲式耳， 跌幅8.56%。价差方面CBOT大豆3月-5月合约月差-13.5美分/蒲式耳，较前一个月下跌5美分/蒲式耳。国内方面，12月豆菜粕价格下跌，截至 12月31日，豆粕5月合约收盘报2749元/吨，较前一个月下跌96元/吨，跌幅3.37%。菜粕5月合约收盘报2365元/吨，较前一个月下跌50元/吨， 跌幅2.07%。价差方面，豆粕5月-9月合约月差-104元/吨，较前一个月上涨4元/吨；菜粕5月-9月合约月差-54元/吨，较前一个月上涨12元/ 吨。豆粕5月合约基差290元/吨，较前一个月上涨135元/吨 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 供需收缩，重心上移 ---2026 年豆一期货年度行情展望 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：2026 年豆一期货价格重心上移。 我们的逻辑：1）我国大豆总供应稳中略降。2025/26 年大豆总供应稳定，因为国内生产增加（2025 年国产大 豆产量创新高）、进口预计略降（巴西大豆进口利润下降）、期初库存稳定（国产大豆可能略降）。2026/27 年 大豆总供应预计稳中略降。由于国内连续四年高产、国际大豆供应充足，我们可以考虑减轻 2026 年国内大豆 生产压力、调减生产。由于进口供应充足及消费刚性，进口稳中略增。再考虑到结转库存下降，总供应或稳中 略降。2）我国大豆需求稳定。从整体大豆消费来看，预计稳中有增：食用需求刚性，压榨需求"年度略有波 动、总体稳中有增"。从国产大豆消费来看，预计从"较快增长"过渡到"平稳"格局。2024/25 年国产大豆 消费较快增长，因为低价效应、国内鼓励压榨消费。2025/26 年国产大豆消费预计稳定。食用消费稳定增长（刚 需特点），压榨消费下降（因为面对进口大豆竞争）。 ...

豆类市场2026年年报 豆类：云涛暗涌千帆竞 仓廪星移四季风 ——2025年豆类市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 王亮亮 Z0017427 摘要： 国际市场来看，2025/26 年度，新季美豆播种面积同比大幅下调，按照美豆优良 率与生长季天气来看，1 月继续下调单产的可能性较高，我们预计新季美豆产量或同 比下降 300-500 万吨左右。美国大豆需求主要是压榨与出口消费。近年来美豆压榨 消费表现强劲，后续主要变数在于其生柴政策的调整，而生柴政策的调整很大程度 上受国际柴油价格与大豆出口情况影响。受美国贸易保护主义影响，我国进一步加 强了巴西大豆的进口、弱化了美国大豆的进口。2025 年四季度，中美元首会晤使得 中美贸易关系似乎有所缓和，但对美豆仍然保留了 10%的加征关税，商业进口利润 依旧为深度负值，这也限制了市场层面对于美豆的采购量，意味着中美贸易关系虽 有缓和但仍严峻，我国能否持续对美豆采购直接影响着CBOT大豆期价的上行高度。 总体而言，受新季美豆产量同比下降与成本端的支撑，CBOT 大豆下方空间预计不大， 支撑位或许在 1000-1050 美分/蒲。如果美豆对华出口顺利，那么 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report: Weak Expectations for US Soybean Export Demand, Decline in CBOT Soybean Prices" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The CBOT soybean price declined due to weak US soybean export demand, improved rainfall in South American soybean - growing areas, and a drop in US soybean oil prices. The US soybean export demand is expected to remain weak, while the US soybean crushing outlook is positive. The USDA December report maintained the forecast for the 25/26 US soybean ending stocks at 290 million bushels [9]. Summary by Directory I. Market Review 1. Soybeans - As of December 12, the CBOT soybean 01 contract closed at 1076.25 cents per bushel, down 2.62% from the previous week. The decline was due to weak export demand, improved rainfall in South American soybean - growing areas, and a drop in US soybean oil prices. The USDA December report did not adjust the 25/26 US soybean production forecast, and the export demand forecast remained unchanged. The US soybean crushing expectation is still at a high level [9]. 2. Soybean Meal - **External Market**: As of December 12, the CBOT soybean meal 01 contract closed at $302.0 per short - ton, down 1.76% from the previous week, affected by the weakening of CBOT soybean prices and sufficient supply expectations [13]. - **Domestic Market**: As of December 12, the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract closed at 2770 yuan per ton, down 1.81% from the previous week, driven by a decline in soybean import costs and potential increases in soybean supply from state - reserve auctions. However, the slow pace of domestic US soybean purchases may support the price. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills decreased slightly but remained at a high level. The downstream soybean meal trading increased, and the spot basis strengthened [17]. 3. Soybean Oil - **External Market**: As of December 12, the CBOT soybean oil 01 contract closed at 50.07 cents per pound, down 3.15% from the previous week, affected by the decline in international crude oil prices and related competing vegetable oil prices [21]. - **Domestic Market**: The DCE soybean oil main contract switched to 2605. As of December 12, the DCE soybean oil 2601 contract closed at 8240 yuan per ton, down 0.31% from the previous week, and the 2605 contract closed at 7994 yuan per ton, down 1.06%. The decline was due to a drop in soybean import costs and high domestic oil mill soybean oil inventories. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate of oil mills were at a high level, downstream trading demand was average, and the soybean oil spot basis remained volatile [24]. II. Growing Area Weather 1. Brazilian Soybean Growing Area Weather - **Past Week (12.5 - 12.12)**: Rainfall in Goiás and Rio Grande do Sul was above normal, and the rest of the areas had normal rainfall. Temperatures in the central - western part of the main soybean - growing area and parts of Paraná were below normal, and the rest of the areas had normal temperatures [26]. - **Next Week (12.14 - 12.21)**: Rainfall in the central - western part of the main soybean - growing area is expected to be above normal, and the rest of the areas will have normal rainfall. Temperatures in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Paraná are expected to be below normal, and the rest of the areas will have normal temperatures [27]. 2. Argentine Soybean Growing Area Weather - **Past Week (12.5 - 12.12)**: Rainfall in parts of Córdoba and Santa Fe was above normal, parts of Buenos Aires had less rainfall, and the rest of the areas had normal rainfall. The overall temperature in the main soybean - growing area was normal [33]. - **Next Week (12.14 - 12.21)**: Rainfall and temperature in the main soybean - growing area are expected to be normal [35]. III. International Supply and Demand 1. US Soybeans - **USDA Monthly Report - US Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The USDA December report made minor adjustments to the 24/25 US soybean supply - demand balance sheet, keeping the 24/25 ending stocks forecast at 316 million bushels. The 25/26 balance sheet was unchanged, with the ending stocks forecast at 290 million bushels, in line with the November report and lower than the market expectation of 309 million bushels [43]. - **Crushing**: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the soybean crushing profit in Illinois, the prices of downstream soybean oil and soybean meal all declined. The US soybean crushing volume in October was 7.11 million short - tons, up 9.86% year - on - year. As of October 2025, the cumulative crushing volume in the 25/26 season was 13.26 million short - tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.87%. The US crude soybean oil inventory was 1.353 billion pounds, up 20.25% year - on - year, and the soybean meal inventory was 346,300 short - tons, up 14.14% year - on - year [44][48]. - **Export Inspection & Export Sales**: The US soybean export inspection volume increased week - on - week and met expectations, with the cumulative year - on - year decline slightly narrowing. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the export inspection volume was 1,018,127 tons. The cumulative export inspection volume so far in this crop year was 12,899,667 tons, a 45.24% year - on - year decrease. The cumulative year - on - year decline in 25/26 US soybean export sales continued to widen. As of the week of November 13, 25/26 cumulative export sales (including unshipped) were 18.4025 million tons, a 41.09% year - on - year decrease [52][53]. - **US Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $64.29 per ton, down from $66.54 on December 5 [57]. - **D4 RINs Price**: As of December 12, 2025, the US D4 RINs price was 104 cents, down 3.5 cents from December 5 [58]. 2. Brazilian Soybeans - **USDA Monthly Report - Brazilian Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The USDA December report maintained the 25/26 Brazilian soybean production forecast at 175 million tons, in line with market expectations. It also raised the 25/26 Brazilian soybean import forecast by 150,000 tons to 500,000 tons, and the ending stocks forecast was raised to 3.651 million tons [61]. - **Soybean Production Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 Brazilian soybean production, with the USDA forecasting 175 million tons [64]. - **Soybean Sowing**: As of December 5, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3% according to CONAB, 94% according to AgRural. The sowing progress in Rio Grande do Sul was 76% as of December 11, and the sowing in Paraná was 100% complete as of December 9, with a good - rate of 89% [65]. - **Export Sales**: Anec raised the forecast for Brazilian soybean exports in December to 3.33 million tons. As of the first week of December 2025, Brazil had exported 970,900 tons of soybeans that week, and the cumulative export volume was 105.78 million tons, an 8.53% year - on - year increase. As of the 49th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 95.17%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 28.56% [74]. - **Soybean Premium**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the Brazilian soybean premium quote increased [77]. - **Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the Brazilian soybean crushing profit was $70.99 per ton, down from $77.68 on December 5 [79]. 3. Argentine Soybeans - **USDA Monthly Report - Argentine Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The USDA December report raised the 24/25 Argentine soybean crushing forecast by 100,000 tons to 4.322 million tons, and the 24/25 ending stocks forecast was lowered to 2.309 million tons. For 25/26, the production forecast was maintained at 4.85 million tons, and the ending stocks forecast was lowered by 100,000 tons to 2.284 million tons [83]. - **Soybean Sowing**: As of the week of December 11, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 58% according to SAGyP and 58.6% according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The good - rate of sown soybeans was 58%, and the proportion of soil in good moisture condition in the main growing areas was 91% [84]. - **Farmer Sales**: As of the week of December 3, 2025, Argentine farmers' 24/25 soybean export sales increased week - on - week. As of the 49th week of 2025, the 2025 sales progress was 84.7%, and the 2026 pre - sale progress was 6.4% [88][90]. - **Argentine Soybean Crushing Profit**: As of December 12, 2025, the Argentine soybean crushing profit was $2.18 per ton, up from $1.57 on December 5 [93]. IV. Domestic Supply and Demand 1. Soybean Oil Supply and Demand - **Chinese Imported Soybean Procurement Progress**: The weekly procurement progress of Chinese imported soybeans as of December 9, 2025, was provided by McDonald Pelz [95]. - **Port and Oil - Mill Soybean Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 9.37 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 206,000 tons, and the oil - mill soybean inventory in the 49th week was 7.1552 million tons, a 2.51% week - on - week decrease [97]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival and Crushing**: In the 49th week, the domestic full - sample oil - mill soybean arrival was about 1.898 million tons. In the 50th week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0375 million tons, and the operating rate was 56.05% [100]. - **Soybean Oil Trading Volume**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the weekly trading volume of soybean oil was 82,600 tons, down from 136,900 tons in the previous week [102]. - **Soybean Oil Production and Apparent Consumption**: In the 50th week, the soybean oil production of 125 major domestic oil mills was 376,900 tons, and the apparent consumption in the 49th week was 396,100 tons, both showing a decline [105]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of December 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.163 million tons, a 1.34% week - on - week decrease and an 18.40% year - on - year increase [108]. 2. Soybean Meal Supply and Demand - **Soybean Meal Production and Apparent Consumption**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the soybean meal production was 1.6096 million tons, a 0.89% week - on - week decrease, and the apparent consumption as of the week of December 5 was 1.6654 million tons, a 1.42% week - on - week decrease [110]. - **Oil - Mill Soybean Meal Inventory and Feed - Mill Physical Inventory Days**: As of December 5, 2025, the oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a 3.43% week - on - week decrease. As of December 12, the feed - mill physical inventory days were 9.13 days, a 0.64 - day week - on - week increase [113]. - **Soybean Meal Trading and Pick - up**: As of the week of December 12, 2025, the soybean meal trading volume was 912,100 tons, a 30.04% week - on - week increase, and the pick - up volume was 972,640 tons, a 5.55% week - on - week increase [116]. - **Downstream Demand**: The losses in self - breeding and self - raising pig farming and purchased - piglet farming slightly improved. As of December 3, the national pig ex - factory price and the pig - grain ratio both declined [118][120]. - **Soybean Meal Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: As of December 12, the registered quantity of DCE soybean meal warehouse receipts was 23,830 lots [122]. V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, Spread Situations 1. Basis, Calendar Spread, and Cross - Commodity Spread - **Soybean Oil Basis and Calendar Spread**: Relevant data on the basis of Jiangsu, Guangzhou, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, and Tianjin first - grade soybean oil against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil are presented [126][138]. - **Soybean Meal Basis and Calendar Spread**: Data on the basis of 43% soybean meal in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Tianjin against the 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal are provided [136][141]. - **Cross - Commodity Spread**: Information on the 05 spread between soybean oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and the 05 ratio of soybean oil/soybean meal, corn/soybean meal is given [143][145]. 2. FOB Quotes - Quotes for soybean oil, US soybean meal, Argentine soybean meal, and Brazilian soybean meal FOB are presented [147][148][154]. 3. CFTC Positioning - Data on the net long positions of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil managed funds are provided [152][155].

蛋白粕月报 2025/12/05 南美天气较为正常， 大豆进口成本震荡 斯小伟（农产品组） 028-86133280 sxwei@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F03114441 交易咨询号： Z0022498 目录 04 利润及库存 02 期现市场 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 需求端 03 供给端 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 国际大豆：11月美豆震荡为主，中国持续购买及美国国内库销比偏低提供支撑，但全球大豆库销比较高施压上方空间。11月巴西升贴水调涨 10美分/蒲左右，大豆到港成本窄幅震荡。南美大豆主要种植区11月同比偏干，不过12月初降雨恢复，然而巴西东南部及阿根廷大部分产区 预计降雨量持续较少，产区还未达到一帆风顺。USDA预测全球大豆供需格局由供需双增转换成供减需增，全球大豆预测年度库销比从2024年 10月的33%落回到目前的28.94%，这为全球大豆提供了底部支撑，但因为同比仍较高，尚不足以产生CBOT大豆盘面种植利润丰厚的行情，预 计在南美天气没有出现显著问题背景下大豆到港成本仍然震荡为主。 国内双粕：11月国内豆粕现货震荡，基差震荡，期货盘面跟随成本窄幅波动，油厂买船利润小幅亏 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market: With the acceleration of soybean purchases, prices have fallen from their highs. The US soybean market lacks positive support, and the smooth sowing and growth in South America have put pressure on prices. The domestic supply is expected to improve, but the demand remains strong. The market is expected to be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the situation of domestic purchases and the auction of soybean by Sinograin [6]. - The edible oil market: The market is expected to continue to be weak and volatile. The export of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the production is increasing. The US biodiesel has negative news, and the export potential of US soybeans is questioned. The market is under pressure, but there are still potential positive factors. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82]. Summary of Each Section Section 1: Soybean Meal 1.1 Period and Spot Market - As of November 21, the spot price in East China was 2970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2601 contract closed at 3012 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 01 - 40 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [6][8]. 1.2 Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report lowered the US soybean price to 53 cents/bushel, with the ending stocks at 290 million bushels. As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0%, and as of November 19, the new soybean sowing progress in Argentina was 24.6%. In November, the domestic soybean arrivals were normal, and domestic oil mills actively purchased ships for December - January, increasing domestic supply [6]. 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the high inventory of pigs and poultry supported the feed demand, with an increase of over 7% year - on - year. The proportion of soybean meal in the formula increased, and the demand for soybean meal in the fourth quarter is expected to increase by over 5% year - on - year. As of the latest data, the national oil mill soybean inventory decreased to 747.71 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory slightly decreased to 99.29 million tons [6]. 1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was raised to 1150 cents/bushel, and the bottom price was estimated to be around 1000 cents/bushel. Based on current quotes, the domestic soybean meal cost was calculated to be 3185 yuan/ton [6]. 1.5 Market Outlook - The US soybean market is expected to be weak and volatile. The domestic M2601 contract is under pressure, and attention should be paid to domestic purchases and Sinograin's soybean auction [6]. Section 2: Edible Oil 2.1 Period and Spot Market - As of the week of November 21, the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices all declined. The decline was mainly due to factors such as poor exports and increased production of Malaysian palm oil, negative news about US biodiesel, and doubts about the export potential of US soybeans [82][83]. 2.2 Palm Oil - The MPOB October report showed an increase in both supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil, and the ending stocks rose to 2.46 million tons. In November, exports were weak, and production increased, so Malaysia may continue to accumulate stocks. In China, the palm oil inventory increased to 650,000 tons as of November 14. The market is still looking forward to the import demand from India and the export reduction in Indonesia in 2026 [82]. 2.3 Soybean Oil - The USDA November report had a neutral - to - negative impact on US soybeans. The market is concerned about US soybean exports and the implementation of biodiesel policies. In China, the soybean arrivals have decreased since October, and the soybean oil inventory decreased slightly to 1.1475 million tons as of November 14. In the long - term, the soybean supply is expected to be relatively sufficient [82]. 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Due to the lack of breakthroughs in China - Canada relations, the rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter is tight. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 450,200 tons as of November 14. However, with the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the continuous state reserve sales, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve marginally in December [82]. 2.5 Market Outlook - In the short - term, the domestic edible oil market is at high - level adjustment risk, but the potential positive factors limit the adjustment range. Palm oil is relatively weak, and rapeseed oil is relatively strong. In the long - term, the market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of biodiesel policies and weather conditions [82].

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 16 日 豆粕：美农报告无亮点，关注美豆出口 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 11 月 USDA 供需报告本身偏多，但未提供超预期利多、豆价回调。本次报告下调 2025/26 年美豆单 产、总产量、期末库存等关键数据，美豆平衡表进一步收紧。此外，全球大豆期末库存和库存消费比也下 降，所以报告本身是利多的报告。但由于报告没有出现超额利多：如更大幅度下调美豆单产、上调美豆出 口等情况，所以市场情绪失望、报告出台后美豆价格下跌。我们认为，虽然报告没有提供超预期利多，但 是美豆平衡表偏紧进入常态化，因为产量损失不可逆、但需求损失可逆，若后期美豆出口需求回升、其期 末库存仍存在下降空间。虽然本次报告没有为近期美豆上涨提供进一步动力，但为美豆提供较好支撑。对 于豆粕价格而言，美豆价格依然从成本端影响豆粕。从美豆平衡表偏紧角度，预计两者价格下方空间有 限。从利多驱动角度，目前暂无进一步利多因素，上行动力需要等待市场契机。 后期关注：美豆出口、南美天气。2025 年 10 月 30 日中国商务部发布"中美吉隆坡 ...

Report Title - Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on Meal and Oil [1] Report Date - November 10, 2025 [1] Reported Industries - Bean meal and oil industries Reported Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - For bean meal, with the opening of US soybean imports, costs drive the price up. In the short term, US soybeans are expected to fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but may be slightly stronger. For oils, prices are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for the guidance of supply and demand reports. In the short term, the upside pressure is large, but there is also support at the bottom [2][8][92] Section Summaries 1. Bean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Situation - As of November 7, the spot price in East China was 2990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton weekly; the M2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis price remained unchanged. After China announced the reduction of the import tax rate on US soybeans to 13%, both domestic and foreign markets accelerated their rise, but due to continuous losses in the domestic import soybean crushing profit, the ship - buying progress was slow, causing the US soybean price to fall from its high, and the domestic futures price also followed suit, but with a smaller decline. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate around 1100 cents, and the M2601 contract will operate in the range of [3000, 3100] [8][10] 1.2 Supply - On November 14, the USDA will release the November US soybean supply - demand report. Referring to the previous good - quality rate, the probability of a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit is relatively large, which supports the strong operation of US soybeans. As of November 1, the sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil was 47.1%, lower than 53.3% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in the main producing areas of Brazil will improve, which is conducive to the sowing of soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume in November is normal, but from December to January, due to losses in import crushing profits, the ship - buying progress is slow, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction [8] 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry was at a high level, supporting the feed demand. The year - on - year increase in feed demand was more than 7%. In terms of the formula, due to the improved cost - effectiveness of bean meal and the relatively low price, the proportion of bean meal added increased year - on - year. It is expected that the year - on - year increase in bean meal demand in the fourth quarter will be more than 5%, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of more than 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory of oil mills continued to decrease to 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.39%, and an increase of 1.6005 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 29.06%. The bean meal inventory of oil mills continued to increase to 115,300 tons, an increase of 9840 tons from the previous week, an increase of 9.33%, and an increase of 16,890 tons year - on - year, an increase of 17.16% [8] 1.4 Cost - In the 25/26 season, the US soybean yield per unit increased, and the planting cost dropped to 1135 cents/bushel. Assuming a maximum loss of 150 cents/bushel, the bottom price of US soybeans is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. However, the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is at a low level, and the trend of US soybeans is strong. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has weakened, while that of US soybeans has strengthened. Based on the latest quotes, the domestic bean meal cost price is calculated to be 2960 yuan/ton [8] 1.5 Market Summary and Strategy - After the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, there is no further short - term positive stimulus. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but due to losses in crushing profits and the entry into the inventory reduction cycle, the price is expected to be slightly stronger than that of US soybeans. The M2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of [3000, 3100], and the basis will maintain a weak trend. If the yield per unit is adjusted downward as expected in the supply - demand report on November 14, US soybeans are expected to rise and then fall, with the price center rising, and domestic bean meal prices will follow. The strategy suggestions are to mainly conduct range operations on the M2601 contract; lightly build long positions on the M2605 and M2609 contracts on dips, and hold existing long positions; spot enterprises should sell the basis on rallies and roll long positions [8] 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Situation - As of the week of November 7, the palm oil main 01 contract fell 104 yuan/ton to 8660 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the soybean oil main 01 contract rose 56 yuan/ton to 8184 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 01 contract rose 111 yuan/ton to 9533 yuan/ton. This week, the oil market showed weak palm oil and strong soybean and rapeseed oils, mainly because palm oil was under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October [92] 2.2 Palm Oil - It is estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased by more than 10%, while the export increase was small. The market expects the ending inventory in that month to accumulate to a high of 2.44 million tons, and the MPOB report is expected to be bearish. In early November, the data from SPPOMA showed that the production in Malaysia continued to increase, while the data from ITS showed weak exports, with strong supply and weak demand continuing to pressure the market. In Indonesia, GAPKI estimates that the country's palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 10% year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. The expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, combined with the potential obstacles to the implementation of B50 and the increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, will continue to pressure the palm oil price in the short term. However, after the recent decline in palm oil prices, India has been actively buying ships, and demand has improved. After November, Southeast Asia enters the production - reduction season, and La Nina this year may intensify the reduction, so there is still support at the bottom of palm oil prices. It is expected that the Malaysian palm oil 01 contract will oscillate at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of the support level at 4000 - 4100 and the MPOB report on the 10th. In China, the estimated palm oil ship - buying volumes in October and November are 230,000 tons each, similar to the level in 2024. The palm oil supply from November to December is sufficient. As of October 31, the domestic palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, and it is difficult to significantly reduce the inventory in the short term [92] 2.3 Soybean Oil - Last week, China decided to maintain the 13% import tariff on US soybeans and restored the import access of three US soybean trading companies, injecting some positive sentiment into the market. However, the market is still waiting for the USDA or other official institutions to provide definite evidence of China's large - scale purchase of US soybeans. Currently, the 13% tariff on US soybeans is still higher than the 3% on Brazilian soybeans. China is accelerating the purchase of Brazilian soybeans as the premium of Brazilian soybeans declines, and the lack of details in the soybean purchase signing ceremony in Shanghai last Thursday has intensified the market's cautious sentiment towards soybean demand. It is expected that US soybeans will enter an oscillating phase after the previous rise. The 01 contract is temporarily expected to test the support level at 1100. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September exceeded 12 million tons, and the oil mills maintained a high operating rate. As of the week of October 31, the soybean oil inventory remained at a high of 1.2158 million tons, and the supply pressure continued to suppress prices. In the long term, the soybean import volume has gradually declined since October compared with the peak in the second and third quarters, which is conducive to the slow reduction of domestic soybean oil inventory. However, China previously imported a large amount of soybeans from Argentina when Argentina取消 its export tax, and US soybeans can also enter China again. The long - term soybean supply is still sufficient, which limits the speed of soybean oil inventory reduction [92] 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian Prime Minister said that it is difficult to cancel the tariff on China in the short term, which has cooled the market's expectation of the rapid normalization of Sino - Canadian relations and the end of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed. The market has started to trade the fundamental situation of tight rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter again. Without the import of Canadian rapeseed, the rapeseed supply and demand will remain tight in the fourth quarter. The coastal rapeseed inventory has dropped to an extremely low level, causing most rapeseed crushing plants to shut down after the National Day. With the reduction in supply, domestic rapeseed oil is in the process of slow inventory reduction. As of October 31, the inventory dropped to 516,000 tons. Although the import of Australian rapeseed and Russian oil in November will help supplement the supply, China's ability to process Australian rapeseed is limited, and it is the peak season for oil consumption. The marginal improvement in supply and demand in the fourth quarter may be limited. However, it should be noted that the general direction of Sino - Canadian relations is still gradually improving, but there may be various twists and turns in the negotiations between the two countries. With the continuous existence of policy - related risks, the upward space for rapeseed oil prices is also limited [92] 2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short term, due to the expected large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, the expected over - increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, the unclear prospects of B50, the market's wait for China to officially start large - scale purchases of US soybeans, and the general improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations, the upside pressure on oils is large. However, the expectation of palm oil production reduction in Southeast Asia starting from November still exists. La Nina is unfavorable to the growth of palm oil in Southeast Asia and soybeans in South America. The US soybean price has rebounded due to the expected improvement in Chinese demand, and the supply and demand of rapeseed in China's fourth quarter are still tight, so there is also support at the bottom of prices, and the overall trend is bottom - building. In the future, pay attention to whether the MPOB report on the 10th shows a large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October and whether the USDA report on the 14th evening will lower the ending inventory of new - crop US soybeans. Among the varieties, rapeseed oil and soybean oil are stronger than palm oil. In the long term, pay attention to the implementation of the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction amplitude of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and whether the La Nina weather speculation in South America can be launched. It is expected that the oil market will fluctuate widely. The strategy suggestions are to pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9300 - 9400 for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils respectively, and not to blindly chase short positions. For the arbitrage side, stop the profit - taking on the strategy of widening the spread between the 01 contracts of soybean and palm oils [92]