长江期货粕类油脂周报 2025-11-24 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖团队】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 01 02 油脂：继续偏弱震荡，关注前期支撑位表 现 豆粕：买船推进加快，价格高位回落 目 录 01 豆粕：买船推进加快，价格高位回落 01 豆粕：买船推进加快，价格高位回落 资料来源：同花顺 USDA 长江期货饲料养殖中心 ◆ 期现端：截止11月21日，华东现货报价2970元/吨，周度下跌50元/吨；M2601合约收盘至3012元/吨，周度下跌80元/吨；基差报价 01-40元/吨，基差上涨30元/吨。周度美豆高位回落，短期美豆无利多支撑叠加南美播种生长顺利，美豆上方承压；巴西升贴水报价 走弱，国内进口压榨利润改善，油厂买船加快，打压连盘价格表现。 ◆ 供应端：USDA11月供需报告下调美豆至53美分/蒲，单产高于市场预期；结转库存下调至2.9亿蒲，低于9月预估的3亿蒲，美豆整体 供需收紧，但程度有限；截至11月15日，巴西大豆播种率为69.0%，上周为58.4%，去年同期为73.8 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 16 日 豆粕：美农报告无亮点，关注美豆出口 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 11 月 USDA 供需报告本身偏多，但未提供超预期利多、豆价回调。本次报告下调 2025/26 年美豆单 产、总产量、期末库存等关键数据，美豆平衡表进一步收紧。此外，全球大豆期末库存和库存消费比也下 降，所以报告本身是利多的报告。但由于报告没有出现超额利多：如更大幅度下调美豆单产、上调美豆出 口等情况，所以市场情绪失望、报告出台后美豆价格下跌。我们认为，虽然报告没有提供超预期利多，但 是美豆平衡表偏紧进入常态化，因为产量损失不可逆、但需求损失可逆，若后期美豆出口需求回升、其期 末库存仍存在下降空间。虽然本次报告没有为近期美豆上涨提供进一步动力，但为美豆提供较好支撑。对 于豆粕价格而言，美豆价格依然从成本端影响豆粕。从美豆平衡表偏紧角度，预计两者价格下方空间有 限。从利多驱动角度，目前暂无进一步利多因素，上行动力需要等待市场契机。 后期关注：美豆出口、南美天气。2025 年 10 月 30 日中国商务部发布"中美吉隆坡 ...

Report Title - Yangtze River Futures Weekly Report on Meal and Oil [1] Report Date - November 10, 2025 [1] Reported Industries - Bean meal and oil industries Reported Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided Core Views - For bean meal, with the opening of US soybean imports, costs drive the price up. In the short term, US soybeans are expected to fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but may be slightly stronger. For oils, prices are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for the guidance of supply and demand reports. In the short term, the upside pressure is large, but there is also support at the bottom [2][8][92] Section Summaries 1. Bean Meal 1.1 Price and Market Situation - As of November 7, the spot price in East China was 2990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton weekly; the M2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton weekly; the basis price remained unchanged. After China announced the reduction of the import tax rate on US soybeans to 13%, both domestic and foreign markets accelerated their rise, but due to continuous losses in the domestic import soybean crushing profit, the ship - buying progress was slow, causing the US soybean price to fall from its high, and the domestic futures price also followed suit, but with a smaller decline. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate around 1100 cents, and the M2601 contract will operate in the range of [3000, 3100] [8][10] 1.2 Supply - On November 14, the USDA will release the November US soybean supply - demand report. Referring to the previous good - quality rate, the probability of a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit is relatively large, which supports the strong operation of US soybeans. As of November 1, the sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil was 47.1%, lower than 53.3% in the same period last year. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in the main producing areas of Brazil will improve, which is conducive to the sowing of soybeans. In China, the soybean arrival volume in November is normal, but from December to January, due to losses in import crushing profits, the ship - buying progress is slow, and there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction [8] 1.3 Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, and the inventory of pigs and poultry was at a high level, supporting the feed demand. The year - on - year increase in feed demand was more than 7%. In terms of the formula, due to the improved cost - effectiveness of bean meal and the relatively low price, the proportion of bean meal added increased year - on - year. It is expected that the year - on - year increase in bean meal demand in the fourth quarter will be more than 5%, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of more than 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory of oil mills continued to decrease to 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 5.39%, and an increase of 1.6005 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 29.06%. The bean meal inventory of oil mills continued to increase to 115,300 tons, an increase of 9840 tons from the previous week, an increase of 9.33%, and an increase of 16,890 tons year - on - year, an increase of 17.16% [8] 1.4 Cost - In the 25/26 season, the US soybean yield per unit increased, and the planting cost dropped to 1135 cents/bushel. Assuming a maximum loss of 150 cents/bushel, the bottom price of US soybeans is expected to be around 980 cents/bushel. However, the US soybean inventory - to - sales ratio is at a low level, and the trend of US soybeans is strong. With the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the premium of Brazilian soybeans has weakened, while that of US soybeans has strengthened. Based on the latest quotes, the domestic bean meal cost price is calculated to be 2960 yuan/ton [8] 1.5 Market Summary and Strategy - After the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, there is no further short - term positive stimulus. It is expected that US soybeans will fluctuate widely, and domestic bean meal prices will follow, but due to losses in crushing profits and the entry into the inventory reduction cycle, the price is expected to be slightly stronger than that of US soybeans. The M2601 contract is expected to operate in the range of [3000, 3100], and the basis will maintain a weak trend. If the yield per unit is adjusted downward as expected in the supply - demand report on November 14, US soybeans are expected to rise and then fall, with the price center rising, and domestic bean meal prices will follow. The strategy suggestions are to mainly conduct range operations on the M2601 contract; lightly build long positions on the M2605 and M2609 contracts on dips, and hold existing long positions; spot enterprises should sell the basis on rallies and roll long positions [8] 2. Oils 2.1 Price and Market Situation - As of the week of November 7, the palm oil main 01 contract fell 104 yuan/ton to 8660 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the soybean oil main 01 contract rose 56 yuan/ton to 8184 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 01 contract rose 111 yuan/ton to 9533 yuan/ton. This week, the oil market showed weak palm oil and strong soybean and rapeseed oils, mainly because palm oil was under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October [92] 2.2 Palm Oil - It is estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia in October increased by more than 10%, while the export increase was small. The market expects the ending inventory in that month to accumulate to a high of 2.44 million tons, and the MPOB report is expected to be bearish. In early November, the data from SPPOMA showed that the production in Malaysia continued to increase, while the data from ITS showed weak exports, with strong supply and weak demand continuing to pressure the market. In Indonesia, GAPKI estimates that the country's palm oil production in 2025 will increase by 10% year - on - year, exceeding market expectations. The expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, combined with the potential obstacles to the implementation of B50 and the increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, will continue to pressure the palm oil price in the short term. However, after the recent decline in palm oil prices, India has been actively buying ships, and demand has improved. After November, Southeast Asia enters the production - reduction season, and La Nina this year may intensify the reduction, so there is still support at the bottom of palm oil prices. It is expected that the Malaysian palm oil 01 contract will oscillate at a low level in the short term. Pay attention to the performance of the support level at 4000 - 4100 and the MPOB report on the 10th. In China, the estimated palm oil ship - buying volumes in October and November are 230,000 tons each, similar to the level in 2024. The palm oil supply from November to December is sufficient. As of October 31, the domestic palm oil inventory was 592,800 tons, and it is difficult to significantly reduce the inventory in the short term [92] 2.3 Soybean Oil - Last week, China decided to maintain the 13% import tariff on US soybeans and restored the import access of three US soybean trading companies, injecting some positive sentiment into the market. However, the market is still waiting for the USDA or other official institutions to provide definite evidence of China's large - scale purchase of US soybeans. Currently, the 13% tariff on US soybeans is still higher than the 3% on Brazilian soybeans. China is accelerating the purchase of Brazilian soybeans as the premium of Brazilian soybeans declines, and the lack of details in the soybean purchase signing ceremony in Shanghai last Thursday has intensified the market's cautious sentiment towards soybean demand. It is expected that US soybeans will enter an oscillating phase after the previous rise. The 01 contract is temporarily expected to test the support level at 1100. In China, the soybean arrival volume in September exceeded 12 million tons, and the oil mills maintained a high operating rate. As of the week of October 31, the soybean oil inventory remained at a high of 1.2158 million tons, and the supply pressure continued to suppress prices. In the long term, the soybean import volume has gradually declined since October compared with the peak in the second and third quarters, which is conducive to the slow reduction of domestic soybean oil inventory. However, China previously imported a large amount of soybeans from Argentina when Argentina取消 its export tax, and US soybeans can also enter China again. The long - term soybean supply is still sufficient, which limits the speed of soybean oil inventory reduction [92] 2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian Prime Minister said that it is difficult to cancel the tariff on China in the short term, which has cooled the market's expectation of the rapid normalization of Sino - Canadian relations and the end of the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed. The market has started to trade the fundamental situation of tight rapeseed supply in the fourth quarter again. Without the import of Canadian rapeseed, the rapeseed supply and demand will remain tight in the fourth quarter. The coastal rapeseed inventory has dropped to an extremely low level, causing most rapeseed crushing plants to shut down after the National Day. With the reduction in supply, domestic rapeseed oil is in the process of slow inventory reduction. As of October 31, the inventory dropped to 516,000 tons. Although the import of Australian rapeseed and Russian oil in November will help supplement the supply, China's ability to process Australian rapeseed is limited, and it is the peak season for oil consumption. The marginal improvement in supply and demand in the fourth quarter may be limited. However, it should be noted that the general direction of Sino - Canadian relations is still gradually improving, but there may be various twists and turns in the negotiations between the two countries. With the continuous existence of policy - related risks, the upward space for rapeseed oil prices is also limited [92] 2.5 Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short term, due to the expected large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October, the expected over - increase in production in Indonesia in 2025, the unclear prospects of B50, the market's wait for China to officially start large - scale purchases of US soybeans, and the general improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations, the upside pressure on oils is large. However, the expectation of palm oil production reduction in Southeast Asia starting from November still exists. La Nina is unfavorable to the growth of palm oil in Southeast Asia and soybeans in South America. The US soybean price has rebounded due to the expected improvement in Chinese demand, and the supply and demand of rapeseed in China's fourth quarter are still tight, so there is also support at the bottom of prices, and the overall trend is bottom - building. In the future, pay attention to whether the MPOB report on the 10th shows a large - scale inventory accumulation in Malaysia in October and whether the USDA report on the 14th evening will lower the ending inventory of new - crop US soybeans. Among the varieties, rapeseed oil and soybean oil are stronger than palm oil. In the long term, pay attention to the implementation of the biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the United States, the reduction amplitude of palm oil production in Southeast Asia, and whether the La Nina weather speculation in South America can be launched. It is expected that the oil market will fluctuate widely. The strategy suggestions are to pay attention to the support levels of 7900 - 8000, 8450 - 8500, and 9300 - 9400 for the 01 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils respectively, and not to blindly chase short positions. For the arbitrage side, stop the profit - taking on the strategy of widening the spread between the 01 contracts of soybean and palm oils [92]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Soybean**: In the short - term, US soybeans are in a moderately strong oscillation, waiting for further guidance on the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations and the harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybeans are in a narrow - range oscillation, affected by the US soybean trend, the cost of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, influenced by factors such as the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported soybeans [11]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal is oscillating and rising, driven by the US soybean trend. However, the short - term demand slump and the spot price discount limit the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, affected by factors such as the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations, the harvest weather in the US, and the arrival of imported soybeans [10]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips The document does not mention specific weekly tips. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, and the domestic soybean meal market is oscillating moderately strongly in the short term and will return to the range - bound pattern in the medium term [13]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China will decrease in November, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will remain high. The demand for soybean meal in November is weak, but the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Positive Factors**: The preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Negative Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remains high in November; South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Positive Factors**: The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the domestic soybean price [16]. - **Negative Factors**: After the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, China starts to purchase US soybeans; the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppresses the soybean price [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the global soybean supply - demand balance sheet from 2015 to 2024, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [21]. 3.4.2 USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Report in the Past Six Months It shows the planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, crushing volume, and the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans in the USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 [22]. 3.4.3 US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress in 2024 The report details the sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024, as well as the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [23][24][25]. 3.4.4 Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress It includes the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons, and the planting progress of Argentine soybeans in the 2024/25 season [26][27][28][30]. 3.5 Position Data The document does not mention position data. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) 3.6.1 US Soybean Market Analysis US soybeans are oscillating and rising due to the preliminary agreement of China - US trade negotiations, but the bumper harvest of US soybeans limits the upward space. The short - and medium - term trends are mainly affected by the weather in South American soybean - producing areas and the implementation of the China - US trade agreement [34]. 3.6.2 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain - **Arrival of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival of imported soybeans in November is decreasing from a high level, and the year - on - year overall shows an increase [37]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high, the soybean meal inventory has a slight increase, the soybean crushing volume remains high, and the soybean meal production in September increases year - on - year [38][40]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The downstream procurement has a slight decrease, and the pick - up volume is decreasing from a high level [45]. - **Pig Farming Inventory**: The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreasing month - on - month. The pig price has stopped falling and started to rise recently, and the profit of pig farming has improved [47][49][53]. 3.7 Market Structure of Meal Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Basis Analysis**: The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot discount has a slight increase [58]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract has rebounded from a low level [60]. 3.8 Technical Analysis 3.8.1 Soybean Technical Analysis The soybean futures are in a narrow - range oscillation. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in an oscillatory state, and the soybean futures are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new market guidance [65]. 3.8.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis The soybean meal futures are oscillating and rising. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the soybean meal futures are in an oscillatory and rebound stage, and the upward space is limited. They are expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, waiting for new guidance from the US and domestic markets [68]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The harvest weather in US soybean - producing areas, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [71][72]. - **Second - Most Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors, the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market is under supply pressure, especially with the mediocre performance of the US soybean demand side, and the pressure on the carry - over inventory in the balance sheet is increasing. The domestic soybean meal market remains in a relatively loose supply - demand situation, and there is still significant pressure on soybean meal. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory is relatively low, and the price is also under pressure. The overall strategy is to be bearish on the single - side, conduct M11 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell call options [4][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The US soybean futures showed a slight rebound this week, mainly affected by the macro - aspect. The demand side of US soybeans still faces great pressure, and the inventory pressure persists. In the South American market, the weather in the Brazilian production area is favorable, the soybean sowing progress is relatively fast, and the overall supply pressure exists. After Argentina restored the tariff, the export pressure improved. The domestic soybean meal market supply - demand is relatively loose, and the spot has strengthened slightly due to the sharp decline in the futures. The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory is low, the oil mill operating rate is low, and the demand is also mediocre, with price pressure [4]. - **Strategies**: The single - side strategy is to remain bearish. The arbitrage strategy is M11 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage. The option strategy is to sell call options [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Macro - aspect Slightly Eased, US Soybeans Oscillated**: The US soybean futures rebounded slightly this week due to the improvement in the macro - aspect. The US production area weather is dry, and the crop harvest is expected to progress well, but the yield per unit may be adjusted downwards. The US soybean export has not improved significantly, while the crushing performance is good, with the September crushing volume estimated at 197.863 million bushels. The demand for US soybean oil has also increased significantly [10]. - **South American Supply is Generally Sufficient, Prices Oscillated at High Levels**: Brazilian soybean prices remained high this week. The sowing progress reached 8.2% as of the week of October 4. The subsequent rainfall is expected to be relatively low, and the crop planting is progressing smoothly. Brazil's soybean export in October is estimated to reach 7.31 million tons. The soybean crushing profit has decreased, and the crushing volume is expected to decline, while the export proportion will increase. Argentina's soybean export pressure has improved [13]. - **Futures Pressure Increased, Spot Slightly Stabilized**: The domestic soybean meal futures continued to decline this week, which supported the spot to some extent. The decline was affected by the macro - aspect and the large subsequent supply pressure. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and the demand for soybean meal remained at a relatively high level, but the overall inventory pressure still exists [16]. - **Limited Demand Support, Rapeseed Meal Futures Continued to Decline**: The domestic rapeseed meal futures faced increasing downward pressure this week. The supply of domestic rapeseed tightened, and the inventory decreased to a low level. The demand for rapeseed meal was mediocre, and the inventory of granular rapeseed meal was relatively sufficient, with overall pressure still present [19]. Fundamental Data Changes - **International Market**: The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, weekly crushing profit, Brazilian monthly export volume and crushing volume, Argentine export and monthly crushing volume, and foreign basis [23][26]. - **Macro - aspect: Exchange Rate & International Shipping**: It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the Brazilian real, and the Argentine peso, as well as the shipping freight rates from the US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina to China [33][37]. - **Supply**: The data shows the import volume and weekly crushing volume of soybeans and rapeseeds [42]. - **Demand Side**: It includes the提货 volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [45]. - **Inventory**: The inventory data of soybeans, rapeseeds, soybean meal, and rapeseeds + rapeseed meal are presented [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - International aspect: Sino-US trade conflict has escalated again, and China has not purchased US soybeans. There are concerns about soybean procurement during the APEC meeting at the end of the month. China's large - scale procurement from Argentina has narrowed the supply gap from November to January. The US government shutdown has led to a suspension of data release, and the market expects a slight reduction in the US soybean yield per acre in the October USDA report. Brazil's continuous precipitation is conducive to sowing [3][76]. - Domestic aspect: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no soybean procurement agreement is reached between China and the US, policy adjustments will be concerned. After the holiday, the oil - mill crushing rate is expected to gradually recover, and the domestic supply peak may occur in October, with sufficient current spot supply [3][76]. - Outlook: Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing. The US soybean yield may be adjusted downwards, but it is under pressure due to harvesting and weak export demand. There are still procurement gaps from November to January in China. Pay attention to the Sino - US negotiation during the APEC meeting and policy - end soybean release. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose, with spot prices under pressure. The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [3][77]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review of Soybean Meal - Since September, soybean meal has shown a weakening trend. By the end of September, the 01 - contract of soybean meal, South China's spot price, and the CBOT November - contract of US soybeans all declined. In the first half of August, the price fluctuated slightly due to sufficient domestic soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operation rates, and concerns about future supply. In the second half of September, it declined due to Sino - US trade sentiment and China's large - scale procurement from Argentina [9]. 2. International Aspect 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the USDA September report, the global soybean production in 2025/2026 is 425.88 million tons, a decrease of 520,000 tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 366.63 million tons, a decrease of 1.08 million tons. The ending inventory is 123.99 million tons, a decrease of 910,000 tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 29.25% [15]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The September USDA report is slightly bearish. In 2025/2026, the US soybean planting area increased by 200,000 acres to 81.1 million acres, the yield per acre decreased slightly to 53.5 bushels/acre, and the production is estimated to be 4.301 billion bushels. The crushing demand increased by 15 million bushels to 2.555 billion bushels, the export demand decreased by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, and the ending inventory increased slightly to 300 million bushels [22]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of September 28, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 19%, the good - to - excellent rate was 62%, and the defoliation rate was 79%. Due to the government shutdown, the weekly crop growth report was suspended. As of October 5, the harvest progress was estimated to be 39%. Future precipitation is generally conducive to harvesting [28]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - In August 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels, higher than expected. From September 2024 to August 2025, the cumulative crushing volume increased by 5.81% year - on - year. As of September 26, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.84 dollars/bushel [30]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of September 18, 2025, the US soybean net export sales in the current market year were 724,000 tons. The cumulative export sales in the 2025/2026 season were 9.42 million tons, and China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans [31]. 2.6 Brazil's Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - In the 2025/2026 season, Brazil's soybean production remains at 175 million tons, export demand is 112 million tons, crushing demand is 58 million tons, ending inventory is 37.26 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.38%. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume was 9.34 million tons. As of early October, the sowing progress was 8.2% on average, and future precipitation is conducive to sowing [36][40][43]. 2.7 Argentina's Soybean Situation - In the 2025/2026 season, Argentina's soybean production remains at 48.5 million tons, export demand increases by 200,000 tons to 6 million tons, crushing demand decreases by 600,000 tons to 42.4 million tons, ending inventory is 23.85 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 42.66%. After Argentina suspended the soybean export tax in September, China purchased nearly 2.3 million tons [51][54]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Imported Soybeans and Others - In August 2025, China imported 12.28 million tons of soybeans. As of September 23, the procurement progress of November, December, and January shipments was 36%, 2.9%, and 0% respectively. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November are 10 million, 9 million, and 8.5 million tons respectively [57]. 3.2 Domestic Oil - Mill Inventory - As of September 26, 2025, the main oil - mill soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, and the unfulfilled contracts were 4.1017 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 9.385 million tons. The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 172,160 tons, and the daily提货量 was 189,330 tons [62][63]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The proportion of corn in compound feed was 32.9%, and the proportion of soybean meal in compound and concentrated feed was 14.3% [66]. 4. Summary and Outlook - International: Sino - US trade conflict has escalated, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The supply gap from November to January has narrowed. Pay attention to policy and international procurement. The US soybean harvest is expected to progress smoothly, but there are concerns about exports. Brazil's precipitation is beneficial for sowing [76]. - Domestic: As of the end of September, the procurement progress of soybean shipments from November to January is different. If no procurement agreement is reached, pay attention to policy adjustments. After the holiday, the oil - mill operation rate will recover, and the supply is generally loose [76]. - Outlook: The Dalian soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in October [77].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural Rural Ministry's September supply - demand report predicts China's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 21.09 million tons. With the new - season harvest, the supply is abundant, pressuring the spot and futures prices. Although the futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, the future price pressure remains significant [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and potential acquisition policies, showing a high potential for a bottom - out and rebound. The mid - and downstream acquisition entities can gradually build forward inventories during the price bottoming and grinding process in the fourth quarter [5]. - The resumption of auctions has a diminishing impact on the futures market. Attention should be paid to the auction results on the 29th [2][7]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The new - season harvest has led to an abundant supply, weakening the spot and futures prices. The futures market rebounded this week due to short - covering, but the 11 - contract's rebound may be difficult to sustain. The price in the Heilongjiang main production area has declined, and further pressure is expected [2]. - The 2603 and later contracts on the futures side may benefit from the release of selling pressure and acquisition policies. The uncertainty of US soybean imports may have a neutral - to - positive impact on domestic soybean pressing demand [5]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in a downward relay. New orders can consider short - selling on rebounds. The 2511 selling hedging strategy for planting entities can be held until the spot grain is sold. The previously sold call option with the underlying a2511 - C - 4050 can also be held [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: During the new - season listing period, there is no recommended basis strategy. The near - month contracts are expected to be more affected by the concentrated listing, while the far - month contracts may be supported by policies and improved demand. Attention should be paid to the calendar spread performance [10][11]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range for the 11 - contract of soybeans in the current month is 3850 - 4000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 31.4% [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration held a meeting on autumn grain acquisition, emphasizing the importance of maintaining market stability. Short - covering led to a continuous rebound in the market [13]. - **Negative Information**: The new - season supply pressure, the decline in new - grain quotes, and the continuation of auction activities are negative factors for the price [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - During the National Day holiday, pay attention to the price trends in the soybean - producing areas as the harvest progresses. Also, focus on the auction results on the 29th [13]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - This week, the soybean futures market showed a significant rebound after hitting a new low. The main 11 - contract rose 31 yuan/ton or 0.79% this week. The trading volume increased significantly, and the open interest decreased substantially. The registered warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 7578 lots. The short - term upward trend is limited, and short - selling on rebounds can be considered [13]. - The basis has returned, but its reference value is limited at this stage. The near - month contracts performed slightly stronger than the far - month contracts this week [18][22]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The new - season soybean price has started low and continued to decline. Considering the reduced planting cost and high - yield expectations, the price is expected to remain under pressure during the peak listing period. The downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the profit situation is acceptable [27]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - In October, the supply of domestic soybeans will reach a peak. The resumption of auctions increases the supply pressure. The supply pressure may be alleviated by acquisition policies, but the potential short - selling sentiment in the grassroots may delay the price decline [30]. - Attention should be paid to the performance of high - oil soybean planting and the matching between the upstream and downstream industries. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - In October, the edible consumption market may turn from weak to strong. The pressing demand may increase when the raw material price drops. Policy support may be provided to activate domestic soybean pressing demand, but this has high uncertainty [30]. - The lack of US soybean supply provides sales opportunities for domestic soybeans. The edible market is the basic demand, while the pressing market is the major variable in demand [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Global Soybean Market**: The US Department of Agriculture's August report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, leading to a decrease in the new - crop US soybean production both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the decline is limited and difficult to raise the price center. South American old - crop soybeans had a good harvest, and the new - crop Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase year - on - year. The global soybean supply situation is optimistic, but the Sino - US trade tariff issue provides cost support for domestic soybean meal [4]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Market**: In the short term, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate until the end of September. The agreement to import soybean meal from Argentina restricts the speculation space for far - month contracts. The feed consumption of downstream livestock and poultry has different trends, and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal stimulates the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal. The short - term fundamentals are slightly bullish, but the subsequent harvest pressure may put pressure on prices. Soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range market, and caution is needed when going long [5]. - **Global Rapeseed Market**: The new - season global rapeseed production is recovering, with a significant increase in Canada's rapeseed production. The harvest pressure of new - season rapeseed is gradually emerging [7]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal Market**: The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, but Australian rapeseed may be a supplement. The high port granular rapeseed meal inventory and low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal suppress the price. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance in August - **Soybean Meal**: It first rose and then fell. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the unexpected reduction in US soybean planting area pushed up the price, but then it fell back due to sufficient supply and other factors [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It also first rose and then fell. The anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed pushed up the price, but then it declined due to high inventory and other factors [13]. 2. US Soybean Supply and Demand - **2025/26 New - Crop**: The planting area was unexpectedly reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production was reduced by 43 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The export volume was reduced by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was reduced by 20 million bushels to 290 million bushels [14]. 3. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - **Brazil**: The 8 - month report maintained the estimates of old and new - crop data in July. The export premium of Brazilian soybeans to China is expected to remain firm [15]. - **Argentina**: In the 2024/25 season, the production was increased by 1 million tons to 50.9 million tons, and in the 2025/26 season, the export volume was increased by 800,000 tons to 5.8 million tons [18]. 4. Crop Progress - **US Soybeans**: As of August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 69%, the pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4% [20]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2024/25 production is expected to reach 169.657 million tons, with an increase of 14.8% year - on - year, and the 2025/26 production is expected to reach 176.5 million tons, with an increase of 3% year - on - year [21][22]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2024/25 production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, with an upward revision of 2% [23]. 5. Global Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Global**: The 8 - month USDA report showed that the global rapeseed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [27]. - **Canada**: The production in 2025/26 is expected to be 19.25 million tons, with a slight increase year - on - year [28]. - **EU**: The production in 2025/26 is expected to be 18.539 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.09% [29]. 6. Canadian Rapeseed Situation - **Weather and Exports**: In Manitoba, there was sporadic rainfall and strong convective weather. As of August 17, the export volume decreased to 90,800 tons, and the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [41]. - **Anti - Dumping**: Since August 14, 2025, the margin ratio for Canadian companies has been 75.8% [42]. 7. Domestic Market Conditions - **Soybean Imports**: In July 2025, China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 598,000 tons from June and an increase of 1.813 million tons from July 2024 [45]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of August 22, the national port soybean inventory was 8.898 million tons, and the national oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons [48][53]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Imports**: In July 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 176,000 tons, and the low - erucic - acid rapeseed oil cake import volume was 154,628.215 tons [59][62]. - **Feed Consumption**: In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [75]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: The profit of pig farming declined in August, the profit of laying - hen farming fluctuated slightly, and the profit of white - feather broiler farming remained profitable [85][88].

Report Overview - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August supply - demand balance report is unexpectedly bullish for US soybeans. With a reasonable and stable area estimate, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. The potential for further increases in yield is limited, and the negative impact of weather has mostly been digested. Although there is still room for a decline in US soybean export demand, the extent is expected to be small. It is estimated that the low point of CBOT soybeans may have been reached, and the future trend will be a slight upward - trending oscillation. [6] - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the foreign market. There are multiple bullish factors in the near term. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has restricted imports, and the high tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil is beneficial for soybean meal. The 23% tariff on US soybean imports may last until early November, and China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans. However, Brazilian soybeans cannot fully replace US soybeans in quantity, and the FOB price is rising, so the cost of imported soybeans is likely to increase. In the medium term, soybean meal is expected to remain bullish. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3110, the highest price was 3190, the lowest price was 3090, the closing price was 3163, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.90%. The trading volume was 1,964,008, the open interest was 1,935,807, and the change in open interest was 178,676. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3017, the opening price was 3055, the highest price was 3131, the lowest price was 3038, the closing price was 3106, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.95%. The trading volume was 589,795, the open interest was 644,227, and the change in open interest was - 78,924. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3051, the opening price was 3102, the highest price was 3166, the lowest price was 3071, the closing price was 3138, with an increase of 87 and a rise rate of 2.85%. The trading volume was 189,770, the open interest was 615,306, and the change in open interest was - 14,046. - The US soybean futures contract in the foreign market was strong, with the main contract at 1035 cents. [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the medium - term upward trend of soybean meal and the relatively stable situation of US soybeans, but no specific operation suggestions are provided. 3.2 Industry News - The USDA's August report shows that for the 2025/26 US soybean season, the estimated harvested area is 80.1 million acres (market expectation: 82.561 million acres), the estimated yield per acre is 53.6 bushels (market expectation: 52.9 bushels), the estimated production is 4.292 billion bushels (market expectation: 4.365 billion bushels), and the estimated ending inventory is 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels, market expectation: 349 million bushels). [6][14] - As of August 1, based on reports from US farmers participating in the crop subsidy program, the unplanted area of US soybeans was 1.199 million acres, corn was 1.818 million acres, and wheat was 0.277 million acres. The sown area (including failed sowing) of soybeans was 79.761 million acres, corn was 96.524 million acres, and wheat was 48.671 million acres. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the 09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD - CNY central parity rate, and USD - Brazilian real exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is provided. [10][11][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downside space of the soybean No. 1 futures price is limited. The reasons are as follows: supply growth is slowing down; demand growth is slightly higher than supply growth; and the supply - demand situation is tightening [2][43]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. 2025 H1 DCE Soybean No. 1 Futures Price Review - From January to June 6, 2025, the main contract price of DCE soybean No. 1 futures showed a pattern of "range - bound movement with a rising center of gravity". It experienced four stages: rising from January 9 to March 4 due to factors like rising international soybean prices, policy incentives, and Sino - US trade frictions; falling from March 5 to March 20 because of the local reserve soybean auction in Heilongjiang; rising from March 21 to April 24 due to Sino - US trade frictions and a sharp rise in soybean meal spot prices; and range - bound oscillation from April 25 to June 6, with upward pressure from the sharp drop in soybean meal spot prices and the expectation of state reserve auctions, and downward support from low market surplus grain and stable - to - strong spot prices [6][7][8]. 2. 2025 H2 Factors Affecting the Soybean No. 1 Futures Price 2.1 Supply Side: New Crop Supply Growth Slows, Old Crop Reserve Auctions Supplement Supply - **New Crop Soybean Supply Growth Slows** - In 2025, China's soybean production increased steadily. The sown area was about 1.042 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of about 1%; the yield per unit area was 2,023 kg/ha, a year - on - year increase of about 1%; and the output was 21.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 2%, reaching a record high [10]. - For the 2025/26 period, China's soybean imports remained at a high level, but there were differences in the estimated quantities. USDA estimated an import volume of 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 3.7%, while CAOC estimated 95.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.8%. Overall, the total supply increased but the growth rate slowed down [15][18][20]. - **Old Crop Soybean Reserve Auctions Supplement Supply** - The market surplus grain of soybeans was relatively low, and old crop reserve auctions supplemented the supply. From March to May, local reserve auctions took place, and subsequent state reserve auctions were also expected. As of the week of May 30, the surplus grain of soybeans in Heilongjiang was about 2%, lower than the same period in previous years. The surplus grain in Anhui, Henan, and Shandong was also lower than in previous years. From March to May 2025, the actual transaction volume of local reserve soybean auctions in Heilongjiang was about 455,000 tons, and in Inner Mongolia was about 220,000 tons [23]. 2.2 Demand Side: Market Demand Increases Steadily, Reserve Demand Provides Support - According to the May USDA supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 period, China's domestic soybean consumption was estimated to be 133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1 million tons (about 4% increase). The total demand was 133.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1 million tons (about 4% increase). CAOC estimated that the domestic soybean consumption in the 2025/26 period was 114.15 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 0.35%. The difference in consumption estimates between USDA and CAOC mainly lies in the crushing volume, but overall, the crushing volume remained at a high level. It is expected that the crushing volume of domestic soybeans will increase year - on - year due to low prices, and the crushing volume of imported soybeans will depend on the demand for soybean meal in the domestic breeding industry [30]. - Reserve demand is stable and has regulatory space. China has been continuously purchasing autumn - harvested soybeans. As of March 7, 2025, the purchase volume of soybeans exceeded 10 million tons, a relatively high level in recent years. If market demand is insufficient, reserve demand can increase; if market demand is good, reserve demand can decrease [37]. 2.3 Inventory Side: Global and Chinese Soybean Inventory - to - Consumption Ratios Decline, Supply - Demand Tightens - According to the May USDA supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 period, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of global, US, Brazilian, and Chinese soybeans all declined, indicating a tightening supply - demand situation. In the Chinese soybean supply - demand balance sheet, the supply increment was 5 million tons (about 3% increase), and the demand increment was 5.1 million tons (about 4% increase). The demand growth was slightly higher than the supply, resulting in a slight decrease in the ending inventory and a decline in the inventory - to - consumption ratio [40]. 3. Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The downside of the soybean No. 1 futures price is limited. Supply growth is slowing down both domestically and globally; demand growth is slightly higher than supply growth, with increasing edible demand and stable - to - high crushing demand; and the supply - demand situation is tightening [43]. - In terms of investment outlook, from a trend investment perspective, a strategy of "going long at low levels and rolling long positions" can be considered. When the soybean price is at a phased low, strategies such as "buying on dips" and "buying hedges to lock in costs" can be considered; when the price reaches a phased high, reduce positions and take profits [43].