二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 28 日 豆粕：震荡，规避元旦假期风险 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（12.22～12.26），美豆期价涨跌互现、重心略微上移，期价上涨因为中方采购美豆、期价下跌 因为市场对中方采购仍保持谨慎。从周 K 线角度，12 月 26 日当周，美豆主力 03 月合约周涨幅 1.16%， 美豆粕主力 03 月合约周涨幅 2.02%。 上周（12.22～12.26），国内豆粕期价偏强震荡，豆一期价小幅上涨。豆粕方面，期价偏强主要是周 四市场消息影响：海关通关问题仍有担忧。豆一方面，盘面同样受到周四市场消息影响。此外，国储提价 收购影响偏多，国储抛储抑制上升动能。从周 K 线角度，12 月 26 日当周，豆粕主力 m2605 合约周涨幅 2.01%，豆一主力 a2605 合约周涨幅 1.08%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周（12.22～12.26），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）中方采购美豆数量有限，影响中性偏 空。据新闻讯，12 月 22 日中方采购美豆 ...

2025 年 12 月 16 日 豆粕：美豆小幅收跌，连粕或震荡 豆一：现货稳中偏强，盘面调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4130 | -21 （-0.51%） | 4084 | -58（-1.40%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2758 | -15（-0.54%） | 2748 | -14（-0.51%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1073 | -3.25（-0.30%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕01 （美元/短吨） | 303.9 | +1.9 （+0.63%） | n a | | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | | | 3060～3160， 1-2月/2-3月M2605+380； | 较昨持平至-10； 现货基差M2605+360 ...

Soybeans are trading with Monday midday losses  of 5 to 7 cents. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was 6 cents lower at $10.00 1/2. Soymeal futures are up 90 cent to $1.20, with Soy Oil futures are trading with 68 point gains at midday. USDA reported a private export sale of 136,000 MT to China this morning. More News from Barchart Export Inspections data showed soybean shipments at 795,661 MT (29.24 mbu) shipped in the week that ended on December 11. That was a drop of 22.4% from the wee ...

蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油 脂 基 差 ： 油 脂 油 料 盘 面 价 差 ： 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/03 | 3020 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT soybean January contract rose 4 to close at 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to close at 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 80 to 2510 yuan per ton, a 3.09% decrease [4][7]. - The higher - than - expected soybean crushing volume in the US in October and optimistic export expectations led to a significant strengthening of the outer market at the beginning of the week. As private exporters reported continuous purchases of US soybeans by China, with a cumulative purchase volume of 1.584 million tons during the week, the export expectations were fulfilled and US soybeans declined. The import cost dropped, the spot supply was sufficient, the previously worried about long - term supply gap was filled, downstream buyers purchased a large number of long - term basis contracts, and the Dalian soybean meal futures prices declined from high levels. Rapeseed meal is in the off - season of seasonal demand and declined during the week [4][7]. - Precipitation increased in the central and western regions of Brazil, which was beneficial for improving soil moisture; the Argentine产区 was relatively dry, which was conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture was acceptable. Positive expectations for South American crop yields were maintained. Last week, private exporters reported a total of 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China, effectively supplementing the domestic soybean supply for the December - January shipping period. The trading volume of long - term basis contracts increased. With lower costs, sufficient spot supply, and alleviated concerns about long - term supply, soybean meal prices declined from high levels. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price rose 4 to 1126.5 cents per bushel, a 0.36% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans fell 10 to 491 dollars per ton, a 2.00% decrease; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell 3 to 497 dollars per ton, a 0.60% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market increased 204.75 to 47.01 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 80 to 3012 yuan per ton, a 2.59% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 59 to 2431 yuan per ton, a 2.37% decrease; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal price difference decreased 21 to 581 yuan per ton; the East China soybean meal spot price fell 40 to 3000 yuan per ton, a 1.32% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 50 to 2990 yuan per ton, a 1.64% decrease; the South China spot - futures price difference increased 30 to - 22 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Market**: The US soybean harvest rate as of November 16, 2025, was 95%, compared with 98% last year and a five - year average of 96%. Private exporters reported 1.584 million tons of US soybean exports to China for the 2025/2026 market year. The net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 year as of October 2 was 919,400 tons, in line with expectations. The US soybean crushing gross profit in the week of November 14, 2025, was 2.81 dollars per bushel, up from 2.02 dollars per bushel the previous week. The 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 338.4 dollars per short ton, up from 322.08 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 51.58 cents per pound, up from 48.02 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 11.15 dollars per bushel, up from 11.14 dollars per bushel the previous week. In October, the US soybean crushing volume was 227.647 million bushels, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024, also breaking the monthly crushing record set in December 2024. As of October 31, the NOPA member companies' soybean oil inventory rose to 1.305 billion pounds, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [8][9]. - **South American Market**: As of November 15, 2025, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 69% (Conab data), and 71% (AgRural data), but lagging behind last year's 80% due to irregular rainfall. Brazil is expected to export 4.71 million tons of soybeans in November, up from 4.26 million tons the previous week. As of November 19, 2025, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 24.6%. In the next 15 days, precipitation in the Brazilian soybean - producing areas will be slightly lower than normal, but the increase in precipitation in the central and western regions is beneficial for soil moisture; precipitation in Argentina will decrease in the next two weeks, which is conducive to sowing progress and the soil moisture is sufficient [10]. - **Domestic Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease of 142,400 tons from the previous week but an increase of 2.1711 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 992,900 tons, a decrease of 5700 tons from the previous week but an increase of 214,300 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 5.3507 million tons, a decrease of 650,800 tons from the previous week but an increase of 965,400 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 9.926 million tons, a decrease of 408,000 tons from the previous week but an increase of 3.0947 million tons from the same period last year. As of November 21, 2025, the national daily average trading volume of soybean meal was 242,600 tons, including 70,960 tons of spot trading and 171,640 tons of forward trading, compared with a daily average total trading volume of 222,860 tons the previous week; the daily average soybean meal pickup volume was 190,360 tons, up from 183,700 tons the previous week; the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.3344 million tons, up from 2.0776 million tons the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 7.98 days, up from 7.74 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Secex reported that Brazil exported 2.3021241 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of November, with a daily average export volume of 230,212.4 tons, a 71% increase from the daily average export volume in November last year. The total export volume in November last year was 2.5530339 million tons [13]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be a record - high 177.7 million tons (previously estimated at 178.5 million tons), higher than 172.1 million tons in the previous year. The soybean crushing volume in the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 60.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 58.5 million tons in the previous year. The Brazilian soybean export volume in 2026 is expected to reach 111 million tons, the same as the previous estimate and higher than 109 million tons in 2025 [13]. - As of November 17, the soybean sowing rate in Paraná state was 92%, up 6 percentage points from the previous week but lower than 96% last year. The growth of soybeans improved slightly, with 92% of the evaluated areas in good condition. According to the latest estimate, the soybean harvest in Paraná state in the 2025/2026 season is estimated to be 21.96 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year [14]. - As of November 16, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/2026 year were 1.08 million tons, compared with 1.32 million tons last year; soybean imports were 4.4 million tons, compared with 5.25 million tons last year; soybean meal imports were 6.74 million tons, compared with 7.37 million tons last year; rapeseed imports were 1.4 million tons, compared with 2.44 million tons last year [14]. - S&P Global Energy predicted that the US corn planting area in 2026 would be reduced by 3.8% compared with 2025 to 95 million acres, a decrease of 3.7 million acres; the soybean planting area would be increased by 4% to 84.5 million acres, an increase of 3.4 million acres [15]. - Safras& Mercado estimated that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/2026 season would be 178.76 million tons, a reduction of more than 2 million tons from the September forecast. The soybean production is still expected to reach a record high, a 4% increase from the previous year. In Tocantins state, the yield potential decreased from 3800 kg/ha to 3660 kg/ha, with an expected output of about 5.7 million tons. In Paraná state, due to adverse weather conditions such as tornadoes, the production estimate was adjusted to 21.7 million tons, still higher than the previous year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 1.4% to 48.31 million hectares [15]. - As of November 12, Argentine farmers sold 533,500 tons of 2024/2025 season soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales volume to 39.3662 million tons [16]. - The soybean planting in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil, "steadily" advanced last week, reaching 43% of the estimated planting area, but still lagging behind last year and the five - year average [16]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the trends of US soybean futures contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, RMB spot exchange rates, regional soybean crushing profits, management fund CBOT net positions, regional soybean meal spot prices, soybean meal spot - futures price differences, soybean meal 1 - 5 month spread, South American soybean产区 precipitation and temperature, Brazilian and Argentine soybean sowing progress, US soybean sales and export volume, US oil mill crushing profits, soybean meal trading and pickup volume, port and oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill crushing volume, unexecuted contracts, oil mill soybean meal inventory, and feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days [17 - 47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the oil mill's soybean crushing volume remains high, and the de - stocking pace is slow, so the soybean meal futures market will continue to be weak. The rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills and ports continues to decline, but the weakening aquaculture demand restricts the upward potential of the rapeseed meal futures market [40]. - In the medium - to - long - term, changes in trade relations are still the key driving factors for the supply side of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Futures and spot prices of major feed and aquaculture products in China have shown different trends. The futures prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, corn, and live pigs have declined, while the futures price of eggs has increased. The spot prices of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and eggs have decreased, while the spot price of corn has increased slightly, and the spot price of live pigs has decreased slightly [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **Cost Side** - Weather: In the next 10 - 15 days, North America will be warm and humid, while key agricultural areas in South America, especially southern Brazil and Argentina, face drought risks, which may affect the growth of crops such as corn and soybeans [10]. - US Soybeans: The US soybean harvest progress is slower than in previous years. As of November 16, the US soybean harvest progress was 95%, behind the 98% in the same period in 2025 and the five - year average of 96% [10]. - Brazil: Brazil's soybean exports in November 2025 are expected to reach 4.71 million tons, 101% higher than in November 2025 [10]. - Argentina: As of November 20, the soybean planting rate in Argentina's 2025/26 season was 25%, up from 15% last week but lower than 36% in the same period in 2024 [10]. - **Supply** - Import: In October, China imported no soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. China imported 7.12 million tons from Brazil (a 28.8% year - on - year increase) and 1.57 million tons from Argentina (a 15.4% year - on - year increase). Since the beginning of 2025, China has imported 16.82 million tons of soybeans from the US, a 11.5% year - on - year increase [10]. - Pressing: The weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills decreased to 2.4234 million tons as of November 14, and the soybean pressing profit was - 80.05 yuan/ton as of November 20, a decrease of 39.04 yuan/ton from the previous week [25][26]. - **Demand** - Pressing: The operating rate of oil mills this week increased to 66%, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons and still needs to be reduced [10]. - Transaction: On November 20, the total soybean meal transaction volume of major domestic oil mills was 285,200 tons, a decrease of 115,300 tons from the previous trading day [10]. - **Inventory** - Oil Mill Inventory: In the 46th week of 2025, the soybean inventory, soybean meal inventory, and unexecuted contracts of major domestic oil mills all decreased. The soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a 1.87% decrease from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 992,900 tons, a 0.57% decrease from the previous week [10]. 3.3 Supply Side - Import - As of November 20, the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 490.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous week, and the CNF import price of US West Coast soybeans was 500.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars/ton from the previous week [18]. 3.4 Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of November 20, the soybean pressing profit was - 80.05 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39.04 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of the week of November 14, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.4234 million tons, a decrease of 248,500 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 60%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous week [25][26]. 3.5 Inventory Side - As of November 21, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.2379 million tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week. As of November 14, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 954,500 tons, an increase of 8,600 tons from the previous week [29]. 3.6 Demand Side - As of November 14, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 76,900 tons, the same as the previous week [32]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Supply Side The report shows the historical data of rapeseed imports, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrivals at domestic pressing plants [36]. 3.8 Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side The report presents data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand,提货 volume, apparent consumption, and trading volume in China [38]. 3.9 Strategy Recommendation - Short - term: The soybean meal futures market will continue to be weak, and the upward potential of the rapeseed meal futures market will be restricted [40]. - Medium - to - long - term: Changes in trade relations are the key factors affecting the supply of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [41]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warnings The focus includes产区 weather, trade relations, and the arrival schedule of imported soybeans [42].

Report Summary 1. Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US soybean crushing data alleviates market concerns about US soybean demand, leading to a recovery in US soybean futures prices. However, sufficient domestic supply in China still exerts significant pressure on the upside of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - The continuous growth of Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support for palm oil prices. Nevertheless, uncertainties in the Sino - US trade situation and increased macro - disturbances may put short - term pressure on the oil market [2]. 2. Market Data Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and other products are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the previous day's closing price of soybean oil futures was 8252, with a price increase of 12 and a percentage increase of 0.15% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Data on spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and others are given, including their current values and previous values [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of international futures such as BMD palm oil and CBOT soybeans are presented. For instance, the previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4350, with a price decrease of 70 and a percentage decrease of - 1.58% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices and their percentage changes of various oils and meals in domestic markets are provided, along with their spot basis and spreads. For example, the current spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8450, with a percentage decrease of - 0.12%, and the spot basis is 198 [1]. Import and Profit - **Import Profit Data**: Data on import and profit for various imported agricultural products are given, including current and previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is - 379, compared to the previous value of - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for products such as soybean oil, palm oil, and others are presented. For example, the current warehouse receipt of soybean oil is 26,294, compared to the previous value of 25,444 [1]. 3. Industry Information - The US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported that the soybean crushing volume in September was 197.863 million bushels, a month - on - month increase of 4.24% and a year - on - year increase of 11.6%, setting the fourth - highest record for all months and the highest for the same period in history, far exceeding analysts' expectations [2]. - Due to low prices, US farmers are generally reluctant to sell, which supports the supply side. The US Department of Agriculture has stopped issuing reports due to the government shutdown [2]. - Based on analysts' expectations, as of October 12, the US soybean harvest was 58% complete, higher than the 39% estimated the previous week [2]. - According to SPPOMA, the production of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15, 2025, increased by 6.86% compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 increased by 12.3% month - on - month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: There is no new fundamental driver, waiting for a pullback [1] - Soybean oil: The trading of soybean shortage in the fourth quarter has been suspended, undergoing a pullback and consolidation [1] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 9,344 yuan/ton (down 0.87% during the day, up 0.11% at night), soybean oil主力 at 8,442 yuan/ton (down 0.26% during the day, down 1.07% at night), and other futures prices also showed different changes [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures all decreased [2] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong remained unchanged, soybean oil increased by 10 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi decreased by 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 126 yuan/ton, soybean oil was 318 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was -104 yuan/ton [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different futures contracts of various oils showed different changes [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **USDA Drought Monitoring Report**: As of the week ending August 26, about 11% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 9% the previous week and the same as last year [3] - **USDA Monthly Crushing Forecast**: The estimated soybean crushing volume in the US in July is expected to increase to 621.8 million short tons (2072 million bushels), a 5.1% increase from June and a 7.2% increase from July 2024. The estimated soybean oil inventory at the end of July is 1903 million pounds, a 0.5% increase from the end of June and a 5.2% decrease from July 2024 [4][6] - **Deral**: The rural economic department of Brazil's Paraná state expects the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season to increase by 1% to about 5.8 million hectares, and the output may increase by 4% to about 22 million tons [6] - **South Mato Grosso, Brazil**: The sowing of the 2025/26 soybean crop will start on September 16 and may last until December 31 [6] - **SAGyP**: As of the week ending August 20, Argentine farmers sold 394,200 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 118,900 tons of 2025/26 soybeans, with cumulative sales reaching 29.8956 million tons and 789,600 tons respectively [7] - **Canada Statistics**: The estimated rapeseed output in Canada in 2025 will increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons, with different changes in yield per acre and harvested area in different provinces [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Feed Weekly Report: Brazilian Premiums Rising Continuously, Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Prices May Fluctuate Strongly" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current growth of US soybeans is good, but the rainfall in the eastern part of the Corn Belt and the northern part of the Great Plains in the next two weeks may affect soybean growth [3]. - It is currently the peak season for Brazilian soybean exports, and Brazilian soybean premiums are continuously rising and are currently at a historical high [3]. - Domestic oil mills' purchasing progress for the fourth quarter is still slow, and the market expects a supply gap. This week, there was a large - volume transaction of the far - month basis of soybean meal. The long - term impact of the pig industry's anti - involution on soybean meal demand also needs attention [3]. - Against the background of an expected supply gap of imported soybeans in the domestic market in the fourth quarter, domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - As of August 3, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, which was the same as the market expectation, lower than last week's 70% and last year's 68% [3]. - The Brazilian soybean premium is rising and is at a historical high [3]. - Domestic oil mills' purchasing for the fourth quarter is slow, and there are expectations of a supply gap. The far - month basis of soybean meal had large - volume transactions this week. The long - term impact of the pig industry's anti - involution on soybean meal demand needs attention [3]. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the expected supply gap in the fourth quarter [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - For unilateral trading, the support level of soybean meal 2601 can be referenced at 3000. For options, one can go long on volatility [5]. - For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see for now [5]. - In the outlook, factors to watch include the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal demand, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5]. Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly due to market concerns about a shortage of soybeans in the domestic market in the fourth quarter [14]. - The July USDA report was slightly bearish. It lowered the export forecast of US soybeans for the 25/26 season and raised the domestic crushing volume. The reduction in exports was higher than the increase in crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [14]. - The soybean - rapeseed meal spread fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is advisable to wait and see [18]. - The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is advisable to wait and see [21]. Supply Side - As of July 31, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 467,842 tons [30]. - As of August 1, 2025, the weekly US soybean crushing profit was $2.71 per bushel, a 1.88% increase from the previous week and a 19.58% decrease from the same period last year [36]. - In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase from June 2024. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports were 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand Side - The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig self - breeding and外购 profits, white - feather broiler and laying - hen breeding profits, but no specific demand - related conclusions are drawn [54][63] Inventory - As of August 1, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5559 million tons, a 1.55% increase from last week and a 1.74% decrease from last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a 0.14% decrease from last week and a 26.24% decrease from last year [70]. - As of August 8, the physical inventory days of domestic feed mills' soybean meal were 8.37 days, a 3.77% increase from August 1 and a 14.97% increase from the same period last year [73]. - As of August 1, the coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 116,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons from last week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 27,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from last week. The unexecuted contracts were 46,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from last week [75]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Core View of the Report In July 2025, the price of soybean meal futures fluctuated and consolidated. Looking ahead, the domestic soybean market shows a continuous accumulation of inventory, with port soybean inventory reaching a high level in the same period in recent years. The decline in oil mill crushing volume reflects weak terminal demand, and the drop in imported soybean prices weakens cost support. With ample domestic soybean supply, high soybean meal production, and multiple negative factors such as reduced demand for soybean meal, the price of soybean meal is likely to continue to fluctuate and consolidate [6][9][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In July 2025, the weighted price of soybean meal futures rose 0.64% to close at 2965, and the weighted price of rapeseed meal futures rose 2.98% to close at 2561. Internationally, the continuous price of US soybeans fell 3.09% to close at 996.00, and the price of US soybean meal fell 5.11% to close at 274.60 [6][10]. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA Report Adjustments**: The USDA report shows that the global soybean crushing volume for the 2025/26 season has been increased by 1.12 million tons to 367.71 million tons, mainly due to the increase in US soybean crushing volume. The export volume has decreased by 0.8 million tons to 187.63 million tons, as the increase in Argentine soybean exports cannot offset the decrease in US soybean exports, indicating a change in the global soybean export pattern [7][17][18]. - **US Soybean Supply and Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the US soybean production is estimated to be reduced by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels, while the soybean crush is increased by 50 million bushels to 2.54 billion bushels, and the export is reduced by 70 million bushels to 1.745 billion bushels. The ending inventory is increased by 15 million bushels to 310 million bushels [14][15]. - **Global Soybean Supply and Demand**: The estimated global soybean production for the forecast year is 427.68 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.86 million tons. The demand is 425.17 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.02 million tons. The supply - demand gap is 2.51 million tons, a decrease of 0.28 million tons compared to the same period last year [19]. - **Domestic Market Indicators**: As of July 27, 2025, the oil mill soybean meal inventory was 961,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52,700 tons. As of July 30, 2025, the profit from purchasing piglets for breeding was - 71.39 yuan per head. As of June 2025, the feed production was 29.377 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8.1% [21][22][23]. Cross - Variety Analysis - **Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of July 30, 2025, the spot pressing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 9 yuan per ton, and the spot pressing profit of soybeans in Jiangsu was 93.25 yuan per ton, with the latter at an average level [28]. - **Futures Contract Ratios**: As of July 30, 2025, the ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil and soybean meal was 2.74, at a relatively high level seasonally. The ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and Dalian soybean meal was 0.91, and the price difference was - 275 yuan per ton [30][31]. Outlook for the Future The domestic soybean market has a continuous accumulation of inventory, a significant decline in oil mill crushing volume, and weak terminal demand. The drop in imported soybean prices weakens cost support. With ample domestic supply, high soybean meal production, and reduced demand for soybean meal due to policy adjustments, the price of soybean meal is likely to fluctuate and consolidate [9][32][34].