Macro and Technical Perspectives on Asset Allocation - The macro perspective indicates a bearish outlook on equity assets, while the technical perspective shows an upward trend with moderate valuation and a state of capital outflow [1][5][20] - For bonds, the macro perspective is bullish, but the technical perspective indicates a downward trend [1][5][20] - Industrial products are viewed negatively from a macro perspective, with a downward price trend also noted technically [1][5][20] - Gold assets are favored in the macro view, with a technical upward price trend [1][5][20] Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio + macro indicators + technical indicators combination yielded a return of 10.51% in 2025, with an annualized return of 12.05% since April 2006 [2][21] - The volatility-controlled + macro indicators + technical indicators combination achieved a return of 15.69%, while the risk parity + macro indicators + technical indicators combination returned 6.99% [2][30] Asset Class Analysis - Equity assets are currently under pressure from macro indicators, while technical indicators suggest an upward trend but with capital outflow [20][21] - Bond assets are supported by macro indicators, but technical indicators show a downward trend [20][21] - Industrial products face macro headwinds and technical downward trends [20][21] - Gold assets benefit from favorable macro indicators and an upward technical trend [20][21] Valuation and Capital Flow Indicators - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is at 53.94%, indicating a moderate valuation level [13][14] - The latest capital flow indicator for equity assets shows a net outflow of 316 billion, reflecting a capital outflow state [16][17] Summary of Asset Class Scores - The overall scores for asset classes based on macro and technical indicators show equities at 1, bonds at 3, industrial products at -2, and gold at 2 [19][20] - The combined analysis suggests a bearish outlook for equities and industrial products, while bonds and gold are viewed positively [20][21]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The trend strength of ferrosilicon is -1, and that of silicomanganese is -1, indicating a weak outlook for both [3]. Group 2: Core Views - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a state of weak oscillation due to the game between fundamentals and macro - sentiment [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Futures - Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5494, down 116 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 192,219 and an open interest of 118,081. Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5468, down 108, with a trading volume of 76,428 and an open interest of 116,050. Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5742, down 60, with a trading volume of 79,328 and an open interest of 35,681. Silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5758, down 62, with a trading volume of 176,364 and an open interest of 348,291 [1]. Spot - The price of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5250 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton. The price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 40 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 710 yuan/ton [1]. Spreads - The basis of ferrosilicon (spot - 11 futures) was - 244 yuan/ton, up 66. The basis of silicomanganese (spot - 01 futures) was - 78 yuan/ton, up 60. The near - far month spread of ferrosilicon 2511 - 2601 was 26 yuan/ton, down 8. The near - far month spread of silicomanganese 2511 - 2601 was - 16 yuan/ton, up 2. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 was 248 yuan/ton, up 56. The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 was 290 yuan/ton, up 46 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 30, the price range of 72 ferrosilicon in different regions was 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton, and that of 75 was 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 ferrosilicon was 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1120 - 1150 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton [1]. - In September, the number of operating ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia was 13, with 43 operating submerged arc furnaces. The开工 rate was 48.86%, up 2.27% from August, and the output was expected to be 12.16 tons, down 0.3 tons from August, with a capacity utilization rate of 52.28%. Nationally, there were 76 operating ferrosilicon enterprises with 245 operating submerged arc furnaces in September. The total average开工 rate was 50.88%, down 1.86% from August, and the output was expected to be 47.88 tons, down 0.05 tons from August, up 1.27 tons from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.72%. The cumulative output from January to September 2025 was 410.7 tons, up 2.26 tons from the same period last year, an increase of 0.55% [1][3]. - In September, the output of silicomanganese in the northern main production areas decreased slightly. The total output of silicomanganese in Ningxia was about 20.7 tons, down 0.75 tons from August, and the output of 6517 was about 19.8 tons [3].

Core Viewpoint - The overall macro analysis indicates a bullish outlook for equity and bond assets, while industrial products are viewed negatively. Gold assets are also favored due to positive macro conditions [1][7]. Macro Analysis - Equity assets are supported by favorable macro conditions, with a positive trend and moderate valuation, indicating capital inflow [2][23]. - Bond assets are also favored on the macro level, although they show a downward trend [2][23]. - Industrial products face negative macro conditions, despite a rising price trend [2][23]. - Gold assets benefit from positive macro conditions and an upward price trend [2][23]. Technical Analysis - The latest trend indicators show upward trends for equity, industrial products, and gold, while bond prices are trending down [12][13]. - The equity risk premium (ERP) is at 52.65%, indicating a moderate valuation level for equity assets [16][17]. Asset Performance Tracking - The fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 2.64% as of August 2025, with an annualized return of 11.96% since April 2006 [3][28]. - The volatility-controlled and risk parity combinations achieved returns of 3.50% and 0.79%, respectively, with annualized returns of 9.50% and 9.63% since April 2006 [30][29]. Summary of Indicators - The macro and technical indicators for various asset classes show a low correlation, averaging around 0.17, suggesting that both should be considered in asset evaluation [21][22]. - The total scores for asset classes indicate a bullish stance on equities and gold, while industrial products are viewed negatively [22][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article promotes a series of macroeconomic training sessions organized by Huachuang Macro, scheduled from August 20 to September 6, focusing on various aspects of the economy and financial markets [1][5]. Summary by Sections Training Series Overview - The training sessions will occur daily at 15:30, covering a range of topics related to macroeconomic insights and financial analysis [5][6]. Session Topics and Speakers - **Session 1 (Aug 20)**: Insights into macro "big" directions - Five major concerns, presented by Zhang Yu, Deputy Director of Huachuang Research Institute [8]. - **Session 2 (Aug 21)**: Examination of the "new" economic structure - Ten structural changes, led by Lu Yinbo, Deputy Head of Huachuang Macro Group [8]. - **Session 3 (Aug 22)**: Analysis of deposit migration trends - Three key directions regarding deposits, by Wen Ruoyu, Senior Analyst at Huachuang Macro [8]. - **Session 4 (Aug 25)**: Navigating low interest rate challenges - Optimal solutions in a low-rate environment, presented by Yin Wenqing, Senior Analyst [8]. - **Session 5 (Aug 26)**: Discussion on fiscal "clever" correlations - Ten experiential rules, led by Gao Tuo, Senior Analyst [8]. - **Session 6 (Aug 27)**: Clarifying local fiscal and tax accounts - Local fiscal mechanisms, presented by Yuan Lingling, Assistant Analyst [8]. - **Session 7 (Aug 28)**: Tracking subtle policy changes - Policy observation guide [8]. - **Session 8 (Aug 29)**: Analysis of the US political landscape - Insights into the Democratic and Republican parties, by Fu Chunsheng, Analyst [10]. - **Session 9 (Sep 1)**: Comprehensive export analysis - Multi-dimensional export scanning, led by Xia Xue, Assistant Analyst [10]. - **Session 10 (Sep 2)**: Understanding new dynamics in supply-side reforms - New directions in supply-side reforms, presented by Lu Yinbo [10]. - **Session 11 (Sep 3)**: Logical performance of assets - Review of supply-side reform outcomes, by Fu Chunsheng [10]. - **Session 12 (Sep 4)**: Monitoring exchange rate trends - In-depth exchange rate analysis, led by Xia Xue [10]. - **Session 13 (Sep 5)**: Understanding the reconstruction of order - Strategic multi-gold insights, presented by Li Xingyu, Analyst [10]. - **Session 14 (Sep 6)**: Final session details not specified [12].

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Xue's "Fixed Income +" fund has maintained a flexible and proactive investment style, successfully navigating market volatility and achieving positive returns through strategic asset allocation and risk management [1][20]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - Zhang Xue reduced the equity allocation in her fund from 18.56% in Q4 2022 to 7.41% by the end of Q1 2023, while increasing bond holdings, which helped stabilize the fund's net value amidst market fluctuations [1]. - The emphasis on timing and asset allocation has been a significant source of excess returns for Zhang Xue, who prefers to avoid marginal bets and focuses on risk-reward ratios [2][20]. - Zhang Xue's investment approach includes a preference for growth stocks in the equity portion, such as innovative pharmaceuticals and TMT sectors, rather than traditional dividend stocks [3][20]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Adaptation - Zhang Xue's unique career path, including nearly seven years in banking, has provided her with a broad macroeconomic perspective, which she applies to her investment decisions [6]. - The current low-interest-rate environment has prompted Zhang Xue to seek products that balance risk and return, moving away from purely defensive strategies [19]. - In 2024, Zhang Xue noted that China's long-term bonds have entered a "no man's land," indicating a need for enhanced risk management in her portfolio [7]. Group 3: Research and Collaboration - Zhang Xue benefits from extensive research support from various teams within the company, including macro strategy and equity research, which enhances her investment decision-making process [13][16]. - The collaboration with research teams allows Zhang Xue to effectively navigate complex sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, where she has developed a strong understanding through continuous engagement with industry experts [15][17]. - Zhang Xue's proactive approach includes tracking asset performance over extended periods before making investment decisions, ensuring that her portfolio remains aligned with market dynamics [10]. Group 4: Performance and Philosophy - Zhang Xue's investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of maintaining a balance between risk and growth, believing that China still has significant growth potential beyond traditional dividend-paying stocks [20]. - Her funds have consistently achieved positive returns, with annualized volatility lower than that of similar funds, reflecting her effective risk management and strategic asset allocation [20][21]. - Zhang Xue likens her investment style to that of an off-road vehicle driver, aiming to provide clients with a smooth investment experience despite market challenges [21].

Summary of Conference Call on Steel Industry Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the steel industry, specifically focusing on the performance of rebar and other steel products in the market [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Trends**: - The steel market has shown fluctuations since January, with a small rebound followed by a decline, reaching a peak in mid-January before continuing to drop [1]. - A significant drop occurred around the Qingming Festival in April, attributed to market reactions to monetary policy discussions [2]. 2. **Impact of Policies**: - A meeting on May 8 proposed a package of monetary policies to support economic development, but the market's reaction was negative due to unmet expectations [2]. - Positive developments in US-China tariff negotiations led to a brief market rebound, but the overall market remains influenced by weak capital conditions and high supply [2][4]. 3. **Current Market Conditions**: - The current state of the rebar market is described as weak, with prices supported but not significantly increasing due to high supply and average demand [3][4]. - Steel mills are reportedly operating with a small profit margin of approximately 50 to 100 yuan per ton [3]. 4. **Future Outlook**: - The market is expected to remain weak unless there are significant changes in supply or demand dynamics [4]. - Potential for further declines in prices is anticipated due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances, particularly in late May and June [4]. 5. **Research Framework**: - The analysis framework includes macroeconomic factors, industry analysis, and technical analysis, emphasizing the importance of understanding macro trends in guiding market movements [6][8][9]. 6. **Economic Indicators**: - Key economic indicators such as GDP growth, CPI, and PPI are essential for assessing the economic environment and its impact on the steel industry [10][11]. 7. **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: - The relationship between supply, demand, and inventory levels is crucial, with a noted correlation between demand increases and inventory decreases [17][18]. - Current policies in the steel industry aim to limit production capacity and control crude steel output, impacting supply levels [19][20]. 8. **Investment Trends**: - Fixed asset investment in the black metal industry is influenced by market outlook; positive expectations lead to increased investment, while negative outlooks result in contraction [21]. 9. **Profitability and Production**: - Profit levels significantly affect production decisions; higher profits encourage production, while lower profits lead to reduced output [22][23]. - The profitability of different steel products varies, with hot-rolled steel showing better margins compared to rebar [23]. 10. **Demand Segments**: - The demand for steel is primarily driven by the real estate sector, infrastructure projects, and manufacturing, with current trends indicating a decline in real estate demand [25][26][27]. - Infrastructure investment growth is slowing, and while manufacturing investment remains stable, it is subject to external pressures such as tariffs [30][31]. 11. **Export Dynamics**: - Export volumes are expected to decrease from 11 million tons to 9 million tons, reflecting a competitive pricing environment and external tariff pressures [32]. 12. **Seasonal Trends**: - Seasonal demand patterns are noted, with specific months historically showing increased demand for steel products [34]. Additional Important Content - The discussion highlights the importance of understanding the interplay between macroeconomic policies, industry-specific factors, and technical market indicators in making informed investment decisions [8][9][10]. - The need for continuous monitoring of inventory levels and production costs is emphasized, as these factors directly influence pricing and market stability [15][33].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of major asset classes based on macroeconomic and technical perspectives, indicating a mixed outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold [1][3][19]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic view suggests a neutral stance on equity assets, a favorable outlook for bond assets, a negative outlook for industrial products, and a positive outlook for gold assets [5][19]. - Specific macro indicators such as PMI, CPI, and social financing are analyzed to assess their impact on asset performance [6][19]. Technical Perspective - The technical analysis indicates a downward trend for equity and bond assets, while industrial products and gold show an upward trend [9][10][19]. - The article employs various trend indicators to measure the performance of different asset classes, with historical data supporting the current trends [7][10]. Asset Valuation - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is reported at 73.74%, indicating that equity valuations are relatively low [12][13]. - The analysis of fund flow shows a net inflow of 915 million yuan into equity assets, suggesting a positive sentiment among investors [15][16]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data indicates that a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 1.06% as of June 2025, with an annualized return of 11.86% since April 2006 [2][20][24]. - Different asset allocation strategies, including risk parity and volatility control, have been evaluated, showing varying returns and risk profiles [25][24]. Summary of Asset Class Scores - The combined scores from macro and technical indicators show equities at 0, bonds at 2, industrial products at 0, and gold at 4, reflecting the overall market sentiment and expected performance [18][19].

Core Insights - The current market dynamics and investment strategies are influenced by macroeconomic factors, with a focus on minimizing errors and respecting market trends [1][2][4] - The investment philosophy emphasizes making sound purchasing decisions rather than merely acquiring "good assets" [3] - The integration of AI technology is enhancing research efficiency and decision-making processes within the investment framework [8][9] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The importance of macro analysis is highlighted, as any investment behavior detached from the macro context poses significant risks [2] - The investment approach is centered around a framework that combines various asset classes, aiming for a dynamic balance to optimize returns [4][5] - The philosophy of "less error" in investment decisions is compared to sports, where maintaining a high success rate in critical moments is essential [1][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a profound restructuring of supply and demand, leading to a shift in investment strategies [3] - The concept of "asset scarcity" is discussed, indicating that the demand side has more choices rather than a complete disappearance of assets [3] - The bond market is expected to exhibit a different pattern in 2025 compared to the previous year, with increased volatility [3] Group 3: AI Integration - AI is viewed as a tool to enhance cognitive efficiency rather than a replacement for human analysts, allowing researchers to focus on value-creating tasks [8][9] - The use of AI in generating high-accuracy meeting records and developing complex risk evaluation models is noted as a significant advancement [8] - AI's role in credit research is emphasized, with the ability to analyze vast amounts of data and produce comprehensive reports [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of major asset classes from both macroeconomic and technical perspectives, indicating a generally favorable outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold, while highlighting specific trends and valuation metrics for each asset class [1][3][19]. Macroeconomic Perspective - The macroeconomic indicators suggest a positive outlook for equities, bonds, industrial products, and gold, with specific indicators showing varying degrees of influence on asset performance [5][19]. - The analysis employs T-tests to assess the impact of macroeconomic trends on asset returns, indicating significant differences in average returns under different macro conditions [3][4]. Technical Perspective - The technical analysis indicates that as of May 31, 2025, bond and gold prices are trending upwards, while equity and industrial product prices are trending downwards [9][10]. - Different methods are used to calculate trend indicators for various asset classes, with historical performance data guiding the selection of the most effective methods [7]. Valuation Metrics - The current equity risk premium (ERP) is at 82.51%, indicating that equity valuations are relatively low compared to historical averages [12][13]. - The analysis of funding flow metrics shows that the equity market is experiencing a net outflow of 1.3 billion yuan, suggesting a cautious sentiment among investors [15][16]. Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data indicates that the fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 0.09% in May 2025, with an annualized return of 11.82% since April 2006 [2][20]. - The performance of various asset allocation strategies is tracked, showing that combinations of macro and technical indicators can enhance returns while managing risk [24][25].

Group 1 - The macroeconomic outlook is heavily influenced by political factors, with uncertainty prevailing in the current political climate in the U.S. [7][10] - The expectation of a recession is widespread, leading to a cautious approach among investors, who are looking for opportunities to buy at lower prices [16][17] - The current investment environment is perceived as deteriorating, with a lack of clear, actionable investment opportunities [17][18] Group 2 - The copper market is experiencing a stable demand despite the ongoing tariff discussions, with expectations that the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on copper [21][22] - The U.S. is working to restore supply chains, which is seen as a positive development for the copper market [22] - The overall inventory levels for copper are low in SHFE and LME, while Comex inventories are high, indicating a complex market dynamic [24][26] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to experience fluctuations due to new debt issuance and ongoing economic uncertainties, with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds losing their traditional role as a safe haven [38][39] - The narrative around tariffs is evolving, with market participants beginning to price in the impacts of tariffs on equities [41][48] - The overall asset returns across various categories have been strong since 2023, influenced by fiscal easing and global central bank rate cuts [46][50]