导语 上游行业价格出现回升，中下游仍需更多政策支持。 国家信息中心经济预测部产业经济研究室主任魏琪嘉表示，从总的数据变化看，工业利润的改善与营收增长、成本下降，其他相关财务指标好转等情况是 相互印证、相互匹配的，这也证明了当前工业利润边际改善的加快，对市场预期起到较好的提振作用，也为全年工业利润改善打下了良好的基础。 价格改善是利润增长的重要原因。从量、价、利润率三要素来看，8月生产的韧性、工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）跌幅的收窄和利润率的持续改善，共 同支撑工业企业利润回升。8月PPI同比下降2.9%，降幅比7月收窄0.7个百分点，为今年3月份以来首次收窄；环比则结束连续8个月的下行态势，由7月下 降0.2%转为持平。 综合整治"内卷式"无序竞争已取得积极成效，政策后续如何发力备受期待。 国家统计局近日发布的多项数据显示，相关行业的利润和价格都出现改善。比如，1～8月原材料制造业利润同比增长22.1%，钢铁行业同比扭亏为盈。8 月份光伏、新能源车整车制造价格同比降幅分别收窄2.8和0.6个百分点。 "反内卷"依然是一场持久战。国资委主任张玉卓日前主持召开部分国有企业经济运行座谈会，要求中央企业带头坚决抵制 ...

从分项来看，8月份，规模以上工业企业单位成本下降，营收利润率回升。原材料制造业利润增长较 快，消费品制造业利润由降转增，装备制造业"压舱石"作用明显。与今年前期不同，此次公布的数据显 示，不同规模企业利润均有改善。 扭转了自今年5月以来持续下降态势 9月27日，国家统计局公布数据显示，8月规模以上工业企业利润同比由上月下降1.5%转为增长20.4%， 受此带动，1—8月累计，这一指标同比由上月下降1.7%转为增长0.9%。国家统计局表示，这是宏观政 策发力显效、全国统一大市场纵深推进，叠加去年同期低基数等多重因素作用。 "工业企业利润明显改善。"国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，1—8月份，规模以上工业企业利 润由1—7月份同比下降1.7%转为增长0.9%，扭转了自今年5月份以来企业累计利润持续下降态势。 从三大门类看，1—8月份，制造业增长7.4%，较1—7月份加快2.6个百分点；电力、热力、燃气及水生 产和供应业增长9.4%，加快5.5个百分点；采矿业下降30.6%，降幅收窄1.0个百分点。 从月度看，8月份规模以上工业企业利润两位数增长，由7月份下降1.5%转为增长20.4%，工业企业当月 利润改善 ...

Core Viewpoint - The profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in August showed a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, reversing the previous month's decline of 1.5% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Industrial Profit Recovery - From January to August, the cumulative profit of industrial enterprises turned from a year-on-year decline of 1.7% to a growth of 0.9%, marking a turnaround from the continuous decline since May [2]. - In August, the profit of industrial enterprises experienced a notable improvement, with a two-digit growth rate compared to the previous month [2]. Revenue and Cost Analysis - In August, the operating income of industrial enterprises increased by 1.9%, accelerating by 1.0 percentage points compared to July, while the cost per hundred yuan of operating income decreased by 0.20 yuan, marking the first year-on-year decrease since July 2024 [2]. Profit Margin - The operating profit margin for industrial enterprises above designated size in August was 5.83%, an increase of 0.90 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and raw materials manufacturing sectors significantly contributed to profit growth, with equipment manufacturing profits increasing by 7.2% from January to August, contributing 2.5 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises [4]. - The raw materials manufacturing sector saw a profit increase of 22.1%, accelerating by 10 percentage points compared to the previous month, also contributing 2.5 percentage points to overall profit growth [4]. Performance by Enterprise Size - Profits improved across different sizes of enterprises, with medium and small enterprises seeing year-on-year profit growth of 2.7% and 1.5%, respectively [5]. - Private enterprises outperformed the average profit growth of all industrial enterprises, achieving a profit increase of 3.3%, which is 2.4 percentage points higher than the overall average [5]. Policy Support for Private Enterprises - Recent policies in various regions, such as the Shanghai Municipal People's Congress passing the "Regulations on Promoting the Private Economy," aim to ensure fair market competition for all economic organizations, particularly benefiting private enterprises [5]. - Measures in Tianjin to support high-quality development of venture capital and technology finance are also aimed at fostering the growth of private enterprises [6].

广发宏观周度述评（第32期） 广发宏观周度述评 （第1-31期，复盘必读） 内容 第一，年内第三轮政策集中发力期。 2025年以来，宏观经济政策经历两轮集中发力。 第一轮是年初，侧重点是居民部门预期。抓手之一是"两新"加力。1月5日《2025年加力扩围实施大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新政策的通知》落地 ；抓手之二 是落实地产领域政策，1月1日后各地批量下调存量贷款利率、优化住房公积金政策 ；抓手之三是巩固资本市场预期。1月24日六部门印发实施方案大力推动中长 期资金入市 。 从现实效果来看，一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，出口高开、地产好转、"两新"高增是背后的主要驱动。 第二轮是5月，侧重点是金融条件。抓手之一是货币政策放松，5月7日国新办发布会宣布了包括降准、降息、结构性货币政策工具扩容在内的一揽子政策 ；抓手之 二是加快"两重"项目落地，5月20日发改委发布会表示将推动一大批"两重"项目开工投产 ；抓手之三是进一步推动金融支持科技，七部委联合印发《加快构建科 技金融体制 有力支撑高水平科技自立自强的若干政策举措》的通知 。 从现实效果来看，二季度GDP同比增长5.2%，在海外关税的扰动下依然保持了较明显的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - policies continue to exert force, and structural adjustment is advancing steadily. In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate is not expected to decline significantly. Structural issues such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise. Bond yields and the stock market are expected to rise continuously. [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Overall Situation - **Production**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.37% month - on - month. The equipment manufacturing industry continued to support industrial production, with its added value increasing by 8.1% year - on - year. The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued, and the added value of high - tech manufacturing increased by 9.3% year - on - year. [3] - **Consumption**: In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 396.68 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% and a month - on - month increase of 0.17%. The third batch of consumer goods "trade - in" policy funds were issued, and the retail sales of related "trade - in" goods continued to grow rapidly. The catering revenue stabilized and rebounded. [4] - **Investment**: From January to August, fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year. The "two - heavy" construction advanced steadily, with infrastructure investment increasing by 2.0% year - on - year. Real estate investment accelerated to find the bottom, with the real estate development investment decreasing by 12.9% year - on - year, and the sales area and sales amount of newly built commercial housing both declining. The National Real Estate Climate Index further declined to 93.05. [5] Market - After the economic data was released at 10:00, the bond market continued the repair market under the support of fundamentals, and the long - term yield fluctuated downward. After the futures closed at noon, the long - term yield rose rapidly, possibly due to the intensification of policies to expand service consumption. [6] Bond Market View - With the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, the view is maintained that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate will not decline significantly, structural issues such as prices will improve, and bond yields and the stock market will rise continuously. [7]

人民财讯9月15日电，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖9月15日在国新办发布会上说，综合来看，随着宏观 政策持续发力，三季度我国经济运行有望保持稳中有进发展态势。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guoxin Futures Non-ferrous (Nickel) Weekly Report" dated August 31, 2025 [3] Group 2: Core View - The report states that the market is at the bottom range and will continue to fluctuate. The US market anticipates Fed policy easing with over 80% probability of a September rate - cut. In China, macro - policies will continue to exert force. The refined nickel market has a supply surplus, the nickel ore market is calm with ample supply, the nickel sulfate price is weak, and the stainless - steel market has a slightly improved profit and demand expectation but weak reality and slow de - stocking. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [2][36] Group 3: Market Review - This part shows the trend of the main price contracts of the domestic and foreign nickel futures markets through a chart of nickel futures closing prices (main contract) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [7][8] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Upstream - It presents the China's nickel ore port inventory through a chart of China's imported nickel ore sand and concentrates from the Philippines on a monthly basis, with the inventory range from 0 to 6 million tons [12][13] Midstream - **Electrolytic nickel price**: A chart shows the price of electrolytic nickel (1, Ni99.90, domestic and imported) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 300,000 yuan/ton [15][16] - **Nickel sulfate price**: A chart shows the average price of nickel sulfate in China from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025, with the price range from 0 to 70,000 yuan/ton [17][18] - **Ferronickel import volume and price**: Charts show China's monthly ferronickel import volume (ranging from 0 to 1 million tons) and the Fubao price of 8 - 12% ferronickel (ranging from 0 to 1,800 yuan/nickel) from December 31, 2020, to June 30, 2025 [19][20] Downstream - **Stainless - steel price**: A chart shows the closing price of stainless - steel futures (continuous) from 0 to 25,000 yuan/ton [21][22] - **Stainless - steel futures positions**: A chart shows the stainless - steel futures positions from 0 to 400,000 lots [23][24] - **Wuxi stainless - steel inventory**: Charts show the Wuxi stainless - steel inventory and Wuxi 300 - series stainless - steel inventory, both ranging from 0 to 800,000 tons [25][26] - **Power and energy - storage battery production**: Charts show the monthly production of power and energy - storage batteries (ternary materials) and the total monthly production of power and energy - storage batteries in China, both ranging from 0 to 140,000 MWh [28][29] - **New - energy vehicle production**: A chart shows the monthly production of new - energy vehicles in China, ranging from 0 to 140,000 vehicles [30][31] Group 5: Future Outlook - In the US, on August 29, Fed Governor Waller supported a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the September meeting and expected further cuts in the next 3 - 6 months. In China, the Politburo meeting on July 30 stated that macro - policies should continue to exert force. The Shanghai nickel market showed a fluctuating upward trend this week. The refined nickel market has a supply surplus, the nickel ore market is calm with ample supply, the nickel sulfate price is weak, and the stainless - steel market has a slightly improved profit and demand expectation but weak reality and slow de - stocking. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is approximately 116,000 to 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the stainless - steel main contract is about 12,600 to 13,500 yuan/ton [36]

Group 1 - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies is set to begin on September 1, with an annual subsidy rate of 1% to support consumption [1] - The monetary policy has been moderately eased, with a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity, and a 0.1% decrease in policy interest rates, keeping loan costs low for enterprises and individuals [1] - By the end of June, the amount of loans signed for technological innovation and technological transformation exceeded 2 trillion yuan, which is 2.4 times the amount at the end of 2024, supporting 1.8 million technology-based SMEs in obtaining their first loans [1] Group 2 - The central government has allocated approximately 90 billion yuan in the budget this year to support local governments in issuing childcare subsidies, benefiting over 20 million families with infants and young children [2] - Starting from the autumn semester, kindergarten tuition fees will be waived for children in the final year, benefiting around 12 million children and reducing the financial burden on families by approximately 20 billion yuan [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation to achieve high-quality development and address current economic risks and challenges [1][4] - The integration of technology and industry is not merely a parallel process but should be a symbiotic relationship, akin to roots and branches, requiring the removal of barriers to facilitate this connection [1][3] - The article highlights the importance of aligning technological innovation with industrial needs, ensuring that research and development are driven by market demands and pain points [2][4] Group 2 - The article discusses the necessity of creating a conducive environment for the efficient flow and optimal allocation of innovation elements within the industrial ecosystem, which includes dismantling invisible barriers and fostering a virtuous cycle among technology, industry, and finance [2][3] - It stresses that deep integration requires reform as a key to breaking down institutional barriers that hinder the synergy between technology and industry, including optimizing resource allocation and enhancing intellectual property protection [3][4] - The ultimate goal of promoting deep integration is to cultivate new emerging pillar industries with global influence, thereby enhancing international competitiveness and ensuring sustainable economic growth [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in achieving the goals set out in the "14th Five-Year Plan" as it approaches its conclusion, highlighting the need for focused efforts to address economic challenges and ensure high-quality development [1][2]. Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with major indicators performing better than expected, indicating progress in high-quality development [1]. - Key indicators from the "14th Five-Year Plan" are on track, with economic growth, labor productivity, and R&D expenditure meeting expectations, while urbanization rate and life expectancy exceeded expectations [1]. Policy Direction - The Central Political Bureau meeting outlined important directives for the second half of the year, including the need for sustained macroeconomic policies and efforts to achieve annual economic and social development goals [1][2]. - There is a call for policy continuity, stability, and flexibility to convert external pressures into internal growth drivers, alongside the establishment of a comprehensive policy toolbox to support employment and domestic demand [2]. Implementation and Responsibility - Regions and departments are urged to enhance their sense of urgency and responsibility, ensuring that central decisions and reforms are effectively implemented to translate policy benefits into tangible development momentum [2]. - The article stresses that proactive and diligent actions are essential to overcoming challenges and achieving the goals of the "14th Five-Year Plan," laying a solid foundation for a successful start to the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2].