Group 1: Economic Environment - The Federal Reserve is expected to resume interest rate cuts in Q3 2025, amidst a complex global economic landscape [1] - China continues to implement targeted macro policies, leading to steady economic progress despite facing multiple internal and external risks [1] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The real estate sector remains in a downward phase, but measures taken by various cities to stabilize the market have led to a narrowing year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales [1] - The trend of stabilizing and recovering the real estate market is ongoing [1] Group 3: Company Performance - The company reported a revenue of RMB 197.8 billion and an operating profit of RMB 10.3 billion for Q3 2025 [2] - For the first nine months of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 1,030 billion and an operating profit of RMB 131.5 billion [2] Group 4: Land Acquisition - In Q3 2025, the company acquired 9 new land parcels in five cities in mainland China, with a total construction area of 1.49 million square meters [1] - The total land price amounted to RMB 60.5 billion, with an equity land price of RMB 36.52 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association has issued a set of 10 initiatives aimed at regulating real estate brokerage behavior and promoting a healthy market environment during a critical phase of market stabilization [1][2]. Group 1: Market Information Disclosure - The association emphasizes the importance of maintaining a correct public opinion and objectively disclosing market information, urging members not to spread exaggerated risks or create market panic [2]. - Members are advised to avoid using misleading low-priced properties as representative cases to prevent skewed interpretations of market conditions [3]. - The use of sensationalist headlines is discouraged, and all market data should be accurate, comprehensive, and sourced reliably [3]. Group 2: Business Operations Regulation - The initiatives prohibit false property viewings and enticing homeowners to list at lower prices, emphasizing the need for ethical practices in meeting company KPIs [4]. - Members must scientifically assess property values and refrain from using manipulative tactics that harm homeowners' rights, such as artificially low pricing or market manipulation [4]. - Accurate reflection of market prices is mandated, and any negotiations must be conducted with proper authorization from clients [4]. Group 3: Consumer Rights Protection - The association calls for clear pricing practices, requiring members to publicly display service items, content, and fee standards without hidden charges [5]. - It is prohibited to engage in unfair competition through promises of rebates or commissions to buyers, and any financial arrangements must maintain normal banking practices [5]. Group 4: Fair Competition and Market Ecology - The initiatives ban exclusive agreements in new property agency and channel businesses to ensure fair competition in the market [6]. - Reasonable fee structures should be established based on the quality of real estate brokerage services, avoiding low-price competition that disrupts normal business operations [7]. - The association encourages all members to respond positively to these initiatives, enhancing self-discipline and maintaining a stable and healthy development of the Beijing real estate market [7].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View - The report suggests that the stock index futures may stabilize [3]. 3. Key Points by Category 3.1 Index Futures Data - On September 28, all four current - month index futures contracts declined. IF fell 1.16%, IH fell 0.43%, IC fell 1.48%, and IM fell 1.33% [1]. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, with IF decreasing by 12,397 lots, IH decreasing by 3,587 lots, IC increasing by 6,370 lots, and IM increasing by 30,154 lots [2]. - Regarding positions, IF's total positions decreased by 6,449 lots, IH's increased by 1,041 lots, IC's increased by 3,365 lots, and IM's increased by 11,537 lots [2]. 3.2 Index Futures Basis - The report presents the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from September 2 to September 26 [4]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Positions - The report shows the changes in long and short positions of the top 20 members of each index futures contract, with some data not disclosed [5]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - From January to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year, turning from a 1.5% decline in the previous month [6]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee proposed to strengthen monetary policy regulation, guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, and maintain the stability of the capital market [6]. 3.6 Stock Market Performance - A - share indexes fluctuated downward. The ChiNext Index fell more than 2% below 3,200 points. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.65% to 3,828.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.76%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.6%, the North Star 50 fell 1.81%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.6%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 1.2%. The trading volume of A - shares was 2.17 trillion yuan, down from 2.39 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The central bank emphasizes the need to consolidate the stability of the real estate market and improve the foundational financial systems related to real estate [4] - Recent policies in major cities have positively impacted demand, with significant increases in new and second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shanghai, while Shenzhen experienced a slight decline [7] - The report suggests that the end of September is a critical period for real estate policies, with expectations for new supportive measures to be introduced [7] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Over the past 12 months, the real estate sector has shown a relative return of -7% and an absolute return of 26% [3] - In the last week, new housing transaction area in 30 major cities decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, but the cumulative transaction area from January to September showed a decline of only 5.1%, indicating a narrowing drop [6] Transaction Trends - In Beijing, the average daily transaction volume for second-hand homes increased by 11% year-on-year, while new homes saw a 52% increase [4] - In Shanghai, second-hand home transactions rose by 22% year-on-year, and new homes increased by 29% [5] - In Shenzhen, second-hand home transactions increased by 11%, but new home transactions fell by 23% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and land reserves in core cities, such as Poly Developments [7] - It also suggests that leading intermediary firms, like Wo Ai Wo Jia, may benefit from the expected increase in second-hand home transactions and potential valuation recovery [7]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for stable economic growth and reasonable price levels, maintaining policy continuity while enhancing flexibility and foresight [1] - The meeting highlights the weakening momentum of global economic growth and uncertainties in inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments, while acknowledging domestic challenges such as insufficient demand and low price levels [1] - The meeting calls for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthening of counter-cyclical adjustments, with a focus on the effectiveness of policy measures [1] Group 2 - The meeting encourages the use of securities, funds, and insurance company swap facilities, as well as stock repurchase and increased loans to maintain capital market stability [2] - There is a continued emphasis on stabilizing the real estate market and ensuring the effectiveness of previously introduced financial policies [2] - The meeting urges large banks to play a key role in serving the real economy while encouraging small and medium-sized banks to focus on their core responsibilities and enhance capital strength [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of large banks in supporting the real economy and enhancing the capital strength of small and medium-sized banks to maintain financial market stability [1] Group 1: Financial Policy and Support - The meeting calls for effective implementation of various structural monetary policy tools to support technology innovation, boost consumption, assist small and micro enterprises, and stabilize foreign trade [1] - There is a focus on financing support for key areas such as "two new" and "two heavy" sectors, utilizing securities, funds, and insurance company swap facilities, as well as stock repurchase and refinancing [1] Group 2: Support for Small and Medium Enterprises - The meeting highlights the need for financial services to support the development of the private economy and improve the coordination mechanism for financing small and micro enterprises [1] - Efforts will be made to address the financing bottlenecks faced by small and medium enterprises [1] Group 3: Real Estate Market Stability - The meeting stresses the importance of implementing financial policies to stabilize the real estate market, including revitalizing existing housing and land [1] - There is a call to improve the foundational financial systems for real estate and to help establish a new development model for the sector [1] Group 4: Financial Openness and Risk Management - The meeting advocates for advancing high-level financial openness and enhancing economic and financial management capabilities under open conditions [1] - There is a focus on improving risk prevention and control capabilities in the financial sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for proactive monetary policy adjustments to support economic stability and growth, focusing on targeted measures for various sectors [2][4][6]. Economic Analysis - The PBOC acknowledges a complex external environment with weakening global economic growth and increasing trade barriers, while noting a positive trend in domestic economic performance [4][5]. - The assessment of the domestic economy has shifted from "showing a good trend" to "steady progress," with challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels remaining [5][6]. Monetary Policy Recommendations - The PBOC suggests enhancing monetary policy regulation, improving its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, and ensuring the execution of various monetary policy measures [6][7]. - Recommendations include maintaining ample liquidity, guiding financial institutions to increase credit supply, and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price expectations [6][7]. Structural Policy Support - The PBOC plans to strengthen support for technology innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade, expanding the focus beyond just technology and consumption [6][8]. - The meeting also emphasizes the importance of maintaining stability in the capital market through various financial instruments and supporting the development of the private economy [7][8]. Real Estate Market - The PBOC aims to consolidate the stability of the real estate market, with a focus on revitalizing existing properties and land, while improving the foundational financial systems related to real estate [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the impact of mid-term population changes on housing prices in developed countries/regions is limited, as there is no significant positive correlation between housing price indices and population growth rates or numbers [1] - From 2022, housing prices in 70 cities have entered a downward trend, with a widening decline expected in Q3 2024, although the year-on-year decline has narrowed since Q4 due to supportive policies [1] - The current adjustment cycle in the housing market has seen both new and second-hand housing price indices decline for over 40 months [1] Group 2 - Historical data shows that housing prices in developed countries/regions have experienced fluctuations since the 1980s, with price corrections often exceeding those in China, but eventually stabilizing [2] - Key factors for stabilizing and recovering housing prices include coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, such as large-scale quantitative easing, interest rate cuts, and fiscal subsidies [2] - A stable policy outlook, low interest rate environment, and improved supply-demand structure are crucial for halting the decline and stabilizing the real estate market [2] Group 3 - The stabilization of housing prices is influenced by multiple factors, including monetary policy, supply-demand relationships, and economic expectations, rather than solely by population dynamics [3] - Recommended investment targets include strong credit property companies with good urban fundamentals and leading product capabilities, as well as firms that can drive both residential and commercial real estate [3] - The increasing penetration rate of second-hand housing indicates a promising outlook for the real estate after-service sector [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report [3] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract price oscillated downward with a daily decline of 1.00%, volume decreased while open interest increased. In the current situation of weak supply and increasing demand, the fundamentals of rebar have improved, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain. The improvement is not strong. The relatively positive factors are cost increase and policy expectations. With the game of multiple and short factors, it is expected that the steel price will maintain an oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.33%, volume increased while open interest decreased. Currently, the demand resilience of hot - rolled coils is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The supply - demand pattern has weakened, inventory has increased again, and the coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost increase. It is expected that the subsequent trend will be oscillating and weakening. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price declined from a high level with a daily decline of 1.23%, both volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is performing well, supporting the high - level operation of ore prices, but the demand positive factors are weakening, supply pressure is increasing, the fundamental expectation is weakening, and the valuation is relatively high. The pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - The Party Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will continue to consolidate the stable situation of the real estate market and strive to build a new real estate development model [6] - In August, the retail sales of household appliances by units above the designated size increased by 14.3% year - on - year. The consumer market maintained a stable operation in August [7] - Vietnamese enterprises filed an anti - circumvention investigation application against Chinese hot - rolled coils on September 10, 2025, and the Vietnamese Trade Defense Agency officially accepted it on September 18, 2025 [8] Spot Market - **Rebar**: The Shanghai price was 3,240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,312 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [9] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The Shanghai price was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the national average price was 3,441 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [9] - **Tangshan billet**: The price was 3,030 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [9] - **Zhangjiagang heavy scrap**: The price was 2,140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [9] - **61.5% PB powder**: The price at Shandong ports was 795 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [9] - **Tangshan iron concentrate**: The price was 803 yuan/ton, unchanged [9] Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate (%) | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3,155 | - 1.00 | 1,290,376 | - 362,153 | 1,881,412 | 20,270 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3,340 | - 1.33 | 649,366 | 100,542 | 1,367,093 | - 15,676 | | Iron ore | 802.5 | - 1.23 | 289,687 | - 119,815 | 546,570 | - 15,454 | [11] Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 - 2025 [14][16][20][21] - **Iron ore inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines from 2021 - 2025, as well as the inventory change [19][22][25][31] - **Steel mill production**: There are charts showing the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [26][28][32][36] Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern has improved. The weekly output decreased by 5.48 tons, and the demand increased by 11.96 tons. However, the inventory is higher than in previous years, and the demand is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate, and attention should be paid to the demand [37] - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The weekly output increased by 1.35 tons, and the demand decreased by 4.34 tons. The demand resilience is weakening, the supply is at a high level, and the inventory has increased. It is expected that the price will be oscillating and weakening, and attention should be paid to the demand [37] - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern has changed. The terminal consumption of ore continues to rise, and the demand is good, but the demand positive factors are weakening. The supply pressure is increasing. The pre - holiday trend is cautiously optimistic, and beware of the intensification of industrial contradictions [38]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aims to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange, enhancing the issuance and listing systems to cultivate patient capital [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is focused on creating a favorable monetary and financial environment to support sustained economic recovery [1] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) is committed to maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, alongside ensuring basic equilibrium in international payments [1] Group 2 - The National Audit Office is increasing efforts to reveal major risk hazards in local government debt, finance, and energy sectors [1] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is working to solidify the stability of the real estate market and is focused on developing a new model for real estate growth [1] - The General Administration of Sport of China has issued guidelines to promote the high-quality development of health through sports [1] - The National Energy Administration has set a goal for 2030 to achieve self-sufficiency in the supply chain of key energy equipment industries [1]