美国财政部的一句话，正在削弱日元最后一道"心理防线"。 据追风交易台，野村在最新外汇策略报告中指出，美国财政部长贝森特公开否认美方正在进行外汇干 预，等于间接拆掉了此前压在美元/日元上的"干预预期锚"，令市场在做空日元时，少了一层顾忌。 从市场反应看，这一表态并非象征性。1月28日贝森特在CNBC直言"Absolutely not"之后，美元/日元迅 速反弹，从152.7附近拉升至153.8一线，几乎抹去此前因"纽约联储查价"传闻引发的跌幅。 真正被击穿的，并不是点位，而是"干预预期" 此前一周，美元/日元从160附近快速回落，很大程度并非基本面逆转，而是市场高度警惕两件事： 美方是否已通过纽约联储"查价"，为联合干预铺路 日本财务省（MOF）是否已悄然入场买入日元 但野村强调，贝森特的表态实质上弱化了第一条假设。即便纽约联储确实进行过查价，那也只是流程性 动作，并不等同于已经、或即将干预。 结果是：美元/日元的"政策风险溢价"被迅速压缩，做空日元重新变成一笔"性价比更高"的交易。 日本是否已经干预？数据给出的答案是：证据不足 另一条防线来自日本自身。 野村通过日本央行每日资金账户数据估算发现，在美元/日元大 ...

澳大利亚国民银行外汇策略师Rodrigo Catril称："日本的基本面并未发生改变——日本央行仍维持宽松 的货币政策，高市早苗政府还计划推出无资金支持的扩张性财政政策。除非日本央行的货币政策出现转 向，否则外汇干预难以对日元走势产生长期影响。" 美国方面的立场则让局势变得更为复杂。日本若实施汇率干预，本质上是通过抛售美元提振日元，这会 对美元形成贬值压力;而当前市场对美元开启新一轮下跌趋势的讨论正日趋热烈，在此背景下，日本的 干预举措需获得美国的默许，否则极易成为敏感议题。 周三，贝森特明确表示美国"绝不会"介入美元兑日元汇率市场，这番表态直接浇灭了市场对联合干预的 期待，还引发日元汇率一度大跌1.2%，创下逾五周以来的最大单日跌幅。而在此之前，纽约联储疑似 开展利率核查的市场传闻曾短暂提振日元，推动美元兑日元汇率逼近150关口。 尽管目前日元汇率尚未触及市场普遍认为的、可能触发日本当局即时干预的水平，但交易员已不得不重 新评估：从当下到2月8日日本众议院提前大选前，若日元出现大幅贬值，日本政府可能会采取何种应对 措施。 澳大利亚联邦银行策略师Carol Kong表示："既然联合干预的可能性微乎其微，市场或 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in support for Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet reflects growing concerns over Japan's economic policies and the effectiveness of the Bank of Japan's monetary strategies [1][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The latest public opinion poll shows Kishida's cabinet support rate at 67.5%, down 2.4 percentage points from November, with a disapproval rate of 20.4% [1]. - The Japanese yen has been on a downward trend, recently trading at 157.76 yen per dollar, marking a significant depreciation of 20% compared to three years ago [1]. - Following a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.020%, the highest since August 1999 [3]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Economists note that the recent interest rate hike was conservative, failing to instill confidence in the market regarding the government's policies [2][3]. - The Bank of Japan's commitment to maintaining loose financial conditions has led to skepticism about the effectiveness of its monetary policy in controlling inflation and stabilizing the yen [3][4]. - The yield on long-term Japanese government bonds has reached a 26-year high, indicating a lack of investor confidence in domestic bonds [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy Concerns - Kishida's government has approved an additional budget of 18.3 trillion yen to support economic stimulus, with 11.7 trillion yen financed through new bond issuance, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health [5][6]. - There is apprehension among investors regarding Japan's public debt, with projections suggesting that the debt-to-GDP ratio could rise from 215% to 230% by 2030 if current fiscal policies persist [6]. - The government's lack of a clear plan for debt repayment has led to market skepticism about its fiscal responsibility [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates twice next year, potentially reaching 1.25%, but any significant intervention in the foreign exchange market may depend on the yen's performance against the dollar [8]. - The finance minister has indicated that the government has room to take decisive action in response to currency fluctuations, hinting at possible direct market interventions [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen has been in a downward trend in the foreign exchange market, with significant depreciation despite the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike, indicating a lack of market confidence in the government's policies [3][4][6]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Economic Policies - The yen has depreciated significantly, with a 20% drop compared to three years ago, reaching historical lows against major currencies [3][6]. - Following a 25 basis point interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan, the yen continued to weaken, suggesting that the market does not view the government's policies favorably [4][6]. - The Bank of Japan's cautious approach to monetary policy, characterized by a gradual increase in rates, has not effectively addressed inflation or stabilized the currency [6][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Investor Sentiment - The increase in loan costs due to the interest rate hike has led to a shift in investment strategies, with some funds moving to the stock market while others are leaving Japan due to concerns over public debt [7][10]. - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds has reached a 26-year high, indicating a lack of confidence in domestic investments [7][8]. - There is a growing concern among investors regarding Japan's fiscal health, with a significant portion of the population expressing worries about the government's financial management [12][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Potential Interventions - Analysts predict that if the yen continues to depreciate, the Bank of Japan may need to reassess its monetary policy to balance between stabilizing the currency and controlling inflation [14][15]. - The Japanese government is expected to face increasing fiscal pressure, with potential interventions in the foreign exchange market if the yen's decline accelerates [14][15]. - Future interest rate hikes are anticipated, with expectations of two more increases, potentially bringing the rate to 1.25% [15].

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy Outlook - U.S. job market shows signs of weakness with November 2025 unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021[10] - November 2025 CPI unexpectedly dropped to 2.7%, below the expected 3.1%, indicating easing inflation concerns[13] - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points, driven by economic data and political pressures[21] Group 2: Japanese Monetary Policy Outlook - Japan's core CPI in November 2025 was 3.0%, remaining above the central bank's 2% target for 44 consecutive months[30] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to raise rates 1-2 times in 2026, each by 25 basis points, reflecting a cautious approach due to structural constraints[31] - Japan's government debt remains the highest globally, limiting the potential for significant rate increases[35] Group 3: Impact of Global Liquidity Changes - The liquidity premium is diminishing, shifting asset pricing back to fundamentals, particularly affecting U.S. equities and bonds[42] - Chinese assets are benefiting from external liquidity easing and internal profit cycles, with a focus on PPI recovery driving profit elasticity[46] - Hong Kong stocks are expected to attract capital due to their low valuation and high dividend yield, with performance increasingly dependent on domestic fundamentals[54]

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the Japanese yen is primarily driven by market expectations that "real negative interest rates will temporarily persist," which supports the profitability outlook for export-oriented companies and continues to boost the Japanese stock market [1][2] Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, may need to adopt a "rather tough tone" in an upcoming press conference to curb further yen depreciation [1] - If the yen continues to weaken, the pace of interest rate hikes may become uncertain again, highlighting the complex situation facing Japan's monetary policy [1] - The current inflation pressures and fiscal sustainability require the central bank to consider raising interest rates, while an excessively strong yen could harm the export-driven economy, and an excessively weak yen could exacerbate imported inflation and undermine foreign investor confidence in Japanese government bonds [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Trends - As of December 19, 2025, the USD/JPY exchange rate is approaching a historical low of 157:1 [1] - The Bank of Japan signaled a hawkish stance on December 1, indicating it would "consider the pros and cons of raising policy rates" during monetary policy meetings, leading to widespread expectations of an end to the three-decade era of ultra-low interest rates in Japan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Global markets closed the week with cautious optimism, supported by expectations of potential easing from the Federal Reserve, despite rising bond yields and a stronger yen from the Bank of Japan's policy shift, indicating complex challenges ahead [1][5][9]. US Market Performance - Major US indices rose for the fifth consecutive day, with the S&P 500 up 0.54% to $6,849.09, the Dow Jones up 0.61% to $47,716.42, and the Nasdaq 100 up 0.78% to $25,434.89 [3]. - The rebound is characterized as tentative, driven by growing optimism regarding a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, although market uncertainty was heightened by a technical failure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange [3][8]. Global Market Trends - European markets showed slight gains, with the Stoxx 50 index benefiting from financial stocks and individual stock acquisitions, marking a positive end to a volatile November [5]. - Asian markets experienced a recovery, with many indices closing more firmly as investor sentiment improved regarding the Fed's potential rate cuts [5][8]. Key Stock Movements - Intel (INTC) surged by 10.2% amid speculation of becoming a supplier for Apple's processors [6]. - Moderna (MRNA) rose by 3.88% following strong Q3 earnings and cost-cutting measures, boosting confidence in its 2025 profit outlook [6]. - Western Digital (WDC) increased by 3.54% due to optimism over AI-driven storage demand and strong performance [6]. Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market is balancing between "policy hopes" and "real pressures," with Fed dovish signals temporarily boosting risk assets, while uncertainties in Japanese monetary policy and global yield pressures pose risks [9][10]. - The VIX index decreased by 4.99% to 16.35, indicating a slight easing in volatility, although it remains above long-term lows [6][10]. - The dollar index faces pressure due to rising rate cut expectations and declining US yields, while gold prices increased amid lower real yields and a weaker dollar [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent statements by U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent have stirred market expectations regarding Japan's monetary policy, emphasizing the need for the Japanese government to provide the Bank of Japan (BOJ) with sufficient policy space to stabilize inflation expectations and exchange rates [1][3][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Bessent's comments have been interpreted as external support for the BOJ to tighten monetary policy, increasing expectations for an interest rate hike [3][6]. - Following Bessent's post, the yen strengthened against the dollar, moving from 152.12 to approximately 151.54 [3]. - Despite expectations that the BOJ would maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting, Bessent's remarks have added weight to the view that a rate hike may be imminent [6][9]. Group 2: Government and Central Bank Dynamics - Bessent's statements directly challenge the monetary policy stance of Japan's new Prime Minister, who advocates for low interest rates and has previously urged the BOJ to collaborate with the government to boost demand [7]. - The Japanese government is attempting to downplay the impact of Bessent's comments, with Finance Minister Katayama asserting that the meeting did not directly address BOJ's monetary policy [8]. - There appears to be a divergence within the Japanese government regarding the implications of a weak yen, with some officials viewing it as beneficial for the economy [8]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - Japan's core inflation rate has remained above the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, raising concerns among policymakers about potential second-round price effects [9]. - Most economists predict that the BOJ will raise interest rates again in December or January [9][10]. - Analysts suggest that if Japan aims to correct the yen's weakness, it must consider monetary intervention or policy adjustments [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the ongoing weakness of the Japanese yen and the implications of U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's comments on Japan's monetary policy, suggesting a cautious optimism for stabilization if appropriate measures are taken [1] - The yen has depreciated significantly, with a notable drop to 153.27 against the dollar, marking an eight-month low, and the depreciation rate is at least double that of other major currencies [1] - Market expectations for a tightening of Japan's monetary policy have rapidly diminished, with the likelihood of a rate hike this month dropping from approximately 70% to around 15% [4] Group 2 - Persistent inflation remains a long-term challenge for the Bank of Japan, with the consumer price index (CPI) growth exceeding the 2% target for over three years, while real wages have generally been declining [5] - Political uncertainty in Japan, particularly following the recent elections, is influencing market expectations regarding monetary policy, as the ruling party seeks to secure enough support for leadership [4] - Treasury Secretary Yellen's softened stance compared to previous comments indicates a shift in tone regarding Japan's handling of inflation and monetary policy [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to maintain its policy interest rate at around 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time, reflecting uncertainties in both domestic and international economic conditions, including the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japan's economy and domestic political uncertainties [1][2] Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ plans to sell approximately 330 billion yen worth of ETFs and 5 billion yen worth of REITs annually, indicating a gradual reduction in monetary easing and a move towards normalizing monetary policy [1] - The decision to keep the interest rate unchanged was not unanimous, with two members proposing an increase to 0.75% due to rising inflation risks, but this proposal was rejected by the majority [2] Economic Influences - The impact of U.S. tariffs is seen as a critical factor in determining Japan's interest rate decisions, as rising import prices could suppress consumer spending and economic growth [3] - The recent decline in U.S. labor market indicators suggests negative effects from U.S. government policies, which could lead to a recession in Japan as well [3] Inflation Trends - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in August, down from 3.1% the previous month, marking the first drop below 3% since November of the previous year [4] - The rise in food prices, driven by supply-side factors, remains a significant contributor to inflation, but analysts expect inflationary pressures to ease in the latter half of the year [4] Political Landscape - Japan's political situation is currently unstable, with the resignation of the current Prime Minister and the upcoming election for a new leader from within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party [4] - The new party leader may seek cooperation with opposition parties on monetary and fiscal policies, potentially challenging the independence of the BOJ [4]