Group 1 - Global trade and economic growth are expected to decline due to multiple uncertainties, with HSBC forecasting a slowdown in global goods and services trade growth to 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, alongside economic growth rates of 2.5% and 2.3% respectively [1] - The "import rush" effect in the US has led to a contraction in economic growth, and weakening data on employment and real wage growth may pressure private consumption spending [2] - Asian economies are facing export and manufacturing investment pressures, with potential for significant slowdown in export growth if US tariffs are reinstated, while expansionary macro policies may provide some buffer [3] Group 2 - US core inflation is expected to remain sticky, influenced by delayed tariff effects and reduced immigration, with forecasts indicating inflation will stay above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until the end of 2026 [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations is causing businesses to delay investment decisions, which could lead to a series of economic repercussions [3] - The reliance on private consumption recovery is becoming increasingly important for economic growth in Asia as both exports and investments face challenges [3]

【导读】韩国央行维持基准利率 2.5% 不变 韩国央行宣布维持基准利率不变后，美元兑韩元汇率变化不大。 中国基金报记者 李智 7 月 10 日，韩国央行维持基准利率 2.5% 不变，符合市场预期。 在此之前，韩国央行在 5 月份降息 25 个基点，以支持经济增长，应对国内需求低迷和美国 全面关税措施带来的不确定性。 荷兰国际集团 高级经济学家 Min Joo Kang 称，预计韩国央行会把下一次降息推迟到 10 月 份，以应对近期国内房价和家庭债务的上涨。 Kang 指出，韩国央行能够谨慎行事，更多聚焦金融稳定。在可预见的未来，预计通胀率将处 于央行 2% 的目标附近。韩国 6 月份的总体消费者通胀同比上升 2.2% ，略高于市场普遍预 期的 2.1% ，剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率连续第二个月稳定在 2.0% 。 韩国央行表示， 6 月消费者物价指数（ CPI ）增长主要受基数效应影响。若油价和外汇市场 趋势保持稳定，预计 7 月 CPI 增速将有所放缓。 7 月初，韩国央行行长李昌镛曾透露，韩国央行担忧关税对经济增长而非通胀的影响。自去 年底以来，韩国央行已四次降息以提供支持，但因为金融稳定风 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report discusses the potential acceleration of the Section 232 investigation by the Trump administration, particularly focusing on tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals, with a higher likelihood of copper tariffs being implemented [1] - Core inflation is showing signs of recovery, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) returning to positive year-on-year growth, driven by rising gold prices and policies promoting trade-in programs [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has unexpectedly declined, indicating weakening prices in domestic energy, raw materials, and certain export sectors, necessitating policy measures to stimulate recovery [2] Group 2: Market Data - The A-share market indices showed slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3493.05, down 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10581.8, down 0.06% [3] - In the commodity market, gold prices fell by 1.21% to 766.82, while copper prices decreased by 1.53% to 78400 [3] - The foreign exchange market saw the USD/CNY exchange rate at 7.1541, reflecting a slight increase of 0.01% [3] Group 3: Company Research - The report highlights that Q Technology (1478.HK) has upgraded its profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 by 20%, 31%, and 40% respectively, due to higher-than-expected shipments of IoT modules [4] - Changchun High-tech (000661.SZ) received approval for its injection drug, marking a significant step in its innovation transformation, although profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised downwards due to increased R&D and marketing expenses [5]

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Insights - In June 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of 0% and the previous value of -0.1%[2] - The core CPI rose by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.6% in the previous month, indicating continued improvement in core inflation[2][4] - Food and energy price declines have narrowed, contributing to the positive CPI performance[3][4] Group 2: PPI and Industry Analysis - The PPI fell by 3.6% year-on-year, worse than the market expectation of -3.2% and the previous value of -3.3%[2][9] - PPI has remained at -0.4% month-on-month for four consecutive months, reflecting weakened prices in domestic energy and raw materials[2][9] - The construction industry faced price declines due to high temperatures and abundant supply, with black metal and non-metallic mineral prices dropping by 1.8% and 1.4% respectively[10] Group 3: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is deemed necessary to boost PPI and stabilize industry prices, as current low PPI levels are attributed to oversupply and external uncertainties[11][12] - Recent actions in industries like photovoltaic and cement indicate a shift towards price recovery, with some sectors showing signs of improvement[11][12] - Continued implementation of "anti-involution" policies is expected to support consumer price recovery, particularly in housing rentals and service demand[13]

澳洲联储主席布洛克：核心通胀率仅在一个季度内保持在目标范围内。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，经济学家努里尔·鲁比尼表示，他预计到2025年底美国核心通胀率将升至3.5%。他 指出，今年下半年美国经济增长将放缓，甚至可能出现衰退，而美联储在12月之前都不会降息。鲁比尼 因提前预测2008年金融危机和2020年疫情引发的衰退而获得"末日博士"的称号。 鲁比尼称，经济放缓将呈现"轻度滞胀冲击"的特征，并警告称通胀仍然过高，美联储难以转向政策。美 联储青睐的通胀指标——核心个人消费支出指数依然顽固。鲁比尼认为该指数将远高于目标水平，令美 联储陷入困境。这种增长放缓而通胀高企的局面，他此前已多次预见。 这位经济学家还表示，他预计全球贸易谈判将降温，但无法避免对经济造成损害。他预测最终将出 现"温和的"结果，许多国家最终将面临15%的关税。 当被问及潜在的市场冲击时，鲁比尼表示，他认为美国不会重演2025年4月2日的情景。当时特朗普总统 宣布加征激进关税，导致市场暴跌20%。鲁比尼说："我当然不认为会出现类似4月2日的情况。"但他仍 发出警告，明确指出经济路径正在收窄，美联储的行动空间有限。 该ETF持有黄金、短期美国政府债券和农产品等组合。这种配置在某些时候有所帮助，但在6月等平静 月份也 ...

投资层面，利率期货已将年内两次降息重新计价进曲线，十年期美债收益率从高点回落近三十个基点， 却没有引发美元大幅贬值。原因在于欧美利差仍处相对高位，美债仍是全球最大流动性池，但曲线上端 的回落已足以推高黄金与成长股估值。金融股则面临"双刃剑"——净息差想象空间收窄，却可望通过信 用环境改善降低坏账率。对于风险资产，最关键的变量是核心通胀和服务业薪资：只要二者保持可控， 降息预期就不会轻易消散；一旦再现黏性上行，资金将迅速撤回防御。 企业决策同样要对这种政策"柔化"保持敏感。成长型公司可利用利率窗口提前锁定长期融资，压缩资本 成本；制造业出口企业则需留意关税谈判的反复，一旦贸易磋商破裂，汇率波动将抵消降息对融资端带 来的收益。真正的受益者仍是那些现金流稳健、对利率敏感度高的内需板块——他们既能从消费韧性中 受益，又能借降息消化库存。 与春季动辄"劳动力必须显著降温才降息"的表态相比，美联储主席鲍威尔近两周话锋明显柔和，却又刻 意在七月议息前四周保持沉默。市场先前押注关税会把输入型通胀推高到无可回避的程度，而实际数据 至今并未出现消费物价再次抬头的迹象；与此对应，鲍威尔不再执着于等待"实质性疲软"的就业报告， 而是 ...

墨西哥央行调查：私营部门分析师预计2025年核心通胀率为4.00%，之前调查为3.98%；预计2026年核 心通胀率为3.71%，之前调查为3.70%。 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京6月27日电 多数美债收益率周五（27日）盘前一度小幅上扬，此前美联储偏好的指标反映出通胀意外上升。 当天盘前，美债小幅继续波动，收益率上升为主。截至新华财经21:30发稿时，中短期债券及10年期美债收益率涨幅扩大，其中2年期国 债收益率上升4.5BPs至3.76%，10年期美债收益率升3.2BPs至4.285%，30年期美债收益率跌0.9BP至4.821%。 美国商务部周五公布的最新数据显示，5月份核心通胀率升至2.7%，高于预期。接受道琼斯调查的经济学家预计，整体通胀率将升至 2.3%，而剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心通胀率预计将升至2.6%。这比4月份的2.1%和2.5%都要高。 其他市场方面，英债走势与欧洲市场类似，其中2年期英债收益率涨1.4BP至3.839%，10年期英债收益率涨2.3BPs至4.494%，30年期英债 收益率涨1.9BP至5.271%。 亚太市场方面，日债收益率全线上扬，其中2年期日债收益率涨1.9BP至0.757%，10年期日债收益率涨3.4BPs至1.452%，30年期日债收益 率涨2.2BPs至2.922%。 美债一级市场方面，美国财政部周五 ...

匈牙利央行：预计2025年调整后核心通胀率平均为4.7%，2026年为4.0%。 ...