1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the cotton planting area in the US may remain stable with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to whether the planting area in the Southern Hemisphere will decrease [2][105]. - There is uncertainty about the cotton planting area under policy guidance. Although the market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the planting area in 2026, it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [2][111]. - The international economic and trade environment is gradually improving, and the phased easing of Sino - US trade relations reduces export tariffs, improving the export outlook for textiles. Coupled with the continuous expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, it is beneficial for domestic cotton consumption [2][111]. - The cotton price was at a low level for a long time in the 2024/2025 season, and the current valuation is in a historically low range. As the supply - demand pattern improves and market sentiment recovers, valuation repair will be an important driving force for price increases [2][111]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **ICE Narrow - Range Fluctuation**: In 2025, the US cotton production decreased year - on - year. Due to continuous Sino - US tariff conflicts and China's small volume of signing US cotton contracts, the ICE US cotton continuous contract showed a fluctuating trend, mostly in the range of 65 - 68 cents. After the US government's record - breaking shutdown, the price center of ICE US cotton moved down since the third quarter, generally maintaining in the range of 63 - 66 cents [10]. - **ZCE First Declined and Then Rose, with Overall Low Valuation**: Supported by the downstream raw material replenishment and order - grabbing expectations, Zhengzhou cotton rose moderately at the beginning of the year. Affected by tariffs, it started to decline in late February, especially after the US announced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" at the beginning of April, Zhengzhou cotton tumbled. After the Geneva talks between China and the US in early May, Zhengzhou cotton soared. With the marginal weakening of the negative impact of tariffs and concerns about the supply before the new cotton was listed, Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise until late July. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of new cotton production increase, the overall increase was not significant [10][11]. 3.2 Global Cotton Output Increased Slightly Year - on - Year, Focus on the Cotton Planting Area in the Southern Hemisphere - **Global Cotton Ending Stocks Increased, with Overall Low Pressure**: According to the December USDA report, compared with the previous month, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 120,000 bales, the production estimate decreased by 290,000 bales, and the consumption estimate decreased by 270,000 bales, with the ending stocks estimate increasing by 40,000 bales. In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 1.21 million bales year - on - year, the production estimate increased by 510,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 320,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 1.36 million bales, but the overall pressure was not great [12]. - **Improved Import Demand for Textiles and Clothing in Europe and the US**: - **Consumer Confidence**: In November, the US Michigan consumer confidence index was 51, down 2.6 points month - on - month and had been declining for three consecutive months, rising to 53.3 in December. The EU consumer confidence index was - 13.6 in November, basically flat month - on - month, and - 12.4 in December, down 1.2 points month - on - month and up 5.1 points year - on - year, remaining at the highest level in the same period in the past three years since March [14]. - **Import Volume**: In September, the EU's textile and clothing imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the US were 5.66 billion euros, up 380 million euros month - on - month and slightly up 50 million euros year - on - year. From January to September, the EU's cumulative imports from these four countries were 43.675 billion euros, up 4.213 billion euros year - on - year. In September, the US imported a total of $10.582 billion worth of textiles and clothing, down $1.161 billion year - on - year, a decrease of 9.89%. From January to September, the US's cumulative imports were $90.413 billion, down $210 million year - on - year. China's share in the US market dropped significantly, with cumulative imports from China being $16.912 billion, down $6.352 billion year - on - year, and the market share dropping by 6.96 percentage points compared with the same period last year [16]. - **开机率 in Southeast Asia**: The开机率 of Indian and Vietnamese spinning mills showed a downward trend, while that of Pakistani spinning mills showed an upward trend and was at the highest level in the same period in the past three years, performing the best [22][26]. - **Slow Progress of US Cotton Export Sign - ups**: - **High Ending Stocks and Limited Production Adjustment Space**: In December, compared with November, the US cotton production estimate decreased by 150,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 100,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 200,000 bales to 4.5 million bales. The 2025/2026 US cotton planting area was expected to be 9.3 million acres, the harvested area was estimated to be 7.37 million acres, the yield per acre was estimated to be 929 pounds, and the total production was 14.268 million bales, down 145,000 bales year - on - year [29]. - **Slow Overall Sign - ups and a Sharp Drop in China's Sign - ups**: As of the week of November 13, the weekly sign - up of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 42,600 tons, down 36% week - on - week, up 10% from the four - week average, and up 22% year - on - year. The total sign - up volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.2706 million tons, accounting for 49% of the annual predicted total export volume, 12 percentage points slower than the same period last year. China's total sign - up volume was 37,000 tons, a significant decrease of 74% compared with the same period last year [37][42]. - **Slow US Cotton Inspection**: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 11% slower year - on - year. Considering the 10% production reduction this year, the inspection speed was comparable to that of last year [45]. - **Supply - Demand Situation in Other Cotton - Producing Countries**: - **Accumulated Inventory in India**: In the 2025/26 season, India's cotton beginning stocks increased by 710,000 bales year - on - year, the export volume estimate was basically flat year - on - year, the import volume estimate decreased slightly by 240,000 bales year - on - year, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 500,000 bales year - on - year to the highest level in the past three years [50]. - **Divergent Estimates of Brazilian Cotton Production**: Brazilian institutions had different forecasts for the increase or decrease of Brazilian cotton production in 2025/26, but the market expected that the cotton planting area in Brazil would be difficult to increase this season. The USDA report showed that the Brazilian cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 18.75 million bales, a 10% increase year - on - year [58][60]. - **Probable Decrease in Australian Cotton Production**: Affected by factors such as insufficient irrigation water supply, poor soil moisture during the sowing period, rising planting costs, and better returns from competing crops, Australia's cotton planting area was expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season. The latest USDA report showed that Australia's cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 4.5 million bales, a 2.3% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Domestic Market Supply - Demand Situation - **Substantial Increase in Production**: - **Increased Production and Low Imports**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production estimate increased by 1.5 million bales year - on - year to 33.5 million bales, reaching a new high since 2013, and consumption decreased slightly by 500,000 bales to 38.5 million bales. Imports were expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 320,000 bales year - on - year to 351.62 million bales, at a high level in the past five years [64]. - **Non - Concentrated Pima Cotton Costs and Faster Sales**: As of December 11, the national Pima cotton processing rate was 84%, 2.2 percentage points higher year - on - year, and the sales rate was 41.6%, 23.5 percentage points higher year - on - year [68]. - **Flat Commercial Stocks Year - on - Year**: As of the end of November, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 4.68 million tons, a significant increase of 1.753 million tons month - on - month due to the listing of new cotton, and basically flat year - on - year, at the highest level in the same period in recent years [72]. - **First Decline and Then Rise in the Domestic - Foreign Price Difference and a Sharp Drop in Cotton Imports**: In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, down 10,000 tons month - on - month and 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative cotton imports were 770,000 tons, a significant decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year, a decrease of 67.5% [76]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand and Poor Exports**: - **Recovery of Cotton Spinning PMI in the Fourth Quarter**: In November, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased slightly by 2 points month - on - month, and the decline was significantly narrower than in the same period of last year and the year before. The overall trend of cotton spinning PMI was similar to that of last year, not as good as in 2023, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [86]. - **Poor Overall Spinning Mill Operation**: The domestic spinning mill operation load was basically at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years this year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious. As of this week, the spinning mill operation load index was 51, and the finished - product inventory was 27.6 days. The cloth mill operation rate reached a phased high in early April and then fluctuated and declined, and started to recover in August. As of this week, the cloth mill operation load index was 51.7, and the finished - product inventory was 31.2 days [87]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand**: In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing were 147.08 billion yuan, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1.20528 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points higher than in the same period last year [95]. - **Slight Year - on - Year Decline in Textile and Clothing Exports, with Overall Declines in Exports to the US and ASEAN**: In November, domestic textile and clothing exports were $23.87 billion, a 5.1% year - on - year decrease, and the decline was 7 percentage points narrower than in the previous month. From January to November 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were $267.79 billion, a slight 1.9% year - on - year decrease. Exports to ASEAN and the US decreased significantly, while exports to the EU market remained stable [97]. 3.4 Future Outlook - **Possible Stable but Slightly Declining US Cotton Planting Area, Focus on Whether the Southern Hemisphere's Area Will Decrease**: Based on the soybean/cotton and corn/cotton price - ratio trends, the current price ratios are significantly higher than last year. Judging from the price ratios alone, the US cotton planting area in 2026 is likely to remain stable with a slight decline compared to 2025. The Brazilian cotton planting area is expected to be difficult to increase this season, and the Australian cotton planting area is expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season [2][105]. - **Uncertainty about the Cotton Planting Area under Policy Guidance**: In 2026, a new cotton target price will be formulated. The market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the cotton planting area in 2026, but it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [111].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report predicts that after this round of rebound, cotton prices will gradually return to a volatile pattern. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is rising, the support is limited. The global supply - demand pattern is weak, with low demand. In the domestic market, the positive macro - environment and short - term spot resource shortage support the market, and downstream rigid demand persists. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **US Cotton**: ICE cotton was reported at 63.82 - 64.85 cents per pound, with a Friday closing price of 63.93 cents per pound, a week - on - week decrease of 1.2%. As of November 28, the number of unpriced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract increased by 634 to 21,716, equivalent to an increase of 10,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season increased by 1,001 to 39,293, equivalent to 890,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The total number of unpriced contracts of ICE sellers increased to 48,920, equivalent to 1.11 million tons, an increase of 1,482 (or 30,000 tons) from last week [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: It was reported at 13,660 - 13,820 yuan per ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 25 yuan. As of December 5, the number of registered warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton was 2,709, and the number of forecast warehouse receipts was 2,781, totaling 5,490, equivalent to 230,580 tons [10]. - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The price center of domestic cotton spot prices moved slightly upward and then fluctuated in a narrow range this week. The one - time price of cotton spot increased, and the sales basis of cotton spot weakened. The one - time price of 2025/26 southern Xinjiang hand - picked cotton and northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was mostly quoted at around 14,800 - 14,950 yuan per ton (gross weight), and the actual transaction was slightly discounted. [13][16] 3.2 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the total cotton output in the 2025/26 season will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, the highest since 2013. The Xinjiang cotton region is expected to produce about 6.911 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%, accounting for 95.8% of the national total. In October 2025, 90,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons and a month - on - month decrease of 5,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import was 770,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 67.4% (or 1.595 million tons). The cumulative import in the 2025/26 season was 185,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17% (or 38,000 tons) [19][26]. - **Demand**: The demand performance is average but still shows resilience, and the operating rate remains flat [29][35]. - **Profit**: The processing profit of ginning mills this week was 722 - 762 yuan per ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,099.6 - - 1,053.4 yuan per ton [38]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 8, the national commercial cotton inventory was 4.465 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 285,600 tons, higher than the same period last year by 14,680 tons. At the end of October, the industrial cotton inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 874,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42,200 tons [44]. 3.3 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand**: According to the latest November global cotton production and sales forecast by USDA, the global output was 26.145 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 523,000 tons, mainly due to the output adjustments in China and the US. The demand increased slightly to 25.883 million tons, showing an overall bearish trend [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a phase of fluctuating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The short - term situation is that during the new cotton listing and harvest period, the new cotton output exceeds expectations, and although it is the demand peak season, downstream orders are less than expected, which may put pressure on cotton prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose, domestic output may reach a recent high, and demand growth is insufficient, so the cotton price is expected to run at a low level. Therefore, in the short - term, the cotton price is weakening, and the operation strategy should be to sell short on rallies [2]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, corresponding hedging operations are proposed. For example, for those worried about rising cotton prices, they can buy call options; for those worried about falling cotton prices, they can sell futures for hedging [2]. - Attention should be paid to data such as US cotton exports and USDA report data [2]. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered to some extent, and the ending inventory has increased. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production remains at a relatively high level, demand is stable, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease slightly. The USDA September report shows that in 2024/26, the global output is 2595.7 tons, consumption is 2544.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1612.6 tons; in 2025/26, the output is 2562.2 tons, consumption is 2581.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1592.5 tons [56][57]. - In Brazil, the new - season production forecast remains high. The 2024/26 season's total production is expected to be 407.7 tons, and in 2025/26, it is expected to be 402.8 tons, with a slight decrease in the planting area [63]. - In India, although the area of unginned cotton has decreased this year and there have been local rainfall disasters, the production is expected to be relatively optimistic, ranging from 300 - 570 tons [63]. - In the US, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area increased, the harvested area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvested area increased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the production is expected to decrease. The US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but the subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [63]. Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In terms of production, in 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the production reached a recent high. It is expected that the production in Xinjiang may be about 6.4 million tons, and the national production is expected to be about 6.85 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and the weather in the producing areas was generally good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5% [17][22]. - In terms of inventory, last year's cotton imports decreased significantly, and the commercial inventory decreased significantly. After entering the new season, with the listing of new cotton, the inventory quickly recovered. As of the end of October 2025, the cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, a decrease of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 0.8882 million tons, a decrease of 0.0427 million tons from the previous month [20][23]. - In terms of imports, the domestic cotton production and sales have a certain gap, and imports are needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued, but the quantity was low, and the import increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. In 2026, the 1% tariff quota is 894,000 tons. According to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China has lowered the import tariff on US cotton by 15%, but still retains a 10% additional tariff [30]. - In terms of downstream demand, overseas interest - rate cut rhythms are still variable, but the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are progressing smoothly, and trade policy disturbances have eased. Domestic policies are strengthening to boost the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Downstream orders are insufficient, textile enterprises' finished - product inventories are higher than the same period last year, the operating load is at a low level, and the industrial chain is under great pressure. Textile and clothing exports have decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while retail data has performed well [37]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as national reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the national reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. In 2025, the planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual成交 was 0.8639 million tons, the成交 rate was 71.27%, and the average成交 price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [46][47]. Price Difference and Basis - The report presents data on cotton spreads such as 1 - 5 spreads, 9 - 1 spreads, 5 - 9 spreads, and basis data for different contracts (01, 05, 09), which can help analyze the market structure and price relationships [69][74].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with new progress in the US government ending the shutdown and fluctuating expectations of a Fed rate cut in December. The USDA11 monthly report will be released this week. In the domestic market, there are both long and short factors, with supply pressure from the characteristics of seasonal production and annual sales and a high - yield expectation, and support from cost and expectations. The cost of lint in southern Xinjiang is high, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken, and the annual cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose, with the inventory - to - sales ratio expected to decline year - on - year [1]. - Sugar is also expected to remain volatile. The Indian government has allowed the export of 150,000 tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The US government's possible end of the shutdown has boosted market sentiment and sugar prices. The key for the domestic market lies in the import link, and the domestic futures price shows a sign of approaching the upper limit of the range, with attention on whether it can break through the 5,500 yuan/ton pressure level [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Cotton**: On Monday, ICE US cotton rose 1.13% to 64.24 cents/pound, CF601 rose 0.04% to 13,580 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 6,107 lots to 570,200 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14,440 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Sugar**: The Indian government allowed the export of 150,000 tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi was in the range of 5,480 - 5,500 yuan/ton, and the main contract of raw sugar rose slightly to 14.26 cents/pound [1]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 0, up 10; the main contract basis was 1,264, down 15. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,671 yuan/ton, down 7, and the national spot price was 14,844 yuan/ton, down 15 [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 67, up 10; the main contract basis was 285, up 12. The spot price in Nanning was 5,760 yuan/ton, and in Liuzhou it was 5,760 yuan/ton, up 30 [2]. 3. Market Information - **Cotton**: On November 10, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,294, an increase of 281 from the previous trading day, with 1,391 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were: 14,671 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 14,889 yuan/ton in Henan, 14,864 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 14,985 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. The comprehensive load of yarn was 51.3, unchanged from the previous day; the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.4, down 0.1. The comprehensive load of short - fiber cloth was 51.9, up 0.1; the comprehensive inventory of short - fiber cloth was 30.2, down 0.1 [3]. - **Sugar**: On November 10, the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5,690 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,663, an increase of 281 from the previous trading day, with 1,305 valid forecasts [4][5]. 4. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price of the main contract, the basis of the main contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, etc., to visually display the price trends and related data changes of cotton and sugar [7][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on the cotton industry, suggesting investors look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of the CF2601 contract [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price rebounds due to the support of the seed cotton purchase price and the low commercial inventory, but there is a certain hedging pressure in the short - term. In the fourth quarter, due to the significant increase in new cotton production, the pressure of concentrated listing, and the dull demand, the price is likely to show a bearish trend [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton production is expected to be 285 - 300 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. China's cotton production is expected to be around 750 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 10%, with the highest expectation exceeding 800 million tons [5] - **Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton consumption is expected to be 838 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The domestic cotton yarn market is trading lightly this week, with most spinning mills making rigid purchases [5] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, the commercial cotton inventory increased by 69.85 million tons compared to the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory. As of October 24, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises can be used for 11.17 days, up from 10.25 days last week [5] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 24, the total of registered warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for Zhengzhou cotton is 12.75 million tons, up from 11.34 million tons on October 17 [5] - **Basis**: As of October 24, the Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract is 13,540 yuan/ton, and the Xinjiang cotton basis is 1,110 yuan/ton [5] - **Cost**: In 2025, the cotton planting cost per mu increased by 100 - 200 yuan compared to 2024. The total cost per mu is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang is approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton is stable at around 7.1 yuan/kg [5] - **Macro**: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims increased, and the consumer confidence index continued to decline. In China, policies to boost domestic demand are being strengthened, which is expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [5] 3.2 Week - to - Week Data Charts - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%, and consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9] - **US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, consumption remains unchanged at 370,000 tons, exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 26.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.14% [10] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, consumption is expected to be 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 88.03%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [11] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.42 million tons, imports are expected to increase by 13% year - on - year, consumption is expected to decline slightly year - on - year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 3.57% year - on - year [13] - **US Cotton Weather**: As of September 26, the good - quality rate of US cotton is 47%, 16 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the weather is unlikely to have an impact [16] - **9 - Month Xinjiang Cotton Research Conclusion**: The average yield per mu is 460 - 470 kg, the estimated production is around 750 million tons, the cotton quality is better than last year, the purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the inventory of old cotton in Xinjiang is at a three - year low [25] - **Cotton Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume decreased by 69.7% year - on - year, and the 2024/25 season cumulative import volume decreased by 67.17% year - on - year [26] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume decreased by 36.2% year - on - year, and the 2024/25 season cumulative import volume decreased by 15.5% year - on - year [28] - **China's Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of October 15, the cotton commercial inventory increased by 69.85 million tons compared to the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory [29]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The cotton market is in an oscillating upward phase, and the price center is expected to rise in the later stage. In the short term, the macro - sentiment is improving, demand is seasonally picking up, and social inventory is continuously decreasing, providing phased support. In the medium to long term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is improving, domestic production may remain high, demand is expected to recover, and the supply - demand situation is also expected to improve. Therefore, the short - term cotton price is supported, and the medium - to - long - term center is expected to move up. It is recommended to be long after adjustments [6]. Summary by Directory Domestic Supply and Demand - **Supply - demand balance**: From 2021/22, due to the macro - economic downturn and the pandemic, cotton consumption was affected, while production remained high, leading to inventory accumulation and a downward price center. In 2024/25, production was high, imports decreased, and demand was relatively stable. In 2025/26, production is expected to be high, demand may recover, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve. According to the August data of the Cotton Information Network, in 2025/26, production is expected to be high, consumption will slightly decrease, imports will recover, and the ending inventory will increase [12]. - **New cotton growth**: In 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the national output reached a recent high. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, the weather in the producing areas was generally good, and the new cotton growth was generally in good condition. Some hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang has started to be harvested. Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [18]. - **Inventory situation**: The market is in a de - stocking period, and the commercial inventory has significantly decreased. However, the industrial inventory has remained at a high level, and the overall industrial and commercial inventory is not low. There are concerns about potential tightness in the phased structural supply. As of the end of July, the commercial inventory was 218.98 million tons, a decrease of 64 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 89.84 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons from the previous month [24][27]. - **Import situation**: The domestic cotton production and sales have a gap, and imported cotton is needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued. Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has widened. In July 2025, the cotton import volume was 5 million tons, a 66.7% increase from the previous month and a 73.2% decrease from the same period last year. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 52 million tons, a 74.2% decrease from the same period last year [34][37]. Downstream Demand - **Overall situation**: Overseas interest rate cuts are beneficial to demand, and the progress of China - US economic and trade consultations is expected to improve the foreign trade situation. Domestic policies are boosting the economy, and domestic demand is expected to gradually recover. However, recently, new orders for downstream gauze are insufficient, the operating load is still low, and the finished - product inventory is still at a high level year - on - year, indicating pressure in the industrial chain operation [42]. - **Export and retail data**: In July 2025, the export of textiles and clothing was 2.6766 billion US dollars, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease and a 2.01% month - on - month decrease. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export was 1.0041 billion US dollars, a 0.63% year - on - year increase. In July, the retail sales of clothing, hats, and knitted textiles were 980.1 billion yuan, a 1.8% year - on - year increase and a 24.63% month - on - month decrease. From January to July, the cumulative retail sales were 831.1 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [43][45]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - In 2023, the state reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14. The planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual transaction was 0.8639 million tons, the transaction rate was 71.27%, and the average transaction price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the stabilizing effect of the state reserve cotton on the market [49]. Global Supply and Demand - **Global situation**: In the 2024/26 period, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption will significantly recover, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio will slightly rise. In 2025/26, global production is expected to decrease, demand will be stable, and the ending inventory will decrease. The new cotton in the Southern Hemisphere is in the harvest period with an optimistic yield expectation, while the major producers in the Northern Hemisphere are in the sowing and growing period. Some US cotton - producing areas are experiencing drought, and the sowing in India is behind schedule [58]. - **US situation**: In the 2024/25 period, the US cotton planting area increased, the harvest area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and production increased. In 2025/26, the planting area is expected to decrease, the yield per unit is expected to decline, but production is expected to recover. US textile and clothing demand has recovered, but future demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [59]. - **Other countries**: In the 2024/25 period, Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase to 3.938 million tons, a 7.2% year - on - year increase. As of August 30, 2025, India's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 period was 10.847 million hectares, a 2.9% year - on - year decrease [65]. Spread and Basis - The data on cotton spreads (such as 1 - 5, 9 - 1, 5 - 9 spreads) and basis (such as 01, 05, 09 basis) are provided, showing their historical trends and fluctuations [73][78].

Investment Rating There is no information regarding the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Core Viewpoints - The Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) futures showed a slight decline and maintained a volatile trend. The ICE cotton futures also dropped slightly overnight. The subsequent focus should be on the external market trends, the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the marginal impact of domestic policies [2]. - The global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to remain loose. In the short - term, Zhengmian may have some upward space, but high - level risks should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the room for cotton price increase is limited due to the high inventory and the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad [14]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - The main contract of Zhengmian 2509 fell 0.67%, closing at 14,075 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The ICE cotton futures dropped 0.74% overnight, closing at 68.23 cents/pound [2]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,576 (-57) sheets, including 9,226 (-39) registered warehouse receipts and 350 (+0) valid forecasts [3]. - The China Cotton Textile Prosperity Index rebounded above the boom - bust line in June, reaching 50.3%, up 1.3 percentage points from May. Among the 7 sub - indices, the raw material procurement, raw material inventory, production, and enterprise operation indices were above the critical point, the product sales and product inventory indices were below the critical point, and the enterprise confidence index was at the critical point [3][4]. - As of the week ending July 22, the long positions of non - commercial funds in CFTC US cotton futures were 64,278 (+344) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week; the short positions were 91,528 (+2,511) sheets, changing from a decrease to an increase. The total ICE positions were 218,828 (+7,061) sheets, increasing for the third consecutive week. The net long ratio was - 12.5%, down 0.6 percentage points month - on - month and up 2.8 percentage points year - on - year [4]. - Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, as of July 24, the cumulative picked, delivered, and processed lint cotton were all 6.676 million tons, with year - on - year increases of 773,000 tons and increases of 583,000 tons compared to the average of the past four years. The cumulative sales of lint cotton were 6.44 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.194 million tons and an increase of 1.03 million tons compared to the average of the past four years [5]. - On July 25, 2025, the estimated arrival volume of Indian cotton was 11,100 bales (170 kg per bale), or 1,887 tons. Since the 2024/25 season (October to September of the following year), the cumulative arrival volume of Indian cotton was 29,938,100 bales, or 5,089,477 tons [5]. 3. Data Charts - The reports include charts of CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [7][8][11]. 4. Analysis and Strategy - The US tariff policy will continue to affect the global economy. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose expectation. Zhengmian lacks a clear driving force and maintains a volatile trend. In the short - term, there may be some upward space, but high - level risks should be noted. In the medium - to - long - term, the high inventory and loose supply - demand pattern limit the upward space of cotton prices [14].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The Zhengzhou cotton futures edged up slightly and maintained a volatile trend. The ICE cotton futures also rose slightly after the latest USDA raised the forecast for US cotton production. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may have some upward potential due to the upcoming high - temperature weather in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas, but in the medium - to - long - term, the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad and high inventory levels limit the upside space for cotton prices [2][15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The main 2509 contract of Zhengzhou cotton fell 0.14%, with the final closing price at 14,170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The US cotton rose 0.66% overnight, closing at 68.74 cents/pound. The latest USDA raised the US cotton production forecast, leading to a slight increase in ICE cotton futures [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industry News - On July 25, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,615 (-57) sheets, including 9,265 (-72) registered warehouse receipts and 350 (+15) valid forecasts [3]. - As of July 24, the yarn inventory of major textile enterprises was 31.7 days, up 0.63% week - on - week, reaching a three - month high and higher than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [3]. - As of July 24, 2025, the national new cotton sales rate was 96.5%, 7.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year [4]. - Based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 6.676 million tons, as of July 24, the cumulative picked seed cotton converted to lint cotton was 6.676 million tons, an increase of 773,000 tons year - on - year and 583,000 tons more than the average of the past four years. The cumulative sold lint cotton was 6.44 million tons, an increase of 1.194 million tons year - on - year and 1.03 million tons more than the average of the past four years [5]. - In June 2025, Shanghai's top ten department stores sold 134,100 pieces of clothing, a month - on - month decrease of 65,300 pieces (32.74%) and a year - on - year decrease of 26,900 pieces (16.70%). The total sales amount was 99 million yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 38 million yuan (27.77%) and a year - on - year decrease of 26 million yuan (20.51%). The average selling price was 739.52 yuan/piece, up 7.39% month - on - month and down 4.58% year - on - year [6]. - As of July 24, the total inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 353,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.28%. The inventory in Shandong's Qingdao and Jinan ports and surrounding warehouses was about 288,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.68% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.33% [6]. 3.3 Data Charts The report includes charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit,棉纱 import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions [8][9][12]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - Internationally, the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell back into contraction, but overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped for six consecutive weeks to 217,000, the lowest since mid - April, while the number of continuing jobless claims remained at a high level since 2021. The improvement in unemployment data may affect the interest - rate cut policy [15]. - The global cotton supply - demand is expected to remain loose. In the next one to two weeks, high - temperature weather in Xinjiang's main cotton - producing areas may be unfavorable for cotton growth, which could impact production and market sentiment. In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton may have some upward potential, but the loose supply - demand pattern at home and abroad and high inventory levels limit the upside space for cotton prices in the medium - to - long - term [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Zhengzhou Cotton (ZCE) main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, showing a sideways movement with a slight decline at the end. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The overall market sentiment is weak due to good climate in the US cotton - growing areas and a generally weak agricultural products market. The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation, and the upward driving force for cotton prices is insufficient in the short - term. Long - term support for price increases is limited due to high inventory levels. Attention should be paid to the impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies, as well as the upcoming high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, China's main cotton - growing area [2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The Zhengzhou Cotton main contract 2509 closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, down 0.32% or 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. It showed a sideways movement throughout the day with a slight decline before the close. The ICE cotton futures rebounded slightly, closing at 68.26 cents/pound, up 0.25% overnight. The US cotton - growing areas have good climate, and the agricultural products market is generally weak, leading to a low - sentiment market. Future attention should be paid to the marginal impact of external market trends, tariff policies, and domestic policies [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 9,695 (- 34) sheets, including 9,382 (- 54) registered warehouse receipts and 313 (+20) valid forecasts [3]. - According to the June 2025 cotton textile enterprise survey report by the China Cotton Association, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded in June, the cotton spot basis was firm, but the downstream market did not follow the price increase. The yarn - cotton price difference narrowed again, and textile enterprises were cautious in purchasing. The raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 90.3 million tons, a decrease of 3.8 million tons from the previous month. Among them, 21.3% of enterprises increased their cotton inventory, 39.6% decreased it, and 39.1% kept it basically unchanged [3][4]. - The finished product inventory of textile enterprises increased in June, while the raw material inventory decreased slightly. As of the end of June, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.2 days, an increase of 4.9 days from the previous month, and the grey fabric inventory was 36.6 days, an increase of 3.7 days from the previous month [4]. - The demand for textiles continued to weaken in June. Some yarn mills started to implement production - limiting measures, and the output decreased month - on - month. However, due to a higher national production capacity base than last year, the output still increased year - on - year. The yarn price continued to fall, and the operating difficulties of enterprises increased. The subsequent operating rate may continue to decline. The yarn sales rate was 69%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - From July 24 to 30, most of the plain areas in Xinjiang will experience high - temperature weather of 35 - 37°C, with the highest temperature in some areas reaching over 40°C and even over 45°C in parts of Turpan and Hami. Most of the cotton in Xinjiang is in the flowering and boll - setting stage, and there is a high or very high risk of high - temperature heat damage in cotton - growing areas [5]. 3.3 Data Charts - The reports provide data charts on CZCE and ICE cotton futures prices, cotton spot prices and basis, 9 - 1 spread, textile profit, cotton import profit, yarn import profit, warehouse receipt quantity, and non - commercial positions, but no detailed analysis of these charts is provided in the text [6][9][11][14]. 3.4 Analysis and Strategy - On July 22, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan through social media, reducing the original 25% reciprocal tariff rate to 15%. Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open up its agricultural product markets such as rice. The Japanese Prime Minister will listen to a detailed report and may have further communication with Trump. The Trump administration uses tariffs as a tool to ease domestic economic problems. - The global cotton supply - demand remains in a loose situation. The Zhengzhou cotton continued to move sideways, with insufficient upward driving force. Attention should be paid to the high - temperature weather in Xinjiang, the main cotton - growing area. The current situation of loose supply - demand at home and abroad will not change, and the high inventory level limits the upward space for cotton prices in the long - term [16].

Market Review - Cotton futures for the main contract CF2509 increased by 0.04% to 12,900 CNY/ton, while ICE cotton fell by 0.96% to 66.73 cents/pound. Domestic spot prices decreased by 0.1% to 14,124 CNY/ton [1] Fundamental Summary - The USDA report indicates that from April 25 to May 1, the net export contracts for U.S. cotton for the 2024/25 season were 14,900 tons, a 39% increase from the previous week but a 50% decrease from the four-week average [2] - As of May 2, the CFTC data shows that the ON-call unpriced sell orders for U.S. cotton were 50,451 contracts, an increase of 1,165 contracts week-on-week, while unpriced buy orders rose by 1,346 contracts to 87,656 [2] - Brazil's export data revealed that in April, cotton exports reached 239,145.21 tons, with an average daily export of 11,957.26 tons, a 9% increase compared to the daily average of 10,973.14 tons in April of the previous year [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Wenkang Futures, the domestic cotton spinning industry's consumption peak has ended, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates, with a significant year-on-year decrease. Despite low import levels, cotton inventory continues to decrease slightly, indicating a weak supply-demand balance [3] - Hongyuan Futures notes that optimism regarding the first trade negotiations between China and the U.S. has waned, shifting focus to the bleak outlook for U.S. cotton demand. The results of trade negotiations between the EU, Japan, and the U.S. have been unsatisfactory, and significant progress in the upcoming China-U.S. talks is unlikely [3] - If U.S. tariffs remain high, such as at 50%, the significance of negotiations diminishes. Therefore, the recent rebound in Zheng cotton prices may be driven by psychological expectations, leading to potential volatility in cotton prices [3]