官 方 网 线 型 www.itf.com.cn 00-8888-598 | | | | | | 油脂数据日报。 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ITG国贸期货 | | | 国贸期货出品 | | 2025/11/24 | | | | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 农产品中心 | 期货从业证号 | 176 | 投资咨询证号 | | | 证监会许可【2012】31号。 | | | 国学 陈凡生 | | F03117830 | Z0022681 | | | | 24度棕櫚油 2025/11/21 | | 2025/11/20 | 一口价变动 | | 棕榈油主力现货基差(华南) | | | | | 一天津 8660 | | 8860 | -200 | 5000 | | | | | | 8540 张家港 | | 8740 | -200 | 4000 | | | | | | 黄浦 8470 | | 8670 9 | -200 | 3000 | | | | | | | | | | 2000 | | | | | | ...

研究报告 油脂周报 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价冲高回落，全周豆油 Y2601 合约下跌 0.80%， 以 8190 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2601 合约下跌 1.09%以 8550 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2601 合约下跌 1.08%，以 9816 元/吨报收。 市场悲观，油脂冲高回落 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 【重要资讯】： 7 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 星期一 榈油方面：据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来西亚 11 月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量为 828680 吨，较上月同期出口的 965066 吨减少 14.1%。据船运调查机构 SGS 公布数据显示，预计马来西 亚 11 月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量为 471222 吨，较上月同期出口的 793571 吨减少 40.6%。马棕榈油下跌 1.38%。 豆油方面：国际谷物理事会：将 2025/26 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The negative news from the overseas producing areas has basically been exhausted, and the market is waiting for more information, especially the rhythm of China's soybean purchases from the US. [31] - Domestically, the inventory of soybean oil is expected to stop increasing and decline, and with cost support, soybean oil is relatively resistant to decline. The narrowing price difference between palm oil and soybean oil improves the cost - effectiveness of palm oil. [31] - The pessimistic sentiment in the edible oil market has priced in short - term negatives, but the core contradictions remain. The high - yield of palm oil is not sustainable, and the expansion of biodiesel demand is a definite trend. Soybean oil has solid cost support, and the domestic inventory pressure can be adjusted through the import rhythm. Although rapeseed oil has high policy risks, the de - stocking trend remains under the background of global rapeseed production reduction. The edible oil sector is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Abstract - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting the bottom. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 0.69% to close at 8,184 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract fell 1.19% to close at 8,660 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 1.18% to close at 9,533 yuan/ton. [5][30] 3.2 Important Information - **Palm oil**: In October, due to more working days and better weather, Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to increase 6% month - on - month to 1.95 million tons, with a significantly higher increase than the historical average. The estimated export volume is 1.47 - 1.48 million tons. Despite increased domestic consumption, the palm oil inventory is expected to accumulate to over 2.4 million tons at the end of October. Malaysian palm oil prices fell 2.26%. [7][30] - **Soybean oil**: China's soybean imports in October reached a record high for the month, at 9.48 million tons, a 17.2% increase from 8.09 million tons in the same period last year. From May to October this year, China's soybean imports repeatedly hit new highs. In the first 10 months, China's soybean imports increased 6.4% year - on - year to 95.68 million tons. However, imports in October decreased 26.3% compared to September, reflecting a typical seasonal pattern. US soybeans rose 0.20% this week. [7][31] 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,360 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [10] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [11] - As of November 6, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,850 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the futures main - contract price was 9,564 yuan/ton, up 157 yuan/ton. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [12] 3.4 Other Data - As of October 31, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory decreased by 18,000 tons to 1.462 million tons. On November 5, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 19,000 tons to 620,000 tons. [16] - As of November 6, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 7,956,210 tons. [19] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 172 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [20] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 192 yuan/ton, down 152 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [21] - As of November 6, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 286 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Seasonally, it is at a relatively low level compared to the past 5 years. [23] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The content is basically the same as the core view of the report, emphasizing the price trends of palm oil and soybean oil this week, and the future market outlook for the edible oil sector. [30][31]

1. Overall Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views 2.1 Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are under pressure and may fall further, with potential support at 4000 - 4100 ringgit. Dalian palm oil futures are also under pressure, expected to test 8500 - 8600 yuan for support. Overall, a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength is maintained [1]. - Soybean oil: There are both bullish and bearish factors. The overall supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, but due to factors such as high Brazilian soybean prices and potential factory shutdowns, the spot basis quote has limited short - term fluctuation space [1]. 2.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: Currently, the supply is abundant, and the price is in a downward channel. The demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly and approach the new - season cost price of 2050 yuan. In the long - term, it will be in a tight - balance pattern with policy support [2]. - Corn starch: The price of corn starch 2601 has increased slightly, and the market situation is affected by the corn market [2]. 2.3 Meal Products - Meal products: The expectation of China purchasing US soybeans has increased, and the domestic cost support remains. With high domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories and poor crushing margins, the domestic soybean meal trend is expected to be strong [5]. 2.4 Live Pigs - Live pigs: The market supply is relatively loose, and the pig price has weakened. There may be short - term support from secondary fattening, but there will be increased supply pressure in November and December, and the futures market is following the spot market down [7]. 2.5 Sugar - Sugar: The expected increase in supply surplus and weak energy prices have led to a weakening of raw sugar prices. Domestic sugar prices are also under pressure but have cost support at around 5400 yuan, and the market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [10]. 2.6 Cotton - Cotton: The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [12]. 2.7 Eggs - Eggs: The short - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be in a state of being difficult to rise or fall. With the slow recovery of demand, the price may gradually rise, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8400 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8128 yuan, down 40 yuan (- 0.49%); the basis was 272 yuan, up 40 yuan (17.24%) [1]. - **Palm oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Guangdong was 8700 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.57%); the futures price of P2601 was 8764 yuan, down 64 yuan (- 0.72%); the basis was - 64 yuan, up 14 yuan (17.95%) [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: On October 31, the spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan, down 50 yuan (- 0.51%); the futures price of O1601 was 9422 yuan, down 107 yuan (- 1.12%); the basis was 328 yuan, up 57 yuan (21.03%) [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: On November 3, the flat - hatch price of corn 2601 in Jinzhou Port was 2130 yuan, up 19 yuan (0.90%); the basis was 0 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 100.00%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 97 yuan, up 5 yuan (4.90%) [2]. - **Corn starch**: On November 3, the price of corn starch 2601 was 2440 yuan, up 21 yuan (0.87%); the basis was 70 yuan, down 21 yuan (- 23.08%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 108 yuan, up 3 yuan (2.70%) [2]. 3.3 Meal Products - **Soybean meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 3020 yuan, up 50 yuan (1.68%); the futures price of M2601 was 3021 yuan, up 27 yuan (0.90%); the basis was - 1 yuan, up 23 yuan (95.83%) [5]. - **Rapeseed meal**: On November 3, the spot price in Jiangsu was 2470 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.40%); the futures price of RM2601 was 2388 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 0.54%); the basis was 82 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.80%) [5]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of live pigs 2605 was 11895 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of live pigs 2601 was 11815 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 0.55%); the 1 - 5 spread was - 80 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 300.00%) [7]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in different regions showed slight fluctuations, with the price in Henan at 12500 yuan, up 50 yuan; the price in Shandong at 12550 yuan, unchanged; etc [7]. 3.5 Sugar - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of sugar 2601 was 5483 yuan, up 11 yuan (0.20%); the price of sugar 2605 was 5413 yuan, up 6 yuan (0.11%); the 1 - 5 spread was 70 yuan, up 5 yuan (7.69%) [10]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning was 5750 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5710 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.17%); the Nanning basis was 337 yuan, down 6 yuan (- 1.75%); the Kunming basis was 297 yuan, down 16 yuan (- 5.11%) [10]. 3.6 Cotton - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of cotton 2605 was 13605 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 was 13595 yuan, down 5 yuan (- 0.04%); the 5 - 1 spread was 10 yuan, unchanged [12]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14674 yuan, up 16 yuan (0.11%); the CC Index of 3128B was 14860 yuan, up 17 yuan (0.11%); the 3128B - 01 contract spread was 1069 yuan, up 21 yuan (2.00%) [12]. 3.7 Eggs - **Futures**: On November 3, the price of the egg 12 - contract was 3146 yuan, down 11 yuan (- 0.35%); the price of the egg 01 - contract was 3318 yuan, down 35 yuan (- 1.04%); the basis was - 203 yuan, up 21 yuan (9.39%); the 12 - 01 spread was - 172 yuan, up 24 yuan (12.24%) [14]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying hen chick price was 2.80 yuan, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled hen price was 4.11 yuan, down 0.18 yuan (- 4.20%); the egg - feed ratio was 2.35, up 0.04 (1.73%); the breeding profit was - 26.10 yuan, up 2.61 yuan (9.09%) [14].

Report Date - The report is dated November 2, 2025 [1] Last Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - The market was concerned about the large production volume in Malaysia in the fourth quarter. Without effective demand drivers and supply stories, the palm oil 01 contract continued to decline, with a weekly drop of 4.01%. Attention was paid to the support level at 8,200 - 8,400 [2] Soybean Oil - The production situation in Brazil was favorable. In a well - supplied environment, soybean oil was difficult to have an independent driving force and mainly followed the weak oscillation of the oil and fat sector. However, the strong export demand and the inevitable inventory reduction process of soybean oil kept it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties. The soybean oil 01 contract dropped 0.71% last week [2] This Week's View and Logic Palm Oil - In Malaysia, the overall production and rainfall conditions this year were favorable, which might lead to the fourth - quarter production being above the level of the same period last year. The year - end inventory was expected to be at a relatively high level of around 2 million tons. The supply side needed an additional production reduction to stimulate a price increase. The price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia stabilized and rose. Indonesia's production in October should return below 5 million tons, but the inventory accumulation trend after August was difficult to reverse. The market's speculation that Indonesia's actual inventory was above 6 million tons made the actual inventory level lose its trading significance. In the short term, it was difficult to see a strong driving force in the origin. There were even concerns about the later inventory accumulation speed in Indonesia. Even if Malaysia's inventory decreased rapidly after October, starting from 2.36 million tons in September, there was a high possibility that the combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia would recover to over 5 million tons by the end of the year. The driving force from the origin for the oil and fat market this year had decreased. - In the sales area, the forward import profit of Indian CPO increased rapidly, which stimulated India to buy a large number of ships, possibly having a certain price - supporting effect but no additional positive factors. The cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in the biodiesel sector declined rapidly recently. Without the improvement of the operating rate this year, the inventory accumulation pressure was large by the end of the year. Before the specific blending policy was implemented next year, it was too early for US soybean oil to rebound. In the fourth quarter, the international demand side was difficult to provide further stimulation. The only positive factor was that the profit and stocking sentiment of European biodiesel were still good, but this high profit was mainly due to the high price caused by the HVO liquidity problem, and the boost to raw material demand had an upper limit. - In conclusion, as US soybean oil was difficult to improve substantially, international oil and fat prices were suppressed and lost the biggest driving force for reversal. Although Malaysia's inventory was likely to reach an inflection point in October and would experience rapid inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, Indonesia's inventory was also likely to bottom out in August. By the end of the year, it was difficult to achieve a significant reduction in the origin's inventory, which was expected to increase to the level at the end of 2023. There was no strong upward driving force from the origin, and it was not excluded that the price would continue to decline to the price platform at the end of June, i.e., the 8,200 - 8,400 range. The upward opening of the palm oil price space could only be expected from the implementation of B50 and unexpected production in the fourth quarter [3] Soybean Oil - The support level of the cost - effectiveness of US soybean oil in biodiesel decreased with the decline of crude oil prices. The progress of the Sino - US soybean procurement agreement might make Trump no longer consider the rapid development of the biodiesel sector. The issue of SRE redistribution made it more difficult to formulate rules, and the final announcement of RVO was likely to be delayed. Before the policy was implemented, the inevitable inventory accumulation trend of US soybean oil would prevent it from fully reflecting the tight fundamental expectation. It might even seek exports in the fourth quarter. In this case, the price of US soybean oil would mainly fluctuate with crude oil, diesel crack spread, and US soybean prices and was still in a downward channel. The 50 cents/pound level might not have actual support. - The overall soybean sowing progress in Brazil was favorable. The rainfall in mid - and late October was beneficial to the early growth of the soybeans sown in September. The production prospect of Brazil's new season soybeans was positive, and a high - yield pattern was taking shape. The global soybean supply in the 2025/2026 season remained abundant, which restricted the upward driving force of the international soybean - related market. - In the domestic market, there was almost no gap in soybean arrivals until January. The export demand might keep domestic soybean oil inventory decreasing monthly until March next year. Therefore, among oil and fat varieties, soybean oil was mainly recommended for long - term allocation, especially when palm oil still had回调 pressure. However, it did not have an independent upward driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result could be reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports [4][5] Overall View - Malaysia's inventory is likely to reach an inflection point in October and will experience rapid inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, but Indonesia's inventory is also likely to bottom out in August. By the end of the year, it is difficult to achieve a significant reduction in the origin's inventory, which is expected to increase to the level at the end of 2023. There is no strong upward driving force from the origin, and it is not excluded that the price will continue to decline to the 8,200 - 8,400 range. The upward opening of the palm oil price space can only be expected from the implementation of B50 and unexpected production in the fourth quarter. When palm oil still has回调 pressure, soybean oil is mainly recommended for long - term allocation, but it does not have an independent upward driving force. Attention should be paid to whether the Sino - US trade result can be reached and the sustainability of soybean oil exports [6] Disk Basic Market Data Price and Volume | Variety | Unit | Opening Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil Main Contract | Yuan/ton | 9,110 | 9,150 | 8,720 | 8,764 | - 4.01% | 2,620,557 | - 21,105 | 392,995 | 43,304 | | Soybean Oil Main Contract | Yuan/ton | 8,192 | 8,258 | 8,020 | 8,128 | - 0.71% | 2,641,662 | 51,471 | 493,021 | - 4,567 | | Rapeseed Oil Main Contract | Yuan/ton | 9,767 | 9,785 | 9,379 | 9,422 | - 3.12% | 2,345,011 | 78,228 | 220,738 | - 30,322 | | Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | Ringgit/ton | 4,435 | 4,446 | 4,198 | 4,205 | - 4.86% | - | - | - | - | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | Cents/pound | 50.62 | 50.94 | 48.56 | 48.62 | - 3.32% | - | - | - | - | Spread | Spread Type | Unit | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rapeseed - Soybean 01 Spread | Yuan/ton | 1,294 | 1,567 | - 17.42% | | Soybean - Palm 01 Spread | Yuan/ton | 3636 | - 928 | 31.47% | | Palm Oil 1 - 5 Spread | Yuan/ton | - 50 | 18 | - 377.78% | | Soybean Oil 1 - 5 Spread | Yuan/ton | 170 | 178 | - 4.49% | | Rapeseed Oil 1 - 5 Spread | Yuan/ton | 2818 | 384 | - 26.82% | Warehouse Receipts | Variety | Unit | This Week | Last Week | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Palm Oil | Lots | 0 | 600 | - 600 | | Soybean Oil | Lots | 27,644 | 27,344 | 300 | | Rapeseed Oil | Lots | 7,540 | 7,540 | 0 | [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are expected to remain weakly volatile, with a chance of a short - term rebound in the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range. Dalian palm oil futures may follow the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil. Domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish, and the 1 - month contract of Dalian soybean oil may test the 8000 - yuan support and may break it [1]. Meal Products - Although domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, the cost - side support is strengthening. The trend of domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish as it is difficult to source cheap soybeans in the near term [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, and the market supply is relatively loose. Pig prices have weakened from a strong position. In the short term, prices may not fall significantly, but there will be an increase in the number of pigs for sale in November and December, and risks should be monitored around the Winter Solstice [4]. Sugar - Brazilian sugar supply is expected to be abundant, and raw sugar prices will remain weakly volatile. Domestic sugar prices have limited downward momentum as they approach the production cost, and the current bottom - shock pattern may continue [9]. Cotton - The downstream textile enterprises' demand for cotton is resilient, and the rising cost of new cotton provides support. However, cotton prices may face hedging pressure, and short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [10]. Corn - Due to sufficient grain sources in the Northeast and the behavior of farmers in North China, the overall corn price is stable with limited upside. With the supply pressure remaining, the futures market will maintain a low - level shock in the short term [11]. Eggs - Egg supply is sufficient, and demand may first increase and then decrease this week. Egg prices are expected to rise slightly and then stabilize, with overall pressure [17]. 3. Summary by Directory Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 8400 yuan, the Y2601 futures price is 8168 yuan, and the basis is 232 yuan. The market is affected by the outcome of the Sino - US summit, and there is a risk of the 1 - month contract testing the 8000 - yuan support [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8750 yuan. The BMD crude palm oil futures are weakly volatile, and Dalian palm oil may follow the downward trend [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9800 yuan, and the OI601 futures price is 9529 yuan [1]. Meal Products - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2970 yuan, the M2601 futures price is 2994 yuan, and the basis is - 24 yuan. The cost - side support is strengthening, and the trend is expected to be bullish [3]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu is 2480 yuan, the RM2601 futures price is 2401 yuan, and the basis is 79 yuan [3]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans is 3900 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 1 is 4103 yuan, and the basis is - 203 yuan. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3940 yuan, the main contract of Soybean No. 2 is 3704 yuan, and the basis is 236 yuan [3]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 11900 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 11880 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 20 yuan [4]. - **Spot**: The spot prices in Henan, Shandong, Sichuan and other regions have different degrees of decline or stability [4]. Sugar - **Futures**: The 2601 contract price is 5472 yuan/ton, the 2605 contract price is 5407 yuan/ton, and the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.25 cents/lb [9]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning is 5720 yuan/ton, and the basis is 343 yuan [9]. Cotton - **Futures**: The 2605 contract price is 13610 yuan/ton, the 2601 contract price is 13600 yuan/ton, and the ICE US cotton main contract is 65.09 cents/lb [10]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 14658 yuan/ton, and the CC Index of 3128B is 14843 yuan/ton [10]. Corn - **Corn**: The 2601 contract price is 2111 yuan/ton, the Jinzhou Port FAS price is 2120 yuan/ton, and the basis is 9 yuan [11]. - **Corn Starch**: The 2601 contract price is 2419 yuan/ton, the Changchun spot price is not provided, and the Weifang spot price is 2750 yuan/ton [11]. Eggs - **Futures**: The December contract price is 3157 yuan/500KG, the January contract price is 3353 yuan/500KG, and the 12 - 01 spread is - 196 yuan [16]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price is 2.93 yuan/T, and the basis is - 224 yuan/500KG [16].

Report Details - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oil and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors show positive signals from Sino-US meetings and economic and trade consultations. Palm oil faces pressure due to strong production increase expectations in major producing areas, slowing export data, and expected inventory increases, but there are long - term expectations of production cuts and B50. Soybean imports are expected to decrease after November, and soybean oil may turn to inventory reduction. For rapeseed oil, attention should be paid to the arrival and crushing of Australian seeds and the progress of Sino - Canadian relations, with domestic spot basis remaining stable and strong and continuing the inventory reduction trend. Short - term is seen as volatile adjustment, and the long - term strategy is to buy on dips [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Market Review** - East China's third - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 390; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 320. East China's first - grade rapeseed oil: From October to November, it is OI2601 + 480; from December to January, it is OI2601 + 400. East China's first - grade soybean oil basis price: In November, it is Y2501 + 200; from December to January, it is Y2501 + 220; from February to May, it is Y2605 + 300; from April to July, it is Y2505 + 220. The quotation of palm oil by Dongguan traders remains stable: 24 - degree palm oil in Dongguan factories is 01 - 80 [7] - **Operation Suggestions** - Short - term: View as volatile adjustment. Long - term: Adopt the strategy of buying on dips [8] 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Brazilian Soybean Production Forecast** - Rabobank expects Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season to reach a record 177 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year, slightly higher than the USDA's current forecast of 175 million tons [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Data** - From October 1 to 24, Brazil's soybean export volume was 5.415 million tons, compared with 4.71 million tons in October last year. The average daily export volume in October so far is 300,843 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.5% [9] - **Brazilian Soybean Sowing Progress** - As of October 27, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Paraná state, Brazil, for the 2025/26 season was 68%, higher than 52% a week ago. The excellent and good rate is 98%, and the general - rated proportion is 2%. 28% of the soybeans are germinating, 1% are in the flowering stage, and 71% are in the vegetative growth stage [9][10] - **Global Soybean Production Forecast** - The International Grains Council (IGC) predicts that the global soybean production in the 2025/26 season will be 428 million tons, lower than the September expectation of 428.7 million tons and last year's 428.6 million tons. The US soybean production is adjusted down to 116 million tons, and Brazil's is expected to be 177 million tons [10] 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, and South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and some price spreads and exchange rate data. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14][15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: The palm oil origin has a slow destocking process, and the year - end inventory is likely to increase, lacking strong upward drivers. The soybean oil is affected by South American production and policy delays, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8][9]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to fluctuate. The soybean meal market is influenced by trade events, while the soybean No.1 is affected by Sino - US trade frictions and domestic policy expectations [22]. - **Corn**: The corn market is expected to run in a volatile manner. The price decline in the Northeast may slow down, and the quality problem in North China may lead to price differentiation [30][35]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is in a low - level oscillation. The international market is weakly expected, and the domestic market is affected by production, consumption, and import policies [61][86]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures price is expected to be narrowly volatile in the short term, affected by new cotton listing, hedging willingness, and international economic and trade situations [89][105]. - **Pigs**: The pig spot price is expected to be weak, with increasing supply and decreasing demand in October. The futures market needs to pay attention to the basis - narrowing market [109][110]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's View and Logic**: The palm oil 01 contract fluctuated slightly with a 1.90% weekly decline due to the lack of effective drivers. The soybean oil 01 contract followed the oil and fat sector and Sino - US economic and trade relations, with a 0.82% weekly decline [5]. - **This Week's View and Logic**: The palm oil origin has high inventory pressure, and the demand side lacks strong drivers. The soybean oil is affected by South American production and policy delays, and the market may fluctuate until the end of the year [6][8][9]. - **Market Data**: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,308 yuan/ton with a 1.90% decline, and the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,256 yuan/ton with a 0.82% decline [11]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market Situation**: The US soybean futures prices rose, while the domestic soybean meal futures prices were weak, and the soybean No.1 futures prices were strong. The international soybean market was affected by the US government shutdown, Brazilian soybean import costs, and planting progress [19]. - **This Week's Market Situation**: The prices of soybean meal and soybean No.1 are expected to fluctuate. The soybean meal market is influenced by trade events, while the soybean No.1 is affected by Sino - US trade frictions and domestic policy expectations [22]. - **Market Data**: The soybean meal main m2601 contract had a 1.85% weekly decline, and the soybean No.1 main a2511 contract had a 2.03% weekly increase [19]. Corn - **Market Review**: The corn spot price fell last week, while the futures price rebounded. The CBOT corn rose, the wheat price increased, the corn starch inventory increased, and attention should be paid to the new grain listing situation [30][31][32][33][34][35]. - **Market Outlook**: The corn market is expected to run in a volatile manner. The price decline in the Northeast may slow down, and the quality problem in North China may lead to price differentiation [30][35]. - **Market Data**: The national corn average price was 2,263.14 yuan/ton last week, and the corn futures main contract C2511 closed at 2,117 yuan/ton [30][31]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: The international sugar market had a weak performance, with the New York raw sugar active contract price falling 3.54%. The domestic sugar market also declined, with the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price falling 84 yuan/ton [59][60]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: The sugar market is in a low - level oscillation. The international market is weakly expected, and the domestic market is affected by production, consumption, and import policies [61][86]. - **Market Data**: The Guangxi group spot sugar price was 5,770 yuan/ton, and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract price was 5,412 yuan/ton [70]. Cotton - **Market Review**: The ICE cotton first fell and then rose, and the domestic cotton futures stabilized and rebounded. The new cotton listing and hedging willingness restricted the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures, while the high basis and relatively low price provided support [89]. - **Market Outlook**: The cotton futures price is expected to be narrowly volatile in the short term, affected by new cotton listing, hedging willingness, and international economic and trade situations [89][105]. - **Market Data**: The ICE cotton main - continuous contract closed at 64.29 cents/pound with a 0.82% increase, and the Zhengzhou cotton main - continuous contract closed at 13,335 yuan/ton with a 0.08% increase [92]. Pigs - **This Week's Market Review**: The pig spot price fluctuated, and the futures price was weak. The supply was loose, and the demand was limited after the festival [107][108]. - **Next Week's Market Outlook**: The pig spot price is expected to be weak, with increasing supply and decreasing demand in October. The futures market needs to pay attention to the basis - narrowing market [109][110]. - **Market Data**: The Henan pig price was 11.38 yuan/kg, and the LH2511 contract closed at 11,050 yuan/ton [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Long - term bullish, short - term correction and consolidation. The overall view is that the prices of oils and fats will rise in the medium and long term. Rapeseed oil may start to rise first, and soybean and palm oils should be traded with the idea of buying on dips [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply**: Palm oil is bullish, while soybean and rapeseed oils are neutral. The floods in Sabah, Malaysia, and the deterioration of high - frequency production data bring positive drivers from the origin. Sino - US diplomatic negotiations may affect the trade flow of US soybeans, and the new - crop production of Canadian rapeseed is expected to increase [5]. - **Demand**: Neutral to bearish. The high - demand expectation has been priced in before, and there are recent bearish disturbances. The biodiesel demand in Indonesia and the US is lower than previously expected, and the trading volume of oils and fats in the domestic peak season is lower than the same period [5]. - **Inventory**: Neutral to bearish. The total inventory of domestic oils and fats continued to accumulate last week, which is a bearish deviation from the previous expectation of "peak inventory and then de - stocking". Rapeseed oil is continuously de - stocking with a strengthening basis, while soybean and palm oils are accumulating inventory with a weakening basis [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral to bearish. Trump's visit to China may bring expectations of trade talks. Indonesia is expected to implement B45 next year, and there is still uncertainty about the US biodiesel RVO [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Investment View**: Maintain a long - term bullish view on oils and fats, with rapeseed oil leading the rise, and a strategy of buying on dips for soybean and palm oils [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, buy on dips. For options, buy out - of - the - money call options. For arbitrage, go long on oils and short on meals in the far - month contracts, and conduct a positive spread arbitrage between the January and May contracts of rapeseed oil [5]. 3.2 Market Review - The report presents the closing prices of the main contracts of oils and fats and the trend of the agricultural product index, as well as the price differences between different contracts and varieties, such as P1 - 5 spread, Y1 - 5 spread, OI1 - 5 spread, and the spot price differences between domestic soybean oil and palm oil [7][9][15]. 3.3 Supply - and - Demand Fundamentals of Oils and Fats - **Southeast Asia**: Analyzes the weather conditions in Southeast Asia, including precipitation and temperature forecasts, and the monthly supply - and - demand situation of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia, covering production, consumption, exports, and ending inventory [18][30][36]. - **India**: Shows India's monthly imports of palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, as well as the international price difference between soybean and palm oils [43]. - **China**: Analyzes China's palm oil import profit, supply, and demand, including import volume, trading volume, commercial inventory, import cost, and profit. It also covers the situation of US soybeans (including weather, growth rate, export), Brazilian soybeans (export volume), and the supply - and - demand situation of rapeseed and rapeseed oil (including weather, export, domestic arrival, production, and inventory) [49][61][101].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Palm Oil - Malaysian crude palm oil futures may gradually rebound and return to 4,500 ringgit, and then start an upward trend. Domestic palm oil futures will remain range - bound in the short term and may follow the upward trend of Malaysian palm oil later, maintaining a view of near - term weakness and long - term strength [1]. Soybean Oil - Analysts expect the NOPA members' soybean oil inventory in August 2025 to decrease by 5.8% compared to July. Domestic soybean oil has both long and short factors, with supply being sufficient and consumption increasing, and the basis quote fluctuating narrowly [1]. Corn - Short - term market supply and demand are loose, the futures market is oscillating weakly; in the medium term, it will remain weak, and short - selling should be cautious [2]. Sugar - The international raw sugar price is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The domestic sugar market has spot pressure, and the futures market may stabilize around 5,500 in the short term, but the rebound space is limited, and a high - selling strategy is recommended [6]. Cotton - In the short term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range, and after the new cotton is listed, prices will face pressure [7]. Eggs - Egg prices are expected to rise to the annual high, but the high inventory and cold - storage eggs may suppress the increase. After the traders' replenishment next week, demand may weaken, and local egg prices may decline slightly [9]. Meal - The domestic meal market has a weak demand pattern, but cost support is strong. It is expected that the 01 contract will operate in the 3,050 - 3,150 range [11]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs is currently weak, but the decline space is limited. Demand is slowly recovering, but whether it can absorb the supply is uncertain. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom - out [13][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats Industry Price Changes - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 8,610 yuan/ton; the futures price (Y2601) rose by 28 yuan to 8,076 yuan/ton, with a 0.72% increase; the basis (Y2601) decreased by 28 yuan to 534 yuan/ton, a 9.80% decline [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong remained at 9,320 yuan/ton; the futures price (P2601) rose by 112 yuan to 9,174 yuan/ton, a 1.24% increase; the basis (P2601) decreased by 112 yuan to 146 yuan/ton, a 43.41% decline [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 100 yuan to 9,940 yuan/ton; the futures price (Ol601) rose by 15 yuan to 9,511 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the basis (Ol601) decreased by 115 yuan to 429 yuan/ton, a 21.14% decline [1]. Spread Changes - The soybean oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) decreased by 4 yuan to 300 yuan/ton, a 1.32% decline; the palm oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) rose by 14 yuan to 248 yuan/ton, a 5.98% increase; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (01 - 05) rose by 28 yuan to 380 yuan/ton, a 7.76% increase [1]. Corn Industry Price Changes - The futures price of corn 2511 decreased by 30 yuan to 2,167 yuan/ton, a 1.37% decline; the basis increased by 30 yuan to 143 yuan/ton, a 26.55% increase [2]. - The futures price of corn starch 2511 decreased by 31 yuan to 2,443 yuan/ton, a 1.25% decline; the basis increased by 31 yuan to 117 yuan/ton, a 36.05% increase [2]. Sugar Industry Price Changes - The futures price of sugar 2601 rose by 9 yuan to 5,520 yuan/ton, a 0.16% increase; the ICE raw sugar main contract rose by 0.15 cents to 15.96 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase [6]. Industry Data - The national sugar production and sales increased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory also increased. The sugar import volume increased by 160% [6]. Cotton Industry Price Changes - The futures price of cotton 2605 rose by 30 yuan to 13,850 yuan/ton, a 0.22% increase; the ICE U.S. cotton main contract rose by 0.06 cents to 66.82 cents/pound, a 0.09% increase [7]. Industry Data - Commercial and industrial inventories decreased month - on - month, while imports increased by 66.7%. The textile industry's inventory decreased year - on - year [7]. Egg Industry Price Changes - The futures price of the egg 11 - contract rose by 103 yuan to 3,143 yuan/500KG, a 3.39% increase; the egg producer price rose by 0.12 yuan to 3.66 yuan/jin, a 3.45% increase [9]. Industry Data - The egg - to - feed ratio rose by 0.07 to 2.50, a 2.88% increase; the breeding profit increased by 4.71 yuan to - 17.89 yuan/feather, a 20.84% increase [9]. Meal Industry Price Changes - The spot price of Jiangsu soybean meal decreased by 20 yuan to 3,030 yuan/ton, a 0.66% decline; the futures price (M2601) decreased by 37 yuan to 3,042 yuan/ton, a 1.20% decline [11]. - The spot price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal decreased by 50 yuan to 2,600 yuan/ton, a 1.89% decline; the futures price (RM2601) decreased by 27 yuan to 2,504 yuan/ton, a 1.07% decline [11]. Spread Changes - The oil - to - meal ratio of the main contract rose by 0.05 to 2.75, a 1.87% increase; the soybean - to - rapeseed meal spread in the spot market rose by 30 yuan to 430 yuan/ton, a 7.50% increase [11]. Pig Industry Price Changes - The futures price of the pig 2511 contract rose by 20 yuan to 13,275 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase; the Henan spot price decreased by 150 yuan to 13,300 yuan/ton [13]. Industry Data - The sample slaughter volume decreased by 590 to 148,082; the self - breeding profit decreased by 35.8 yuan to 17 yuan/head, a 68.02% decline [13].