内卷这一概念最初由人类学家格尔茨提出，用于描述农业社会在资源有限情况下，劳动投入增加而产出不增的现象。 尽管内卷在过去描述的是农业社会，但今天这个词的本意，仍然没有变。那就是劳动投入增加而产出不增的现象，都可以被称为内卷。 所以，现在来回答这个问题，内卷，卷的到底是什么？ 其实是人们渴望维持或增加收入的底层动机带来的结果。 但为什么会内卷呢？ 从宏观角度来看，目前国内市场的竞争激烈程度的确远超欧美，甚至是日韩。以汽车行业为例，其他汽车大国的汽车制造商屈指可数，但我国仍然还有100 多家汽车制造商在争夺市场份额。 如果内卷一直持续下去，会带来什么后果？ 首先就是价格的螺旋式下降。一家企业降价，其他企业不得不选择跟进，进而导致价格一路下跌，一旦消费者有了商品价格不断下跌的预期，那么将在短期 内难以恢复。 20世纪90年代，日本就曾经发生过类似的事件，一度让日本陷入到了价格螺旋式下跌的周期循环之中。 所以，为了遏制竞争，我国正在通过各种办法来让企业维持价格稳定，并开始削减补贴来遏制这种现象，虽然做不到涨价，但不降价本身，也是一种胜利。 在太阳能领域，我国的太阳能组件制造商数量也非常多，以至于产量高出全球需求的50% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the source of incremental funds for China's capital market has undergone a transformative change, driven by the accumulation of significant social net wealth and low bank savings rates, leading to a shift towards capital market investments [1][8] - Liu Shijun emphasizes that the current economic challenges are primarily due to insufficient consumption rather than investment, highlighting a structural deviation in consumption patterns compared to international averages [2][3] - The need for structural reforms in three key areas is identified to effectively expand consumption, focusing on housing for new citizens, pension system reforms, and facilitating the flow of production factors between urban and rural areas [6][5] Group 2 - The capital market is expected to enter a new development phase, with a focus on nurturing large, globally competitive technology firms and a multitude of innovative small and medium enterprises [8] - Liu Shijun suggests that the capital market can enhance resource utilization efficiency, increase investors' income, and support pension expenditures in an aging society, thereby promoting consumption through wealth effects [8] - The recommendation includes implementing a balanced import-export strategy to enhance the international status of the RMB, shifting from a reliance on dollar reserves to increasing the use of RMB in global trade [8]

"中国经过这么多年，已经积累了非常大规模的社会净财富。银行储蓄利率很低，净财富要增长只有进入资本 市场。所以资本市场增量（资金）的来源和过去已经发生了转折性变化。"9月25日，国务院发展研究中心原副 主任刘世锦在第四届五矿产业金融论坛上如此表示。 刘世锦以"'十五五'时期中国经济持续稳定高质量发展的重点、战略与政策"为题讲述建设金融强国时谈到的前 述看法。他还谈到，需求约束、消费不足是"十五五"期间我国面临的最为紧迫且严峻的挑战，建议重点推动三 个领域结构性改革以有效扩大消费。 消费结构性偏差问题"水落石出" 刘世锦表示，近年来，中国经济疫后复苏进程尽管有曲折，但总体呈现回升向好态势。前两年分别实现5.2% 和5%的增长目标，在全球各大经济体中居前。 另外，宏观经济面临日益增大的需求下降压力，GDP平减指数连续9个季度处于负增长状态。从2010年一季度 开始，中国经济增长逐步转向中速，同时约束由供给转向需求。需求约束主要不是投资不足，而是消费不足。 这依然是"十五五"时期面临的最为紧迫且严峻的挑战。 "我国消费占GDP的比重，不论是与现阶段国际平均水平相比，还是与典型经济体相同发展阶段平均水平相 比，都存在相 ...

过去几十年，中国经济腾飞的秘密是什么？ 关于这个问题的答案，众说纷纭。比较主流的观点之一是：中国经济的发展故事就是一部" 储蓄的奇迹 "。从上世纪八十年代一个普通的发展中国家，到如 今成为世界制造业和出口大国，中国靠的是一种"高储蓄—高投资"的发展模式【1】。道理不复杂：老百姓少消费、多存钱，政府和企业就能拿到足够的资 金搞投资。修路、建桥、盖厂房，GDP自然飞速增长。 这个模式在头二十年确实管用。从九十年代到2000年代，中国GDP年均增速超过10%，而居民收入也以每年6-7%的速度上涨。虽然收入增速比不上 GDP，但在老百姓眼里，口袋确实鼓了不少【1】。就像一个家庭，父母拼命加班挣钱，把大部分钱拿去买房子、装修，孩子的零花钱增加虽然是小头，但 还是比过去多很多，所以短期内也能接受。 问题是，这种模式一旦走到尽头，副作用就会慢慢显现。 储蓄率过高，意味着消费不足，结果是产能必须靠出口来消化 。2007年前后，中国的经常账户 顺差一度达到GDP的10%【1】。这在经济史上非常少见。换句话说，中国生产得比消费得多得多，于是把多余的产能卖到海外。美国和欧洲的消费者成 了"平衡器"，买下了中国的货，也承担了由此带来 ...

Group 1 - The concept of "anti-involution" is becoming a key term in institutional reform, indicating a restructuring attempt of institutional design and social ecology [2] - The current economic challenges in China are linked to a long-term reliance on export-driven growth, which has suppressed wage and consumption growth [3][4] - The need for income distribution reform and welfare system construction is emphasized as a fundamental path to alleviate household financial risks and stimulate real consumption and investment [4][5] Group 2 - The historical context of China's economic development is analyzed through the lens of three long historical cycles: globalization, hegemonic shifts, and technological revolutions [5][6] - The transition from an export-oriented model to a supply-side driven domestic demand model has created a complex relationship between real estate and macroeconomic growth [16][17] - The current economic environment is characterized by a shift in the relationship between real estate and economic growth, with a decreasing reliance on real estate as a primary driver of economic expansion [16][18] Group 3 - The establishment of a welfare state is deemed essential for supporting consumer spending and creating a robust domestic market, which is crucial for China's position in the international political economy [21][22] - The challenges posed by the rise of artificial intelligence and its impact on labor markets necessitate a reevaluation of income distribution mechanisms [13][14] - The need for balanced regional development is highlighted as a prerequisite for further opening up the market and achieving common prosperity [18][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Alumina**: The alumina market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply, stable demand, with loose spot supplies and potentially accumulating inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum market has relatively stable supply and weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the molten aluminum ratio. It is advisable to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cast aluminum alloy market is in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. Short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing prices of the main contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all declined; the three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum also decreased [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between the main and second - consecutive contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends of increase or decrease [2]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased, that of alumina increased, and that of cast aluminum alloy decreased [2]. - **Inventories**: LME aluminum inventory, LME aluminum cancelled warrants, and Shanghai aluminum inventory on the previous trading day all decreased; the total inventory of alumina and Shanghai aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum, Yangtze Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum, alumina spot price, and average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot all decreased to varying degrees [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased, while the basis of electrolytic aluminum and alumina increased [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The production, import, and export of alumina all increased; the demand decreased, and the supply - demand balance increased [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The import and export of aluminum scrap decreased; the average prices in Foshan and Shandong remained unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, the import and export decreased, the production capacity utilization rate and the start - up rate increased [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The production of aluminum products increased, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The production of automobiles decreased in July 2025 compared with the previous period; the national real estate prosperity index declined [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The production of aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, while the built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum showed different trends; the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum increased slightly, and the call - put ratio decreased [2]. 3.7 Industry News - China's economic data in July showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size and social consumer goods retail sales increased year - on - year, while real estate development investment decreased [2]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and promote a reasonable rise in prices [2]. - The Trump administration in the United States expanded the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [2]. - In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year [2].

Group 1 - The current consumption deficiency in China is a structural deviation that needs to be addressed through investment policies and funding to stimulate consumption and create new growth momentum for transformation [1] - The low proportion of service consumption in GDP indicates a structural issue in consumption, necessitating structural reforms focused on enhancing the consumption capacity of low-income groups, particularly in education, healthcare, affordable housing, and social security [1][2] - The proposal includes three reforms: first, addressing the structural housing deficit for new citizens, allowing local governments to use special bonds to acquire unsold housing for affordable housing projects [1][2] Group 2 - The disparity in pension benefits between urban workers and rural residents, which is nearly 30 times, significantly impacts consumption capacity and economic growth, suggesting a need for a more equitable pension system [2] - Recommendations for pension reform include increasing rural pensions to 620 yuan per month within three years and to 1000 yuan within five years to reduce the urban-rural gap [2] - The second urbanization wave should be driven by the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas, aiming to double the middle-income group from 400 million to 800-900 million in about ten years to boost consumption, especially in services [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for structural reforms to address the issue of insufficient consumption in China, which is seen as a structural deviation rather than a lack of investment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Consumption Insufficiency - China's economic growth faces severe challenges due to insufficient demand, primarily stemming from low consumption rather than low investment [3]. - The consumption gap is particularly pronounced in service sectors such as education, healthcare, and social security, with rural residents, especially migrant workers, being the most affected [3][4]. - The article highlights the importance of addressing the urban-rural dual structure to improve consumption levels [4][6]. Group 2: Structural Reforms - The concept of "terminal demand" is introduced, which combines consumption and non-productive investment, particularly in housing and infrastructure related to people's livelihoods [4]. - The article suggests that stimulating policies should focus on increasing consumption's share of GDP as a "hard task" for stable growth [6][8]. - Three key areas for structural reform are proposed: housing for migrant workers, pension system reform, and promoting urbanization in smaller towns [9][10][12]. Group 3: Housing and Pension Reforms - The first reform focuses on addressing the structural inadequacies in housing for new urban residents, suggesting local governments use special bonds to acquire unsold housing for social housing projects [9]. - The second reform aims to enhance the pension system by reallocating state-owned capital to social security funds and improving the long-term contribution system [10][11]. - The third reform encourages the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas to drive a new wave of urbanization, targeting a 75% urbanization rate within ten years [12].

Group 1 - The core argument is that the reduction in import value does not equate to weak consumption, as evidenced by a 5% growth in retail sales in the first half of the year [1][3] - Data shows that per capita disposable income increased by 5.3% nominally, and per capita consumption expenditure rose by 5.2% nominally, indicating stable consumer spending [3] - During the May Day holiday, domestic travel reached 314 million trips, with total spending of 180.27 billion yuan, reflecting strong consumer activity [3] Group 2 - The primary reason for the decline in imports is the increased competitiveness of domestic products, particularly in electronics, automobiles, and daily consumer goods [5] - In the smartphone market, domestic brands like Huawei and Xiaomi have captured over 80% market share, reducing the demand for foreign brands [5] - The automotive sector saw a 37.9% drop in imported vehicles, while exports increased by 9.4%, highlighting the impact of domestic alternatives [5] Group 3 - Policy initiatives are promoting supply chain security and encouraging the procurement of domestic equipment and materials, further reducing import demand [6] - External factors such as global chip supply chain fluctuations and rising international logistics costs are also influencing import levels [8] - The average import price of major commodities like crude oil and iron ore has decreased, contributing to the overall decline in import value [8] Group 4 - The reduction in imports is attributed to a combination of factors including consumption structure optimization, industrial upgrades, and declining prices of bulk commodities [8][9] - The trend of domestic manufacturing moving towards higher-end products is expected to continue, although certain key areas still rely on imports [9]

Core Insights - China's consumption growth is significantly lagging behind its large population and economic growth, raising questions about the underlying reasons for this consumption shortfall [1][2][4] Group 1: Current State of Consumption in China - The definition and measurement of consumption shortfall are established, with China's resident consumption rate at 37.2% in 2022, significantly lower than the global average of 53.8% [2][3] - The final consumption rate for China in 2023 is reported at 55.64%, which is still below the approximately 80% seen in developed countries [3] - A notable slowdown in consumption growth is observed, with a projected 3.5% increase in retail sales for 2024, contrasting sharply with historical growth rates that often exceeded 8% [2][4] Group 2: Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Consumption Shortfall - Low consumption propensity is identified as a core issue, with China's consumption propensity at 62% in 2022, compared to an average of 92.3% across 38 countries [6][8] - High housing prices contribute to consumer debt, with urban residents' real estate debt reaching 137.9% of household income, limiting their consumption capacity [9] - Income inequality is highlighted, with the top income group accounting for 46% of total income, leading to lower overall consumption rates [10] - An inadequate social security system is noted as a fundamental cause of low consumption, with high contribution rates and limited coverage increasing financial burdens on households [11] - Traditional consumption culture emphasizes saving over spending, which continues to influence consumer behavior [12] Group 3: Consumption Differences Across Demographics and Regions - Significant consumption behavior differences exist among income groups, with middle-income households contributing nearly 50% of total consumption [13] - Generational differences in consumption attitudes are emerging, particularly among the Z generation, who exhibit distinct purchasing behaviors [17][18] - Regional consumption disparities are noted, with consumption in central regions expanding while eastern and western regions show a trend towards balance [19] Group 4: International Comparisons and Lessons - China's service consumption accounts for approximately 46% of total spending, lower than that of the US (68.5%) and Japan (57.7%), indicating room for structural improvement [20][21] - Successful international experiences in enhancing consumption rates suggest that comprehensive policies are needed to boost service consumption and overall consumer confidence [22] Group 5: Future Consumption Trends - Predictions indicate that by 2030, service consumption levels in China could exceed 20,000 yuan, positioning it as a key growth driver [25][27] - The expansion of the middle-income group, projected to surpass 50% of the population by 2030, is expected to significantly enhance consumption potential [27]