股 票 研 究 12 月美国消费高基数下显示韧性，航空出行人 数同比微降 0.1% 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | | [Table_Industry] 纺织服装业 | | | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛开(分析师) | 021-23154510 | shengkai@gtht.com | S0880525040044 | | 钟启辉(研究助理) | 021-23185686 | zhongqihui@gtht.com | S0880125042254 | 本报告导读： 信用卡消费数据显示 25 年 12 月美国服装消费在去年高基数下仍有韧性。25 年 12 月美国航空出行人数同比下降 0.1%，全年表现平稳。迅销公布 FY26Q1 业绩，收入 利润均超预期并上调全年指引。 投资要点： 风险提示：终端消费意愿不及预期，原材料价格波动，行业竞争加剧。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 纺织服装业《迅销 FY26Q1 业绩超预期，优衣库 大中华转增、其余地区双位数增长》2026.01.09 ...

来源：中信证券研究 China Themes 中国主题 2026年投资展望 展望2026年，预计中国宏观经济呈现结构分化下的温和修复态势，全年经济增速或达4.9%，出口保持 韧性，投资逐步回暖，商品消费短期承压。2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复 的特征，我们推荐商品>股票>债券。我们首推China Themes（中国主题）报告，聚合2026年大类资产展 望、宏观政策及产业投资看点，并梳理各行业重点公司，供投资者参考。 ▍大类资产：2026年大类资产环境或呈现流动性边际宽松与经济温和修复的特征，我们推荐商品>股票 >债券。权益方面，我们预计2026年万得全A全年涨幅5%-10%；港股预计迎来业绩触底反弹+第二轮估 值修复的戴维斯双击行情；美股在中期选举年"财政+货币"双宽松背景下，料将延续基本面增长动能。 债券方面，我们预计10年期中债收益率全年运行区间为1.5%-1.8%，节奏先下后上；10年期美债收益率 或维持3.9%-4.3%的区间波动。商品方面，原油供需格局由过剩转向平衡，布伦特原油全年或在58-70美 元/桶区间震荡；黄金在流动性宽松与地缘风险支撑下延续强势但涨幅趋缓，有望冲击 ...

国内宏观政策利好不断，近期中央提前向地方下达2026年第一批625亿元超长期特别国债，用于支持消 费品以旧换新，以满足元旦、春节等旺季消费需求。为提振消费，政策打出"组合拳"，加强财政金融协 同以放大政策效能，进一步增强了市场乐观情绪。 基本面，沪锌社库续降、供应收缩预期强，现货保持升水，国内炼厂减产延续，1月锌锭产出预计环比 基本持平，对锌价形成支撑。消费端虽进入行业淡季，但在"十五五"开局、开门红预期下，消费仍具韧 性。 整体来看，锌基本面中性，矛盾有限，资金交投热情一般，暂呈震荡态势，不过宏观偏好主导，今日现 货锌价或上涨，参考价格区间为2.33 - 2.45万元/吨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 【ccmn.cn摘要】美指走软及铜铝大涨催生市场乐观情绪，隔夜伦锌收涨2.59%；沪锌社库续降、供应收 缩预期强，现货升水及宏观偏好主导，今现锌或上涨。 【ccmn.cn锌期货市场】隔夜伦锌震荡走强，盘中走势强劲，开盘报3139.5美元/吨，高点报3213.5美 元，低点报3136美元，尾盘收于3208美元，涨81美元，涨幅2.59%；成交量16928手增加9214手， ...

FY26H1业绩 FY26H1(截至2025年9月30日)，六福集团业绩超预期。期内实现收入68.4亿港元(同比+25.6%)，归母净 利润6.2亿港元(同比+42.5%)，毛利率同比提升2个百分点至34.7%，达历史新高。从季度表现来看，业 绩持续改善，恢复动能强劲。FY26Q1集团零售值同比增长13%，同店销售上升5%;FY26Q2零售值进一 步提速，同比增长18%，同店销售增速升至10%。 产品端：公司持续推进高毛利产品占比，定价类产品表现突出，成为结构优化引擎 FY26H1黄金及铂金类收入40.96亿港元，同比增长11.0%占比达到64.3%，毛利率增加2.8%提升至30.3%; 定价首饰收入22.76亿港元，同比增长67.9%，占比35.7%。分季度看，FY26Q1内地自营定价黄金同店 +69%，定价首饰同店+16%;港澳定价黄金+74%，定价首饰+19%。FY26Q2内地自营定价黄金同店 +49%，定价首饰+8%;港澳定价黄金+68%，定价首饰+27%。定价黄金产品的销售占比在Q1提升至 16%-17%，结构性利好持续释放。 智通财经APP获悉，东北证券发布研报称，短期看，六福集团(00590)期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that despite budget constraints, consumer demand for electronics and new clothing remains strong, leading to a year-over-year retail sales increase of approximately 4% during the holiday season in the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Visa reported that from November 1 to December 21, U.S. retail sales (excluding automobiles, gasoline, and dining) grew by 4.2%, slightly below the October forecast of 4.6% for the full two months [1] - Mastercard indicated that its data, which includes retail and dining establishments, showed a year-over-year sales increase of 3.9%, surpassing the previous expectation of 3.6% [1] Group 3 - Both companies noted that early promotional activities and the convenience of online shopping contributed to the growth of online sales, which outpaced physical store sales [2] - Visa stated that physical stores still dominate consumer spending, accounting for 73% of transactions, while online transactions represent 27% [2] Group 4 - The growth in consumer spending was led by electronics, with Visa reporting a year-over-year sales increase of 5.8% for products like televisions and smartphones, followed by a 5.3% increase in clothing and accessories [2] - Mastercard mentioned that seasonal promotions and cold weather stimulated demand for new clothing, with jewelry also seeing increased consumer interest this year [2]

Group 1: Economic Structure and Trends - The service and manufacturing sectors are not in opposition but rather have a symbiotic relationship, as evidenced by the increase of over 7 percentage points in the service sector's share of global GDP from 1980 to 1996, while manufacturing remained stable[1] - From 2002 to 2019, both sectors exhibited a synchronized trend of rise and fall, indicating their interdependence rather than a zero-sum game[1] - Manufacturing acts as an incubator for service industries, with many productive services like logistics and R&D initially emerging from within manufacturing firms[1] Group 2: Support and Demand Dynamics - The large service sector constitutes the core consumer base for manufacturing products, creating significant demand for items ranging from medical equipment to educational materials[2] - Services play a crucial role in enhancing human capital, which is essential for the quality of manufacturing inputs, thereby supporting innovation and breakthroughs in the manufacturing sector[2] - The current economic transition in China highlights the need for high-quality development in manufacturing to create more opportunities for productive services like R&D and digital services[2] Group 3: Current Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 1.70% year-on-year, indicating a contraction in investment activities[4] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 2.90% year-on-year, reflecting some resilience in consumer spending[4] - Exports have declined by 1.10% year-on-year, suggesting pressure on external demand[4] - The M2 money supply has grown by 8.21%, indicating a continued expansionary monetary policy[4]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is expected to experience upward price trends in the medium to long term due to strong demand and rigid supply, despite potential short-term price declines due to seasonal pressures in the consumption off-season [1][5]. Group 1: Macro Environment - The macroeconomic outlook has improved, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September and October, boosting sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market [1]. - The easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S. has alleviated concerns regarding aluminum product trade barriers, contributing to a more optimistic macro environment [1]. - Political uncertainties in the U.S. have decreased, and economic data has not been as pessimistic as expected, further strengthening the positive macro outlook [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - Recent weather conditions in Guinea and reduced shipments from Australia have led to a significant decline in bauxite inventory at ports, but shipments are expected to return to previous levels after the rainy season [2]. - Domestic aluminum oxide production remains stable due to sufficient raw material inventory, with a capacity utilization rate of 84.05% as of October, despite a slight decline [2]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearly fully utilized at 97.46%, with limited room for future capacity growth [3]. - Global electrolytic aluminum production is estimated at 72 million tons for 2024, with China contributing about 60%, while overseas production faces constraints from energy costs and infrastructure issues [3]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Overall consumption of aluminum shows resilience, although the average operating rate for aluminum profiles is significantly lower than in previous years [4]. - Demand in traditional construction sectors is weak, but strong demand in sectors such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and ultra-high voltage infrastructure supports consumption resilience [5]. Group 4: Price Outlook - The global aluminum market is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, heavily reliant on China's nearly full production capacity [5]. - Short-term price pressures may arise as the market enters the traditional consumption off-season, following a recent surge in prices above 22,000 yuan/ton [5].

Core Insights - The annual "Double 11" e-commerce promotion is a crucial period for consumer demand release, positively impacting various industries, including the liquor sector, with Feitian Moutai leading the market performance [1] - Feitian Moutai's stable terminal price reflects genuine consumer demand, with an average transaction price of 1835 yuan per bottle on November 11, remaining consistent [1][2] Pricing Trends - The terminal retail price for Feitian Moutai on November 11 was 1835 yuan per bottle, showing stability compared to previous days [2] - Prices for other premium liquors, such as Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, have seen slight declines, indicating a competitive market environment [2] - Regional price data shows that Feitian Moutai prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Hubei markets are consistent with the overall trend, maintaining a stable to upward trajectory [2][3] Market Dynamics - The liquor industry is currently facing pressure, but leading companies like Moutai demonstrate resilience and confidence, fostering closer collaboration with distributors to optimize supply chains and alleviate inventory pressures [4] - Consumers are increasingly recognizing the importance of purchasing from legitimate channels, moving away from speculative buying behaviors, which is contributing to a more rational market environment [5] - Recent measures by platforms like Douyin to combat low-price sales of Moutai aim to curb false marketing and counterfeit products, benefiting Moutai's market position [5]

Core Insights - Mastercard's Q3 earnings exceeded analyst expectations due to strong consumer and business spending [1] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 was $4 billion, or $4.38 per share, surpassing the expected $3.91 billion, or $4.31 per share [1] - Q3 revenue reached $8.6 billion, a 16.7% year-over-year increase, also exceeding analyst forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Total transaction volume for Q3 was $2.75 trillion, meeting market expectations and up from $2.63 trillion in Q2 [1] - The number of cards issued increased by 6%, rising from 3.42 billion in Q3 2024 to 3.64 billion [1] - The company maintains its forecast for a "mid-high teens" percentage growth in net revenue for 2025, consistent with previous predictions made in July [1] Market Context - Mastercard's performance aligns with that of its competitor Visa, which also reported strong quarterly results, highlighting resilient spending [1]

Core Insights - A-shares are experiencing a divergence in performance, with traditional sectors like banking and coal leading gains while high-growth sectors such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence are declining [1][4] Sector Performance - The coal sector has seen a rise of 9.53% in October, while the banking sector has increased by 5.53% [5] - Traditional sectors such as banking, coal, ports, and liquor are showing strong performance, contrasting with the significant pullback in technology-related sectors like electronics and communications [4][5] - The banking sector (881155.TI) has a median price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.73 and a dividend yield of 4.22%, indicating its defensive characteristics [3] Market Trends - The current market environment is influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to enhance liquidity and improve market risk appetite [6] - Analysts suggest that high-dividend and consumer sectors may be more attractive for investors in the short term, while technology and manufacturing sectors could become focal points in the medium term [6]