2025 年 7 月 11 日，由起点锂电、起点 固态电池 、起点两轮车及换电主办 ， 以 "换电之城 智慧两轮"为主题 的 2025 第五届起点两轮车 换电大会暨轻型动力电池技术高峰论坛 在 深圳宝安登喜路国际酒店正式举办。 会议同期，起点研究院SPIR正式发布 2025中国两轮车共享换电电池TOP排行榜及行业白皮书，具体内容如下： 1-1、电动两轮车行业发展 2020-2026年中国电动两轮车出货量及预测 2021-2026年中国锂电电动两轮车出货量及预测 中国锂申库出货量 中国锂申申白出台量（万辆） 中国电动两轮车出货量(万辆) 一 锂田申动两轮车 =同比描述 H台最合计(万辆) 15.0% 670 5800 700 10.0% 600 540 462 5.0% 500 436 400 0.0% 4960 300 500 200 85 80 9.8% 70 10.09 100 15.09 2022 2023 2025F 2026P 2021 2024 202 202 2023 2024 2025B 2026 备注:1、以上数据含中国企业出口海外数据:2、电摩数据含电轻摩:3、电自含出口海外E-bike ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the penetration rate of the new energy vehicle market in China is expected to reach 57% this year, with the share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) projected to be lower than last year's level [1] - Over the next 2 to 3 years, the growth rate of PHEV models is expected to further slow down as inventory reduction is completed [1]

2025 年 7 月 11 日 S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn S0340124020014 电话：0769-22117626 邮箱： wuzhenjie@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFinD，东莞证券研究所 超配（维持） 汽车行业双周报（2025/06/27-2025/07/10） 行 业 6 月我国整车产销双增长，"反内卷"有望降低价格战风险 汽车行业 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 分析师：刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： 申万汽车行业指数涨跌幅：截至2025年7月10日，申万汽车板块近两周 下跌1.62%，跑输沪深300指数2.16个百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第 31名；申万汽车板块从7月初至今下跌1.19%，跑输沪深300指数3.07个 百分点，在申万31个行业中排名第30名；申万汽车板块从2025年初至今 上涨7.61%，跑赢沪深300指数5.70个百分点，在申万31个行业中排 ...

电力钟声系列 4： 储能中长期需求怎么看？ 报告要点 对储能 的预期 可以更乐观 。2024 年中国新增投运新型储能装机为 43.7GW/109.8GWh，同比增长 103%/136%，市场部分观点认为 2025 年中 国储能装机增速可能大幅下滑甚至负增长，但我们认为储能产业指数级增长 才刚开始，可以对未来的预期更乐观一点。2025 年 1-6 月中国储能累计并网 /招标 42.4gwh/176.6gwh，同比增长 166%/281%。除了短期数据的持续验证， 我们的依据更多来自对中长期需求峰值及产业生命周期位置的判断。 需求愈发迫切，经济性已迈过拐点。储能需求产生有两大前提，一是光伏消纳 出现问题，二是储能度电成本可负担。2025 年以来中午时段现货市场"负电 价"成为常态，多个现货省份光伏月均结算电价连续低于 0.1 元/kwh，电力系 统对储能需求迫切。另外，我们测算目前 4H 独立储能电站的度电成本在 0.35- 0.60 元区间，目前部分省份独立储能项目已经初步具备经济性。 中长期需求测算，全球储能仍有 8.6 倍成长空间。根据"能源转型→双碳目标 →风光中长期需求→储能中长期需求"的逻辑推导和模型 ...

美国关税政策对阳光电源有何影响？ 阳光电源 20250710 摘要 阳光电源估值处于历史低位，约为 10 倍 PE，主要因市场对美国储能政 策、关税及全球储能系统集成格局存在担忧，但实际影响可控。 美国关税政策虽有变动，阳光电源通过与客户谈判分摊成本，基本完成 对美 8GWh 出货目标，美国市场风险可忽略。 大而美法案最终版本对中国企业影响相对缓和，补贴逐步退坡，中国企 业仍有机会向美国销售产品。 国内 136 号文提升储能质量要求，反内卷政策有望改善国内竞争格局， 对阳光电源形成利好。 储能系统集成环节故障率高，阳光电源等具备交流侧交付能力的企业， 通过溢价获得更高利润。 构网型储能依赖 PCS 技术，阳光电源等具备 PCS 优势的企业引领技术 和规范制定，受益于新能源渗透率提升。 预计阳光电源 2025 年至 2027 年分别实现盈利 144 亿、172 亿和 207 亿元，维持重点推荐评级。 Q&A 阳光电源在当前光储板块中的表现如何？ 阳光电源在当前光储板块中表现突出，无论从绝对值还是增速角度来看，都是 行业上行下行周期中最坚挺的公司。近期，阳光电源的投资逻辑有所改善，包 括国内 136 号文推出后， ...

日本汽车出口美国正面临重大挑战。 暴跌1 9 . 4% 7月10日，日本央行公布的企业商品价格报告显示，今年6月，以合约货币计算的日本对北美汽车出口价格指数 同比暴跌19.4%。 日本央行最新披露的数据显示，今年6月，以合约货币计算的日本对北美汽车出口价格指数同比暴跌19.4%， 为有记录以来的最大单月降幅。 与此同时，美国电动汽车市场即将迎来一个关键转折点。巴克莱指出，受美国总统特朗普的"大而美"税收和支 出法案影响，今年第三季度美国或将出现电动汽车抢购潮，随后在四季度及更长时间内，美国电动汽车销量预 计将急剧下滑，美国电动汽车渗透率可能长期承压。 有分析指出，在关税压力下，日本汽车制造商以创纪录的速度削减出口到美国的产品价格，宁愿牺牲利润，但 求保住竞争力。 其他数据也印证了日本车企的策略选择。数据显示，5月份日本对美汽车出口额下降了24.7%，但从出口量来 看，仅下降了3.9%。出口额与出口量之间如此巨大的差异，则证明了单车出口价格的显著下滑。 这直接引发了市场对日本车企盈利能力的担忧，甚至可能威胁到日本经济至关重要的薪资持续增长势头。日本 央行正密切关注这一动态，因为薪资－通胀的良性循环是其决定下一次 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In the first half of the year, China's automotive production and sales reached 15.62 million and 15.65 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [1] - In June, automotive production and sales were 2.794 million and 2.904 million units, with year-on-year growth of 11.4% and 13.8% [1] - The top fifteen automotive groups sold a total of 14.43 million units, accounting for 92.2% of total sales, with BYD leading at 2.146 million units, a 33.0% increase [1] Group 2: Passenger Vehicle Market - Passenger vehicle production and sales totaled 13.52 million and 13.53 million units in the first half, with year-on-year growth of 13.8% and 13% [2] - Chinese brand passenger vehicles sold 9.27 million units, a 25% increase, capturing 68.5% of the market share, up 6.6 percentage points from the previous year [2] - In June, sales of Chinese brand passenger vehicles reached 1.707 million units, growing by 19.3% [2] Group 3: Segment Performance - The top ten sedan manufacturers sold 3.907 million units, accounting for 68.9% of total sedan sales, while the top ten SUV manufacturers sold 4.802 million units, representing 67.5% of SUV sales [3] - New energy vehicles (NEVs) were a significant highlight, with production and sales of 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, reflecting year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [3] - In June, NEV production and sales were 1.268 million and 1.329 million units, with new car sales accounting for 45.8% of total new car sales [3] Group 4: Powertrain Types - Both pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles showed rapid growth, with pure electric vehicle production and sales at 4.488 million and 4.415 million units, marking year-on-year growth of 50.1% and 46.2% [4] - NEV domestic sales reached 5.878 million units, a 35.5% increase, making up 46.8% of total domestic sales [4] - NEV exports reached 1.06 million units, a 75.2% increase, with June exports at 205,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 140% [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The automotive industry anticipates continued growth in the second half of the year, driven by the orderly implementation of "two new" policies and a rich supply of new products from companies [5]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 15 million units, with production at 15.62 million and sales at 15.65 million, representing year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% respectively [1] - The domestic market for new energy passenger vehicles has surpassed that of fuel vehicles, with sales of new energy vehicles reaching 5.52 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, while traditional fuel vehicle sales fell by 1.8% to 5.43 million units [1] - New energy vehicles accounted for 44.3% of total industry sales, indicating a significant shift towards electrification [1] Group 2: Profitability and Competition - Despite increased production and sales, the automotive industry's profits have declined, with profits for January to May 2025 at 178.1 billion, down 11.9% year-on-year, and a profit margin of 4.3% [1][2] - Intense price competition among companies is a primary reason for low profit margins, prompting industry associations to advocate against harmful competition and for improved product quality [2] - The Central Financial Committee has emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and promote the exit of outdated production capacity [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Domestic brands are increasing their market share, with Chinese brand passenger vehicle sales reaching 68.5%, a rise of 6.6 percentage points year-on-year, while foreign brands continue to decline [3] - The top fifteen car manufacturers account for over 90% of the market share, with sales of 14.43 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [3] - BYD, SAIC, and Geely are leading the sales rankings, collectively holding a market share of 36.9%, with BYD achieving sales of 2.1 million units, a 33% increase [4] Group 4: Export Trends - China has become the world's largest automobile exporter, with passenger car exports reaching 2.581 million units in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.3% [6] - New energy vehicle exports surged by over 70% to 1.06 million units, while fuel vehicle exports declined by 7.5% [6] - Chery remains the top exporter, with 550,300 units exported, accounting for 17.8% of total industry exports [7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The automotive industry is expected to continue its transformation towards electrification and smart technology, with companies focusing on local market penetration and brand building [6] - The competition in the market is anticipated to intensify as companies strive to meet their annual sales targets, with BYD, SAIC, and Geely setting ambitious goals for 2025 [5][6] - The growth in exports is driven by the increasing demand for plug-in hybrid and mixed-power vehicles, particularly in markets like Australia and Southeast Asia [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a closing price of 31.65 CNY as of July 10, 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The company has entered a pivotal point in its stamping customer structure, with the electroplating business catalyzing new growth. The goal is for the new energy business to account for 25% and 60% of total revenue by 2025 and 2030, respectively [1][3]. - The company has a strong foothold in the automotive stamping parts sector, expanding its customer base and national production capacity, which is expected to drive growth [2][3]. - The acquisition of the electroplating business has created a second growth curve, with the company becoming a key supplier in the precision electroplating sector, particularly in the power semiconductor field [3][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report focuses on the company, which has over 30 years of experience in the automotive parts industry, forming four main business segments: stamping parts, assembly parts, precision electroplating, and molds. The company has established solid partnerships with major automotive manufacturers [10][12]. 2. Stamping Parts and Electroplating Business - The company is a leading supplier of automotive stamping parts, leveraging its long-standing relationship with SAIC Group and expanding into new energy vehicle manufacturers like Tesla and Li Auto [20][32]. - The precision electroplating business, acquired in 2022, has significantly contributed to revenue and profit, with a projected contribution of 1.8 billion CNY in revenue and 1.1 billion CNY in net profit for 2024 [29][45]. 3. Industry Overview - The automotive stamping parts market is projected to reach approximately 270 billion CNY by 2025, with a CAGR of 2.6% from 2025 to 2030. The industry is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape [47][63]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for lightweight components in the automotive sector, driven by the rise of new energy vehicles, which is expected to enhance the market for stamping parts [46][63]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 35.2 billion CNY, 44.5 billion CNY, and 52.8 billion CNY, respectively, with net profits projected at 5.0 billion CNY, 6.5 billion CNY, and 8.0 billion CNY [3][5]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong management capabilities and cost control, which are expected to lead to sustained improvements in net profit margins [2][39].

Group 1: Market Overview - From July 1-6, the national retail sales of passenger cars reached 238,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1%, but a decrease of 6% compared to the previous month. Cumulative retail sales for the year reached 11.14 million units, up 11% year-on-year [1][3] - In the same period, wholesale sales of passenger cars were 233,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 39% and no change from the previous month. Cumulative wholesale sales for the year reached 13.51 million units, up 13% year-on-year [1][5] - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles (NEVs) was 56.7%, with retail sales of 135,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21% but a decrease of 11% from the previous month. Cumulative retail sales of NEVs reached 6.58 million units, up 37% year-on-year [1][3] Group 2: Market Trends and Predictions - The domestic economic situation has improved, particularly in exports, stabilizing domestic demand. July is expected to be a month of adjustment in the car market, with a structural differentiation in growth [3][4] - The trend of "old-for-new" vehicle replacement is anticipated to strengthen in the second half of the year, with recommendations for local governments to improve budget planning for subsidies [4][6] - The automotive industry is increasingly driven by both domestic and international demand, with a notable improvement in industry order and a strong start to production and sales in July [5][6] Group 3: Pricing Analysis - The number of models with price reductions has significantly decreased in 2025, with only 14 models in June compared to higher numbers in earlier months. The average price reduction for new energy vehicles was 12% in the first half of 2025 [8][9] - The average price reduction for conventional fuel vehicles was 8.9% in the first half of 2025, indicating a trend of stabilizing prices in the market [9][10] Group 4: Used Car Market Insights - The used car market in China is experiencing growth, with a transaction volume of 7.91 million units in the first five months of 2025, up 0.6% year-on-year, although transaction value decreased by 2.1% [9][10] - The potential for the used car market is significant, especially with the development of new energy vehicles, which provide consumers with lower-cost options for car ownership [10]