太平洋证券指出，当前时点，生猪养殖业基本面和政策面的变化有利于行业产能去化，且目前大多数养 殖上市公司头均市值（对应2025年预估出栏量）仍处于历史底部区间，距离历史均值有较大上升空间， 长期投资价值凸显。 东方证券表示，考虑到当前肥猪和仔猪价格近期已降至年内低点，后续价格有望进一步回落（目前看， 2026年初以前肥猪出栏量将持续处于高位）。参考历史经验，肥猪与仔猪价格同低阶段，行业大概率开 启市场化去产能。此外，政策端也在持续强化对头部集团场产能的限制，两者叠加下，行业整体去产能 有望重启，助力猪价长期上涨。 从估值方面来看，当前，农牧渔板块估值仍处低位，当前或为板块较好配置时机。数据显示，截至昨日 （10月9日）收盘，农牧渔ETF（159275）标的指数中证全指农牧渔指数市净率为2.61倍，位于近10年 来34.9%分位点的低位，中长期配置性价比凸显。 农牧渔板块今日（10月10日）逆市猛攻。全市场首只农牧渔ETF（159275）早盘低开后迅速拉升翻红， 而后全天红盘震荡，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到1.5%，截至收盘，逆市涨0.8%。值得注意的是，资金 午后加速抢筹，交易所数据显示，截至收盘，农牧渔ETF（ ...

养殖ETF（159865）跟踪中证畜牧养殖指数，含"猪"量约60%，感兴趣的投资者可以关注相关布局机 会。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 招商证券表示，受发改委政策指引影响，行业降重出栏，而消费端仍处季节性淡季，猪价月内整体维持 震荡下行趋势。预计猪肉消费步入旺季或对猪价底部形成支撑。上市猪企产能仍处释放期，仔猪销量占 比季节性回落。政策端基于提振CPI的目标着手调控母猪产能，或进一步抬升2026年猪价中枢，"低成本 +"猪企现金流或大幅改善，持续提升内在价值。 近期，资本持续流入养殖板块。养殖ETF（159865）近10个交易日净流入额超8亿元，根据Wind数据， 截至目前，今日盘中获申购超1.6亿份。 消息面，三大上市猪企牧原股份、新希望、温氏股份近日发布2025年9月生猪销售情况。从销量来看， 三大猪企销量同比均增长。环比方面，牧原股份环比减少，温氏股份和新希望环比增长。 ...

生猪养殖：产能去化的趋势与节奏 20251009 摘要 生猪价格近期快速下跌，主要受能繁母猪数量增加和季节性疫病影响减 弱双重因素影响，打破了年初至 9 月价格稳定在 14 元左右的局面。 效率周期是年初至 9 月猪价稳定的关键，冬季疫病导致的生产效率下降 形成供给缺口，支撑了该时段的价格，但随着疫病影响减弱，供给压力 显现。 二育对市场供应的影响有限，难以无限累积库存，历史数据显示其对整 体市场供应和价格走势的影响并不显著。 尽管农业部数据显示能繁母猪数量增幅有限，但牧原等公司的出栏增速 远超该数据，表明生产效率显著提升，未来供给压力仍然存在，或将影 响猪价维持高位。 非洲猪瘟消退显著改善了生产效率，减少了折扣效应，提高了市场供应， 解释了为何能繁母猪减少的情况下，年初猪价涨幅有限。 行业去产能过程预计加速，集团企业已开始去产能，散户预计在春节后 加入，上市企业可能在明年底剧烈去产，但价格上涨或疫病影响可能改 变节奏。 当前是配置生猪养殖板块股票的良好时机，重点关注龙头企业和具有成 长性的公司，预计板块整体有上涨空间，但需警惕未来较长的亏损期。 Q&A 为什么今年（2025 年）生猪价格在最近一段时间内快速 ...

如何看待近期生猪价格走势？20251008 摘要 生猪价格大幅下跌，从 7.5 元/斤降至 6.1-6.2 元/斤，主要由于前期压栏 和新生仔猪带来的产能扩张，导致市场供应量显著增加，预计 10 月份 需观察养殖公司售卖情况以确定价格底部，广西、贵州等区域或有小幅 下降。 短期内生猪价格可能出现反弹，幅度约为每公斤 1-2 元，主要因增重利 润下降导致行业体重下降，市场从非理性压栏转向抛售，未来可能出现 体重超调后的弥补性上涨，但反弹持续时间较短。 养殖行业正经历产能区划，育肥产能因亏损而减少，仔猪需求下降，母 猪仔猪产能方面，中小散户不再大幅增加自繁自养规模，300-1,000 头 母猪场面临压力，或将通过租用育肥场解决仔猪问题，若仔猪价格无改 善，将采取减产措施。 部分头部养殖企业已开始实施产能区划，但腰部和尾部企业因发展计划 与在建工程矛盾，需时评估并制定减产计划，各集团厂在 9 月底陆续上 报产能调整方案，国家指导和调控效果显现。 Q&A 最近生猪价格的整体走势如何？对四季度的价格有怎样的展望？ 近期生猪价格持续回落，主要是供应量增加的结果。首先，今年四五月份饲料 增幅逆季节性增长，导致大体重猪群在 ...

在及拉 2025 年 10 月 08 日 若研究先 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 研究支持 农林书馆 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%。个股涨幅前五名：华绿生物 (6.0%)、宏辉果蔬 (4.1%)、万 辰集团（3.7%）、生物股份（3.2%）、海南橡胶（3.1%）。投资分析意见：重视生猪养殖"反内卷" 进程，把握优质猪企 价值重估确定性。基本面+政策共同驱动下，生猪养殖行业产能去化节奏有望加快，关注板块左侧布局机会。十一期间行 业供给充裕，猪价跌速加快，肥猪与仔猪养殖均陷入亏损或将加快产能调减。向后展望，在亏损减产与"反内卷"政策的 双重推动之下，产能有望进入加速去化阶段。本轮猪周期步入下行尾声，左侧布局正当时。中期来看，伴随行业高质量发 展的开始，优质产能中长期盈利中枢与盈利稳定性均有望明显提升，业绩与股东回报兑现良好的头部猪企，正迎来一轮确 定性的价值重估。建议关注：牧原股份、德康农牧、温氏股份、诺普信、中宠股份、乖宝宠物、邦基科技、立华股份。 本周重点关注:《从 2025 年中报看猪周期新趋势— 一生猪 ...

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 10 月 08 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 十一猪价显著下跌，仔猪肥猪养殖同亏，关注产能去化进程 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数上涨 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 2.0%。个股涨幅前五名：华绿生物（6.0%）、宏辉果蔬（4.1%）、万 辰集团（3.7%）、生物股份（3.2%）、海南橡胶（3.1%）。投资分析意见：重视生猪养殖"反内卷"进程，把握优质猪企 价值重估确定性。基本面+政策共同驱动下，生猪养殖行业产能去化节奏有望加快，关注板块左侧布局机会。十一期间行 业供给充裕，猪价跌速加快，肥猪与仔猪养殖均陷入亏损或将加快产能调减。向后展望，在亏损 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the pork industry, highlighting that while major pork companies are reporting impressive profits, the capital market remains skeptical, leading to many pork stocks being undervalued or stagnant. The profits are primarily driven by cost reductions rather than price increases or expansion, indicating a lack of long-term growth potential [4][6]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Major pork companies like Muyuan Foods reported a net profit of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1169.77%, while Wens Foodstuff achieved a net profit of 3.475 billion yuan, up 159.12% [4]. - Despite these profits, many pork stocks are trading at low levels, with some being labeled as "zombie stocks" that fail to capitalize on market uptrends [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The profits reported by these companies are attributed to the decline in prices of key raw materials like corn and soybean meal, along with improved production efficiency, rather than an increase in demand or prices [6]. - The industry is facing a significant oversupply issue, with the number of breeding sows at 40.42 million, exceeding the normal holding capacity by 3.6% as of July 2025 [7]. Group 3: Policy and Market Response - The Chinese government has mandated a reduction of 1 million breeding sows by January 2026 among the top 25 pork producers, aiming to address the oversupply issue [7][9]. - However, the effectiveness of these policies is questioned, as smaller producers may not comply, leading to a potential mismatch in supply reduction efforts [10][13]. Group 4: Financial Viability and Future Outlook - The article notes that the self-breeding model in the pork industry has been profitable since May 2024, but as of September 2025, it has started to incur losses, with an average loss of 24.44 yuan per pig [18]. - The average price of pork has dropped to approximately 12.6 yuan per kilogram, while the average cost of production is around 12.8 yuan per kilogram, indicating that further price declines could lead to cash flow losses and necessitate capacity reductions [18][20]. Group 5: Efficiency and Competitive Landscape - The industry's production efficiency has improved significantly, with the number of weaned piglets per breeding sow increasing by 36% from January 2021 to January 2025 [22]. - Despite a reduction in the number of breeding sows, the overall supply of pork may remain high due to increased efficiency, which could continue to suppress pork prices [20][24]. Group 6: Investment Considerations - The article suggests that investors should focus on three key dimensions when evaluating pork companies: total cost, growth rate, and market valuation [26]. - A table summarizing the 2026 output targets, growth rates, and market valuations of 16 listed pork companies is provided, indicating a diverse landscape where no single company presents a perfect investment opportunity [27].

头图 | 视觉中国 在这种背景下，持有者的煎熬可想而知：猪肉股是否还有机会迎来结构性行情？其实关键在于下行周期能否出现拐点，答案又取决于两个核心变量：一是行 业能否通过"反内卷"实现主动去产能，二是是否会有外部压力倒逼的被动去产能。 主动去化"靠不住" 9月16日，农业农村部和国家发改委约谈了牧原、温氏、双胞胎、新希望等25家头部猪企。会议要求25家头部企业在2026年1月底前合计减少能繁母猪100万 头，并根据过去一段时间的能繁增量确定各企业的具体调减任务。同时还对出栏体重也进行了严格限制。对进度不达标者，将通过停补贴、停信贷等措施予 以惩戒。 其背后的核心矛盾在于生猪产能严重过剩。农业部数据显示，截至2025年7月末，全国能繁母猪存栏量仍达4042万头，相当于正常保有量的103.6%。 为什么市场迟迟等不到"供需缺口"，原因主要有两方面：其一，行业自2024年5月以来已维持16个月盈利，企业利润在不断积累；其二，市场格局正在向规 模场集中，出栏500头以上的规模场占比已接近七成，这类企业融资能力更强、抗亏损能力更高，反而在"撑住"产能。 "在猪周期里躲牛市"，或许正是猪肉股投资者的真实写照。 别看猪企20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping and concerns over overcapacity in the industry [1][4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 12.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, with half of the regions experiencing prices in the "5 yuan pig price zone" [1]. - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was 13.85 yuan/kg, and the average pork price was 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week [1]. - The cumulative output of listed pig companies from January to August 2025 reached 126 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 21.12% [6]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The current pig industry is in its sixth cycle, with the internal expansion phase nearing its end, leading to accelerated capacity reduction due to policy and losses [3][12]. - The Ministry of Agriculture plans to reduce the breeding sow stock by approximately 1 million heads to 39.5 million [8]. - By the end of July 2025, the breeding sow stock was at 40.42 million heads, which is 103.6% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a need for capacity regulation [5][9]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Price Trends - Consumer demand is expected to recover during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, potentially stabilizing prices [3]. - The market is witnessing a negative cycle where lower prices lead to panic selling among farmers, further driving prices down [7]. - The industry is shifting towards a more structured approach, with a focus on quality and differentiation rather than merely reducing capacity [12][13]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Adjustments - The government is actively implementing measures to control pig production, including meetings with major pig companies to discuss production adjustments [8][9]. - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs and Muyuan Foods are reducing their breeding sow numbers and controlling the weight of pigs at slaughter [12]. - The industry is expected to evolve into a "30-30-40" structure, with 30% of large enterprises ensuring basic capacity, 30% focusing on niche markets, and 40% being flexible family farms [13].

Core Viewpoint - The swine market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping significantly and concerns over overcapacity in the industry [1][7]. Price Trends - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China is 12.71 yuan/kg, with a notable decline in prices across various regions [1]. - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was reported at 13.85 yuan/kg, while pork averaged 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.8% [1]. Market Dynamics - Analysts indicate that the high inventory levels and pressure on enterprises to sell are contributing to the lack of a market bottom, despite government measures to regulate production capacity [3][5]. - The current swine industry is in its sixth cycle, with expectations that the effects of capacity reduction will become evident by the second half of 2026, potentially leading to price increases [5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The overall high inventory levels, coupled with insufficient consumer demand, have resulted in a "peak season not peaking" scenario for pig prices [7]. - By November 2024, the number of breeding sows is expected to reach a peak of 40.8 million, indicating a continued supply pressure [7]. Corporate Actions - Major companies are actively reducing their breeding sow numbers and controlling production to address overcapacity issues [16][17]. - For instance, companies like Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope are maintaining stable inventory levels and controlling the weight of pigs at the time of sale [17]. Market Sentiment - There is a shift in market sentiment, with some farmers exhibiting panic selling behavior, leading to a negative feedback loop where lower prices prompt quicker sales, further driving prices down [8]. - Despite the challenges, there is a consensus in the industry regarding the need for proactive capacity reduction and quality improvement [8]. Structural Changes - The industry is expected to evolve into a "three-three" structure, with 30% of leading enterprises ensuring basic capacity, 30% focusing on niche markets, and 40% consisting of medium-sized family farms leveraging flexibility [18].