1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards supply - dominated. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 123,900 - 130,120 yuan/ton. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 22,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, equal to the historical average. In December 2025, the output was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 97,970 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23%. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.46% [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 99,894 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,581 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.22%. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 118,137 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - day flat rate, and the production income is 696 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 116,523 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.71%, and the production income is - 1,177 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][10]. - **Other Indicators**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis on January 5 shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 119,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 10,480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, equal to the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: On the supply side, the monthly total output of lithium carbonate in December 2025 was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 27.59% month - on - month, and the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.64% month - on - month. On the demand side, the monthly output of some downstream products decreased, but the monthly total battery loading volume of power batteries increased by 11.18% month - on - month [18].

此外，马里的安全形势让市场再度关注起goulamina和bougouni两个锂矿项目的供应稳定性。"2026年， 碳酸锂本就进入紧平衡态势，若供给释放不及预期，无疑会增加价格的弹性。不过，马里地区的不稳定 并非新鲜事，且矿区安全相对有保障，供给是否会受影响还有待观察。"张维鑫说。 从基本面看，当前碳酸锂市场的供需格局呈现边际走弱态势。据SMM排产数据，2026年1月，下游需求 环比下降6%左右，供应则环比下降2.5%左右。余烁认为，虽然2026年1月需求排产环比下滑，但好于此 前市场预期，正极环节由于头部大厂集中检修，环比下滑幅度高于其他环节，但电池排产向好，需求总 体维持强势。 从库存看，截至2025年12月25日当周，碳酸锂周度库存为109605吨，环比减少168吨。银河期货分析师 陈婧认为，当前来看，碳酸锂去库或已经接近尾声，2026年1月大概率累库。但从2025年8月至年末已是 连续20周去库，上下游库存水平均偏低，库存向贸易环节集中。不过，因期货走势持续强于现货，较难 释放至流通领域。因此，即使2026年1月静态平衡转向累库，但上下游均有补库需求，价格下行空间不 大。 张维鑫也提醒称，尽管当前市场情 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - Supply disruption concerns are intensifying, and new energy metals remain strong. In the short - to - medium term, polysilicon and lithium carbonate will alternately lead the rise of new energy metals. In the long - term, the supply of silicon is expected to shrink, especially for polysilicon, with a possible increase in the price level. The lithium ore production capacity is still rising, but demand expectations are also growing, and the expected surplus in supply - demand is narrowing. The annual supply - demand inflection point for lithium carbonate may occur earlier. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情观点 Industrial Silicon - **View**: Supply - demand remains weak, and silicon prices show an oscillatory trend. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory". [6] - **Information Analysis**: As of December 22, the spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated slightly. The latest domestic inventory decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. As of November 2025, the monthly output of domestic industrial silicon decreased by 11.2% month - on - month and 0.7% year - on - year. In November, industrial silicon exports increased by 21.8% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year. In October 2025, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity increased by 30.43% month - on - month but decreased by 38.3% year - on - year. [6] - **Main Logic**: In terms of the fundamentals, the production of industrial silicon decreased in December. The demand from polysilicon, organic silicon was weak, and the demand boost from aluminum alloy was limited. Although the industry inventory decreased recently, there is still some pressure. Overall, the supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but the downstream demand weakened simultaneously, and the inventory continued to accumulate in December, with the fundamentals remaining weak. [6] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of industrial silicon are weak, but the coal price has recovered, and market sentiment fluctuates. It is believed that the price of industrial silicon will show an oscillatory trend. [7] Polysilicon - **View**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [7] - **Information Analysis**: As of the week of December 22, the average transaction price of N - type re - feedstock was stable week - on - week. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts on the GZFE remained unchanged. In November, China's polysilicon exports decreased by 18% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 62% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the newly installed domestic photovoltaic capacity increased by 39.5% year - on - year. A polysilicon platform company was registered on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan. The GZFE added new registered brands and adjusted the minimum order quantity for some polysilicon futures contracts. [7][8] - **Main Logic**: With the establishment of the polysilicon platform company, the expectation of state - reserve purchase has heated up again, and prices continue to be highly volatile. In the supply side, production in the southwest region decreased during the dry season, and the impact of anti - involution policies on supply needs to be monitored. In the demand side, the photovoltaic installation growth rate in the first five months was high but overdrew the demand in the second half of the year. The demand for polysilicon has gradually weakened since November. Although the fundamentals are weak, the anti - involution policy expectation provides strong price support at the bottom. [10] - **Outlook**: The anti - involution policy significantly boosts polysilicon prices. With the establishment of the platform company, market sentiment has improved, and the price of polysilicon may show an oscillatory and slightly bullish trend in the short term. [11] Lithium Carbonate - **View**: Demand remains strong, and lithium prices continue to rise. The medium - term outlook is "oscillatory and slightly bullish". [11] - **Information Analysis**: On December 22, the closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract increased by 2.68%, and the total open interest increased. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased, as did the average price of spodumene concentrate index. The number of warehouse receipts increased. The GZFE made adjustments to lithium carbonate futures delivery warehouses, and the total warehouse capacity increased by 7,000 tons. [11][12] - **Main Logic**: Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the long - term demand expectation is also strong. Market trading focuses on the resumption time of Jiaxiawo Mine and the off - season demand. The resumption expectation has been postponed, which is a major positive factor. There are differences in the market's expectation of January demand, and the social inventory decline has slowed down. In the short term, there are few negative factors, and the market sentiment is optimistic. However, attention should be paid to the possible emotional fluctuations caused by the increase in warehouse capacity. [12] - **Outlook**: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be mainly oscillatory and slightly bullish. [12] 2.行情监测 - Not provided with specific content in the text. 3.中信期货商品指数 - **Comprehensive Index**: - The commodity 20 index was 2,634.42, up 1.34%. - The industrial product index was 2,226.50, up 0.79%. - The PPI commodity index was 1,379.81, up 0.63%. [54] - **New Energy Commodity Index**: On December 22, 2025, the index was 493.12, with a daily increase of 0.25%, a 5 - day increase of 6.64%, a 1 - month increase of 13.17%, and a year - to - date increase of 19.57%. [55]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Second China International Lithium Industry Conference successfully held in Chengdu, Sichuan, focused on the development path and collaboration mechanisms of the lithium battery industry under the energy transition context, with over 400 participants from the global lithium industry [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Outlook - The lithium market is expected to gradually stabilize in 2025, characterized by "super resilience" in supply and a bottoming out of prices, with structural highlights in demand [5] - By 2026, global lithium supply is undergoing structural adjustments, with significant contributions expected from domestic Chinese sources, African lithium mines, and Argentine salt lakes, potentially increasing China's share of global lithium supply from 24% to 28% [5][6] - The supply growth in Chile is heavily reliant on a single project by SQM, while Argentina's capacity will peak between 2025 and 2026 before slowing down significantly [5] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Energy storage is emerging as the "second engine" for lithium battery growth, with a projected compound annual growth rate exceeding 20% over the next decade, indicating substantial room for market expansion [6] - The demand for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China may slow down due to policy changes, while Europe is expected to maintain stable growth supported by new product cycles [6] - The commercial vehicle sector faces challenges, with anticipated growth rates declining due to policy rollbacks and limitations in electric heavy truck applications [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Projections - The lithium carbonate market is predicted to enter a tight balance phase in 2026, leading to an average price level higher than that of 2025, supported by improved supply-demand dynamics and cost structures [6] - The conference highlighted the importance of professional and forward-looking research insights in guiding the lithium industry through cycles and restructuring competitive landscapes [7] - The company aims to leverage its central enterprise background and integrated financial services to provide strategic guidance for capital allocation and industry development, positioning itself as a catalyst for the lithium industry's transition to high-quality growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures contract LC2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged significantly, reaching a peak of 94,760 yuan/ton, with an increase of 8.50%, indicating strong market momentum and investor interest in lithium-related stocks [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium battery concept stocks experienced a substantial rise, with Rongbai Technology hitting a 20% limit up, and several other stocks like Furui Shares, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Rongjie Shares also reaching their daily limits [1] - Dazhi Futures analyst Zhang Tingyu predicts a strong supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate in 2026, with global supply expected to reach 2.078 million tons and demand at 1.977 million tons, indicating a significant improvement in the surplus compared to this year [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Forecasts - The bottom for lithium carbonate prices is believed to have been established in 2025, with expectations for a gradual upward trend in prices, although volatility is anticipated [1] - Key factors to monitor in the supply side for 2026 include the permit renewal issues at Jiangxi Mica Mine and the potential acceleration of previously stalled projects due to price increases [1] Group 3: Demand Considerations - On the demand side, the continuation of subsidies for electric vehicles and the sales performance of commercial vehicles, particularly heavy trucks, will be critical [1] - In the energy storage sector, policies in regions like Inner Mongolia and Ningxia are crucial, with expectations that the installed capacity for independent energy storage in 2026 will likely exceed forecasts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound in lithium carbonate prices has brought the energy storage industry back into focus, with futures prices reaching a peak of 88,200 yuan/ton before entering a range-bound fluctuation [1] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - As of November 12, lithium carbonate futures for the 2601 contract closed at 86,580 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.21% [1] - The current price fluctuations are attributed to a combination of news and demand-side factors, with supply-side sentiment disturbances gradually dissipating [1] - The release of a report on mining rights in Jiangxi Province, which valued the transfer at 247 million yuan, has contributed to a stabilization of market sentiment, despite the actual resumption of mining operations being uncertain until 2026 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - The focus in the lithium carbonate market has shifted from supply-side issues to demand-side factors, with analysts noting a significant improvement in the fundamentals [2] - As of the week ending November 6, lithium carbonate weekly production was approximately 21,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 454 tons, while weekly inventory decreased by over 3,400 tons to about 124,000 tons, indicating a faster pace of inventory reduction [2] - The increase in downstream orders for energy storage batteries has exceeded expectations, contributing to a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for lithium hexafluorophosphate rising nearly 90% in the past month [2] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - Analysts suggest that the price trend of lithium carbonate will be primarily driven by demand factors, with the supply side capable of responding to market changes in a relatively short time [2] - Current market conditions indicate that the industry may continue to deplete inventory until the end of the year, with strong performance in futures markets expected to persist [3] - Despite positive fundamentals, high prices may impact downstream demand, necessitating caution regarding potential price corrections due to demand declines [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Inter - term: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [4] Core View - The lithium carbonate futures market is mainly affected by supply - side disturbances. With the current mine stoppages, it is expected that domestic lithium carbonate will start to significantly reduce inventory in September. If subsequent production cuts are substantial and last for a long time, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate may reverse, and the futures price may still have upward potential with certain consumption support [2] Market Analysis Summary - On August 18, 2025, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 opened at 88,160 yuan/ton and closed at 89,240 yuan/ton, with a 4.67% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,036,328 lots, and the open interest was 421,106 lots, up from 401,139 lots the previous day. The current basis was - 4,160 yuan/ton, and the number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 23,555 lots, a change of 70 lots from the previous trading day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,500 - 86,700 yuan/ton, up 1,900 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 81,600 - 83,000 yuan/ton, also up 1,900 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 1,035 US dollars/ton, up 45 US dollars/ton from the previous day. Downstream procurement enthusiasm continued to increase, and market activity enhanced. Due to the rigid demand of some downstream enterprises and the reluctance of upstream and traders to sell, the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly [1] - According to the latest weekly data, the weekly output increased by 424 tons to 19,980 tons, with the output from salt lakes and spodumene increasing and the output from mica decreasing. The weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142,256 tons, with an increase in intermediate - link inventory and a decrease in smelter inventory [1] Strategy Summary - The lithium carbonate futures market is mainly affected by supply - side disturbances. The mining end in Jiangxi is greatly affected, with large factories having stopped production and the resumption progress unknown. Other mines are required to complete relevant report writing by September 30, and the subsequent impact on production is uncertain. In addition, a lithium salt production enterprise in Qinghai may face the possibility of shutdown due to mining license issues. Based on the current mine stoppages, it is expected that domestic lithium carbonate will start to significantly reduce inventory from September. If subsequent production cuts are large and last for a long time, the oversupply pattern of lithium carbonate may change, and the futures price may still have upward potential with certain consumption support [2]

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 11 to August 15, with lithium carbonate and palm oil leading gains, while the European shipping index saw the largest decline [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 2.71%, crude oil by 0.71%, and lithium carbonate rose by 12.92% [1] - The black metal sector saw slight fluctuations, with coking coal up by 0.24% and iron ore by 0.32%, while coking coal decreased by 0.26% [1] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - The recent suspension of operations at the Jiangxiawo mine due to expired mining licenses has raised concerns about lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant price increase [2] - Supply disruptions continue with the suspension of operations at the Qinghai Zhongxin Guoan salt lake, although the impact from the Yichun lithium mine is currently limited due to inventory levels [3] - In June, Chile exported approximately 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, with exports increasing by 43% month-on-month in July [3] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - In July, the demand for new energy vehicles and lithium batteries showed a slowdown in growth, but remains at high levels, with production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly to 142,256 tons, with a week-on-week reduction of 162 tons [4] - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate has not significantly improved, and prices are expected to remain volatile until supply disruptions are resolved [4] Group 4: Future Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that supply-side factors will be the market focus, with emotional fluctuations driven by news rather than fundamental changes [5] - The next critical date for the market will be September 30, when a reserve verification report is due, which may influence production changes at smelting plants [5] - Long-term projections indicate that overseas lithium mines are raising production targets for FY2026, which may exert pressure on lithium carbonate prices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of lithium carbonate is neutral. The supply side shows an increasing trend, with the production in July 2025 at 81,530 physical tons and a predicted production of 84,200 physical tons in the next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July 2025 was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand side is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost side shows that the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase, lower than the historical average level. The supply - demand pattern is turning to demand - led, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83,220 - 86,980 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,556 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.24%, higher than the historical average level. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 79,038 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.24%, with a production profit of 825 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 82,676 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.28%, with a production loss of 4,848 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 50,999 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84%, lower than the historical average level; the downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95%, higher than the historical average level; other inventories were 43,260 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%, higher than the historical average level; the total inventory was 142,418 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%, higher than the historical average level, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore (01) increased from 81,320 to 84,480, an increase of 3,160, or 3.89%. The price of lithium carbonate (04) increased from 78,880 to 82,540, an increase of 3,660, or 4.64% [14]. - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various products has also changed. For example, the basis of ternary materials (01) decreased from - 3,320 to - 3,480, a decrease of 160, or 4.82% [14]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has also changed, with the import volume from Australia and other regions showing different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the import volume from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has also changed [28]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The production from different sources (smelting, causticizing) and the total production have also shown different trends [37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds (purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite, recycled lithium carbonate from different sources, etc.) have changed over time. For example, the cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) have fluctuated, and the cost and profit of recycled lithium carbonate from different types of black powder have also shown different trends [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related - The inventory of lithium carbonate (smelter, downstream, other, total) and lithium hydroxide (downstream, smelter, total) has changed over time. The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has shown different trends [51]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells, the loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials), and the export volume of lithium batteries have shown different trends [54]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary precursors have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [60]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [66]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium Demand**: The price, production, cost, profit, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of different types of phosphoric acid iron lithium (power - type, low - end energy - storage type) has fluctuated, and the production, cost, profit, and inventory have also shown different trends [70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) have shown different trends, and the sales penetration rate and inventory have also changed [78].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Supply-side disruptions continue to ferment, and the market rises rapidly by the daily limit - Weekly report on lithium carbonate by Zhongtai Futures' Non-ferrous Metals & New Materials Team (July 27, 2025) [1] - Research Team: An Ran, Wang Haicong [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 3: Core Views - In July, the overall incremental production from restarts exceeded the reduction from maintenance, but the suspension of Zangge Lithium Industry in the salt lake segment led to a decline in overall production. The downstream demand was mainly based on on-demand procurement, showing differentiation and overall performing better than expected. The price of lithium carbonate rose rapidly, but the high price suppressed downstream demand, and there was also speculative demand. If the production suspension is implemented, it will affect the supply-demand pattern, and the surplus volume will be significantly reduced. If the production suspension expectation is not fulfilled, the fundamental surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the price of lithium carbonate will face a significant decline. In the short term, the price is boosted by news and shows emotional upward movement, and it will mainly fluctuate strongly until the expectation is verified. It is necessary to beware of the price decline risk caused by the failure of the production suspension expectation, and the short-term volatility will continue to increase. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13] Group 4: Section Summaries Part 01: Lithium Carbonate Overview - Supply: The overall incremental production from restarts in July exceeded the reduction from maintenance, but the suspension of Zangge Lithium Industry in the salt lake segment led to a 13.25% decline in salt lake production. The production at the mica end increased by 0.29%, and the production at the recycling end decreased by 0.35%. The import volume remained unchanged [12] - Demand: The weekly apparent demand decreased by 3.64%, and the available days of downstream inventory increased by 0.10%. The overall demand performance was better than expected [12] - Inventory: The lithium ore inventory at ports and warehouses decreased, while the overall inventory increased slightly. The inventory shifted from lithium salt plants to traders, and the surplus pattern continued to accumulate inventory. After the price rose rapidly, the warehouse receipts increased, but the growth rate still needed to be observed [12] - Cost and Profit: The cost of externally purchased spodumene and mica increased, and the profit of externally purchased spodumene decreased by 10.12%, while the profit of externally purchased mica increased by 1.93% [12] Part 02: Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Prices - Lithium Carbonate Market: The report presents data on the futures and spot prices, basis, trading volume, and open interest of lithium carbonate [16] - Lithium Ore Prices: It shows the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica [16] - Lithium Carbonate Prices: The prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, as well as the price difference between them, are provided. The production cost and profit of lithium carbonate are also analyzed [16] - Lithium Hydroxide Prices: The prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide and their price differences are presented [16] - Cathode Material Prices: The prices of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate are shown [16] - Power Battery Cell Prices: The prices of square lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, and 523 square ternary cells are provided [16] Part 03: Lithium Carbonate Upstream Supply Environment - Lithium Concentrate: The import volume of lithium concentrate, especially from Australia, is analyzed, including cumulative and monthly data and their changes [62] - Lithium Carbonate: The production capacity, monthly and weekly operating rates, production volume, production volume by raw material, import and export volume, and total supply of lithium carbonate are presented [62] Part 04: Lithium Carbonate Downstream Consumption Environment - Apparent Demand: The apparent consumption of lithium carbonate is analyzed [100] - Real Demand: The production volume, monthly operating rate, and production volume by grade of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, cobalt acid lithium, manganese acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented [100] - Terminal Demand: The production volume, shipment volume, inventory-to-sales ratio, and installation volume of lithium batteries, power batteries, energy storage batteries, and consumer batteries are analyzed. The production and sales of new energy vehicles and their penetration rate, as well as the winning bid scale and capacity of energy storage projects, are also provided [100] Part 05: Lithium Carbonate Inventory Structure - Weekly Inventory: The warehouse receipts by region, smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, other inventory, and total inventory of lithium carbonate are presented [194] - Monthly Inventory: The smelter inventory, downstream cathode material factory inventory, and total inventory of lithium carbonate on a monthly basis are analyzed [194] - Upstream and Downstream Inventory: The inventory of lithium ore, finished product inventory of lithium iron phosphate, and finished product inventory of ternary materials are provided [194]