社融增速

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7月金融数据点评:弱现实延续,债市阶段性脱敏
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-08-14 08:43
Core Insights - The report highlights a continuation of weak economic conditions, with a notable decline in new RMB loans in July 2025, amounting to -0.05 billion compared to 2.24 billion in June 2025. New social financing (社融) was 1.16 billion, down from 4.20 billion in June 2025, while the year-on-year growth rate of social financing was 9%, slightly up from 8.9% in June 2025 [3][4][5]. Group 1: Social Financing and Government Debt - Government debt continues to support the growth of social financing in July, with net financing reaching 1.25 billion, although this is a decrease from 1.41 billion in June. This high level of government debt financing has effectively supported social financing growth despite weak credit demand from the real economy [3][5]. - The report indicates that corporate short-term loans were low, while bill financing saw significant growth. This is attributed to a rapid decline in bill rates, which created a substitution effect with short-term loans, and effective measures to clear overdue accounts [3][4][5]. Group 2: Household and Corporate Credit Demand - Both household and corporate credit demand in July were below seasonal levels, reflecting low consumer willingness to spend and weak housing demand. The implementation of personal consumption loan subsidies and childcare allowances may stimulate future household consumption, but improvements in housing demand remain uncertain due to inventory and pricing factors [3][4][5]. - The report notes that new non-bank deposits increased to a seasonal high in July, indicating a trend of residents moving deposits to equity markets, influenced by favorable performance in the equity market and a seasonal decline in wealth management products [3][4][5]. Group 3: Monetary Indicators - M1 and M2 growth rates both increased, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing, suggesting a marginal improvement in economic activity. The increase in M1 is attributed to several factors, including a low base effect from previous financial data adjustments and significant net fiscal spending [3][4][5]. - The report also mentions that the bond market's pricing of fundamentals and liquidity has weakened, with a flattening yield curve reflecting pessimistic expectations for the economy. The bond market has shown weakness following the release of financial data, indicating a potential shift of funds from bonds to equities [3][4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the bond market may face pressure in August, coinciding with a peak in government debt supply. The coordination of monetary policy with fiscal liquidity may be challenging, and if bond market adjustments intensify, there is a possibility that the central bank may restart bond purchases [3][4][5]. - The report concludes that the third and fourth quarters may present risk windows, as a decline in government debt supply could reduce liquidity support, while inflation risks may rise [3][4][5].
2025年7月金融数据点评:M1延续高增趋势,社融增速或迎年内高点
Shanghai Aijian Securities· 2025-08-14 07:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, the M1 year - on - year growth rate was stronger than expected, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be strengthened. The rebound of M1 growth rate and the improvement of credit structure release positive signals, yet problems such as weak household credit and reliance on government bonds still exist. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of social financing stock may slow down, while the year - on - year improvement trend of M1 is expected to continue [6][26]. - The growth of social financing mainly depends on government bond issuance, and the growth rate of social financing may reach its peak this year. The support of government bonds for social financing is weakening, and the subsequent growth momentum of social financing needs to focus on the substantial improvement of real - entity financing demand [5][13]. - The recent bond market is under phased pressure. The biggest risk point in the bond market is the strengthening of the equity market. If the equity market stabilizes at key points, it may continue to have a negative impact on the bond market [8][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Data Review - **Social Financing**: In July 2025, the new social financing scale was 116 billion yuan, with government bond financing accounting for 107.24%. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.98%, and the social financing growth rate after excluding government bonds was 6.02%. The issuance of special bonds this year is significantly ahead of schedule. As the peak of special bond issuance passes, its support for social financing weakens, and the growth rate of social financing stock may be peaking [5][13]. - **Money Supply**: The year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded to 5.60%, mainly driven by the extremely low base effect of corporate current deposits in July 2024. The improvement trend of M1 year - on - year is expected to continue until September due to the low - base effect [5][19]. - **Credit**: New RMB loans were - 5 billion yuan, mainly relying on bill financing. The bill rediscount rate of state - owned joint - stock banks has been declining. The weak credit performance in July is due to the seasonal off - peak of credit and the impact of the revised "Regulations on Guaranteeing the Payment of Payments to Small and Medium - sized Enterprises" [5][22]. 3.2 Financial Data and Bond Market Outlook - **Leading Relationship**: The HP filtering cycle analysis shows that the year - on - year growth rate of M1 leads the Treasury bond yield by about 6 months. However, the recent rebound of M1 is mainly driven by the low - base effect, which may weaken the predictive power of this leading relationship [7][27]. - **Bond Market Situation**: The bond market is under phased pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 data, the improvement of market risk appetite, and policy expectations. The current biggest risk in the bond market is the strengthening of the equity market, and the yield of ten - year Treasury bonds has risen from 1.65% to around 1.70% [8][30].
2025年7月金融数据点评:信贷需求偏弱,社融增速或已见顶
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-08-14 04:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market, predicting that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of 2025 and may gradually return to around 1.65%, and the 5Y national stock secondary will fall below 1.9%. It is also bullish on long - duration sinking urban investment and capital bonds, urban investment dim sum bonds and US dollar bonds, and strongly recommends perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks, and pays attention to capital bond opportunities of Tianjin Bank, Beibu Gulf Bank, and China Property Insurance [2]. Report's Core View - In July 2025, credit demand was weak, with a rare negative growth in new loans. The growth rates of M2 and M1 both rebounded. Social financing increased year - on - year, but its growth rate may have reached a phased peak. The report is bullish on the bond market [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Content Credit Situation - In July, new loans were - 500 million yuan, a rare negative growth, indicating weak credit demand. The near - zero interest rate of 1 - month term transfer discount at the end of July reflected poor credit delivery. The reduction of time deposit rates in May may increase the pressure of early mortgage repayment. Individual loans decreased by 48.93 billion yuan, including a decrease of 38.27 billion yuan in short - term individual loans and 11 billion yuan in medium - and long - term individual loans. Corporate short - term loans decreased by 55 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans decreased by 26 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 87.11 billion yuan. Credit demand may be weak in the long term due to low capacity utilization in manufacturing, weak real estate investment, and limited infrastructure investment space [2]. M2 and M1 Situation - Since January 2025, the central bank has adopted a new M1 caliber, which further includes personal current deposits and customer reserves of non - bank payment institutions on the basis of the previous M1. As of the end of July 2025, the balance of the new - caliber M1 reached 111.06 trillion yuan. The new - caliber M1 growth rate in July was 5.6%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the end of the previous month, related to the stock market recovery and a low year - on - year base. The M2 growth rate in July was 8.8%, a 0.5 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [2]. Social Financing Situation - In July, the social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.39 trillion yuan, mainly from the net financing of government bonds and corporate bonds. The increment of RMB loans to the real economy was - 42.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 34.55 billion yuan; undiscounted bank acceptance bills were - 16.38 billion yuan; corporate bond net financing was + 27.91 billion yuan; government bond net financing was 1.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.56 trillion yuan. The social financing growth rate at the end of July was 9.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the end of the previous month and a 1 - percentage - point increase from the beginning of the year. It is expected that in 2025, new loans will be similar year - on - year, government bond net financing will increase significantly year - on - year, social financing will increase significantly year - on - year, the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, and may reach about 8.2% at the end of the year. Due to the misalignment of government bond issuance rhythms, the social financing growth rate may have reached a phased peak in July and may decline in the next few months [2]. Bond Market Outlook - The financial data in July reflected weak financing demand in the real economy. The recent bond market correction was mainly due to the non - bank sentiment fluctuations caused by the strong stock market, rather than changes in the economic fundamentals. In 2025, the bond market lacks a trending market and requires correct band operations. The report predicts that the yield of the 10Y Treasury bond will fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year, and currently, with the central bank's continuous easing, it is fully bullish on the bond market [2].
中金:金融数据中的几个新现象——7月金融数据点评
中金点睛· 2025-08-13 23:51
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights several new phenomena in credit and financial data for July, indicating a trend of private deleveraging and government leveraging in the second half of the financial cycle, influenced by seasonal factors [2][4]. Group 1: Credit and Financial Data Trends - Social financing (社融) continued to accelerate while credit remained weak, with new social financing reaching 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, and a slight rise in growth rate from 8.9% in June to 9.0% in July [4]. - New credit in July was -50 billion yuan, showing a significant change compared to June, reflecting seasonal loan issuance patterns and local debt replacement impacts [4][5]. - Despite weak credit data, loan interest rates remained stable, indicating a shift in financial institutions' operational philosophy towards prioritizing asset quality over merely increasing loan volume [5]. Group 2: Financial Investment and Deposits - The active financial investment environment contributed to a significant increase in non-bank deposits, which reached 2.14 trillion yuan in July, a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan [6]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is consistent with previous months, suggesting heightened financial investment activity in the private sector amid declining deposit rates [6]. Group 3: Monetary Supply and M1/M2 Trends - M2 growth rate reached 8.8% year-on-year in July, supported by accelerated fiscal spending, with a month-on-month annualized growth rate of 12.8% [6]. - M1 growth rate increased to 5.6% year-on-year in July, with a month-on-month annualized growth rate exceeding 6%, influenced by active financial investment and low base effects from previous months [7]. - The article anticipates that the year-on-year growth rate of monetary supply will likely continue to improve in the third quarter, with M2 potentially exceeding 9% and M1 around 6% [8].
7月金融数据点评:M1增速续升
Changjiang Securities· 2025-08-13 23:30
Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July, the total social financing (社融) stock growth rate rebounded to 9.0% year-on-year, while the credit growth rate under the social financing measure fell to 6.8%[3] - New social financing in July was 1.2 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4 trillion RMB, primarily supported by government bonds[7] - The new RMB loans in July were negative at -50 billion RMB, marking a historical low since data tracking began[7] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The growth rate of social financing may peak and decline, with government bonds providing some support, but a year-on-year decrease in government bonds is expected in Q4[3] - Future policies may prioritize the implementation of existing policies, with incremental policies being adjusted based on domestic and international conditions[3] - There remains a window for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions within the year, alongside an emphasis on accelerating the issuance of existing government bonds in Q3[7] Group 3: Credit and Deposit Trends - The credit demand has shown a temporary decline due to the "anti-involution" measures, which have squeezed out inflated loans and led to a reduction in credit demand[7] - M1 and M2 growth rates improved, with M1 rising to 5.6% and M2 to 8.8% year-on-year, driven by increased non-bank deposits[7] - In July, the total new loans for households and enterprises were both negative when excluding bill financing, indicating a weak credit environment[7]
固定收益策略报告:税负调整会打断债市修复吗?-20250803
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-03 14:06
围绕事件博弈的一周。 尽管多重事件交织,本周债券市场情绪在波动中仍实现了修复。一方面,在权益和商品价格回调、政治局会议未落地 超预期政策的背景下,风险偏好回落;另一方面,政策不确定性暂时过去之后,市场关注重心回归到对基本面和资金 面的判断。 周五突发的税收调整是否打断这种情绪修复? 周五财政部、税务总局公告称对新发行的国债、地方债、金融债的利息收入,恢复征收增值税。对于本次国债等债券 票息恢复征收增值税的政策调整,我们认为,其影响更多体现为一次性和结构性的价格重估,而不构成趋势性的方向 改变。若还有央行配合对冲操作,尤其是提供流动性支持或开展公开市场买债操作,市场对税负上升的响应过程有望 更加平稳。具体看来,这个事件有四个相对确定和三个不确定性比较大的影响: 四个相对确定的影响:(1)静态测算下新老券利差扩大幅度或落在 6–11bp 之间。(2)本轮未纳入征税范围或此前已 征税的品种相对受益。(3)资管类产品相对优势进一步强化。(4)对银行而言,信贷资产相对吸引力上升。 三个不确定性影响:(1)新老债利差走阔以何种方式"分配"。(2)央行是否对冲及对冲程度。(3)是否意味着开启新 一轮税收制度调整周期仍待观察 ...
利率 - 需要担心赎回压力吗?
2025-07-29 02:10
Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes primarily discuss the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, focusing on interest rates, government financing, and corporate profitability [1][3][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Conditions**: June economic data shows significant divergence in supply and demand, with household income growth lagging behind GDP growth. External demand for exports to the U.S. has sharply declined, indicating persistent insufficient total demand [1][3]. 2. **Government Financing**: It is projected that government financing will decrease by over 2 trillion yuan in the second half of 2025, following a peak in social financing growth in July. This decline in financing is expected to contribute to lower interest rates [1][4]. 3. **Corporate Profitability**: Corporate profit margins are under pressure due to declining total demand and trade tensions, resulting in low investment returns. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, alleviating concerns about policy tightening [1][5]. 4. **Interest Rate Projections**: The current central level for the 10-year government bond yield is 1.5%, with the current yield at 1.7%. Short-term projections suggest that rates may decline further, potentially falling below 1.5% [1][7]. 5. **Liquidity Management**: The central bank's operations indicate a stable interest rate level around 1.8% during tight liquidity periods. The reasonable range for current operations is estimated between 1.4% and 1.7% [1][8]. 6. **Asset-Liability Matching**: Banks are achieving a yield of approximately 1.5% on mortgages, while the yields on 10-year and ultra-long government bonds are 1.7% and 1.9%, respectively. Insurance companies are also adjusting their guaranteed rates below 2%, making long-term bonds attractive [1][9]. 7. **Redemption Pressure**: Current redemption pressure is primarily preventive and not indicative of a trend, similar to the situation in August 2024. The market is not expected to experience significant volatility due to this preventive redemption [2][10]. 8. **Market Outlook**: The third quarter is expected to see increased volatility in funding rates, but the overall range will remain between OMO reductions of 20 basis points and increases of 20 basis points, indicating a more accommodative environment compared to the second quarter [2][11]. Additional Important Content - The notes emphasize the lack of significant counter-cyclical demand policies to address the ongoing economic challenges, which could further impact total demand and interest rates [1][3]. - The analysis suggests that the bond market is not at risk of a trend reversal to bearish conditions, as the fundamental factors driving interest rates downward remain unchanged [3].
货币政策稳增长措施仍需加码
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-07-17 22:11
Monetary Policy Overview - In the first half of the year, China's monetary policy can be divided into two phases, with a cautious approach in Q1 due to exchange rate depreciation pressures and strong market expectations [1] - In April, the focus shifted to "stabilizing growth" as the primary goal of monetary policy, leading to a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates in May [1][2] - The expectation for the second half of the year is that monetary policy will continue to emphasize "stabilizing growth," with potential for further easing measures [1][2] Economic Indicators - The growth rate of social financing increased to 8.9% year-on-year, supported by government bond financing, but may face challenges in the second half due to a potential slowdown in new government debt issuance [3] - The total scale of government bonds for the year is projected at 13.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.9 billion yuan compared to 2024 [3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The overall trend for the US dollar is expected to remain weak, influenced by concerns over US economic recession and the long-term trend of de-dollarization in global markets [3][4] - A weaker dollar is anticipated to provide effective support for the Chinese yuan, with expectations of a slight appreciation to around 7 to 7.1 [4]
2025年6月金融数据点评:年内社融增速或逐渐筑顶,债市已有赔率
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-15 11:15
Group 1: Report Overview - Research Report Title: "Year-end Social Financing Growth Rate May Gradually Peak, Bond Market Shows Odds - Commentary on June 2025 Financial Data" [1][4] - Release Date: July 15, 2025 [7] Group 2: Core Views - In June 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of outstanding social financing was +8.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points. Credit growth was strong at the end of the quarter, and government bonds continued to provide support. The year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 were 4.6% and 8.3% respectively, both showing month-on-month increases [2][4]. - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, as banks focus on project reserves in the fourth quarter and the issuance of government bonds in the first half is almost complete, the growth rate of outstanding social financing may gradually peak. It is estimated that the annual social financing growth rate will reach a high of around 9.0% in July - August and then gradually decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year [8]. - With the central bank's relatively loose policy stance and the social financing growth rate peaking, the bond market lacks a basis for a deep correction. After the recent adjustment, the bond market has shown odds, and it is recommended to actively allocate when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 1.65% [8]. Group 3: Credit Analysis - In June 2025, new credit was approximately 2.24 trillion yuan, higher than 2.13 trillion yuan in the same period last year. Banks increased credit投放 at the end of the semi - annual period, and the ban on "manual interest supplementation" in the first half of 2024 led to a relatively low base for corporate loans [8]. - Corporate loans: In June, corporate loans increased by about 1.77 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.14 trillion yuan. Short - term corporate loans and medium - to - long - term corporate loans increased by 1.16 trillion yuan and 1.01 trillion yuan respectively year - on - year, while bill financing decreased by about 0.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year reduction of about 0.37 trillion yuan [8]. - Household loans: In June, household loans increased by about 0.60 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 267 billion yuan. Short - term and medium - to - long - term household loans both showed slight year - on - year increases, driven by the "618" e - commerce promotion and the summer vacation [8]. Group 4: Social Financing Analysis - In June 2025, the increment of social financing was about 4.20 trillion yuan, mainly supported by on - balance - sheet financing and government bonds. On - balance - sheet financing increased by about 2.39 trillion yuan, and government bonds increased by about 1.35 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.50 trillion yuan [8]. - In July, as it is a season - starting month with characteristics of a "small credit month" and there may be short - term loan maturity pressure, but government bonds are expected to continue to support social financing growth [8]. Group 5: Monetary Analysis - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 both increased month - on - month. Resident and corporate deposits increased by about 2.47 trillion yuan and 1.78 trillion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of about 0.33 trillion yuan and 0.78 trillion yuan [8]. - The growth of resident and corporate deposits at the end of the quarter was due to the low base of corporate deposits last year and seasonal factors. Fiscal expenditures at the end of the quarter transferred fiscal deposits to resident and corporate deposits, and the return of wealth management products to the balance sheet also supported deposit data [8].
固定收益点评:下半年社融增速或承压
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-07-15 06:57
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing may face pressure in the second half of the year. If there is no additional budget, government bonds will shift from year - on - year increase in the first half to year - on - year decrease in the second half, and non - government bond social financing has been weak due to high real interest rates [2][3][20]. - The low - base effect supports the continued significant rebound of M1 growth rate, and the rebound of social financing growth rate drives the rebound of M2 growth rate. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in fiscal deposits [3][4]. - The current stock market rise requires a low - interest - rate environment, and the impact on the bond market from capital flow is limited. The bond market has limited adjustment space, and it is a better allocation opportunity after adjustment. It is expected that bond yields will decline again, and a long - duration position and a dumbbell - shaped allocation are recommended [5][21]. Summary by Related Content Credit Situation - In June, new credit was 2.24 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 110 billion yuan. Corporate short - term credit demand increased, while the improvement of household credit demand was still limited. Corporate medium - and long - term loans and short - term loans increased year - on - year, and bill financing decreased year - on - year. Household medium - and long - term and short - term loans also increased year - on - year, but high - frequency data showed weak real - estate sales [1][8]. Social Financing Situation - In June, new social financing was 4.1993 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9008 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month. Government bonds were still the main support item. However, if there is no additional budget, subsequent bond supply will decrease year - on - year, and social financing growth rate may decline [2][13]. - In the first half of this year, the increase in social financing mainly came from government bonds. The annual budget increment of government bonds is 13.86 trillion yuan. After deducting the issued part in the first half, the net financing scale in the second half is expected to be about 6.1 trillion yuan, compared with about 8 trillion yuan in the same period last year [3][20]. M1 and M2 Situation - In June, the new - caliber M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, a rebound of 2.3 percentage points from May, mainly due to the low - base effect last year [3][15]. - In June, M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, a rebound of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The increase in social financing growth rate promoted the rebound of M2 growth rate. With the slowdown of government bond issuance in the second half, fiscal deposits may decrease year - on - year, increasing the capital supply in the market [4][18]. Stock and Bond Market Situation - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly driven by valuation recovery and requires a low - interest - rate environment. The impact of the stock market on the bond market's capital is limited. The bond market has limited adjustment space, and it is expected that bond yields will decline again. A long - duration position and a dumbbell - shaped allocation are recommended, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield expected to fall to 1.4% - 1.5% [5][21].