炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 在股票市场进入四季度之际，多家公募发布2025年四季度策略，看好赚钱效应持续演绎。 基于居民存款搬家以及海外增量资金的持续涌入，基金经理对四季度A股和港股市场行情给予乐观判 断，预期市场延续震荡抬升格局，行情有望在政策呵护中逐级上移。A股和港股的科技股、新消费、互 联网、创新药等四大方向是布局的核心。 公募判断后市增量资金涌入 政策呵护与增量资金，已成为基金持续做多的信心基础。 鹏华基金表示，随着大盘指数突破十年新高，当前A股整体定价回归到合理状态。结构上看，股债再平 衡是推动近期ERP修复的主因，而市场对于成长定价依旧维持极度乐观。活跃资金加仓、机构由债入股 是近期主要的增量，存款搬家还在起步阶段，但后市具备较大潜力。 "对比历史，科技行情整体还未到过热阶段，科技行情有产业基本面变化的支撑。"鹏华基金强调，四季 度需关注科技板块内部局部拥挤度过高的问题，从平衡组合收益与波动的角度，在交易层面可以关注涨 幅相对滞后且基本面有积极变化的方向。 平安基金认为，今年增量资金供给有所提速，年初以来，资金供需波动有所加大，年初两融配合ETF共 同 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-09-23 金融市场重磅发声，科技行情有望延续 市场分析 高层重磅发声。国内方面，国新办举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会。央行行长潘功胜介绍，截 至今年6月末，我国银行业总资产近470万亿元，位居世界第一；股票、债券市场规模位居世界第二；外汇储备规 模连续20年位居世界第一。金融监管总局局长李云泽介绍，目前银行业保险业总资产超过500万亿元，5年来年均 增长9%；信托、理财、保险资管机构管理资产近100万亿元；"白名单"项目贷款超过7万亿元，支持近2000万套住 房建设交付。证监会主席吴清介绍，资本市场含"科"量进一步提升，目前A股科技板块市值占比超过1/4；截至8月 底，各类中长期资金合计持有A股流通市值约21.4万亿元，较"十三五"末增长32%，外资持有A股市值3.4万亿元。 外汇局局长朱鹤新介绍，7月末境外机构和个人持有境内股票、债券、存贷款超10万亿元。海外方面，圣路易斯联 储主席穆萨莱姆强调，目前利率水平已处于"略微紧缩与中性之间"，未来进一步降息的空间有限。 指数收红。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收红，沪指涨0.22%收于3828.58点，创业板指涨0. ...

游戏，下一个创新药 市场突破后，该行对于指数的长期趋势仍维持乐观判断:(1)坚定牛市思维，证券化率视角下，当前估值 仍有上行空间，持续看好。(2)市场结构呈现【双轮驱动】，一是全球科技共舞下的成长品类提供强劲 的弹性，二是"反内卷"牵头下周期与顺周期交易PPI修复的扩散行情。(3)不应该在积极的市场中做"惊弓 之鸟"，应"坚守自我，科技为先"。(4)风格上，看好成长板块，在市场风险偏好高位，成长更易跑出超 额。(5)如果有投资者相对畏高，对于想寻找除了前期涨幅累积较多的光模块、PCB、创新药、科创芯 片、液冷以外的低位品种进行高低切，该行认为当前应该重点关注游戏、传媒、互联网、华为产业链 (消费电子)、电池等品种。 科技行情下，硬件先行、软件跟上;游戏是软件领域的高弹性品类 科技行情下，硬件和软件应用是两个永恒的主题。在科技产业周期中，硬件与软件始终呈现"硬件先 行、软件跟上"的客观规律。复盘1990s美国互联网革命、2010s中国移动互联网时代，均存在硬件公司 先拔估值，软件应用公司后跟上的现象。 游戏作为软件领域的高弹性品类，其高弹性源于商业模式。游戏的商业模式，前期依靠项目投入和积 累，后期迎来产品上市 ...

Core Conclusion - The current technology market is experiencing a fourth wave, which has reached a point of crowding risk, and after a period of consolidation, a fifth wave is anticipated [2][3]. Historical Comparison - The technology index has risen nearly 60% over approximately 100 trading days since the adjustment in April 2025, which is comparable to previous growth phases [4]. - Historical data shows that previous growth phases in the technology sector typically lasted around 70 trading days with similar average gains of about 60% [4]. - Adjustments before the initiation of the next wave typically take 30-40 trading days, with pullbacks ranging from 15% to 30% [4]. Market Sentiment and Trading Activity - As of the end of August, the technology sector accounted for 40.7% of total trading volume, surpassing the previous high of 38.5% in October 2024 [8]. - The average turnover rate for TMT stocks in August was 6.3%, close to the levels seen in early 2019 and 2020 [8]. - The financing balance for the technology sector reached 28.1% by the end of August, exceeding the previous high of 27.9% at the beginning of the year [8]. Future Outlook - The current AI market has seen significant growth since the low point on April 9, with sector gains ranging from 50% to 100% [11]. - There is an expectation for a consolidation phase before the emergence of the fifth wave, with a focus on technology applications such as smart driving, fintech, and robotics [11].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Resident Capital Activity Indicator - **Model Construction Idea**: The indicator is designed to track resident capital flows at a high frequency, combining data from three perspectives: ETFs dominated by individual investors, trading activity at specific brokerage branches, and Baidu search indices[1][11][23] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **ETF Perspective**: - Identify A-share equity ETFs with individual ownership ≥70% based on semi-annual and annual reports (data updated in March and August each year) - Calculate daily ETF fund flows using the formula: $ \text{Daily Fund Flow} = \text{Daily Change in ETF Shares} \times \text{VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)} $ - Aggregate the fund flows of all selected ETFs to derive the indicator for individual investor-dominated ETFs[12] 2. **Brokerage Branch Perspective**: - Use trading data from specific branches of Orient Securities in Lhasa, which are predominantly used by retail investors - Calculate the daily trading volume of these branches as a percentage of the total trading volume of the Wind All-A Index to represent resident activity[13][17] 3. **Baidu Index Perspective**: - Select three keywords: "stock account opening," "bull market," and "bottom fishing" - Use their rolling 1-month moving averages to measure resident sentiment in different market scenarios[21] 4. **Comprehensive Indicator Construction**: - Smooth all three sub-indicators using a 1-month moving average - Calculate the rolling 6-month percentile rank for each sub-indicator - Combine the percentile ranks of the three Baidu keywords equally to form the Baidu sub-indicator - Combine the ETF, brokerage, and Baidu sub-indicators equally to form the final Resident Capital Activity Indicator, with values ranging from 0 to 1[23] - **Model Evaluation**: The indicator aligns well with monthly A-share account opening data, demonstrating its effectiveness as a high-frequency proxy for resident capital flows. It also exhibits timing capabilities, similar to the "fear-greed index," by signaling potential short-term market risks when resident sentiment overheats[27][28] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Resident Capital Activity Indicator - **Wind All-A Index Return**: 75% (from February 2019 to August 2025) - **Timing Strategy Return**: 167% (based on the rule: stay fully invested unless the indicator exceeds 70% in the past 10 days, in which case switch to cash)[28]

Summary of the Conference Call for Runze Technology Industry Overview - **Technology Sector Valuation Recovery**: After a decade of adjustment, technology stock valuations have become reasonable, with significant comparative advantages over traditional industries, driving market consensus on the tech sector's performance [2][3]. - **Domestic Computing Power Demand**: China's large model training capabilities lag behind the U.S. by approximately one to one and a half generations, necessitating at least a tenfold increase in computing power to catch up. The vast population and industrial scale in China provide a leading market space for inference industries [2][4]. Company Insights - **Runze Technology's Industry Position**: As a leading AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) enterprise, Runze Technology possesses significant advantages in key metrics such as customer base, location, and network nodes, playing a crucial role in AI initiatives [2][6]. - **Business Growth Stability**: The demand in the AI industry chain is robust, leading to increased data center hosting equipment needs. Runze Technology has achieved stable growth through long-term service provision, akin to a snowball effect [2][9]. - **2025 H1 Performance**: The company reported revenue of 2.496 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.36%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 882 million yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter growth of 5.06% [2][15]. Financial Performance - **Revenue and Profitability**: In the first half of 2025, Runze Technology achieved a revenue of 2.496 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.31 billion yuan. Operating costs rose by 3.34 billion yuan to 1.263 billion yuan, primarily due to initial costs associated with new data center deliveries [15][16]. - **Asset Growth and Inventory Decline**: Fixed assets surged to 20.2 billion yuan, driven by data center infrastructure construction and expanded self-owned computing power. Inventory decreased from 1.77 billion yuan to 293 million yuan, partly due to high-performance servers being converted for internal use [17]. Technological Advancements - **Liquid Cooling Technology**: Runze Technology has made significant strides in liquid cooling technology, successfully delivering its first fully liquid-cooled data center and expanding the deployment of liquid-cooled cabinets [4][13]. - **AIDC Business Transformation**: The AIDC business has transitioned from one-time inflow to stable, profitable self-computing services, now accounting for over 85% of the business, indicating significant improvements in profitability and stability [4][14]. Market Dynamics - **Supply and Demand in AI DC Business**: The supply-demand relationship in the AI data center business is influenced by energy consumption restrictions in first-tier cities, leading to a market shift towards regions like Ulanqab and Zhongwei [26]. - **Future Expansion Plans**: Runze Technology plans to expand based on customer demand, with new data centers being established in regions such as Hainan, Chongqing, and Gansu [28]. Strategic Outlook - **Acquisition Strategy**: Runze Technology has disclosed its acquisition strategy for the first time in its 2025 annual report, indicating readiness in technology, talent, and financial resources for potential acquisitions [31]. - **Server Leasing Business**: The company is cautious about expanding its server leasing business, prioritizing stability and assessing market opportunities before making significant commitments [32][33]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, industry dynamics, and strategic outlook.

Market Overview - A-shares major indices all closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising nearly 1% and returning to 3600 points [1] - The Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) saw an increase of 0.32% in its market price, with a total trading volume of 23.22 million yuan, a 27% increase compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - Photovoltaic equipment led the gains, with major stocks such as Daqo New Energy rising over 3%, Sungrow Power Supply increasing by more than 2%, Trina Solar up nearly 2%, and JinkoSolar gaining over 1% [3] - Other notable performers included Sanhua Group rising over 3%, and companies like Bichu Electronics and Lens Technology increasing by more than 2% [3] Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy has gained momentum, with significant signals released from top-level meetings focusing on the photovoltaic industry [4] - Policies such as "not selling below cost" have led to a shift in pricing strategies within the industry, with prices for N-type raw materials and granular silicon rising by 36% and 31.3% respectively since late June [4] Future Outlook - Analysts expect a recovery in the photovoltaic industry, with a return to normalized competition and potential structural reforms [4] - The technology sector is anticipated to accelerate, with a focus on areas benefiting from policy support and emerging trends in AI and new industries [4] Investment Opportunities - The Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) features three main characteristics: cross-market diversification, a focus on strategic emerging industries, and a low entry threshold for investors [5] - The ETF is designed to capture the growth of top technology companies in China, providing a more efficient investment vehicle compared to direct stock investments [5]

Group 1 - The technology sector exhibited an N-shaped trend in the first half of 2025, with a rapid rise during the Spring Festival driven by DeepSeek, followed by a market correction at the end of February [1] - By mid-April, market sentiment began to recover slowly, although the technology sector was not the main focus, with innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption sectors performing well [1] - Since June, significant changes occurred in the technology sector as overseas tech companies reached new stock price highs, leading to upward revisions in capital expenditures by cloud vendors and better-than-expected performance from overseas computing chains [1] Group 2 - Analysts expect the technology market to accelerate in the second half of the year, with clearer performance guidance for overseas computing chains, alleviating investor concerns about valuations [1] - Domestic technology trends indicate that large models are catching up with global advancements, and the computing bottleneck is expected to be resolved, accelerating AI ecosystem development among leading tech companies [1] - Upcoming releases of models like GPT-5 and DeepSeek R2 in August are anticipated to catalyze market activity, particularly with a focus on multimodal capabilities [1] Group 3 - On August 4, the Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) showed fluctuations near the water surface, with notable stock performances including Transsion Holdings rising over 5% and several other companies like Stone Technology and Haiguang Information increasing by over 2% [1][3] - The ETF focuses on high-growth companies in strategic emerging industries, including new energy, semiconductors, and medical devices, reflecting the importance of self-reliance in technology amid global competition [4] - The ETF offers a lower investment threshold compared to direct investments in individual stocks, allowing investors to start with less than 100 yuan [4]

Market Overview - The market showed an overall upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a five-day winning streak and increased trading volume [1] - The coal sector experienced a sudden surge, with stocks like Shanxi Coking Coal and Shanmei International hitting the daily limit, driven by a notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production inspections [1][4] - Other sectors such as hydropower, civil explosives, engineering machinery, cement, and steel also saw significant gains, with leading companies like China Power Construction and China Energy Construction achieving consecutive gains [1] Stock Performance - A total of 2,540 stocks rose while 2,724 declined, with 114 stocks hitting the daily limit and 11 stocks hitting the lower limit [2] - High-profile stock Weiqi New Materials achieved a record of 10 consecutive daily limits, with a cumulative increase of over 519% [1] Fund Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in coal mining, liquor, battery, photovoltaic equipment, and energy metals sectors [3] - Conversely, there were capital outflows from IT services, automotive parts, software development, general equipment, and diversified finance sectors [3] Policy and Regulatory Updates - The National Energy Administration announced a crackdown on coal mines exceeding production capacity to stabilize coal supply and market order [4] - Shenzhen is expected to see reforms that will allow companies listed in Hong Kong to return to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [5] Market Outlook - China Galaxy expressed optimism about the market, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index is likely to maintain above 3,500 points, suggesting a potential upward trend [2][7] - Long-term expectations for the coal sector remain positive, with anticipated strong coal prices and a peak demand season approaching [8] - Huazhong Securities forecasted that the technology sector will continue to perform strongly, supported by macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the economy [9]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic data indicates that the economy will face pressure in the second half of the year, but policies are expected to further support the economy, particularly through the implementation of anti-involution policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and stimulating domestic consumption [2][3] - The second quarter GDP growth rate was 5.2%, reflecting economic resilience, but the marginal performance of various macroeconomic indicators weakened, indicating a need for policy support in consumption and real estate [3][15] - The central political bureau meeting at the end of July is expected to maintain a warm policy tone, focusing on anti-involution competition, stabilizing real estate, and stimulating consumption as key areas for policy efforts [3][15] Group 2 - The anti-involution policies are accelerating, with significant implications for industry competitiveness and profit distribution within the supply chain, necessitating close monitoring of policy expansion into various sectors [3][13] - The banking sector is expected to enter a period of volatility, with the anti-involution policies catalyzing upgrades and the technology sector likely to maintain its strong performance [5][26] - The recent decline in bank dividend yields is attributed to a significant decrease in cumulative dividend amounts over the past 12 months, but this pressure is expected to be largely absorbed, with a potential for a new high-dividend support trend if banks increase their dividend plans [6][26] Group 3 - The technology sector is showing signs of a potential peak, with five warning signs typically indicating a top, including valuation percentiles and maximum price increases, but current conditions suggest that the growth technology market may not have ended yet [5][26][48] - The performance of the TMT sector has shown significant divergence recently, with communication and electronics sectors performing well, while media has seen declines [5][27] - The analysis of previous AI-driven market cycles indicates that the current growth technology market may still have room to run, as not all warning signs are fully met [48][49]