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华菱钢铁(000932) - 2025年8月25日投资者关系活动记录表(二)
2025-08-26 06:50
证券代码:000932 证券简称:华菱钢铁 湖南华菱钢铁股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号:2025-14 | | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活 | □媒体采访 业绩说明会 | | | 动类别 | □新闻发布会 路演活动 | | | | 现场参观 电话会议 | | | | □其他(请文字说明其他活动内容) | | | 参与单位名称 | 易方达基金何进阳、涂程亮、胡致远、刘凯捷 | | | 及人员姓名 | | | | 时间 | 年 日 2025 8 25 | 月 | | 地点 | 湖南长沙湘府西路 号华菱主楼 会议室 222 601 | | | 接待人员姓名 | 刘笑非、王音 | | | | 1、公司销量下降是减产的要求还是主动减产?下半年的产销量指 | | | | 引? | | | | 回复:随着政策严控粗钢产能、实施产量调控与钢企自律性减产一 | | | | 同发力,钢铁行业供给端或将持续收缩。今年上半年,公司完成钢材销 | | | | 量 1,110 万吨,同比下降 12.6%;若考虑钢材销量中未包含公司在国内直 | | | | ...
瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20250730
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 11:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 30, the silicon ferro - alloy 2509 contract closed at 6008, up 0.77%. The spot price of Ningxia silicon ferro - alloy was reported at 5830, up 80 yuan/ton. With low - level operation of production, falling cost of Ningxia semi - coke, and generally weak steel demand expectations, the ferro - alloy production profit is currently negative. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating operation [2]. - On July 30, the manganese silicon 2509 contract closed at 6116, down 0.42%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon manganese was reported at 5900. Manganese - based leading enterprises held a seminar to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in the industry, and supply may decline. Fundamentally, the manufacturers' start - up rate has rebounded for 8 consecutive weeks at a low level, inventory is moderately high, and downstream hot metal production is at a high level. Market - wise, this month's steel mill procurement prices have rebounded compared to the tender prices. Technically, the 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, and it should be treated as an oscillating and slightly stronger operation [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为6,116.00元/吨,环比下降96.00元;SF主力合约收盘价为6,008.00元/吨,环比下降102.00元 [2]. - SM期货合约持仓量为651,212.00手,环比下降4189.00手;SF期货合约持仓量为438,378.00手,环比增加6020.00手 [2]. - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 120,404.00手,环比下降3885.00手;硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 47,806.00手,环比下降6249.00手 [2]. - SM1 - 9月合约价差为92.00元/吨,环比增加18.00元;SF1 - 9月合约价差为132.00元/吨,环比增加26.00元 [2]. - SM仓单为78,736.00张,环比下降454.00张;SF仓单为22,003.00张,环比下降6.00张 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - 内蒙古锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,900.00元/吨,持平;内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,870.00元/吨,环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5950.00元/吨,环比上涨50.00元;青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,710.00元/吨,环比上涨150.00元 [2]. - 云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5,950.00元/吨,环比上涨50.00元;宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5,830.00元/吨,环比上涨80.00元 [2]. - 锰硅指数均值为5688.00元/吨,环比上涨78.00元;SF主力合约基差为 - 178.00元/吨,环比上涨182.00元 [2]. - SM主力合约基差为 - 216.00元/吨,环比上涨96.00元 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - 南非矿:Mn38块:天津港价格为37.00元/吨度,持平;硅石(98%西北)价格为210.00元/吨,持平 [2]. - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1050.00元/吨,环比上涨50.00元;兰炭(中料神木)价格为620.00元/吨,持平 [2]. - 锰矿港口库存为449.50万吨,环比增加21.00万吨 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为41.58%,环比上涨1.05个百分点;硅铁企业开工率为33.33%,环比上涨0.88个百分点 [2]. - 锰硅供应为186,480.00吨,环比增加3640.00吨;硅铁供应为102,300.00吨,环比增加2300.00吨 [2]. - 锰硅厂家库存为205,000.00吨,环比下降11300.00吨;硅铁厂家库存为6.21万吨,环比下降0.14万吨 [2]. - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为14.24天,环比下降1.25天;硅铁全国钢厂库存为14.25天,环比下降1.13天 [2]. - 五大钢种锰硅需求为123670.00吨,环比增加289.00吨;五大钢种硅铁需求为20065.70吨,环比增加52.00吨 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.48%,持平;247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为90.78%,环比下降0.14个百分点 [2]. - 粗钢产量为8318.40万吨,环比下降336.10万吨 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - 当地时间7月28日至29日,中美经贸中方牵头人与美方牵头人在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行会谈,双方将推动已暂停的美方对等关税24%部分以及中方反制措施如期展期90天 [2]. - IMF将2025年中国经济增速大幅上调0.8个百分点至4.8% [2]. - 中国钢铁工业协会会长表示,2025年国家将继续实施粗钢产量调控政策,下半年相关调控措施将显现,钢铁供需矛盾将缓解 [2]. - 今年夏天全球多地极端高温带动我国空调出口增长,1 - 6月我国空调累计出口额达93.5亿美元,同比增长近10%;对欧盟国家空调出口量同比增长43.2%,出口金额达37.6亿美元,创同期历史新高 [2].
中钢协:7月国内钢材市场呈现小幅反弹运行态势
智通财经网· 2025-07-24 12:22
Core Viewpoint - The domestic steel market in China experienced a downward trend in June due to seasonal effects, supply-demand imbalances, and weakening cost support, but showed signs of slight recovery in July influenced by regulatory measures and production controls [1][2][10]. Price Index Summary - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) averaged 90.10 points in June, a decrease of 2.26 points (2.45%) month-on-month and a decline of 14.14 points (13.56%) year-on-year [2][7]. - The long product index averaged 91.91 points, down 2.41 points (2.55%) month-on-month, and the plate index averaged 88.32 points, down 2.28 points (2.51%) month-on-month [2][4]. - By the end of June, the CSPI stood at 89.51 points, marking a 1.29 point (1.42%) decrease from the previous month and a 13.45 point (13.06%) decline year-on-year [2][7]. Price Changes by Product - In June, the average prices of major steel products fell across the board, with cold-rolled sheets seeing the largest drop of 152 yuan/ton (3.88%) [8]. - The long product index was 91.27 points, down 1.03 points (1.12%) month-on-month, while the plate index was 87.76 points, down 1.43 points (1.60%) [4][8]. Regional Price Trends - In June, the CSPI showed a general downward trend across six major regions in China, with the largest decline in North China at 2.77% and the smallest in Southwest China at 1.72% [12][13]. Factors Influencing Price Changes - Fixed asset investment in China decreased, with infrastructure investment growing by 4.6% and manufacturing investment by 7.5%, both showing a decline in growth rates [15][16]. - The crude steel production in the first half of 2025 was 51.483 million tons, down 3.0% year-on-year, while steel consumption fell by 5.5% [17][18]. International Market Trends - The CRU international steel price index was 188.1 points in June, down 7.0 points (3.6%) month-on-month and 9.4 points (4.8%) year-on-year [20][23]. - The North American steel price index decreased by 4.0%, while the European index fell by 4.5% in June [27][30]. Future Outlook - The steel market is expected to face challenges due to a complex international environment and potential trade tensions, which may impact export strategies [36][38]. - The industry should focus on production adjustments in response to demand fluctuations and adhere to national crude steel production control policies [39][32].
新纪元期货:钢材全年有望演绎“N”形走势
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-15 00:31
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese steel market is expected to continue facing supply-demand imbalances, with prices likely to trend downward throughout 2025, despite some short-term technical rebounds [1][4][5] Supply Side: Policy-Driven Contraction and Global Divergence - From January to May 2025, China's crude steel production reached 43,171 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 441.4 million tons, or 1.01% [2] - The market anticipates a 1.5% year-on-year decline in crude steel production for the second half of the year, with total annual production expected to remain below 1 billion tons [2] - Global crude steel production shows structural divergence, with India's output increasing by 8.42% while Germany and Russia saw declines of 10.34% and 6.09%, respectively [2] Demand Side: Weak Real Estate Data, Slowing Infrastructure and Export Growth - From January to May 2025, China's apparent crude steel consumption was 37,842.45 million tons, down 1,585.91 million tons, or 4.02% year-on-year [3] - Real estate investment decreased by 10.7%, with new housing starts down 22.8%, negatively impacting demand for construction steel [3] - Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, and while steel exports increased by 8.2%, growth is expected to decelerate in the second half due to tariffs and anti-dumping investigations [3] Market Outlook: Continued Weakness in Supply and Demand - The steel market is projected to maintain a "dual decline" scenario, with supply constrained by crude steel reduction policies and demand showing only weak recovery [4] - The overall price trend for the year is likely to exhibit an "N" shape, with potential short-term rebounds in Q3 followed by challenges in Q4 due to seasonal demand drops and inventory pressures [5]
钢铁行业周报(20250623-20250627):淡季供需尚稳,钢价底部仍有支撑-20250629
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-29 14:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is currently experiencing stable supply and demand, but with weak market demand as temperatures rise. Although social inventory has slightly decreased, steel mill inventory has increased, leading to an overall rise in total inventory levels [3][4]. - Steel prices are under pressure but have shown some signs of rebound due to raw material price increases and good sales of low-priced steel resources. The report suggests that steel prices may continue to operate weakly during the off-season but still have some support at low levels due to low inventory and stable raw material prices [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 27, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,181 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,514 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,205 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,607 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,371 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of -0.63%, -0.71%, -0.17%, -0.19%, and -0.78% respectively [2][15]. - The total production of the five major products reached 8.81 million tons, an increase of 124,800 tons week-on-week [2]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The average daily molten iron production from 247 steel enterprises is 2.42 million tons, with a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 90.83% [2][4]. (b) Consumption Volume of Five Major Products - The total consumption of the five major products is 8.80 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 43,300 tons [2]. (c) Inventory Situation - Total steel inventory is 13.40 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 11,400 tons. Social inventory decreased by 66,000 tons to 9.07 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 77,400 tons to 4.34 million tons [2][4]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,270 CNY/ton, a decrease of 23 CNY/ton week-on-week. The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar is 145 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil is 108 CNY/ton, and cold-rolled coil is -36 CNY/ton [2][4]. 3. Industry Policy - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [4][5].
黑色金属专场 - 年度中期策略会
2025-06-26 15:51
Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Steel and Related Markets Key Points on Steel Market - Rebar prices have fallen to around 3,000 CNY/ton, alleviating some market pessimism, but increasing divergence between bulls and bears [1] - Since early June, futures have stabilized with a slowing downward slope; steel mills remain profitable due to a significant drop in carbon element costs [1][4] - High temperatures and heavy rainfall have negatively impacted demand, leading to a month-on-month decline in rebar demand, with year-on-year figures continuing to drop [1][4] - The hot-rolled market remains resilient, with downstream manufacturing maintaining high demand levels, although overall manufacturing sentiment is declining [5][6] Real Estate Impact - Real estate investment has decreased significantly, with new construction area down 20% and sales area remaining negative; this has severely impacted market confidence [7] - The expectation is that real estate policies will focus on stability in the second half of 2025, but internal momentum remains weak, and hidden inventory is high [8][9] Infrastructure Investment - Domestic policy support has increased, leading to some improvement in infrastructure investment, but traditional projects are nearing saturation and yield insufficient returns [10][11] - Excluding power-related projects, infrastructure improvement remains limited, with marginal declines noted in May data [11] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing sentiment has gradually declined since the beginning of the year, with May PMI at 49.5, indicating contraction [12] - Manufacturing investment growth remains high at 8.5% year-to-date, but is expected to slow due to low PPI and poor industrial profits [13][14] Steel Exports - From January to May, China exported nearly 50 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with expectations for high export levels to continue despite domestic demand weakness [15][19] - The international trade environment is expected to be affected by policy fluctuations and trade friction risks, particularly with the U.S. [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic steel demand is overall weak, with expectations for continued high export levels; the market remains in a loose supply-demand state [17] - The iron ore supply is expected to be significantly relaxed in the second half of the year, with major mining companies increasing output [20][21] Coal and Coke Markets - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops, with recent rebounds being limited; global economic recession fears are impacting industrial valuations [29] - The coke market is expected to face pressure in the second half of the year due to reduced iron water production and insufficient market support [32] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is expected to experience slight negative growth in 2025, with supply expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year [20][28] - Domestic iron ore production is under pressure, with imports declining significantly due to various factors including weather and trade policies [23][36] Strategic Recommendations - The recommendation is to adopt a strategy of selling on rallies or rebounds, rather than chasing short positions [18] - Monitoring the developments in U.S.-China trade relations and domestic demand stimulus policies is crucial for future market direction [17] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the steel and related markets is cautious, with significant challenges posed by weak domestic demand, real estate sector struggles, and external trade pressures. The focus remains on monitoring policy changes and market dynamics to identify potential investment opportunities and risks.
钢铁行业周报(20250609-20250613):季节性淡季特征显现,钢价底部仍有支撑-20250615
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-15 13:46
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices with some support [1][2] - The demand has weakened due to seasonal factors, and steel prices are expected to remain under pressure in the short term [2] - The overall valuation of the steel sector is low, with potential for profit recovery and valuation improvement if structural industry issues are resolved [10] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 13, 2025, the prices for five major steel products are as follows: rebar at 3,208 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,544 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,198 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,623 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,421 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of -0.33%, -0.40%, -0.80%, -0.64%, and -0.87% respectively [1] - The total output of the five major products is 8.5885 million tons, a decrease of 215,300 tons week-on-week [1] - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.4161 million tons, with a slight decrease of 1,900 tons week-on-week [1] 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.58%, down 0.07 percentage points week-on-week [1] - The electric arc furnace capacity utilization rate is 56.73%, down 1.97 percentage points week-on-week [1] (b) Consumption Volume of Major Steel Products - The total consumption of the five major products is 8.681 million tons, a decrease of 140,700 tons week-on-week [1] - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate has decreased by 90,600 tons, 19,500 tons, 10,400 tons, 2,700 tons, and 17,500 tons respectively [1] (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.5456 million tons, a decrease of 92,500 tons week-on-week [1] - Social inventory decreased by 35,300 tons to 9.2748 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 57,200 tons to 4.2708 million tons [1] (d) Profitability Situation - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,321 CNY/ton, down 41 CNY/ton week-on-week [1] - The gross profit per ton for high furnace rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +135 CNY/ton, +60 CNY/ton, and -65 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +36 CNY/ton, +27 CNY/ton, and -3 CNY/ton [1] - 58.44% of sampled steel enterprises are profitable, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points week-on-week [1]
钢铁行业周报(20250602-20250606):供给持续回落,关注淡季需求韧性-20250608
Huachuang Securities· 2025-06-08 12:18
Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the steel industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a dual weakness in supply and demand, leading to a bottoming out of steel prices [2][3]. - The current demand situation suggests that inventory may soon reach a turning point, despite the ongoing weak demand [2]. - The industry is expected to maintain a bottoming and fluctuating price trend in the short term due to increased maintenance in steel mills, which may lead to supply contraction [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - As of June 6, the prices for five major steel products are reported as follows: rebar at 3,218 CNY/ton, wire rod at 3,558 CNY/ton, hot-rolled coil at 3,224 CNY/ton, cold-rolled coil at 3,646 CNY/ton, and medium plate at 3,451 CNY/ton, with weekly changes of +0.05%, +0.08%, +0.10%, -0.12%, and -0.64% respectively [1][15]. - The total production of the five major products is 8.8038 million tons, a decrease of 0.47 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The average daily molten iron output from 247 steel enterprises is 2.418 million tons, down 0.11 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. 2. Key Industry Data Tracking (a) Production Data - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces is 90.65%, down 0.04 percentage points week-on-week [1]. - The operating rate for electric arc furnaces is 76.69%, down 1.09 percentage points week-on-week [1]. (b) Consumption Data - The total consumption of the five major steel products is 8.8217 million tons, a decrease of 316.2 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - The apparent consumption of rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and medium plate shows week-on-week changes of -196.5 thousand tons, -2.6 thousand tons, -60.1 thousand tons, +13.8 thousand tons, and -70.9 thousand tons respectively [1]. (c) Inventory Situation - The total steel inventory is 13.6381 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 thousand tons week-on-week [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 15.3 thousand tons to 9.3101 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 2.6 thousand tons to 4.3280 million tons [1]. (d) Profitability - The average cost of molten iron for 114 steel mills is 2,362 CNY/ton, down 37 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. - The gross profit per ton for rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil is +99 CNY/ton, +33 CNY/ton, and -62 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +9 CNY/ton, 0 CNY/ton, and +62 CNY/ton [1]. 3. Industry Policy and Outlook - The report highlights ongoing government efforts to optimize industrial layout and promote the exit of inefficient production capacity while increasing high-end capacity supply [3][4]. - The steel industry is expected to continue its profit recovery, with potential for greater elasticity in profits if supply-side adjustments are effectively implemented [9][10].
钢铁周报20250525:铁水逐步下行,钢材利润小幅回暖
Minsheng Securities· 2025-05-25 07:45
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that pig iron prices are gradually declining, leading to a slight recovery in steel profits. The raw material costs are expected to ease further, which may enhance the profitability of steel companies [5]. - Economic data from January to April shows a continued weakness in the real estate sector, while automotive production maintains year-on-year growth. The potential for crude steel production regulation is increasing amid uncertain external demand and weak domestic recovery [5]. Price Trends - As of May 23, steel prices have decreased, with Shanghai's 20mm HRB400 rebar priced at 3160 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other steel products also saw price declines [3][11]. - The report details specific price changes for various steel products, indicating a general downward trend in prices over the past week [12]. Production and Inventory - As of May 23, the production of five major steel products increased to 8.72 million tons, a rise of 40,900 tons week-on-week. However, the total inventory of these products decreased by 331,000 tons to 9.5954 million tons [4]. - The apparent consumption of rebar is estimated at 2.4713 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 131,600 tons week-on-week [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes an increase in profits for plate products, with long-process rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins changing by 0 CNY/ton, +23 CNY/ton, and +69 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous week [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: 1. General steel sector: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel 2. Special steel sector: CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co., and Xianglou New Materials 3. Pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Wujin Stainless Steel, Youfa Group - It also suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy stocks like Fushun Special Steel [5].
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250521
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:49
Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: May 21, 2025 [2] - Research team: Black Metal Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Conditions on May 20 Futures Contracts - RB2510 closed at 3058 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with a trading volume of 1,285,345 lots and an open interest of 2,160,329 lots [5] - HC2510 closed at 3202 yuan/ton, down 0.37%, with a trading volume of 435,507 lots and an open interest of 1,350,873 lots [5] - SS2507 closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.00%, with a trading volume of 133,035 lots and an open interest of 128,677 lots [5] - I2509 closed at 725 yuan/ton, up 0.28%, with a trading volume of 323,225 lots and an open interest of 734,150 lots [5] Black - series Futures Positions - For I2509, the top 20 long positions were 460,413 lots, a decrease of 5,618 lots; the top 20 short positions were 478,665 lots, a decrease of 741 lots; the long - short difference was - 4,877 lots, with a deviation of - 1.04% [8] Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On May 20, major iron ore overseas quotes were flat compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 5 yuan/ton [9] - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values continuing to decline and the D value continuing to rise; the red bar of the daily MACD indicator has been narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [9] News and Policy - On May 20, the 5 - year LPR dropped 10 basis points to 3.5%. For a 1 - million - yuan commercial loan with a 30 - year term and equal - principal - plus - interest repayment, the monthly payment will be reduced by 56 yuan, and the total reduction over 30 years will be 20,000 yuan [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to promote urban renewal, increase central investment support, and issue the 2025 central budget investment plan for urban renewal by the end of June [10][11] Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Supply: Last week, shipments from Australia and Brazil increased, with the total shipments from 19 ports rising by 283.6 tons to 2706.1 tons. The 45 - port arrivals decreased again, but overall remained at a medium level. It is expected that the arrivals will remain at a medium - high level in the near future, and iron ore supply will remain loose [12] - Demand: Last week, the daily average pig iron output decreased slightly to 244.77 tons, and the output of the five major steel products also declined slightly. However, considering the increasing profitability of enterprises, it is expected that iron ore demand will still be strongly supported in the near future [12] - Inventory: The number of days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and port inventory decreased slightly to 141 million tons, the lowest since mid - March 2024. It is expected that the room for further decline in port inventory is limited [12] Overall Outlook - After the Sino - US Geneva talks, market sentiment was significantly boosted. During the 90 - day suspension period, "rush - to - export" and "rush - to - re - export" phenomena will continue. It is advisable to consider buying hedging or investment strategies on dips [13] - However, the rumor of "crude steel production control" and the long - term nature of the September contract may suppress raw material prices and limit the rebound space of iron ore prices [13] Group 4: Industry News - In May, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, down from 3.6% last month; the 1 - year LPR was 3%, down from 3.1% last month [14] - From January to April, the national general public budget revenue was 8061.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. The national tax revenue was 6555.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the non - tax revenue was 1506 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.7% [15] - From January to April, the stamp duty was 161.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.9%. The securities trading stamp duty was 53.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 57.8% [15] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the spread between high - grade ore and PB powder, the spread between low - grade ore and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the September contract, etc. [20][21]