消息很快传到大西洋彼岸。11 月 19 日，美国财长贝森特在一场公开讲话中罕见地提高分贝，点名对欧盟成员国发出警告，称"跨大西洋同盟应在这一刻体 现出来"，并强调欧洲购买中国主权债券"不符合盟友精神"。言辞中不乏不满甚至焦躁。 这一天，美国的情绪，被许多外媒形容为"彻底破防"。 对中国而言，本次在卢森堡发行的欧元主权债券属于第二期，分为 4 年期与 7 年期，各 20 亿欧元。 财政部原本设定的目标十分务实：稳定发行、合理定价，吸引欧洲长期机构投资者。但事实证明，市场用行动给出了更热烈甚至近乎"抢货"的回应。 2025 年 11 月的欧洲，天气渐冷，但金融市场却被一股来自东方的热度点燃。 当地时间 11 月 18 日，中国财政部在卢森堡大公国完成了 40 亿欧元主权债券的发行。原本，财政部内部对发行规模和市场反应都有清醒估计：40 亿欧元， 只要顺利认购完成，就算达成既定目标。 然而市场随后爆发的热情，完全超出中国方面的预期。 短短几天时间，欧洲乃至全球主要资本机构纷纷下单，最终认购意向金额突破 1000 亿欧元——足足是发行量的 25 倍。这份如同"火山喷发"般的订单簿，让 国际市场一片哗然。 选择卢森堡， ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has decided to suspend all non-USD denominated metal options trading, reflecting the fragility of the current international pricing system dominated by a single currency and market [1][2] Group 1: LME's Decision and Market Impact - The LME's announcement on November 3 indicated that non-USD denominated metal options contracts, such as those in euros and renminbi, lacked liquidity and had higher maintenance costs than benefits, leading to the suspension effective November 10 [1] - Following the announcement, there was a significant market reaction, with Shanghai Futures Exchange's night session metal contracts hitting the upper limit while LME's USD contracts faced rare declines, creating the largest price differential since 1987 [1][3] Group 2: Background and Challenges to the USD System - The decision comes amid unprecedented challenges to the USD system, including a US federal debt exceeding $38 trillion and real yields on US Treasuries failing to cover inflation costs, undermining the attractiveness of USD assets [2] - There is a noticeable trend of foreign central banks diversifying their reserve assets, with increased demand for gold and new multi-lateral payment mechanisms reflecting concerns over the existing clearing system [2] Group 3: Implications for Global Metal Trading - The LME's actions may strengthen the USD's position in the short term but also accelerate the fragmentation of the global metal trading system, increasing exchange rate risks and transaction costs for companies in Europe and Asia [3] - Japanese and German manufacturers, for instance, will face heightened complexity in risk management as they shift to USD contracts, dealing with both metal price and USD exchange rate fluctuations [3] Group 4: Opportunities for Chinese Enterprises - For Chinese companies, the LME's announcement presents both challenges and opportunities, as they may face a shortage of hedging tools and rising costs in the short term [3] - However, China's significant consumption of global copper and control over 55% of electrolytic aluminum capacity provide a natural anchor for renminbi pricing, alongside improvements in financial infrastructure and regional cooperation initiatives like the Belt and Road [3] Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, attempts to enforce a single currency have often backfired, as seen in the 1960s with the UK's strict foreign exchange controls, which inadvertently facilitated the rise of the USD [4] - The overemphasis on the USD system may lead to strong alternative demands, indicating that the transformation of the global metal trading system will require a new balance deeply connected to the real economy [4]

黄金这头沉睡多年的巨兽，正在重新苏醒。 过去这段时间，全球金融市场最戏剧性的一幕，就是黄金的价格， 几天前，金价刚被压到 4000 美元下方不久，现在又重新攀升到 4150 美元附近。 美国原本以为凭借自己多年积累的金融力量，可以把黄金死死按住，可结果已经摆在眼前，全球央行正 在疯狂增持黄金，金价越压越涨，他们越想打压，需求越汹涌。 美国已经彻底失去了对黄金价格的掌控。 这些年的金融体系就像一张巨网，美国利用美元结算、美债信用、美联储加息周期牢牢掌控全球流动 性，可现在，这张网正在出现撕裂。 10 月的金价暴涨阶段，中国央行亮出了一份很关键的数据。 央行黄金储备在 10 月份达到了 7409 万盎司，比上月多了 3 万盎司，实现 连续第 12 个月增持黄金。 不只我们在增持，全球央行几乎都在加速布局黄金。 据统计，全球央行在 9 月共买入了140 万盎司黄金，比 8 月份激增 79%，这已经不能用"避险"来解释， 是一种 系统性再配置，从美元资产，向黄金迁移。 更关键的是，全球央行持有的黄金总值，已经超过美债。 黄金储备总值达到4.7 万亿美元，而全球央行持有美债仅有3.9 万亿美元。 这是过去几十年从未出现 ...

据彭博社报道，美联储再降25个基点，然而其主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上的讲话仍留有余地，表示：对12月如何行动，我们仍然存在很大分歧。 此举在特朗普看来，依旧是"不过瘾"，依旧是鲍威尔在强硬反对自己的政策，而这次对其感到失望的，不仅仅是特朗普。PFL的首席投资策略分析师也认 为：市场对鲍威尔没表明12月预期降息感到失望。 换言之，现在鲍威尔的降息，是建立在对美国市场的经济压力中，而非配合特朗普的种种施政方案，而货币与财政两个政策各打各的，对特朗普与美国而言 意味着什么？ 特朗普访日期间，再次凸显出自己嘴上没把门的毛病，表示要任命财政部长贝森特任命为美联储主席。尽管这件事后续被美国政府否决了可能性，但体现出 特朗普对"换帅"这件事的执念越来越深。 本次白宫与美联储的斗争，并非是鲍威尔本人是鹰派还是鸽派的区别，而是美联储能不能保住自己独立性的存亡之战。 美联储危机？ 众所周知，不同于其他国家，美元具备"世界货币"的职能，因此美联储必须具备一定的私人银行性质的金融属性，才能让各国放心去持有、交易甚至是以此 为自身货币的锚点。 尽管在这期间，美元也是服务于美式霸权，作为美国政府来操控"美元潮汐"，进行收割的强有力工具。然 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Bund Summit will be held from October 23 to 25 in Huangpu District, Shanghai, focusing on the theme "Embracing Change: New Order, New Technology" [1] Group 1: Global Trade Dynamics - Jeffrey J. Schott, a senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, emphasized that the core challenges of the global trade system are "trust" and "enforcement" [3] - Schott highlighted the importance of maintaining open communication channels between the U.S. and China, stating that any policy changes by either country will have profound impacts on the global economy [3][4] - He noted that the uncertainty in bilateral relations increases operational costs for businesses and creates political risks, advocating for a reduction in uncertainty to facilitate normal trade and investment [5] Group 2: Trade Agreements and Multilateralism - Schott discussed the evolution from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) to the World Trade Organization (WTO), pointing out that the lack of trust in enforcement is a significant barrier to multilateral negotiations [5] - He described the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) as a beneficial complement to the WTO, arguing that the U.S. withdrawal from TPP was a mistake [5] - Regarding China's potential accession to the CPTPP, Schott characterized it as a cautious and long-term process, with slow progress expected in the short term [5] Group 3: Role of the WTO and U.S. Dollar - Schott denied the notion of WTO marginalization, asserting that it still plays a crucial role but requires updates to reflect contemporary technological and trade dynamics [6] - He differentiated between the quantity of sanctions and their policy impact, stating that current sanctions do not significantly threaten the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [6] - Schott pointed out that the U.S. often overlooks the significant contributions of service trade, which is a vital component of modern globalization [6]

最近几天，黄金又破了纪录。 朋友圈有人晒收益，群里有人喊「要降息了」，新闻标题也铺天盖地：「鲍威尔暗示转向」「美元走 弱」「流动性回归」。 可问题是，很多人看完觉得：信息量巨大，但完全听不懂。 为什么降息这件事，会让黄金先笑？为什么美联储一个动作，全世界都得屏息？「降息」，被反复提起 的词，到底是什么？ 智远不讲术语，也不谈图表，就从你手里的那点黄金、那笔存款、那张信用卡开始，看清「降息」这件 事，究竟在改变什么。 01 先说结论，降息本质，是让钱更便宜。 钱也有价格，这个价格就叫「利率」。利率高，借钱贵；利率低，借钱便宜。当美联储宣布降息，意思 就是：我打算让全世界的借款成本，通通下降一点。 这听上去像一件好事。 因为企业贷款更容易了，消费者买房、买车、刷卡也更轻松，仿佛整个经济系统被重新「点燃」了一 样；可是，钱变便宜那一刻，也意味着钱开始「不值钱了」。 我们可以换个角度理解。 假设你是银行，把钱借出去一年，本来能赚 5% 的利息；现在美联储降息，只能赚 3%。那你会干嘛？ 要么不借了，要么去找收益更高的地方。于是，资金开始流动。 所以，钱，就像水。 利率，就是水流的坡度。坡一旦变缓，水就会往别处流，这， ...

Group 1 - The rapid development of AI technology in China has raised concerns in the U.S. about losing its leading position in the field [1][4] - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the need for the U.S. to win the "AI race" against China, advocating for a global technology system based on American standards [1][3] - Huang stated that the U.S. should ensure its companies have access to advanced NVIDIA technology and chips, similar to how the world operates under the U.S. dollar system [1][3] Group 2 - NVIDIA's performance forecasts do not include revenue from the Chinese market, indicating that any future gains from China would be considered additional profits [3] - The U.S. government has implemented strict export controls to curb China's chip development, impacting NVIDIA's ability to sell certain products to China [3] - Chinese companies are actively developing domestic AI chips to compete with NVIDIA, with Huawei recently announcing a roadmap for its Ascend AI chips [3] Group 3 - The U.S. government's broad application of national security concerns and export controls is disrupting market order and damaging global supply chain security [4] - China advocates for a collaborative approach to AI development, emphasizing shared benefits rather than competitive confrontation [4]

Group 1 - The reliability of the US dollar system faces systemic challenges over the next 20 years, with its global dominance likely to weaken [1] - Trust in the dollar is eroding due to policy uncertainties, including unpredictable tariffs and fiscal imbalances, which undermine the pricing anchor of dollar assets [1] - The US's unilateral withdrawal from international agreements and threats of debt default challenge the foundational contract of US monetary hegemony established post-World War II [1] Group 2 - The dollar's status as a core safe asset is being questioned, with the US national debt expected to exceed $44 trillion by 2025, leading to a downgrade in sovereign credit ratings [1] - The proportion of North American importers refusing to accept dollars from overseas suppliers is projected to rise from 23% in 2024 to 60% [3] - The share of the dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased to 57.4% as emerging economies accelerate their divestment from US Treasury bonds [3] Group 3 - The trend towards de-dollarization is irreversible, with predictions that the dollar's hegemonic status may end within 20 years [5] - The dollar is transitioning from being viewed as a "risk-free asset" to a "risk asset," prompting investors to diversify into alternatives like gold and the renminbi [6] - The internationalization of the renminbi is gaining momentum, with cross-border payments in renminbi expected to increase by 23% in 2024, surpassing the dollar as the primary currency for cross-border transactions [3]

黄金价格倒是很坚挺，一度冲到2450美元，这说明全球的聪明钱都在悄悄地给美元体系投不信任票。地 缘冲突、美国自己那还不完的债，都让大家觉得还是抱着金疙瘩睡觉才踏实。 美元这么强势，全球的钱都往美国跑，对我们A股肯定有影响。流动性紧张了，那些纯靠概念炒作的股 票就危险了。 这时候，就得看我们自己的企业争不争气，有没有真正的核心技术和盈利能力，这才是硬道理。 联储主席鲍威尔警告说资产估值太高，泡沫吹得有点离谱。这话一出，意味着以前那种靠印钱就能躺着 赚钱的日子，彻底结束了。 为什么美联储敢这么硬气？因为美国经济现在很奇怪，一边是就业市场看着还行，失业率不高，另一边 是通胀死活降不下来。这就给了鲍威尔底气，把利率一直挂在高位，摆明了就是要先摁死通胀，哪怕误 伤经济也在所不惜。 这种"更高更久"的利率环境，对全球资产就是一场大洗牌。那些靠着PPT和梦想撑起来的美国科技股， 好日子到头了。以前资金泛滥，什么故事都能炒上天，现在水龙头一关，大家才发现谁在裸泳，资金都 跑去买那些真正能赚钱、有分红的实在公司了。 全球资本市场的大退潮，才刚刚开始。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalating financial rivalry between China and the United States, particularly in the context of recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and subsequent actions by China and Japan [1][3]. - China has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with a total reduction of $53.7 billion (approximately 382 billion RMB) in the past four months, indicating a strategic shift in its foreign asset management [3][5]. - Japan's unexpected decision to gradually sell its exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) is seen as a major disruption, potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and reflecting a shift in Japan's monetary policy due to persistent inflation pressures [5]. Group 2 - The article notes that the recent phone communications between U.S. and Chinese leaders suggest a potential thaw in relations, yet the financial sector remains a battleground, with China actively diversifying its foreign exchange assets and increasing gold reserves [3]. - The U.S. is facing dual pressures from both China and Japan, with the prolonged intervals in trade negotiations indicating a need for the Trump administration to pivot from confrontation to pragmatic cooperation to alleviate economic pressures [5]. - The ongoing financial rivalry is poised to reshape the global economic landscape, prompting countries to closely monitor developments and adjust their economic strategies accordingly [5].