Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the gold and silver markets showed significant upward trends. The outlook for the precious metals market in 2026 remains optimistic. The continued fiscal expansion of major countries, the expected further decline of the US dollar, and the existence of stagflation risks in the US may further support the investment demand for gold. The industrial and investment demand for silver may also remain strong [2]. Summary by Directory Part I: Review of Precious Metals Market Gold Market Review - **Historical Gold Market Review**: Gold has experienced three major bull markets in the past 60 years. From 1971 - 1980, the price rose from $35/ounce to $850/ounce, a nearly 24 - fold increase. From 1980 - 2000, it was a bear market. From 2001 - 2011, the price soared from $255/ounce to $1920/ounce, a 650% increase. From 2016 - 2025, it entered a new bull market [6]. - **2025 Gold Market Review**: Affected by factors such as the implementation of the US tariff policy, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical crises, the London spot gold price rose from $2610.85/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $4500/ounce at the end of 2025, a cumulative increase of over 70%. The SHFE gold futures also showed a similar trend [13]. Silver Market Review - **Historical Silver Market Review**: Over the past 60 years, international silver prices have fluctuated significantly. From 1971 - 1980, it soared from $1.5/ounce to $49.45/ounce. From 1980 - 2000, it plummeted. From 2001 - 2011, it rose from $4/ounce to $49/ounce. From 2021 - 2025, it was driven by multiple factors to break through $80/ounce [18]. - **2025 Silver Market Review**: The London spot silver price rose from $28.91/ounce at the end of 2024 to over $80/ounce at the end of 2025, with a maximum annual increase of over 170%. The SHFE silver also showed a similar upward trend [23]. Part II: Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors on Precious Metals Prices Impact of the US Economic Situation on Precious Metals Prices - **Impact of the US Interest - Rate Cut Cycle**: The expectation of the US interest - rate cut cycle is one of the underlying logics supporting the sharp rise in precious metals prices. In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, weakening the yields of traditional assets and increasing the attractiveness of gold [31]. - **Impact of the US Economy**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a certain growth rate, but the "Big and Beautiful" tax and expenditure bill worsened the medium - and long - term fiscal prospects, consolidating the bullish trend of gold [33]. - **Impact of the US Dollar Index Trend**: The US dollar index has a negative correlation with precious metals prices. In 2025, the weakening dollar index supported precious metals prices, but in 2026, its support may weaken [49]. Impact of Central Bank Gold Purchases on Precious Metals Prices - In recent years, global central banks have continuously increased their gold reserves. In 2025, central banks' gold - buying pace accelerated in the third quarter. In 2026, the pace of central bank gold allocation may slow down [51]. Impact of Geopolitical Crises on Precious Metals Prices - Geopolitical conflicts such as the Middle East situation, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Palestine - Israel conflict have increased market uncertainty, leading investors to turn to gold for risk - aversion. They also affect the supply and demand pattern of gold [56]. Part III: Analysis of Precious Metals Supply and Demand Gold Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: In the first three quarters of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 271.782 tons, and imported raw material gold production was 121.149 tons. The global total gold supply in the first three quarters was 3717.4 tons [59]. - **Demand Analysis**: The global total gold demand in the first three quarters of 2025 was 3717.4 tons, showing a slight upward trend. China's gold consumption decreased by 7.95% year - on - year [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: In 2025, SHFE gold inventory continued to rise, while COMEX gold inventory remained stable after an initial increase and then gradually declined slightly [65]. Silver Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver supply in 2025 will increase by 2% year - on - year to 1030.6 million ounces, mainly due to a 2% increase in mined silver [69]. - **Demand Analysis**: It is expected that the global silver demand in 2025 will decrease by 1% year - on - year to 1148.3 million ounces. Industrial demand will decrease slightly, while investment demand will increase by 7% [75]. - **Inventory Analysis**: SHFE, COMEX, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories all showed significant fluctuations in 2025 [78]. Part IV: Arbitrage and Position Analysis of the Precious Metals Market Gold Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Domestic Gold Spot - Futures Arbitrage Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE gold futures active contracts was mostly negative, with occasional positive values presenting arbitrage opportunities [88]. - **Gold Inter - Period Arbitrage Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE gold futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large declines presenting arbitrage opportunities [91]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio Analysis**: In 2025, the gold - silver ratio fluctuated sharply, and its future direction is difficult to judge after breaking through the previous range [95]. - **Analysis of SHFE Gold Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE gold futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased with the rise in gold prices [97]. Silver Market Arbitrage and Position Analysis - **Silver Basis Analysis**: In 2025, the basis of SHFE silver futures active contracts was mostly negative, with large positive spreads appearing at the end of the year [106]. - **Silver Inter - Period Spread Analysis**: The inter - period spread of SHFE silver futures active contracts and continuous contracts was mostly positive, with occasional large fluctuations [108]. - **Analysis of SHFE Silver Positions and Capital Inflows**: In 2025, domestic institutional net long positions in SHFE silver futures showed fluctuations, and the inflow of funds increased significantly with the rise in silver prices [111]. Part V: Analysis and Strategies of Precious Metals Options - The implied volatility of gold and silver options has increased in recent years. The put - call ratio of gold options indicates a bullish market, while that of silver options shows more fluctuations, especially increasing when the silver price rises sharply [121]. - Different options strategies can be considered according to different price and volatility expectations, such as buying at - the - money call options, selling out - of - the - money put options, selling strangles, and buying straddles [122]. Part VI: Seasonal Analysis of Precious Metals - Based on a five - year seasonal analysis, precious metals have a relatively high probability of rising in March, April, and October and a relatively high probability of falling in June [137]. Part VII: Outlook on Factors Affecting Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Technical Analysis - **Prediction of the Fed's Interest - Rate Cut Rhythm in 2026 and Its Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2026, which is beneficial to precious metals prices [146]. - **Orientation of US Government Policies in 2026 and Their Impact on Precious Metals Prices**: The US economy is expected to grow, and the government will maintain a high fiscal deficit rate. The new Fed chairman may be more dovish, which is conducive to the rise of precious metals prices [150]. - **Impact of Gold Supply - Demand Balance on Gold Prices**: In 2025, gold investment demand increased significantly. In 2026, the gold market outlook remains optimistic, and the strategic value of allocating gold is still stable [151]. - **Technical Analysis of Precious Metals Price Trends**: Technically, COMEX gold has strong support at $3500/ounce and $4000/ounce, and COMEX silver may have strong support at $50/ounce and $35/ounce [155]. Part VIII: Outlook on Precious Metals Prices in 2026 and Strategy Recommendations - In 2026, the global macro - game pattern remains unchanged. The continuous expansion of fiscal deficits in major economies, the Fed's interest - rate cuts, and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to support precious metals prices. Buying on dips can be considered as a trading strategy [160].

【大河财立方消息】2025年12月30日盘中，在岸人民币对美元一度升至6.9960，升破7.0关口，创2023年 5月17日以来新高。 责编:李文玉 | 审核:李震 | 监审:古筝 在此之前，12月25日，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.0大关，为15个月以来首次。 对于本轮人民币升值的原因，市场普遍认为，主要还是被动升值，美元整体偏弱，美元指数出现明显下 跌，跌幅逼近10%，叠加国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升，整体维 持较强韧性。 中银证券全球首席经济学家管涛认为，近期人民币升值缘于短期利多因素占据上风，并非意味着升值新 周期的开启。综合来看，明年人民币汇率大概率不会出现单边走势，更可能围绕7反复波动。人民币汇 率最终走势将主要取决于三大因素：中美两国经济恢复的相对强度、美元利率与汇率的变化趋势、中国 对外经贸关系的演进及国内经济恢复情况。市场不应过度执着于对具体点位的猜测，也不应形成单边升 值或贬值的线性预期，汇率双向波动将成常态。 ...

近日，离岸人民币对美元汇率一度升破"7"整数关口，市场掀起热议。 12月25日盘中，离岸人民币对美元汇率续创15个月以来新高，升破7.0元关口。同时，在岸人民币兑美 元升破7.01元关口，现报7.0068，创2024年9月27日以来新高。 自2023年5月以来的两年半多时间里，人民币对美元汇率只在2024年9月25日短暂进入过"6"字头，当时 离岸人民币汇率盘中最高触及6.9949。自2025年4月以来，人民币兑美元持续走强，累计升值约6%。 本轮升值原因 对于本轮人民币升值的原因，市场普遍认为，主要还是被动升值，美元整体偏弱，美元指数出现明显下 跌，跌幅逼近10%，叠加国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升，整体维 持较强韧性。展望未来，短期内人民币对美元汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在2026年保持温和升 值。 据同花顺统计，今年以来美元兑人民币离岸下跌4.5%，在岸下跌3.83%。同期，美元指数则创下10%的 跌幅。 对于近期人民币汇率的变化，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，美联储降息之后，美元指数持续下 行，带动包括人民币在内的非美货币普遍升值。 企业结汇需求增加助推人民币汇率 ...

值得一提的是，人民币升值将对资本市场形成积极影响。短期内，股市表现可能会获得提振，使得以人 民币计价的资产出现同向升值。 （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 据21世纪经济报道，对于本轮人民币升值的原因，市场普遍认为，主要还是被动升值，美元整体偏弱， 美元指数出现明显下跌，跌幅逼近10%，叠加国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币对美元汇 率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。 展望未来，短期内人民币对美元汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在2026年保持温和升值。 12月25日，截至10:40左右，离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0大关，最高触及6.9985，为2024年以来首次。此 外，在岸人民币兑美元升破7.01关口，创2024年9月27日以来新高。 ...

记者丨曾静娇 叶麦穗 编辑丨吴桂兴 12月25日，截至10:40左右， 离岸人民币兑美元升破7.0大关 ，最高触及6.9985， 为2024年以 来首次。 此外，在岸人民币兑美元升破7.01关口，创2024年9月27日以来新高。 据21世纪经济报道，对于本轮人民币升值的原因， 市场普遍认为，主要还是被动升值，美元 整体偏弱 ，美元指数出现明显下跌，跌幅逼近10%，叠加国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流 入等，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。 展望未来，短期内人民币对美元汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在 2026年保持温和升 值。 值得一提的是，人民币升值将对资本市场形成积极影响。 短期内，股市表现可能会获得提 振，使得以人民币计价的资产出现同向升值 。国际投行高盛曾就美股做过一个复盘研究，显 示汇率上涨0.1个百分点，股票估值则提升3%~5%。 【详情】 （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） 出品丨21财经客户端 21世纪经济报道 科技新贵为何扎堆去中东 揭秘年内72单重大重组失利，半导体赛道失败率高 道指、标普创新高，德纳维制药深夜狂拉38%，金银走势分化，钯金大 ...

人民币兑美元中间价报7.0392，上调79点，升值至2024年9月30日以来最高，升幅创2025年8月27日以来 最大。 12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元升破7关口，为2024年以来首次。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 对于本轮人民币升值的原因，市场普遍认为，美元整体偏弱，美元指数出现明显下跌，跌幅逼近10%， 叠加国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币兑美元汇率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。短期内 人民币兑美元汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在2026年保持温和升值。 展望后续汇率走势，明明表示，从政策层面看，稳汇率的目标或在于引导市场预期，防止汇率市场形成 单边一致性预期并自我强化。往后看，预计2026年人民币有望温和升值，但汇率中枢破"7"的行情或需 要内外因素的进一步共振。王青指出，从各类影响因素上看，预计短期内人民币还会处在一个偏强运行 状态。在市场情绪偏高带动下，升值"破7" ...

对于本轮人民币升值的原因，市场普遍认为，美元整体偏弱，美元指数出现明显下跌，跌幅逼近10%， 叠加国内权益市场表现亮眼吸引外资流入等，人民币兑美元汇率稳中有升，整体维持较强韧性。短期内 人民币兑美元汇率仍将处于偏强运行状态，并有望在2026年保持温和升值。 人民币汇率升值"破7"的可能性大 过去近一个月，人民币对美元汇率强势升值，引起市场广泛关注。究其原因，美元指数走软为人民币汇 率的潜在升值创造了较为友好的外部环境，内部中国经济的韧性与吸引力构成了坚实的基本面支撑，叠 加年底临近或有结汇需求释放，均支撑人民币汇率走升。 来源：市场资讯 12月25日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0392，上调79点，升值至2024年9月30日以来最高，升幅创2025年8 月27日以来最大。 展望后续汇率走势，明明表示，从政策层面看，稳汇率的目标或在于引导市场预期，防止汇率市场形成 单边一致性预期并自我强化。往后看，预计2026年人民币有望温和升值，但汇率中枢破"7"的行情或需 要内外因素的进一步共振。王青指出，从各类影响因素上看，预计短期内人民币还会处在一个偏强运行 状态。在市场情绪偏高带动下，升值"破7"的可能性比较大，但接下 ...

（1）人民币供需关系：年底是季节性结汇旺季，此外在出口保持韧性的背景下，今年银行代客结汇规 模始终处于较高水平，人民币单边升值趋势得到确认后，会进一步强化结汇需求，形成稳定买盘支撑； （2）美元指数影响：12月以来美元指数下跌1.5%，而人民币兑美元升值幅度约0.9%，可见近期人民币 被动升值的成分偏高； （3）中间价引导作用：简单考察中间价与即期汇率之间的差值，我们可以发现，今年一季度和贸易摩 擦后逆周期因子在人民币快速贬值期间适时发力，后续又适时减弱发力强度，而12月以来中间价已经持 续高于即期汇率，有意加力引导人民币减缓升值速度； （4）宏观预期因素则尚无明显数据支撑。 【导读】离岸人民币兑美元一度升破7.0关口，最低报6.9999 来源：中国基金报 记者 泰勒 人民币汇率涨势不断，12月24日晚间，离岸人民币兑美元一度升穿7.0关口，最低报6.9999。 华创证券分析了人民币汇率升值背后的原因。 人民币汇率涨势不断，12月24日晚间，离岸人民币兑美元一度升穿7.0关口，最低报6.9999。 华创证券分析了人民币汇率升值背后的原因。 （1）人民币供需关系：年底是季节性结汇旺季，此外在出口保持韧性的背景下 ...

美联储降息叠加扩表，引发美债收益率全线走低，美元指数下跌，国际金价周四（12月11日）大涨超过 2%。此外，白银期货价格延续强劲涨势，金融机构继续看好白银价格明年的上涨前景，截至收盘，纽约商 品交易所明年3月交割的白银期价收于每盎司64.592美元，涨幅为5.84%。 来源：央视财经 编辑：苏昊 编审：李雪 贵金属方面，美联储降息叠加扩表，引发美债收益率全线走低，美元指数下跌，国际金价周四大涨超过 2%。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所明年2月交割的黄金期价收于每盎司4313.0美元，涨幅为2.09%。 此外，白银期货价格延续强劲涨势，受供应短缺、现货库存告急以及全球绿色化转型推动工业需求猛增， 金融机构继续看好白银价格明年的上涨前景，白银期价周四大涨，再创收盘历史新高。截至收盘，纽约商 品交易所明年3月交割的白银期价收于每盎司64.592美元，涨幅为5.84%。 ...

周四(12月4日)亚市盘中，COMEX白银期货窄幅震荡上涨，最新COMEX白银价格报58.98美元/盎司，上 涨0.08%，截至发稿comex白银价格最高触及59.23美元/盎司，最低下探至58.77美元/盎司，目前来看， comex白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡整理。 【要闻速递】 ADP报告显示，美国11月私营部门就业减少3.2万，远逊于前值的修正后4.7万增幅，也逊于市场预期的 0.5万增幅。此数据强化了美国劳动力市场正在降温的迹象，并加大了市场对政策利率下调的押注， CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员目前押注美联储下周降息25个基点的概率已从一周前的71%大幅升至 接近89%。短期支撑银价，不过目前尚未出现明确的突破迹象，因此维持区间震荡，等待突破为主。 美元指数周三下跌0.45%，收报98.87，盘中低见98.82，为10月29日以来最低。在ADP就业报告公布 后，美元短暂扩大跌幅，这与市场猜测哈西特接任美联储主席并推动更多降息有关。美国财长贝森特表 示，对明年经济前景乐观，但鉴于住房等领域疲软，仍需降息，这些因素共同打压美元。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 3月白银期货多头在短期技术面占据明显整体优势 ...