Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, which may lead to a stalemate in the upcoming meeting on December 9-10, particularly after recent hawkish comments amid persistent inflation above target levels [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - Recent comments from Federal Reserve officials have shifted towards a more hawkish stance, reducing hopes for further easing of policies in December [1]. - The September employment report showed mixed results, with job growth exceeding expectations but an increase in the unemployment rate to a four-year high, contributing to the Fed's internal divisions [1]. - New York Fed President Williams suggested there is still room for further rate cuts to bring the benchmark rate closer to neutral, which increased the likelihood of a December rate cut from under 40% to over 70% [1][2]. Group 2: Voting Dynamics and Potential Outcomes - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of 12 voting members, requiring a simple majority (at least 7 votes) to pass decisions, but current sentiments indicate only four votes in favor of a rate cut and six against [2]. - If a tie occurs, it is unclear how the Fed would proceed, as there are no established rules for handling a tie, which could lead to confusion regarding the decision-making process [4][5]. - Historical precedents show that the Fed has never faced a voting tie, and any potential tie could lead to maintaining the current interest rate until a subsequent meeting [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increased dissent among its policymakers, with a notable shift from a consensus-driven approach to individual voting tendencies as the December meeting approaches [1][3][5] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - There is a growing division among the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with 5 members indicating a preference to maintain interest rates unchanged next month, creating a near-even split [3][10] - The recent comments from New York Fed President Williams have raised expectations for a rate cut in December, with futures indicating a probability of over 60% for a cut, up from below 30% [3][12] - The increase in dissenting votes this year marks a significant change, as no policy decision has received unanimous support since June [7][11] Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between supporting a weak labor market and controlling inflation, compounded by delays in key economic data releases due to government shutdowns [4][12] - The uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy decisions is a common characteristic, making it difficult for policymakers to gauge the current state of the economy [12] Group 3: Historical Perspective on Dissent - The current level of dissenting votes is higher than in recent history, with some members expressing that this is a healthy development, reminiscent of periods in the 1980s and 1990s when dissent was more common [11][9] - The shift towards a more cautious stance among previously dovish members indicates a potential change in the overall approach to monetary policy [10][11]

来源：宏观对冲陈凯丰Kevin - 尽管由于政府停摆导致数据收集工作延迟，政府就业数据在年底前可能仍不明朗，但投资者预计劳动 力市场趋势将逐步恢复正常，而非崩溃。然而，昨日公布的就业数据仍具有一定的滞后性，这应该可以 缓解投资者对劳动力市场状况迅速恶化的担忧，并增加美联储下月维持联邦基金利率不变的可能性。不 过，在12月10日美联储年内最后一次会议召开之前，政策仍存在一定程度的不确定性，这可能会使投资 者保持谨慎。当然，我们认为美联储对明年的展望和利率预测可能比12月的利率决议本身更为重要。 -美国经济当月新增就业岗位11.9万个，我们认为，就业增长分布较为均衡。虽然该报告仅反映了一个 月的改善数据，但我们认为这仍然令人鼓舞。值得注意的是，该报告的扩散指数（衡量新增就业岗位数 量与减少就业岗位数量之比）大幅跃升至55.6（8月份为49.0），这是自3月份的51.6以来首次超过盈亏 平衡点"50"，也是自2月份的56.2以来的最高水平。 -结论：美国消费者总体上保持谨慎，但并未出现消费回落，我们认为这可能预示着即将到来的假日购 物季将迎来利好消息。 -盈利更新：标普500指数成分股公司第三季度财报已发布约95% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to oscillate with supply contraction and weak demand in the short - term, but with long - term positive consumption expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [4][5] Summary According to the Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract declined with a weekly change of - 1.43% and an amplitude of 1.59%, closing at 85,660 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's October meeting minutes showed significant differences among officials regarding the October rate cut [4] - **Domestic Situation**: China's new LPR remained stable for the sixth consecutive month, but there is a possibility of a decline in the future [4] - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate spot TC index is at a low negative level, indicating tight raw material supply. Due to tight copper ore supply and concentrated smelter maintenance, refined copper supply may contract. Downstream开工率 only rebounded slightly after falling in October, and the high copper price made downstream buyers cautious, resulting in only a small increase in spot market trading activity and a slight reduction in social inventory [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of November 21, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 155 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 85,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,240 yuan/ton, and the open interest was 190,218 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 2,075 lots [11] - **Spot Prices**: As of November 21, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 85,815 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 190 yuan/ton [13] - **Cross - Period Quotes**: As of November 21, 2025, the cross - period quote of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 30 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [13] - **Copper Premium and Position**: As of the latest data, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 50.5 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.5 US dollars/ton. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was - 23,557 lots, an increase of 148 lots from last week [22] 3. Option Market - As of November 21, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract was close to the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option open interest was 0.781, a decrease of 0.0099 from last week [27] 4. Upstream Situation - **Copper Ore Quotes and Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area weakened, and the crude copper processing fee remained flat. As of the latest data, the copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 76,180 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 640 yuan/ton, and the southern crude copper processing fee was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [30] - **Imports and Price Differences**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.4515 million tons, a decrease of 135,600 tons from September, a decline of 5.24%, and a year - on - year increase of 5.93%. As of the latest data, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 2,687.82 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 765.37 yuan/ton [36] - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 530,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,000 tons [41] 5. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of October 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.204 million tons, a decrease of 62,000 tons from September, a decline of 4.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.89%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of October 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 323,144.718 tons, a decrease of 50,930.86 tons from September, a decline of 13.62%, and a year - on - year decline of 16.32%. As of the latest data, the import profit and loss was 567.7 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 771.88 yuan/ton [51] - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data, the total LME inventory increased by 21,700 tons from last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 12,239 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 11,026 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 192,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,400 tons [54] 6. Downstream and Application - **Copper Product Production and Imports**: As of October 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.004 million tons, a decrease of 228,000 tons from September, a decline of 10.22%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons from September, a decline of 10.2%, and a year - on - year decline of 13.73% [60] - **Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.63% and 9.94% respectively. As of October 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were - 2%, - 13.5%, - 6%, - 2.7%, and 1.7% respectively [64] - **Real Estate Investment and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of October 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 14.7% and a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 386.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [71] 7. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of August 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 256,500 tons [76][77]

分析称，即将公布的通胀和就业报告对于塑造美联储利率路径预期至关重要，这些数据很可能打破近期 的波动区间。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月14日电（王姝睿）美元本周表现疲软，市场焦点集中于美联储政策及12月议息会议前 的美国经济数据。美国结束历史性政府停摆，即将发布的数据可能带来上行或下行意外，交易员保持谨 慎，避免在市场波动性全面回归前建立大规模头寸。 经济迷雾难以快速消散 随着美国政府机构恢复运转并开始发布积压的经济数据，市场可能结束近期的平静状态，进入新一轮波 动周期。 美国银行指出，美国政府"开门"后，外汇市场波动性即将回归。ICE美元指数与两年期利差的关系显 示，当前美元对全球利率的敏感度已达到第一季度以来最高水平。这意味着当美国重启经济数据发布 后，由于市场对美联储与主要海外央行利率路径的预期分化，美元很可能出现大幅波动。外汇交易商通 常更青睐利率更高、回报更丰厚的货币。 "随着数据发布恢复正常，美国利率差异波动性将从近期低位回升。"策略师称，"这使得政府停摆结束 后即将公布的美国经济数据更具市场影响力。" 具体时间表尚不明确。参照2013年美国政府停摆经验，非农就业报告在政府重启5天后发布，本 ...

Group 1 - The focus of the market has shifted to the release of delayed economic data following the end of the U.S. government shutdown, which will impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in December [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the schedule for the release of the third quarter GDP revision and PCE data, with the GDP revision set for November 26 at 8:30 AM EST [1] - There is uncertainty regarding the release of some labor data, particularly the October Consumer Price Index, as the Labor Secretary indicated that the September employment report has been collected but not yet processed [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will have access to complete data on September employment, inflation, retail sales, and the initial third quarter GDP before the December 9-10 meeting, depending on the timely release of the October and November employment reports [1] - The final value of the third quarter GDP is scheduled for release on December 19 at 8:30 AM EST, and the October international trade report will be released on December 4 at 8:30 AM EST [1]

"随着政府重启数据发布，美国国债投资者正为更大波动做准备，"荷兰国际集团资深欧洲利率策略师 Michiel Tukker在客户报告中表示。他补充道，鉴于市场尚未完全确定美联储下一步行动，任何新的通 胀和就业数据都可能影响收益率曲线前端走势。 白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳莱维特周三表示，10月就业和消费者物价指数(CPI)报告大概率无法按时发布，这 让局势更趋复杂。停摆期间，美国国债陷入横盘整理，10年期国债收益率围绕4%关口波动。媒体美国 国债指数在此期间上涨0.4%，延续了2020年以来的最佳年度表现。 不过在政府重启前夕，交易员大举建仓目标为10年期收益率跌破4%的国债期权，押注数据潮将印证经 济走弱趋势。 "在12月利率决议前，唯有实体经济走向和联邦公开市场委员会政策倾向更趋明朗，收益率才能突破当 前窄幅震荡区间，"BMO Capital Markets美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngen周三在报告中写道，"参差不齐的 私营数据让我们对就业市场下行风险的担忧尤为突出。" 周四，美国国债市场大体持稳，但波动率指标显示，随着美国走出史上持续时间最长的政府停摆，未来 数日可能会出现剧烈波动。 数据显示，美国10年期国债 ...

随着美国政府"停摆"临近结束,市场焦点正从政治僵局迅速转向即将重启的宏观经济数据。此次停摆造 成的大量经济数据延迟发布,使投资者短暂失去了政策与市场的导航仪,如今随着政府运作恢复在即,积压 已久的"数据洪流"即将释放,金融市场正进入一个关键的观察窗口。 第三季度GDP初值 —— 预计在停摆结束后约两周发布; 10月就业报告 —— 有望赶在美联储12月会议前夕公布。 鉴于本次停摆时间长、覆盖面广,部分10月数据如CPI、零售销售可能推迟至12月中下旬才能见到,这也 意味着,美联储在12月会议前掌握的经济信息仍将极为有限。 12月利率决议:数据拼图未完待续 在12月9日至10日即将召开的政策会议上,美联储将面临前所未有的"信息稀缺期"。按目前进度判断,决策 者能看到的核心数据主要集中在三方面: 数据堆积后的"洪水闸门" 本轮停摆自10月初持续至今,涵盖了整个10月份的数据收集周期,就业、通胀、零售销售等关键指标被迫 推迟,造成信息真空,随着政府恢复运作,市场预计数据将呈"阶梯式回归": 首波公布 —— 预计首份重要数据将是9月非农就业报告,或在停摆结束后约3个工作日发布; 第二波释放 —— 9月零售销售与生产者物 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial pressure faced by middle and low-income Americans may threaten the resilience of the U.S. economy, despite the benefits that wealthier households gain from the stock market boom [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, indicated that the upcoming interest rate decision in December will involve a "balanced consideration" [1] - The U.S. economy shows signs of resilience, but many Americans are struggling with housing and living costs [1] - There is evidence that middle and low-income families are facing affordability constraints [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - Williams dismissed calls for changes to the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate mechanism [1] - He acknowledged concerns about potential over-investment and stock market bubbles, despite optimism surrounding productivity improvements driven by artificial intelligence [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government shutdown has not negatively impacted the dollar, which has risen, leading to declines in gold and silver prices. The focus is now on the upcoming ADP employment data rather than the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision or the government shutdown [2][4]. Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices fell from around 4000 to a low of 3930, indicating a continuation of the previous downward trend. The market sentiment is cautious, with concerns about further declines [2][4]. - The current outlook for gold is characterized by a low-level consolidation rather than a clear bullish or bearish trend. The technical indicators suggest a potential for continued weakness, with the daily chart showing a bearish trend below the Bollinger middle band [4]. - A potential rebound is anticipated if gold can stabilize above 3975, with targets set at 4000 and 4050. Conversely, if it breaks below 3930, further declines to 3900 or 3880 may occur [5]. Silver Market Analysis - Domestic silver prices also experienced significant declines, with the Shanghai gold reaching a low of 907. The recommendation is to avoid chasing long positions and instead consider buying around 915 for Shanghai gold and 905 for domestic silver [5]. - International silver prices fell but remained around 47.2. A potential rebound is possible if prices can stabilize above 48, with targets set at 49.5 [5]. Oil Market Analysis - Oil prices have shown minor fluctuations, maintaining around 60. The bullish sentiment remains, with a focus on whether the price can break above last week's high of 63, which could lead to a target of 66 [6]. - Domestic fuel oil prices have remained stable, with a potential upward target of 3000 if bullish momentum continues. If not, adjustments may occur, with support seen around 2700 [6].