Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's latest report revises down the market's perception of U.S. employment resilience, indicating a downward adjustment of 910,000 jobs for March 2025, with 880,000 in the private sector [1] - The average monthly job growth from March 2024 to March 2025 has been revised down from 147,000 to 71,000, reflecting a significant decrease in employment growth expectations [1] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve may have anticipated this adjustment, implying that it will not affect the decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] Group 2 - The benchmark revision only reassesses employment stock prior to March 2025, meaning subsequent monthly changes are not mechanically reduced, which may temporarily alleviate concerns about a sudden cooling labor market [3] - There are two critical warnings for policymakers: the negative revisions for 2023, 2024, and 2025 indicate a potential systematic overestimation in the survey framework, and revisions tend to be pro-cyclical, suggesting that if unemployment continues to rise, further significant downward adjustments are likely [3][4] - The report identifies that the birth-death model has consistently overestimated net job additions, leading to an overcount of 256,000 jobs in 2024, and while adjustments were made for 2025, the gap between actual openings and closures remains narrow, indicating potential for continued negative errors [4] Group 3 - The report argues that the lack of empirical support for the impact of illegal immigration on job numbers suggests that the recent decline in immigration may not be the primary reason for repeated negative revisions [4] - Investors should monitor three key developments: the new seasonal adjustment factors to be released in January, updates to the birth-death parameters that will affect job additions post-April 2025, and the downward adjustment in employment numbers that will also impact hours worked, potentially revising Q1 non-farm productivity growth from 1.2% to approximately 1.7% [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Bearish continuation [3] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The consumption peak season in the US has ended, inventories are rising, and attention should be paid to the new OPEC+ production policy. With OPEC+ gradually increasing production, the pressure of crude oil supply surplus is rising, and there is significant downward pressure on oil prices [1][5]. - LPG is affected by the decline in the cost - end crude oil price, and the supply surplus situation persists [1]. - The cost support for L is weakening, but with the approaching of the seasonal peak season in September, the supply - demand pattern will gradually turn to a dual - strong situation [1]. - The cost - end methanol support for PP has improved, but the peak - season demand is lackluster, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose in the medium term [1]. - PVC has weak cost support, a supply - strong and demand - weak fundamental situation, and continuous inventory accumulation [1]. - For PX, the tight supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and the cost support is expected to weaken [1]. - PTA's supply - side pressure is expected to increase in the future, while the demand side shows signs of recovery. The tight supply - demand balance in August - September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [2]. - MEG's supply - side pressure is expected to rise, but the demand side has positive expectations due to the consumption peak season [2]. - Methanol's supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [2]. - Urea's supply is expected to be loose, but the export situation is good, and there are speculative expectations [2]. - Asphalt's cost support is weakening, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - Glass has weak demand support, high enterprise inventories, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [3]. - Soda ash has high inventories, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: Overnight international oil prices declined. WTI dropped 0.77%, Brent dropped 0.90%, and SC dropped 1.67% [4]. - **Basic logic**: The US crude oil consumption peak season has ended, inventories are increasing, and OPEC+ production increase is exerting pressure on oil prices. The price may fall to around $60 in the medium - long term [5]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ may continue to increase production, but there is high uncertainty. Indian crude oil imports have decreased, and US crude oil inventories have increased [6]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of [475 - 490] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market review**: On September 4, the PG main contract closed at 4383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.04% [10]. - **Basic logic**: LPG's price mainly follows the cost - end crude oil price. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but the cost - end still has downward potential [11]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [12]. L - **Market review**: The L01 closing price was 7225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.3% [15]. - **Basic logic**: Cost support is weakening, but with the approaching of the peak season in September, the supply - demand pattern will turn better. Pay attention to inventory destocking [16]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, it will fluctuate weakly. Look for opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of [7200 - 7300] for L [16]. PP - **Market review**: The PP01 closing price was 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.1% [19]. - **Basic logic**: Cost - end methanol support has improved, but demand is lackluster. The supply - demand pattern is loose in the medium term, but there is support at the bottom [21]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Next week, supply will decrease and demand will increase. Look for low - buying opportunities. Pay attention to the range of [6900 - 7000] for PP [21]. PVC - **Market review**: The V01 closing price was 4883 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.1% [24]. - **Basic logic**: Spot prices continue to fall, cost support is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The export situation is not optimistic [26]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Due to low - valuation support, be cautious about short - chasing. Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [26]. PX - **Market review**: The PX11 contract closed at 6878 yuan/ton [28]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side device changes are small, demand is weakening but with improved expectations. The tight supply - demand balance is expected to ease, and cost support is weakening [29]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of [6610 - 6720] for PX511 [30]. PTA - **Market review**: The TA01 closed at 4784 yuan/ton [31]. - **Basic logic**: Recent device maintenance has led to a decline in production, but future supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand side shows signs of recovery. The tight supply - demand balance in August - September is expected to ease in the fourth quarter [33]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, it is weak. Hold short positions carefully and look for opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of [4610 - 4680] for TA01 [34]. MEG - **Market review**: The EG01 closed at 4466 yuan/ton [35]. - **Basic logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased production, and overseas devices have little change. The supply - side pressure is expected to rise, while the demand side has positive expectations [36]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Take profits on long positions on rallies and look for opportunities to short on rallies. Pay attention to the range of [4310 - 4370] for EG01 [37]. Methanol - **Market review**: The methanol main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton [38]. - **Basic logic**: Supply - side pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The cost support is weakening [39]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, the upward movement cannot change the weak situation. Look for opportunities to short on rallies for the 01 contract. Pay attention to the range of [2375 - 2425] for MA01 [41]. Urea - **Market review**: The urea main contract closed at 1746 yuan/ton [42]. - **Basic logic**: Supply is expected to be loose, but the export situation is good. There are speculative expectations [44]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Look for low - buying opportunities for the 01 contract [44]. Asphalt - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: The cost - end oil price may decline in the medium - long term, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Hold short positions [3]. Glass - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: Demand support is weak, enterprise inventories are high, and the supply - demand pattern is loose [3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rebounds [3]. Soda ash - **Market review**: Not specifically mentioned in the given text. - **Basic logic**: Inventories are high, and the supply - demand pattern remains loose [3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Short on rebounds [3].

Group 1 - The non-farm payrolls for August are expected to show an increase of 75,000 jobs, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth below 100,000 [1] - The market is showing signs of fatigue, with initial comparisons of August data likely shifting focus to revisions of June and July figures [1] - Wall Street anticipates the unemployment rate may rise to 4.3%, the highest since October 2021, highlighting a weakening labor market [4] Group 2 - The market widely expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, but this could change if employment improves or inflation worsens [2] - Analysts suggest that adding over 225,000 jobs could lead the Fed to alter its plans, while a disappointing non-farm report may increase bets on rate cuts, potentially even a 50 basis point reduction [2] - Average hourly earnings are projected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year, with a better-than-expected non-farm report likely refocusing attention on wage-related inflation [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [3] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [3] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East provide support at the bottom, but overall, there is great downward pressure [1][5]. - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - end oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for compression below [1]. - L: Cost support improves, and as the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. Consider going long on dips [1]. - PP: Cost support improves, but supply will still face pressure in the future. Although the peak - season demand is starting, the medium - term supply - demand pattern remains loose, with limited upward drive. However, the absolute price is low, so consider short - term long positions on dips [1]. - PVC: The absolute price is low, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. Cost support has weakened, and there is a supply - demand imbalance with high inventory. Consider short - term long positions due to low - valuation support [1]. - PX: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro expectations are loose. Consider holding long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [1]. - PTA: The short - term supply - demand is in a tight balance, and market risk appetite has increased. Consider long positions on dips [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices and look for short - selling opportunities [2]. - Methanol: The fundamentals remain weak, but there are short - term disturbances. Consider short positions on the 01 contract at high prices [2]. - Urea: The domestic fundamentals are loose, but exports are good and there are speculative expectations. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [2]. - Asphalt: The cracking spread and BU - FU spread are at high levels, with high valuations. Maintain a bearish view [3]. - Glass: Supply is under pressure, and demand support is insufficient. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and consider short - term long positions on rebounds [3]. - Soda ash: Supply is expected to remain high, and demand is mostly based on rigid needs. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and consider short - term long positions on rebounds [3] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 2.47%, Brent rose 1.45%, and SC rose 1.28% [4]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, demand support for oil prices weakens, and OPEC+ production increases put pressure on oil prices. Supply is increasing, and demand in India has decreased. Pay attention to the final outcome of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [5][6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the break - even point of new shale - oil drilling at around $60. SC focuses on the range of [490 - 500] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On September 2, the PG main contract closed at 4333 yuan/ton, up 1.58% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China showed different trends [8][9]. - **Basic Logic**: LPG supply - demand contradictions are not significant, and prices are mainly pegged to the cost - end oil price. As the oil - consumption peak season ends and OPEC is still increasing production, the cost end has room to decline. Supply has increased slightly, and demand from some downstream industries has decreased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PG focuses on the range of [4400 - 4500] [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L01 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, and the spot price in North China has stopped falling and stabilized. As the peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some device restarts are planned, and demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [16]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider going long on dips. L focuses on the range of [7200 - 7350] [16]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP01 closing price decreased slightly, and the main contract's open interest increased. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support improves, but supply will face pressure due to device restarts and new capacity releases. Peak - season demand is starting, and inventory has declined from high levels. The medium - term supply - demand pattern is loose, but the absolute price is low [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions on dips. PP focuses on the range of [6900 - 7000] [21]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 closing price decreased slightly, and the spot price in Changzhou remained flat. The number of warehouse receipts increased [24][25]. - **Basic Logic**: The absolute price is low, and the spot price has stopped falling and stabilized. Cost support has weakened due to the continuous decline of thermal coal prices. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and inventory has been accumulating for 10 weeks. Production is expected to increase after some enterprises' maintenance ends [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider short - term long positions due to low - valuation support. V focuses on the range of [4800 - 4950] [25]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price increased, and the PX11 contract closed higher. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side domestic and overseas device changes are not significant. Demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and device maintenance volumes are high. Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, and inventory is still relatively high. Macro factors such as the "anti - involution" expectation in the domestic chemical industry, international geopolitical conflicts, and the expected Fed rate cut in September support the short - term bullish trend [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. PX511 focuses on the range of [6800 - 6920] [29]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA spot price in East China decreased, and the TA01 contract closed lower. The month - spread and basis weakened. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [31]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. Supply pressure is expected to increase in the future. Demand is showing signs of recovery, and downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease in the fourth quarter. Consider long positions on dips due to low processing fees and increased market risk appetite [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions carefully, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. TA01 focuses on the range of [4730 - 4790] [33]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China decreased, and the EG01 contract closed higher. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, and overseas device changes are not significant. Arrival and import volumes are still low. Demand is improving, but market expectations suggest an increase in arrival volumes in the second half of August, increasing supply - side pressure [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions at high prices, and look for short - selling opportunities. EG01 focuses on the range of [4330 - 4390] [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China decreased, and the 01 contract closed lower. The basis and month - spread showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [37]. - **Basic Logic**: Maintenance devices are gradually resuming, and supply - side pressure is increasing. Demand is weak overall, and inventory is accumulating. Cost support has weakened. Consider short positions on the 01 contract at high prices [38][39]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for short - selling opportunities on the 01 contract at high prices. MA01 focuses on the range of [2360 - 2400] [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 29, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong increased, and the main contract closed lower. The month - spread and basis showed different trends. Trading volume decreased, and open interest decreased [42]. - **Basic Logic**: Urea daily production is expected to decline this week but may gradually recover in mid - September. Supply is expected to be loose. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are good. Inventory is accumulating, and cost support is weakening. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [43]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, there is intense long - short competition, with mainly range - bound fluctuations. Consider long positions on the 01 contract at low prices [2].

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is driving funds towards non-yielding gold [1][3] - Uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions are supporting safe-haven gold [1][3] - Despite a mild rebound in the dollar, these supportive factors for gold have largely offset any negative impacts [3] Group 2 - Gold prices have continued to rise for six consecutive days, reaching a historical high and breaking the psychological barrier of $3,500 per ounce [1] - Short-term charts indicate an extremely overbought condition, suggesting that gold bulls should exercise caution before further positioning for an increase [3] - Important U.S. macroeconomic data, including the non-farm payroll report, is set to be released this week, leading investors to potentially adopt a wait-and-see approach [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish Dominance**: PX, PTA, ethylene glycol (MEG), urea [27][30][34][41] - **Bearish Dominance**: Crude oil, LPG, PVC, methanol [1][23][37] - **Sideways with Bearish Bias**: L, PP, asphalt, glass, soda ash [14][19][3] Core Views - Crude oil: Geopolitical disturbances do not change the oversupply situation, and the oil price trend is downward. Short - term geopolitical uncertainties may cause price fluctuations, but the supply - side pressure is increasing, and the price has a large downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][4][5] - LPG: It follows the rebound of the cost - side oil price, but the fundamentals of crude oil are bearish, and there is still room for downward compression. It is recommended to hold short positions [1][8][11] - L: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the seasonal peak season approaches in September, supply and demand will gradually turn into a double - strong pattern. It is recommended to try to go long on dips [14][17] - PP: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply is still under pressure in the medium term, and the upward drive is insufficient. However, the absolute price is low, providing some support. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities [19][21] - PVC: The cost support is insufficient, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. It is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space of the disk is limited [23][25] - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but the macro - environment is expected to be loose. It is recommended to hold long positions and look for opportunities to buy on dips and sell put options [27][28][29] - PTA: Recent device maintenance has led to a significant decline in the operating load. Later, the supply - side pressure is expected to increase, while the demand shows signs of recovery. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [30][32][33] - MEG: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips [34][35][36] - Methanol: The supply - side pressure has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels [37][38][40] - Urea: The supply is expected to be loose, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. It is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] - Asphalt: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - Glass: The supply is under pressure, and the demand support is insufficient. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - Soda ash: The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand is mostly for rigid needs. It is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with Brent rising 0.99% and SC rising 0.14%. WTI had no quote due to the holiday [4] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances increase uncertainties. As the peak season ends, the demand support for oil prices weakens, and the pressure from OPEC+ production increases. The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, while India's crude oil imports decreased. The US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the strategic reserve increased [5][6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the break - even point of new shale oil wells at around $60. It is recommended to try short positions lightly and focus on the SC range of [485 - 495] [7] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 1, the PG main contract closed at 4364 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.05%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4540, 4486, and 4580 yuan/ton respectively [10] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction of LPG itself is not significant, and its price is mainly linked to the cost - side oil price. The geopolitical risk has increased, but the cost side still has downward space. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased, and the port inventory has decreased [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to move down. It is recommended to hold short positions and focus on the PG range of [4370 - 4470] [12] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan. The North China Ningxia Coal price was 7190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 398 [16] - **Basic Logic**: Social inventory has slightly decreased, and the delivery pressure has weakened the price in the North China region. As the peak season approaches in September, the supply and demand will turn into a double - strong pattern. Some devices are planned to restart, and the demand from the agricultural film industry is increasing [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to try to go long on dips and focus on the L range of [7200 - 7350] [17] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6965 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The East China drawn wire market price was 6895 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 1205 [20] - **Basic Logic**: Short - term delivery pressure suppresses the spot price in the East China region. Recent device restarts and new capacity releases will increase the supply pressure. Although the peak - season demand has started, the supply - demand pattern is still loose in the medium term, and the high number of warehouse receipts restricts the rebound space [21] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the low absolute price, it is recommended to try short - term long positions on dips and focus on the PP range of [6900 - 7000] [21] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4907 yuan/ton, a decrease of 39 yuan. The Changzhou spot price was 4700 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 571 [24] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of chlor - alkali is not well - supported, supply is strong while demand is weak, and the social inventory has been accumulating for 10 consecutive weeks. Some enterprises' maintenance has ended, and the export to India is expected to slow down [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The disk is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is recommended to gradually close short positions as the downward space is limited. Focus on the V range of [4800 - 4950] [25] PX - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PX spot price was 7014 yuan/ton, an increase of 125 yuan. The PX11 contract closed at 6966 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [28] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side devices at home and abroad have changed little. The PXN spread is at a relatively high level this year, and the gasoline cracking spread has increased. The demand has weakened but is expected to improve. The PX inventory has decreased but is still relatively high [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions, look for opportunities to buy on dips, and sell put options. Focus on the PX511 range of [6820 - 6950] [29] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 29, the PTA price in East China was 4740 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. The TA01 contract closed at 4784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan. The spot price and basis both weakened. The trading volume and open interest of the main contract decreased [31] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, and many devices are under maintenance. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase later. The demand is improving, and the downstream polyester and terminal weaving operating loads have stopped falling and rebounded. The PTA inventory has decreased slightly but is still relatively high [32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the TA01 range of [4750 - 4810] [33] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 29, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan. The EG01 contract closed at 4474 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [35] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have slightly increased their loads, overseas devices have changed little, and the arrival and import volumes are relatively low. The demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The cost support still exists [35] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold long positions carefully and look for opportunities to buy on dips. Focus on the EG01 range of [4380 - 4450] [36] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 29, the methanol spot price in East China was 2266 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The main 01 contract closed at 2361 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract decreased, and the open interest increased [37] - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side pressure has increased as the domestic and overseas device operating loads have increased. The demand is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating. The cost support has weakened [38][39] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short on the 01 contract at high levels. Focus on the MA01 range of [2345 - 2395] [40] Urea - **Market Review**: The price of the urea contract has changed slightly, and the domestic and international spot prices have been relatively stable [41] - **Basic Logic**: The urea production is expected to gradually recover in mid - September. The domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. The factory and port inventories have been accumulating [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, the long - short game will intensify, and it is recommended to look for low - buying opportunities on the 01 contract [41] Asphalt - **Core View**: It passively follows the rise of the oil price, with high valuation. It is recommended to increase short positions [3] - **Basic Logic**: The cost - side oil price is expected to decline in the medium - long term, and the asphalt raw material supply is relatively sufficient. The spot price in Shandong has decreased significantly, and the basis is at a low level [3] Glass - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The deep - processing orders have improved, and the enterprise inventory has decreased, but the distributor and factory inventories in Hebei have started to accumulate. The daily melting volume is stable, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Soda Ash - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds [3] - **Basic Logic**: The enterprise inventory has decreased for two consecutive weeks, but the absolute level is still high. The upstream operating rate has declined, and the production is expected to remain high in September. The demand is mostly for rigid needs [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that a weak performance in the upcoming August non-farm payroll report will strengthen the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market has shown positive results from a low-position long strategy, with prices rebounding after reaching entry points around 3315-25 USD/oz [1] - There is a strong market expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, exceeding 85%, contributing to a weaker dollar and increased investment in gold due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2] Group 2: Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding, with gold prices operating above the upper band; MACD shows a bullish crossover, while RSI indicates an overbought condition [3] - The 4-hour chart also shows expanding Bollinger Bands, with prices near the upper band; MACD is bullish, and RSI remains in an overbought state, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3450 [3] - The 1-hour chart indicates similar trends, with prices near the upper band and a bullish MACD; however, there is a warning for potential overbought pullbacks, with support at 3300 and resistance at 3450 [3] Group 3: Future Trading Strategies - Aggressive traders are advised to enter long positions near the 3300 USD/oz support after stabilization, while conservative traders should consider long positions around 3270-3280 USD/oz [4] - For short positions, aggressive traders should look to sell near 3450 USD/oz resistance, while conservative traders may consider shorting around 3485-3475 USD/oz [4] - Specific trading recommendations for various gold instruments include light shorting on high prices for futures, buying on dips for linked products, and a dollar-cost averaging strategy for long-term investments [4]

Group 1 - London silver is currently trading above $38.68, with an opening price of $38.55 and a current price of $38.72, reflecting a 0.38% increase [1] - The highest price reached today is $38.78, while the lowest is $38.52, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] - Political intervention concerns arise as President Trump dismisses Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, leading to increased market anxiety and a flow of safe-haven funds into the silver market [3] Group 2 - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming revision of the U.S. Q2 GDP, with an expected growth rate of 3.1% annually, which could strengthen the dollar and suppress silver prices if the data exceeds expectations [3] - Investors are also monitoring the core PCE price index, a preferred inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, with a nearly 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [3] - If the PCE data indicates strong inflation, it may weaken market expectations for a rate cut, potentially putting downward pressure on silver prices [3] Group 3 - The latest analysis indicates that London silver prices have risen, supported by trading above the EMA50 dynamic support level, despite reaching overbought conditions [3] - The RSI shows positive signals, which may limit upcoming price increases, with a focus on the critical resistance level at $38.70 depending on the prevailing bullish trend [3]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral [1] - Sugar: Neutral with a slightly bearish bias [1] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.09% to 66.65 cents per pound, and CF601 decreased 0.32% to 14,075 yuan per ton. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the U.S. weather and drought area changes should be monitored. In the domestic market, sentiment fluctuated, and the Zhengzhou cotton futures price moved lower. After the issuance of 200,000 tons of processing trade import quotas, inventory concerns eased. New cotton supply-demand contradictions are not significant, but there will be pressure from high yields and support from "scrambling to buy" expectations. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and macro and weather changes should be watched [1]. - **Sugar**: Brazil's Conab lowered the 2025/26 sugar production forecast by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons. Domestic sugar spot prices were lowered, and the futures price continued to decline with reduced positions. The double - festival stocking provides limited support, and future import pressure will trouble the market. A slightly bearish and fluctuating view is maintained, and the support at the previous low will be tested. Attention should be paid to the August import data [1]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Cotton**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 45, unchanged; the main contract basis was 1,267, up 33. The Xinjiang spot price was 15,249 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan, and the national price was 15,342 yuan per ton, up 8 yuan [2]. - **Sugar**: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 32, down 3; the main contract basis was 365, up 2. The Nanning spot price was 5,920 yuan per ton, down 30 yuan, and the Liuzhou price was 5,985 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 2. Market Information - **Cotton**: On August 27, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 6,859, down 118, with 2 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were reported, and the yarn and short - fiber cloth load and inventory data were provided [3]. - **Sugar**: On August 27, the sugar spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 14,906, down 409, with 1 valid forecast [3][4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Cotton**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index, with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][9][11]. - **Sugar**: Charts show the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, with data from 2021 - 2025 [14][17]